Survivor Kaoh Rong Week 1 Predictions and Poll

Time for another season of rampant speculation based on our ability to overthink edits and warp our perceptions based on what we WANT to happen. It’s possible that being less invested in this contestants than the ones of the last season will lead to better predictions, but I doubt it. Which might be the only prediction I get right this season.

pr_predictionsbnr_s32

No big write-up this week for our boot predictions, but I’m sure we’ll get back to it soon. On that note, please let me know: did you enjoy the staff chat predictions last season, or were they unreadable? Looking for input so we can decide what we do going forward.

Andy John Emma Mark Matt Readers
Brawn First
Elimination
Alecia Alecia
Alecia Alecia Darnell  Alecia
Brains First
Elimination
Aubrey
Debbie Debbie Debbie Debbie Debbie
Beauty First
Elimination
Caleb  Nick Caleb  Nick Julia
Nick

Survivor Kaôh Rōng Preseason Winner Picks

Now for our preseason winner picks, which… we’ve never gotten right. But, you know, there’s time! We’ve only been doing this for five seasons (this is only the second season for the non-podcasters), so I’m sure the sixth time is the charm. Still, I’d caution against wagering substantial amounts, just in case.

Andy: Here’s been my winner picks so far: Ciera Eastin, Sarah Lacina, Kelley Wentworth, So Kim, Monica Padilla. Each season I think a woman will be able to play a good mix of UTR and timely strategy. Each season I’m aggressively wrong (although Ciera did quite well). Here’s been the winners instead: Tyson – the most alpha of males on the cast, Tony – an absolute destroyer of worlds, Natalie – a reality TV ringer who Amazing Race fans cautioned would annoy everyone, Mike – a Probstian wet dream of a winner, Jeremy – the guy we thought was the clear frontrunner his first season. What do they have in common? None of them are people you’d peg as “crafty under the radar types” going into the season. So I’m done with that. Peter looks and feels like an alpha who will be given enough control early on that he can use it later on and will be able to present himself as such in front of a jury. I’m not saying UTR is dead; but I am tired of trying to make it happen.

John: Michele seems outgoing and fun, and in a season that will seemingly be about massive chunks of the cast succumbing to various tropical ailments that should be useful. Who wouldn’t enjoy a nice pick-me-up after watching a massive infection result in the amputation of a fellow player’s limb? She’s also from the Northeast, which has had a pretty good run of late: Tony, Natalie, and Jeremy (with Tony and Natalie also being from Michele’s home state of New Jersey). And given their proliferation lately, a Harry Potter fan has to win at some point, right?

Emma: I believe I mentioned this while drafting for the fantasy league(s), but I don’t have particularly strong feelings about any of the cast, which makes choosing a winner rather difficult. I would honestly abstain if I thought I could get away with it. But apparently, that “defeats the purpose” and “is a bitch move, Emma” so I guess I’ll pick someone. It’s not like I’m stuck with this prediction forever, right? I guess I’ll just double down on my Champions League pick and go with Jennifer. Even if the Brawn tribes loses early, I think she’ll make it through. This might send me to hell even faster than previously planned, but her addict past could be useful… we saw hints of what Vytas was capable of in Blood vs. Water and as a woman, Jennifer is less likely to be seen as a threat, strategic or physical. But if I was going with my heart, I’d say ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

Mark: Total shot in the dark, but between evacs and a lack of enthusiasm for this season by Probst and CBS, I think a woman wins. And looking at these ladies, Michele fits the “sure, why not” slot. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I’m putting as much effort into these as CBS is in promoting.

Matt: In a season where 80% of the cast gives off strong douche vibes, I have resigned myself to someone with at least a little douche in them winning.  Peter seems fit enough to survive the early game, and while clearly possessing a healthy ego (i mean he is a doctor) I think he is able to hide this a bit.  The one thing that could be his downfall is that he looks like Obama and I bet this cast is filled with Republicans.

Andy John Emma Mark Matt Readers
Preseason
Winner
Pick
Peter Michele
Jennifer
Michele
Peter Jennifer

So there you have it. Make your picks below and don’t be afraid to give your explanation in the comments. We can be wrong together!

If Brawn goes to Tribal Council first, who will be eliminated?

  • Alecia (64% Votes)
  • Cydney (18% Votes)
  • Darnell (6% Votes)
  • Kyle (6% Votes)
  • Jennifer (4% Votes)
  • Scot (2% Votes)

Total Voters: 50

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If Brains goes to Tribal Council first, who will be eliminated?

  • Debbie (37% Votes)
  • Aubry (33% Votes)
  • Liz (10% Votes)
  • Joseph (8% Votes)
  • Neal (6% Votes)
  • Peter (6% Votes)

Total Voters: 51

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If Beauty goes to Tribal Council first, who will be eliminated?

  • Nick (33% Votes)
  • Tai (20% Votes)
  • Caleb (18% Votes)
  • Julia (16% Votes)
  • Anna (8% Votes)
  • Michele (4% Votes)

Total Voters: 49

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Preseason poll: Who will win Survivor: Kaoh Rong?

  • Jennifer (16% Votes)
  • Michele (12% Votes)
  • Anna (12% Votes)
  • Kyle (12% Votes)
  • Liz (10% Votes)
  • Neal (10% Votes)
  • Joseph (6% Votes)
  • Debbie (6% Votes)
  • Tai (6% Votes)
  • Nick (4% Votes)
  • Darnell (2% Votes)
  • Peter (2% Votes)
  • Scot (2% Votes)
  • Julia (0% Votes)
  • Cydney (0% Votes)
  • Caleb (0% Votes)
  • Aubry (0% Votes)
  • Alecia (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 50

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Andy
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Andy

Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
Andy
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  • gouis

    Matt, please justify that Darnell pick. It is baffling.

    • Purplerockmatt

      who usually goes home first? Women, and minorities. Well Darnell is one of those…Plus that tribe has plenty of strength, so i can see them targeting a guy.

      • gouis

        Sekou is the only black guy booted first. And Darnell is no Sekou

        • andythesaint

          And that tribe had to vote for a black person.

          • Barbara Anderson

            #Represent

        • sharculese

          Not that it affects Darnell, but I just did the math and realized Survivor is not doing well with women of color as first boots rights now. It’s either 5 or 6 of the last ten seasons, depending on how you characterize Laura B. and Candice in Blood vs. Water.

          • Other Scott

            It’s been really bad throughout the history of Survivor. Even many of the ones who escaped were targeted early, like Tijuana and Panama Cirie.

          • sharculese

            To be fair, Cirie really should have been the target in that vote, and the only reason she wasn’t is that Cirie is amazing.

          • Roswulf

            Hey, at least they are trying to address the problem by casting fewer women of color than the recent norm this season! Two out of three tribes CAN’T target a women of color first!*

            *Oh god, I’m embarassingly wrong about someone’s race aren’t I?

    • Purple Rock Emma

      lol

      (Gotta love posting from the future!)

    • hornacek

      Yes please justify it. It could never happen.

      Cough.

  • indescribable hat

    They got Taj to come back and they’re putting a woman returnee on a mostly newbies season??

    • andythesaint

      It’s about time.

      (For the record so Hat doesn’t look bad: the poll used to have a typo that has now been fixed).

  • Saturday Evening Palsy

    No way is Nick gonna be the beauty tribe member to go home first! The guys a snake! He’s gonna be the villain this season and probably win it all.

  • turgid_legume

    Even if they radiate douche vibes strong enough to bend the needle of a Geiger counter, I see Nick and Caleb being safe for the first vote. If they lose the first immunity challenge, I think the Beauty tribe is going to vote based on muscle mass.

    My winner pick is Neal. And I say that even after having watched the preview where he’s shown wearing twee ice-cream-cone-print pants and a bowtie. You’re killing me dude.

  • Other Scott

    Based on fantasy league standings, no one has Scot. There’s not a good reason that he’s so underrated other than “athletes have not had a strong history of success” and literally everyone else has major warning flags going off for me anyways.

    So, I’ll basically be like Peter, who’s favourite player is Petebro, and go off the beaten path and pick the guy who’s name is pretty much the same as mine, just not quite to a T.

    • Roswulf

      I think there are other reasons to be skeptical of Scot.

      1. He’s a giant human being, especially height wise. That’s a build with a non-stellar record of coping with the physical strain of Survivor…and this is the season of med-evacs.

      2. He has a history of being a bit of a provocateur. That’s not a huge problem, but his physical traits paint a target on him, and as far as we know his personality will not be conducive to deflecting such attention.

      Still, I agree that he’s at the very least a great value play for Pick 4.

      • itsafuckingSTICK

        Not only is he a giant human being, but he currently appears to be a giant out-of-shape human being.

        • Either way, the muscles existed at one time. Which is probably better than the average person.

          • itsafuckingSTICK

            It could just be the fact that we’re only one episode in, but his tribe seemed to think that his being in the NBA was a total non-issue. I noticed that he declined to say which teams he had played for, though.

    • sharculese

      I just want to make it clear that I don’t agree with your analysis and only liked this post for the pun.

      • Other Scott

        I take likes where I can get them.

  • MrBurkesButtons

    I love how you arrange the columns so Andy always stares incredulously at John’s picks.

    • I think he had to do a mirror image of his avatar to make that happen, because he always wanted his picks to be in the first slot. (But I also love it. It’s very fitting.)

      • andythesaint

        Yep, I had to photoshop it to make it happen. And I went first because of the alphabet. But also, I’d probably do that anyway.

  • Mike Hirsch

    I went with Michele in the “I don’t know, she seems ok” way for my winner’s pick. Alecia, Debbie, and Tai for my boots. Hopefully wrong about Tai.

    • Mike Hirsch

      Oh, and also, I like the staff picks and commentary.

      I can’t be expected to comment on two different things at once, right?

    • I had the same thought about Tai, but I couldn’t bring myself to pick him. If it were him, he might take the crown from Franny as my most beloved first boot.

      • Mike Hirsch

        Franny as in Francheskwa…Fransezsquwa?

  • EmAndScoutInBK

    I’m all about Michele. I was either going with her or Anna, and then I saw Anna post an anti-vaxxer thing, so that tipped me over to Michele. Go Michele. I see her forming alliances pretty easily.

    • Diego Armando

      After watching her video, I thought Anna seems like a good bet and put her in my pick 4 team. Then I learned more about her and yikes. I don’t follow any of these Survivors outside of the show and don’t particularly care about their political affiliation, since that has nothing to do with the game, but Anna seems alarming. I still have her in my team due to laziness, but if she is not in the forefront of the first episode, she is gone.

      • I actually think Anna will keep those things in check. I still think Michele seems to have a more easy-going personality that is likely to win more people to her side, though.

  • sharculese

    I watched the live where it was revealed, and still when I read this I was like “wait, who the fuck is Emily?”

    Also, Emma (are we still calling you that, I’m honestly confused) as the other person who drafted Jennifer… have you seen the previews that make it look like she’s getting medevac’ed immediately?

    • turgid_legume

      That was some gross-ass shit, but I got the impression that after it was out she was back on her feet.

      • Saturday Evening Palsy

        You know what? I went to the grocery store today and noticed that egg prices are even higher!

    • Purple Rock Emma

      Trusting previews is for chumps, and Andy still called me Emma when we met in person so you do you.

      • sharculese

        I normally wouldn’t, but I also got stuck with Alecia in the outcasts league, so I was seriously worried about having both of my picks gone before episode 1 ended.

  • Diego Armando

    I’ll say Neal as my winner prediction. He seems like the kind of person who will make in roads early and people will only realize he is a threat when it is too late to stop him. With Peter, I am uncertain of his actual game skills and if he can make moves without angering the other players. He gives off a very arrogant vibe.

    Liz and Michele seem cool, but I am unsure if they will be able to handle the brutal physical conditions of the season.

    Nick seems like a colossal slimeball, but he could do well. I hope he doesn’t.