Survivor Cambodia Week 8 Predictions and Poll

After a cluster-expletive merge, we dust ourselves off and try to make sense of what’s happening in Survivor: Cambodia.

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Emma: Alright, so it was a crazy merge episode, but do we think it’s going to just be the easy vote of Ciera next week?

John: Nnnnnnooooope.

Mark: Too many people looking to make a move at the moment.

John: Yes and the reason is what they gave us in the preview: Stephen.

Matt: Yeah I think 6 days as a merged tribe mean some people have now sized up where people stand.

Mark: That may include her, but there are other targets to earn Savage’s ire, because he is the new majority ringleader.

John: No. Savage is the front man. Jeremy is the ringleader.

Matt: Correct, John.

Mark: Granted he’s also like Speaker of the Bayon House trying to wrangle factions.tumblr_nxgl806wEB1txhkrbo5_250

Emma: They do think Ciera is dangerous though, it’s not just the last member of a dead alliance thing

Andy: And her performance at TC didn’t make her look LESS dangerous.

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John: Let’s consider who Ciera can pull.

John: Spencer, Kelley, Abi-Maria, Stephen. Any more?

Andy: Could we see a…. dramatic cue… WOMEN’S ALLIANCE!?!

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Emma: We don’t know what her relationship was with Kimmi. She said the reason she voted Savage was she could see Tasha working with her in the future. But can Tasha see that?

Andy: Kelley and Ciera specifically didn’t vote Tasha.

John: Nah. There isn’t enough girl power in this crew to do it. They don’t have the ladyballs.

Emma: They’re called ovaries, John.

John: Ladyballs.

Matt: Where did Ciera say this Emma?

Emma: Twitter

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Andy: Anyway, I don’t think there will be a Women’s Alliance. But it’d be funny if it happened with these women after Shirin and Monica tried and failed to get one going.

John: So let’s say Ciera approaches Stephen, and Stephen is willing to make a move here. The only way it would work is if Stephen convinces the large group to split votes again on Abi-Maria and Ciera.

Andy: It’ll be funny if the Know It All proponent of split votes uses one to sabotage it.

John: Yes!

Emma: Rob would have a field day.

Andy: But I don’t see Stephen willing to betray that many jury members.

John: Almost like he was just waiting for his second chance to try that. Second chance. Second chance.

Andy: Under reported: Stephen is a little weak-willed with the treachery stuff.

John: Stephen seems very convinced that he needs to build a resume this time, though.

Andy: You guys: I’m this close to putting Stephen at zero percent chance of winning.

Words hurt, Andy.
Words hurt, Andy.

Emma: You just want to troll the world, Andy.

John: So if he’s doing this, it would be in a way that would have his group with numbers all the way to the end. So he needs 6.

Andy: I think Stephen’s best opportunity went away when he voted out Kass.

Mark: I think Stephen is going to freak people out with his scheming though. You wondered how Ciera gets the target off of her.

Matt: Okay so according to John, Stephen needs 6. Can he get there?

Andy: Alright, you’ve all convinced me: Stephen Fishbach is going home next week.

Matt: Dammit, that was my prediction!

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Andy: Because, no, he can’t get there.

Emma: Perhaps that means it’s time for everyone to lay out their predictions.

Andy: No one even thought for a minute that Stephen was flippable. He was securely on the bro-out side this week. Which means that no one has a good enough relationship with him for him to work.

Matt: Yeah if Stephen is suddenly up for grabs that will terrify his partners too.

Andy: It’ll confirm everything that has already been laid out in the edit.

Matt: And need I remind you what the Survivor Wiki said about Stephen?

John: Right. I don’t think Stephen can get there.

Andy: He needed to do it this week.

John: We’ve seen that he can’t move Joe. Or Jeremy. Or Tasha.

Andy: He needed to have conversations with old Bayon members Kass and Ciera. But Stephen forgot what it was like at the bottom of the Bayon brotherhood, he big-timed them. This hasn’t been the story of Stephen Fishbach beating Andrew Savage. This has been the story of why he fails. (Which is probably why it’s been loaded to the gills with fail).

Yes, that was a fish pun.

Emma: Booooooooo

Cambodia- Ciera eye roll at tribal council

Andy: Anyone want to argue against this?

Emma: In principle, but I really don’t have anything to back it up.

Matt: This is the argument that it isn’t Stephen: It’s Savage.

Matt: Because the show used this entire episode to set up one character, and that was Savage.

Emma: That has been the trend of episodes in the past.

Matt: And why is it doing that if we don’t think Savage is going to win? Because he is going home.

Mark: Well that was my prediction, but if Joe loses immunity everything holds off a week. And we all know how quickly things can change.

John: Stephen’s arc isn’t one of growth. Spencer’s is. So if a nerd is rising to defeat the alphas, it’s Spencer.

Mark: Spencer + Kelley is a dangerous duo.

Andy: Is it though? Or do we just want it to be?

Matt: Is Spencer’s arc one of growth?

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Andy: Yes.

John: YES.

Emma: I can definitely see Kelley being forgotten as they get rid of Ta Keo people. And then she slips her way through.

Also: seriously, Matt?

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Mark: They got a full minute of hanging out and talking, and both went with the wind, laying the groundwork for some stealth move.

Emma: Yeah, the fact that Kelley got the information that it was Kass is pretty important, I think.

Matt: I mean sure Spencer has upgraded his operating system. He’s running at least Windows 7 right now, but I’m not sure he is getting to Windows 10.

John: They could subtitle this season “The coming of age of Spencer Bledsoe”. That’s how on the nose it’s been with that shit.

Mark: Still don’t think he’s winning.

Emma: Okay Matt, explain it again but try to be a bigger nerd about it.

Matt: I don’t think my analogy is accurate enough to be nerdier about it!

Mark: Spencer is clearly on Linux. But he’s finding his way over to OSX.

Andy: I like Kelley Wentworth as much as the next guy, and was pushing her since before SJDS. But let’s list her Survivor successes thus far:
1. Found an idol
2. ???

John: I think Kelley’s success has been integrating herself into alliances as necessary.

Matt: I think Kelley’s story is so idol centric that I think her only role on this season is to play the idol in a big move and then go home.

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Mark: Kelley has a tight bond with Joe and Keith and Spencer and has never been discussed as a threat. That gets you far.

John: She’s been going where the votes go, and she’s not being targeted for doing so.

Emma:
2. Got in with an alliance when she was on the bottom
3. Joe and Keith may not have been on her sort of side, but they do seem to care for her as an ally.

Andy: So tight that she got to sit there with Kass, Ciera, and Abi while everyone else talked strategy.

Mark: Yeah, but when she gets inevitably targeted she has the upper hand.

Emma: Joe fricken put his game on the line to keep her from being voted out before an immunity challenge happened.

Okay, maybe not on the line. But he definitely put himself out there.

John: I think Joe and Keith were willing to be on her side, but bailed when the numbers went too far the other way. They weren’t risking themselves to save Kass.

Andy: Again, I like her. Still think she’s a potential winner. But let’s cool it with “Kelley Wentworth is dangerous”.

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Emma: Subtly dangerous. Ciera is dangerous for stirring shit up, Kelley is dangerous for sneak attack reasons.

Mark: I still don’t see her as the winner. But she is dangerous.

Andy: And Spencer has yet to influence a critical vote in Survivor.

Mark: Who led the Vytas charge? Shirin?

Andy: Yes.

Andy: Spencer was an important swing vote for all of an afternoon, until Keith took that from him too.

Mark: Could Spencer be HvV Parvati? Very influential but not enough to get a win?

John: In that he gets to the end by being a flirty sexy flirting sexpot?

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Emma: Yes.

John: YES.

Emma: Obviously.

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Mark: All computer programs can malfunction and overcompensate.

I LOVE YOU. AND YOU. AND YOU.

John: NOT YOU, WIGLES.

Andy: I’m willing to say that they COULD be dangerous. Not willing to say that they ARE.

Emma: I think I’m actually in this line.

Andy: So where are we at? Me and Matt say Fishbach, Mark says Savage?

John: I’m going to join the Fishbach majority. I see where the votes are going here.

Matt: Dammit John, stop being such a Keith.

Emma: I’m going with Ciera because SCREW YOU GUYS, STEPHEN’S THE BEST. [sobs]

Andy: Here’s another part of my Fishbach prediction: Ciera throws him under the bus to save herself.

Matt: Ciera would never do that!

John: I’m fine with that. Though I don’t know if it’s necessary. Like Savage won’t take much convincing.

Andy: Ciera THREW HER MOM UNDER THE BUS!!! Did you guys know that?

Matt: Ciera voted out her mom? This is the first time I heard about it

Cambodia- Ciera votes mom edit

Andy: She should’ve voted “Savage (Mom)”

John: Seriously. So disappointed she didn’t.

Andy: John might’ve even become a fan if she did.

John: You know what? I’m actually more on board this season anyway.

Andy: Emma: why Ciera? Because it’s painfully obvious? And maybe we shouldn’t overthink these things?

Emma: I thought I made my reasoning clear: Because screw you guys.

Andy: Getting back to my point of people being willing to punt decision-making: I think a lot of people are thrown by this whole “merge at 13” thing. So they were all like “Kass isn’t me. Not me = good. Let’s do it”.

Emma: No but yeah, we were bound to get an obvious boot eventually. Even Stephen might realize that it’s safer to cull the herd a bit before making a Big Move.

Andy: Like, does targeting Kass and Ciera signal super active game play? Maybe it does? Maybe it’s the recognition that the old “target big threats” dynamic has really served non-threats in the past. Which isn’t so hot if you happen to be a threat.

Matt: Kass is a fucking threat people!

Andy: Well, there’s that.

Emma: I believe Andy is referring to physical threats.

Matt: Andy spends too much time thinking about physical threats.

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Andy: More “stereotypical threat”

Emma: That works too.

Matt: Yeah they aren’t stereotypical threats, but they are threats.

Andy: Because, yes. Ciera and Kass actually are threats.

Matt: If anything I think it speaks well of the game that it has evolved to where we can recognize non-stereotypical threats as threats

Emma: Similarly, a person can be a threat to you rather than a threat to win.

Andy: Mark: why do you think Savage, who just got 9 other people to vote with him, is suddenly going home next week? Where are these votes coming from?

Mark: Wait when did I say Savage?

Andy: Didn’t you?

Mark: No? My original prediction was Stephen

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Matt: I said it might be Savage, but only as a counter to why it might not be Stephen. Because both times I got it right I judged off a preview. So I kinda want to stick to that. But also, Ciera is tempting.

John: So Emma is the only dissenting opinion?

Emma: And only out of pure stubbornness!

John: We’re the 4 out of 5 dentists recommending Crest, and you’re the holdout. RECOMMEND CREST, EMMA!

Emma: COLGATE FOREVERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.

Mark: I just don’t think this is going to be a boring group who just picks off the next in line. Ciera is not long for this world, but I think Stephen’s plan backfires.

Matt: It is weird we are all thinking Stephen right? Like that doesn’t seem the most logical pick.

John: I like Stephen. And I’ve thoroughly enjoyed him on this season. But he’s in a bad spot here.

Andy: No, I legit think that he blew his chance this week. I didn’t come in thinking it was going to cost him this early, but I’ve come around to that.

Mark: Just think, if I’m wrong and Emma’s right, she ties it up. If I’m right, I still win so far.

John: It’s a marathon, not a sprint.

Matt: Ugh Mark is playing this stupid game where he’s nursing his one point lead.

Predictions

Andy John Emma Mark Matt Readers
First
Out
S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_kelly_tKelly S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria S31_spencer_tSpencer  S31_spencer_tSpencer Vytas
Second
Out
S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria   Terry Abi-Maria
Peih-Gee  1024px-Red_x.svg N/A
Third
Out
S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  Kimmi Joe
Jeremy  Monica S31_andrew_t Savage
Fourth
Out
Tasha S31_jeff_tVarner S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria 
Fifth
Out
Kimmi Kimmi Monica Monica
S31_spencer_tSpencer  Monica
Eighth
Out
Tasha Savage
Savage
Kass
Savage
Savage
Ninth
Out
Fishbach
Fishbach
Ciera
Fishbach
Fishbach
Fishbach
Score 0-red 0-red
Preseason
Winner
Pick
S31_monica_tMonica  S31_jeff_tVarner S31_kelley_t Kelley S31_monica_tMonica   S31_jeff_tVarner  S31_kelley_t Kelley
Quarter-
Season
Winner
Pick 
S31_kelley_t Kelley Tasha S31_kelley_t Kelley
Jeremy  Jeremy  S31_kelley_t Kelley

Reader poll

What do you guys think? Check the appropriate button (unless you’ve been spoiled) and leave a comment at the bottom if you’re up for it.

Who will be the ninth out of Survivor Cambodia?

  • Stephen Fishbach (47% Votes)
  • Ciera Eastin (28% Votes)
  • Andrew Savage (15% Votes)
  • Joe Anglim (6% Votes)
  • Abi-Maria Gomes (2% Votes)
  • Tasha Fox (2% Votes)
  • Keith Nale (0% Votes)
  • Kelly Wigglesworth (0% Votes)
  • Kimmi Kappenberg (0% Votes)
  • Spencer Bledsoe (0% Votes)
  • Jeremy Collins (0% Votes)
  • Kelley Wentworth (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 47

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Emma
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Emma

Emma is the token chick of the Purple Rock Podcast. She has watched the show continuously since the second episode and is pretty sure she's never seen the pilot.

Favorite seasons: Heroes vs. Villains, Micronesia, Cambodia, Cook Islands, China, Philippines

Favorite players: Courtney Yates, Parvati Shallow, John Cochran, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Kim Spradlin
Emma
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  • Kemper Boyd

    I’m going to repeat myself from last week. I am so hyped about the this season because I have literally no clue what will happen. I know the early merge helps but I can look at 10 out of the 12 left and see a possible winner. The ones who definetely can’t win are Abi and Wigles.

    • purplerockpodcast

      I don’t know about 10 out of 12. But I’d say easily 4 out of 12, and if I were stretching it I could probably get to 6 out of the 12. Still, half the people in the game still in contention for a win is great!

      • Kemper Boyd

        I think 4/12 have a great shot, the next 4/12 a longer shot, the next 2/12 an extreme long shot and the next 2/12 no shot at all. I think that you can talk out how all but Abi and Wigles win, how likely do I think Keith’s path to victory is? highly unlikely but still at this point possible.

    • Diego Armando

      I am willing to zero percent Stephen and Keith also.

      • Kemper Boyd

        I see Keith’s path and it involves sitting next to Wigles and Abi and being really good with balls.

        • andythesaint

          How would such a final three even happen? Who puts it together? Abi? Like, which of these three has the conversation with the other two about voting at final four? These are fascinating questions.

          • Kemper Boyd

            I’m guessing it gets put together by whoever gets voted out at 4. It’s like a 0.5% chance but it’s not 0 yet. If you ask me if I think someone is definitely not winning, I can only give you Abi and Wigles currently, that’s what I think is exciting. The likelihood of the rest of them varies wildly.

  • gouis

    Feel like the guys are being lead too much by the previews.

    • purplerockpodcast

      Mark’s explicit strategy is to go with what the previews show, because they’ll occasionally be right.

      • Sylvisual

        *My strategy since it’s worked more than once.

        • purplerockpodcast

          It’s a good strategy! It’ll probably give you the most correct picks this season.

      • Barbara Anderson

        Well, the previews did highlight the big role that Chaos Kass would play this week-and they were right.

        • Purplerockmatt

          this might be like blood v water where the previews were weirdly accurate

          • Barbara Anderson

            I rather not have these type of previews. I want some surprise!

    • andythesaint

      I’ve been going against them to no avail. So I’m trying something new.

      Note: I expect to be wrong.

    • Violina23

      If it winds up being an slow-death-march-exit episode for Stephen, the best they editors can do with the preview is try to make it look like Stephen’s Last Stand…which I’m sadly kind of afraid it will be. But I hope I’m wrong…

    • gouis

      Yeah I’m going to say either that or that they saw this boot list.

  • Diego Armando

    I’ve predicted Stephen about every week (except the time I correctly picked Monica) and see no reason to change my strategy now. I kind of hope he will be sent home by Kelley’s idol. I think her idol will be coming into play soon.

  • Roswulf

    I don’t buy that (preview aside) Stephen is in all that bad a spot. Ignoring edit, he has a chance-or-better at final against Wiggles, Abi (this would be the “or-better”), Keith, Tasha (I love Tasha m’self, but she could fatally alienate a majority of jurors at the drop of a hat), maybe Ciera and Kimmy depending on the strength of the bro down. He’s doesn’t need to panic about jury options yet. And there’s no good reason for him to be an immediate target- he’s closely aligned with Jeremy who is running the game, and he is not an immunity or jury threat to the power players (oh man is he not an immunity threat). He can hold on until the Alphas start to naturally crack if he wants to.

    Yes, the preview is bad for our Fish friend. But I feel like this could be the same preview we’d get if we are heading towards a boring vote; bouncing Ciera because she’s on the bottom, or perhaps bouncing Abi because Abi. Even if he doesn’t seriously consider making a move, Stephen is going to be shown angsting.

    And I’d add that Stephen going out as a reprise of the Monica boot would be somewhat anticlimactic for his emotionally supercharged doofus edit. Maybe next week will be firework-y enough to justify it, but the clean version of a Stephen boot (he fishes for the numbers to bounce an alpha, fails, and Jeremy/Kimmy whack him for the fishing) wouldn’t make much narrative sense.

    • purplerockpodcast

      So basically, Stephen would need to join a women’s alliance (plus or minus Keith). But if that’s the scenario (since those are the people he can beat), why would the women keep him?

      You’re definitely right that they might use this same preview to hide a boring vote. Even if this vote is boring, though, Stephen still has a tough path to the finish line.

      • Roswulf

        He doesn’t necessarily have to join a women’s alliance; the season just has to proceed in a wonky enough fashion that a bunch of non-Wentworth women and gangly guys are left standing. There are twelve people in the game- he needs to keep five of them (Savage, Joe, Jeremy, Wentworth, Spencer) away from the finals. That’s not panic button time, especially as those five will eventually start targeting each other.

        My case for Stephen as a potential winner boils down to “He doesn’t have any insurmountable problems (see Abi)” and “Survivor has a lot of randomness to it.” He’s not a likely winner by any means, but he isn’t being forced into an immediate desperation play at 12. And that’s why I think he survives to be more thrillingly humiliated another day.

  • Ethan Kyle

    Fantasy wise, I really want it to be a Joe or Jeremy blindside, personally i’d like to see a Spencer, Tasha or Wigglesworth boot