Time to put an end to my suffering and make our final predictions for Survivor Cambodia. How will the final six place? (Hint: in a different way than I predict). What’s interesting is that my complete failure in predictions has overshadowed the fact that we’ve all sucked. Mathematically, I could still win this thing.
Staff Predictions: Survivor Cambodia Final
Keith narrowly loses immunity and is voted out by people thinking that they might need to win the final four immunity.
It’s the last time idols can be played, and they both are. And what do you know? All the votes were for Kelley and Jeremy! What happens? Do they revote? Fire-making challenge?
I’m guessing it’s a revote with the previously immune remaining so. And I say Spencer is holding immunity, so the vote is between Tasha and Kimmi. With no time to think of alternate reasons, Tasha is voted out as the biggest threat.
Kelley is in trouble, until she wins the final immunity challenge! But rather than target one of the guys, she recognizes that Kimmi poses a bigger jury threat to her. Jeremy is thinking along similar lines. Spencer is happy it’s not him. Kimmi is voted out and the three best players this season make up the final three, for the first time since they introduced the final three.
Spencer doesn’t have Kelley or Jeremy’s support bases. With he and Jeremy splitting votes, that’s enough to cost him.
Jeremy could’ve beaten anybody, except for this configuration. With Spencer pulling away a key vote or two, he doesn’t have enough to win.
Kelley Wentworth wins Survivor Cambodia! In addition to the votes of her base (Kass, Ciera, Abi), Kelley is able to pull swing votes from two of Keith, Kimmi, Kelly, Tasha, Joe based on her idol plays, final immunity win, and getting to make her winners case for two tribals in a row (since she was immune the last one). She wins 5-4-1.
Tasha is the final three goat.
(Sent from an airport)
Since last week’s randomized prediction worked so well, I decided to shuffle the remaining final six up until the result showed Kelley as the winner (because I’ve decided to go all in on that pick) and go from there. Turns out the result I got is something I could see happening.
The moment we’ve dreamed of happens. Kimmi decides to go with Wentworth and Keith after Keith wins immunity and force a tie. Since Kimmi is still assumed to be with what I’m calling the Bayon Four even though Spencer was originally Ta Keo, she is able to let Kelley know that the others are voting for her. So Kelley decides it’s time to finally target Jeremy, and plays her idol. Which causes Jeremy to play his idol. All votes are cancelled. Having seen that someone already flipped, Spencer decides it’s finally time to take out Tasha. Wentworth’s side voted that way as well and it’s enough to send her home.
Stealing a bit of Andy’s thoughts on this one. We all agreed that Kimmi is actually playing a very good game, so why the small edit? Because she must have been the traditional jury threat that we only hear about, without actually seeing their full potential. With so many blindsides this season, her straightforward boot doesn’t come with a narrative that people find worthy.
Jeremy still doesn’t win immunity, but everyone else finally figure out he would beat them in the finals. He is voted out unanimously.
No one is voting for Keith, come on.
The young lad pulls a few votes, but ultimately hurt betrayed too many people to get a majority to write Spencer on their parchment.
Kelley Wentworth on the other hand, gets plenty of votes. Her only regret is making Drew Christy look smart.
Keith – With a split vote and idols cancelling out all the votes (my guess at the history making event in the preview), everyone goes for the obvious threat. Spencer or Jeremy are immune.
Kimmi – Kelley shakes things up and wins immunity, but doesn’t have the numbers since Tasha is against the all-girls thing. Tasha becomes the villain who betrays their final four deal.
Kelley – Tasha’s confessional about bringing the best to the end seals the deal, and the final threat falls.
Jeremy Collins – Before last night, I would have said Jeremy wins easily. Now I think it’s a close vote. But I still think Jeremy squeaks it out. Tasha is the villain no one likes.
Keith‘s run ends as he fails to win immunity and is perceived as the greater threat due to his old man strength (ie immunity prowess). This is the boring vote.
SHIT GETS NUTS! Okay, so here is what happens: Spencer wins immunity, Jeremy, Spencer, Tasha and Kimmi throw their votes on Kelley, Kelley plays her idol and votes for Jeremy, but Jeremy sees Kelley play her idol and he realizes he could be vulnerable and he immediately plays his idol. All votes canceled, we are forced into a revote with Spencer, Jeremy and Kelley immune from the vote. Forced to choose between keeping Kimmi and Tasha, people start discussing Kimmi as a jury threat due to her social bonds and she is the victim of this unprecedented tribal.
This is the toughest one for me to predict, I think there are two super viable outcomes and I cannot tell which one is more likely, but basically I think the choice is between Spencer and Kelley here. I think in the end that Jeremy thinks that Spencer cannot make a different case from himself and regards himself as having stronger bonds than Spencer, whereas Kelley is the one that can go to the jury and plead a case that is different. I think the second idol is also something that will scare Jeremy and Tasha and Spencer and they will worry that the jury will reward her. So Kelley will fall just short at 4.
Easiest prediction of this final 6. Tasha is getting 3rd and she is getting 0 votes. Sorry Tasha.
Spencer will get a lot of credit and will get votes from a number of different people. I think he gets 4 votes. (note if Kelley makes the final instead of Spencer, I expect the same vote 6-4-0)
But Jeremy gets 6 votes and wins. He controls the game throughout, has strong social bonds and has the mic drop reveal of Val’s pregnancy. Very deserving winner.
Alright, let’s try and do six different polls with you guys and see if we get six different people. We probably won’t, which will give you guys an advantage.
- Keith (72% Votes)
- Kimmi (12% Votes)
- Spencer (6% Votes)
- Tasha (6% Votes)
- Kelley (3% Votes)
- Jeremy (1% Votes)
Total Voters: 78
- Kimmi (49% Votes)
- Tasha (25% Votes)
- Keith (12% Votes)
- Kelley (8% Votes)
- Spencer (4% Votes)
- Jeremy (3% Votes)
Total Voters: 76
- Kelley (44% Votes)
- Spencer (16% Votes)
- Kimmi (13% Votes)
- Jeremy (12% Votes)
- Tasha (8% Votes)
- Keith (7% Votes)
Total Voters: 75
- Tasha (56% Votes)
- Spencer (19% Votes)
- Kimmi (14% Votes)
- Kelley (5% Votes)
- Keith (4% Votes)
- Jeremy (1% Votes)
Total Voters: 73
- Jeremy (36% Votes)
- Spencer (33% Votes)
- Kelley (15% Votes)
- Kimmi (7% Votes)
- Tasha (7% Votes)
- Keith (3% Votes)
Total Voters: 73
- Jeremy (45% Votes)
- Kelley (27% Votes)
- Spencer (26% Votes)
- Tasha (1% Votes)
- Keith (0% Votes)
- Kimmi (0% Votes)
Total Voters: 77
Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino