Survivor Cambodia Final Predictions and Polls

Time to put an end to my suffering and make our final predictions for Survivor Cambodia. How will the final six place? (Hint: in a different way than I predict). What’s interesting is that my complete failure in predictions has overshadowed the fact that we’ve all sucked. Mathematically, I could still win this thing.

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Staff Predictions: Survivor Cambodia Final

Andy

Sixth Place
Keith narrowly loses immunity and is voted out by people thinking that they might need to win the final four immunity.

Fifth Place
It’s the last time idols can be played, and they both are. And what do you know? All the votes were for Kelley and Jeremy! What happens? Do they revote? Fire-making challenge?

woo-fight-for-it

I’m guessing it’s a revote with the previously immune remaining so. And I say Spencer is holding immunity, so the vote is between Tasha and Kimmi. With no time to think of alternate reasons, Tasha is voted out as the biggest threat.

Fourth Place
Kelley is in trouble, until she wins the final immunity challenge! But rather than target one of the guys, she recognizes that Kimmi poses a bigger jury threat to her. Jeremy is thinking along similar lines. Spencer is happy it’s not him. Kimmi is voted out and the three best players this season make up the final three, for the first time since they introduced the final three.

Third Place
Spencer doesn’t have Kelley or Jeremy’s support bases. With he and Jeremy splitting votes, that’s enough to cost him.

Second Place
Jeremy could’ve beaten anybody, except for this configuration. With Spencer pulling away a key vote or two, he doesn’t have enough to win.

Winner
Kelley Wentworth wins Survivor Cambodia! In addition to the votes of her base (Kass, Ciera, Abi), Kelley is able to pull swing votes from two of Keith, Kimmi, Kelly, Tasha, Joe based on her idol plays, final immunity win, and getting to make her winners case for two tribals in a row (since she was immune the last one). She wins 5-4-1.

kelley-wentworth-sneakysneaky

John

Sixth Place
Kimmi

Fifth Place
Keith

Fourth Place
Spencer

Third Place
Tasha is the final three goat.

tasha-eye-roll

Second Place
Wentworth

Winner
Jeremy Collins
(Sent from an airport)

Emma

Since last week’s randomized prediction worked so well, I decided to shuffle the remaining final six up until the result showed Kelley as the winner (because I’ve decided to go all in on that pick) and go from there. Turns out the result I got is something I could see happening.

Sixth Place
The moment we’ve dreamed of happens. Kimmi decides to go with Wentworth and Keith after Keith wins immunity and force a tie. Since Kimmi is still assumed to be with what I’m calling the Bayon Four even though Spencer was originally Ta Keo, she is able to let Kelley know that the others are voting for her. So Kelley decides it’s time to finally target Jeremy, and plays her idol. Which causes Jeremy to play his idol. All votes are cancelled. Having seen that someone already flipped, Spencer decides it’s finally time to take out ​Tasha​. Wentworth’s side voted that way as well and it’s enough to send her home.

Fifth Place
Stealing a bit of Andy’s thoughts on this one. We all agreed that ​Kimmi is actually playing a very good game, so why the small edit? Because she must have been the traditional jury threat that we only hear about, without actually seeing their full potential. With so many blindsides this season, her straightforward boot doesn’t come with a narrative that people find worthy.

Fourth Place
Jeremy​ still doesn’t win immunity, but everyone else finally figure out he would beat them in the finals. He is voted out unanimously.

Third Place
No one is voting for ​Keith​, come on.

keith-spits

Second Place
The young lad pulls a few votes, but ultimately hurt betrayed too many people to get a majority to write ​Spencer​ on their parchment.

First Place
Kelley Wentworth on the other hand, gets plenty of votes. Her only regret is making Drew Christy look smart.

Cambodia- Kelley wink and blow kiss

Mark

Sixth Place
Keith – With a split vote and idols cancelling out all the votes (my guess at the history making event in the preview), everyone goes for the obvious threat. Spencer or Jeremy are immune.

Fifth Place
Kimmi – Kelley shakes things up and wins immunity, but doesn’t have the numbers since Tasha is against the all-girls thing. Tasha becomes the villain who betrays their final four deal.

kimmi-no-pumkin-no

Fourth Place
Kelley – Tasha’s confessional about bringing the best to the end seals the deal, and the final threat falls.

Third Place
Tasha

Second Place
Spencer

Winner
Jeremy Collins – Before last night, I would have said Jeremy wins easily. Now I think it’s a close vote. But I still think Jeremy squeaks it out. Tasha is the villain no one likes.

jeremy-finds-idol

Matt

Sixth Place
Keith‘s run ends as he fails to win immunity and is perceived as the greater threat due to his old man strength (ie immunity prowess). This is the boring vote.

Fifth Place
SHIT GETS NUTS! Okay, so here is what happens: Spencer wins immunity, Jeremy, Spencer, Tasha and Kimmi throw their votes on Kelley, Kelley plays her idol and votes for Jeremy, but Jeremy sees Kelley play her idol and he realizes he could be vulnerable and he immediately plays his idol. All votes canceled, we are forced into a revote with Spencer, Jeremy and Kelley immune from the vote. Forced to choose between keeping Kimmi and Tasha, people start discussing Kimmi as a jury threat due to her social bonds and she is the victim of this unprecedented tribal.

Fourth Place
This is the toughest one for me to predict, I think there are two super viable outcomes and I cannot tell which one is more likely, but basically I think the choice is between Spencer and Kelley here. I think in the end that Jeremy thinks that Spencer cannot make a different case from himself and regards himself as having stronger bonds than Spencer, whereas Kelley is the one that can go to the jury and plead a case that is different. I think the second idol is also something that will scare Jeremy and Tasha and Spencer and they will worry that the jury will reward her. So Kelley will fall just short at 4.

Third Place
Easiest prediction of this final 6. Tasha is getting 3rd and she is getting 0 votes. Sorry Tasha.

Second Place
Spencer will get a lot of credit and will get votes from a number of different people. I think he gets 4 votes. (note if Kelley makes the final instead of Spencer, I expect the same vote 6-4-0)

Cambodia- Spencer gets his knee destroyed in the blindfold challenge

First Place
But Jeremy gets 6 votes and wins. He controls the game throughout, has strong social bonds and has the mic drop reveal of Val’s pregnancy. Very deserving winner.

savage-jeremy-five

Andy John Emma Mark Matt Readers
20th
S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_kelly_tKelly S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria S31_spencer_tSpencer  S31_spencer_tSpencer Vytas
19th
S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria   Terry Abi-Maria
Peih-Gee  1024px-Red_x.svg N/A
18th
S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  Kimmi Joe
Jeremy  Monica S31_andrew_t Savage
17th
Tasha S31_jeff_tVarner S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria 
16th
Kimmi Kimmi Monica Monica
S31_spencer_tSpencer  Monica
13th
Tasha Savage
Savage
Kass
Savage
Savage
12th
Fishbach
Fishbach
Ciera
Fishbach
Fishbach
Fishbach
11th
S31_kelley_t Kelley
Fishbach
Fishbach
Ciera
Ciera
Fishbach
10th Tasha
Tasha
Tasha
Kimmi
Ciera
Ciera
9th Joe
Keith
Joe
Joe
Joe
Joe
8th S31_spencer_tSpencer
Kimmi S31_spencer_tSpencer
Joe
Joe
Joe
7th Tasha
Keith S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria
Keith
Kimmi
Keith
6th Keith
Kimmi Tasha
Keith
Keith
Keith
5th Tasha
Keith Kimmi
Kimmi
Kimmi
Kimmi
4th Kimmi
S31_spencer_tSpencer Jeremy 
S31_kelley_t Kelley
S31_kelley_t Kelley
S31_kelley_t Kelley
3rd S31_spencer_tSpencer
Tasha Keith
Tasha
Tasha
Tasha
2nd Jeremy 
S31_kelley_t Kelley S31_spencer_tSpencer
S31_spencer_tSpencer
S31_spencer_tSpencer
Jeremy 
Winner S31_kelley_t Kelley
Jeremy  S31_kelley_t Kelley
Jeremy 
Jeremy 
Jeremy 
Score 0-red 4-green
Preseason
Winner
Pick
S31_monica_tMonica  S31_jeff_tVarner S31_kelley_t Kelley S31_monica_tMonica   S31_jeff_tVarner  S31_kelley_t Kelley
Quarter-
Season
Winner
Pick 
S31_kelley_t Kelley Tasha S31_kelley_t Kelley
Jeremy  Jeremy  S31_kelley_t Kelley
Mid-
Season
Winner
Pick 
Jeremy  Tasha S31_kelley_t Kelley
Jeremy  Jeremy  Jeremy

Reader poll

Alright, let’s try and do six different polls with you guys and see if we get six different people. We probably won’t, which will give you guys an advantage.

Who will finish sixth on Survivor Cambodia?

  • Keith (72% Votes)
  • Kimmi (12% Votes)
  • Spencer (6% Votes)
  • Tasha (6% Votes)
  • Kelley (3% Votes)
  • Jeremy (1% Votes)

Total Voters: 78

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Who will finish fifth on Survivor Cambodia?

  • Kimmi (49% Votes)
  • Tasha (25% Votes)
  • Keith (12% Votes)
  • Kelley (8% Votes)
  • Spencer (4% Votes)
  • Jeremy (3% Votes)

Total Voters: 76

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Who will finish fourth on Survivor Cambodia?

  • Kelley (44% Votes)
  • Spencer (16% Votes)
  • Kimmi (13% Votes)
  • Jeremy (12% Votes)
  • Tasha (8% Votes)
  • Keith (7% Votes)

Total Voters: 75

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Who will finish third on Survivor Cambodia?

  • Tasha (56% Votes)
  • Spencer (19% Votes)
  • Kimmi (14% Votes)
  • Kelley (5% Votes)
  • Keith (4% Votes)
  • Jeremy (1% Votes)

Total Voters: 73

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Who will finish second on Survivor Cambodia?

  • Jeremy (36% Votes)
  • Spencer (33% Votes)
  • Kelley (15% Votes)
  • Kimmi (7% Votes)
  • Tasha (7% Votes)
  • Keith (3% Votes)

Total Voters: 73

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Who will win Survivor Cambodia?

  • Jeremy (45% Votes)
  • Kelley (27% Votes)
  • Spencer (26% Votes)
  • Tasha (1% Votes)
  • Keith (0% Votes)
  • Kimmi (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 77

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Andy
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Andy

Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
Andy
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  • gouis

    Mark and Matt are right on with what I expect.

    • Purplerockmatt

      Mark without ever seeing my picks, snaked me here and now I cannot catch him. Damn you MARK!!!

  • Other Scott

    I don’t know what’s going to happen.

    I actually feel fairly confident about Kimmi and Keith being 5 and 6 respectively. I don’t know what happens from final 4 on though. Something tells me Jeremy and Spencer don’t want to face each other.

    I’m going with Spencer wins immunity, takes his perceived goat Kelley who isn’t a goat at all and beats him.

    Only problem is that doesn’t seem to fit Spencer’s social game narrative. But he’s betrayed so many people on that jury so many times. Gah.

    I’m wrong, scratch all this and my votes above.

    I DON’T KNOW!!!!!!

    • Kemper Boyd

      Isn’t I DON’T KNOW so glorious? the last time it felt really up in the air going into a finale was Philippines when you just didn’t know if it was Denise or Malcolm winning. There are 3 players with legit winner potential and at least 1 who in live play looks like a threat but the edit tells us isn’t.

  • Barbara Anderson

    Is Kimmi getting the traditional “idoled out” edit? I know Savage and Ciera have already been idoled out, but they would be nearly impossible to edit that way.

    • Other Scott

      In short: I very much think so.

  • Brenda4evah

    I still say three eliminations and FTC in two hours is too much.

    Keith loses the immunity challenge–Keith sixth place.

    Kelley wins immunity, Spencer flips to get rid of Jeremy, who plays his idol. Oh snap!–Spencer fifth place.

    “For the first time in 31 seasons” we have a final four, to give whoever would have been voted next a “second chance” (yuck!).

    Going into FTC, Kelley has the votes of Kass/Ciera/Joe/Abi and Jeremy has Savage/Wiglesworth/Stephen/Keith/Spencer.

    Tasha and Kimmi tie for third with zero votes.

    Jeremy has his “Val’s pregnant” mic drop moment and has it all wrapped up…

    BUT WAIT…

    Kelley says “Nine of you voted for me once, but no hard feelings. I’m asking you to write my name down one more time, and this time I WON’T PLAY THIS SECOND DAMN IDOL I DIDN’T EVEN NEED TO USE!”

    That flips Stephen, and possibly Spencer. Survivor Second Chance winner–Kelley Wentworth!

    • andythesaint

      You can rest easy: the final four isn’t happening. Unless someone got the episode write up wrong.

  • Ethan Kyle

    6th: Spencer, Keith wins immunity and Jeremy doesn’t play his idol, Kelley does and she and some combination of Kimmi and Keith vote the young lad out

    5th Tasha/Kimmi Kelley and Keith jump on board with a now alone Jeremy and vote out one of the other women (Likely Kimmi)

    4th: Jeremy doesnt win immunity and the vote is tied between him and Kelley where he looses the fire making challenge

    3rd: Tasha/Kimmi: (Assuming Tasha) Not respected by the Jury due to Tasha’s abrasiveness, only gets Savage’s vote

    2nd: Wentworth: Majority alliance doesn’t particularly respect her, plus Savage and Wigglesworth being bitter, may get Joe, has Kass, Ciera and Abi

    1st: Keith: Gets the Bitter wigglesworth and Joes vote (If he doesn’t vote for Wentworth) Fishback (Could respect his UTR social game as indicated in exit interview) Jeremy (SJDS connection, unless not bitter at Wentworth), Gets Savage vote if 3rd is Kimmi instead of Tasha

    Though in this F3 Keith and Wentworth both have a good shot IMO

  • Roswulf

    Things I’m confident about:

    1. Kimmi does not make the Final 3. There is far too convincing an in-game case for Kimmi winning for her to make the finals with the edit she has received.

    2. Tasha and Keith do not win or come in second. They have both gotten stories sufficient to explain a distant third finish, but the game hasn’t hyped them enough to be either the winner or the main alternative.

    4. If Kelley makes it to the finals, she gets Ciera’s vote. Kelley never burned Ciera, and by voting for the Wentworth Ciera endorses roughly the game that she tried to play.

    5. Uh…full vote cancellation I guess? Nothing else seems to fit the clues.

    Things I’m not confident about:

    Everything else. In particular, the voting breakdowns between any two or three of Spencer/Kelley/Jeremy are a glorious mess. And how wonderful is that for us?

    • Other Scott

      I could still see a winner-Tasha-Keith final 3, which would mean one of them would have to come in second. We don’t have any basis for a loser edit for Kelley, she’d just feel sort of robbed, and Spencer’s edit has been really glowing for a FTC loser as well, though I can see a little clearer how the cogs could turn on that.

    • Roswulf

      I love that I managed to botch even these very limited predictions, with Tasha’s tie for second. This leaves me even more impressed with the editing this season- the Survivor team managed to make a sweep by a likable player with presumptive leadership of the season’s dominant faction from episode one look like a chaotic mess until well into the final. Well done.

  • Mike Hirsch

    What I want to see happen and what I expect to see happen are two very different things. But, I expect some configuration of the 3 K’s to get eliminated, with Kelley likely the last to go due to her idol play. She may outlast Tasha, but somehow I don’t see her beating Jeremy or Spencer. What I’d LIKE to see is Wentworth all the way. Or Keith. Actually, yeah. I’d like to see Keith have to give a final tribal speech. Because how amazing would that be?

  • sharculese

    I don’t necessarily want to be right about this (I mean, I want to be right, let’s be honest, but I take no glee in predicting Jeremy’s downfall), but I still think Jeremy has a lot of potential to shoot himself in the foot at tribal council. He’s not the best at enthusiastically selling his performance, and if the jury is at all waffling, that could bite him in the ass.

  • turgid_legume

    I find it really interesting that nobody has predicted a Spencer win yet. To be clear, I’m not suggesting he wins either, as he doesn’t have any idols on his resume and he’s certainly done his share of flipping, although he might be able to turn that into a positive as a fight from the bottom/outsider narrative, although a cynical jury would still see that as a flipper’s line. But he’s got probably one of the better shots at winning final immunity if he’s still around at that point, and I think he could be very persuasive in front of a jury, and he’s gotten an edit to die for. Again, I think our winner is either Jeremy or Kelley, but it’s surprisingly hard to rule out a Spencer win and I’m loving that the season shakes out that way.

    My heart says Kelley, but my head says Jeremy. I’m not even going to try to work out the full sequence of six.

    • sharculese

      I… have predicted a Spencer win multiple times, in large part because of what you said- I think Spencer has the best shot to sway wavering jurors to his side.

      Although, to be honest, I’m doing it partly to do something different from everyone else and because I like Spencer, not because I think he’s really the winner. I think he’s behind Jeremy and Kelley at this point, but I also think his win would be the most fun of the 3.

      • Brenda4evah

        I think what makes a Spencer win hard to envision is that unlike Kelley and Jeremy, it’s hard to say who’s an automatic vote for Spencer irrespective of the composition of the final 3. Spencer could certainly win over the votes of Kelley or Jeremy-leaning jurors if either doesn’t make it to the end, but I don’t think Spencer himself has a natural constituency the way Kelley and Jeremy do.

        • sharculese

          Oh no, I get that at this point a Spnecer win involves him selling himself a a winner. He has to build a constituency in the way Jeremy and Kelley don’t have to. What I’m saying is that Jeremy has potential to lose a constituency, and, if he does, those votes go to Spencer.

        • andythesaint

          Even against Tasha, Spencer could lose partisans. Savage and Stephen both seem to be really pro-Tasha and one of the reasons JSS voted out Wigles is that she and Tasha had grown closer. Probably not enough support to win (depending on how, say, Kimmi and Joe feel about her), but possibly enough to hurt Spencer.

      • Sylvisual

        My heart wants a Spencer win, but my head says a Jeremy squeaker. Lots of moms on that jury for when he pulls the Val card.

      • Violina23

        I know it’s been touched upon by this podcast (so I’m not going to claim this as a new/original idea) but I think Jeremy is going to play the Val card carefully, and by that, I mean not immediately. I think he is going to time it carefully — wait until Spencer uses the “I love you” story, and THEN he can say “I wasn’t going to bring this up, but….Val’s pregnant and this could change our lives”

        It’s perfect because it looks like it’s in response to Spencer, not a direct jury pandering. Jeremy scores major points and Spencer comes across looking like self-absorbed douche…

        • sharculese

          I’ve been dreading the “Val is pregnant” thing coming out, just because I’m down on the idea of jurors voting on need and I don’t want this of all seasons to be the first where it’s true, but if Jeremy can slip it in that well (phrasing, I know) good on him and I’ll applaud it.

          That said, based on everything we’ve seen of Jeremy I’m not sure he has that much tact.

          • Violina23

            Exactly. I don’t know how I’d feel if I were on a jury after actually PLAYING the game and having a personal stake in it, but I’d imagine that a “do it for me and my pregnant wife” pitch would be eye-roll inducing. But if he throws it in there under the guise of showing up someone else’s theatrics, I’m totally here for that 😉

  • Kemper Boyd

    I can’t begin to work through what I think will happen, I think it’s pretty obvious the double idol play is coming though.
    In terrible (but good for my life) news I have a job interview on Thursday morning so can’t watch the finale live, then I have a job interview Friday morning so may not be able to watch until Friday evening.

  • Violina23

    It’s funny b/c I had been thinking how Spencer’s played a really respectable game — he’s had his back against the wall FAR more than any of the other remaining players and still “survived”. I still feel like I’m kind of rooting for him, but once you guys started talking about the jury, I really can’t see him beating Kelley or Jeremy. Which, I’m totally OK with. Aside from Keith and Tasha, I don’t have an issue with any of the other players winning.

  • Saturday Evening Palsy

    Here’s how it will go down:

    1– Keith wins immunity(4 points). Kelly scrambles to form an all-girl alliance plus Keith to vote out Jeremy. Keith spits into a volcano to show how strong their bond is. Later, Jeremy reminds Keith that Wentworth and her boyfriend Jon voted Wesley out after the whole “stick to the plan” backfire during San Juan del Sur. Keith remembers this just as clearly as if it were just yesterday when whats-her-name’s cousin visited the island so he flips and helps to blindside Wentworth with Jeremy, Spencer and Tasha(4 points). SIXTH: Wentworth.

    2– Spencer wins immunity. The remaining Bayon tribe members have to get rid of one of their own and decide to oust Kimmi because Jeremy found out that her favorite sports team is the New York Yankees so she can clearly no longer be trusted. She is voted out unanimously(4 points). FIFTH: Kimmi.

    3– Jeremy wins immunity(4 points). At this point it is obvious that the humans need to band together and we say goodbye to Spencer-bot. As he slowly sings “Daisy, daisy give me your answer, do” a single tear rolls down his cheek and he short-circuits but finally understands true human emotion. FOURTH: Spencer.

    4– Final tribal council. Jeremy woos the crowd and the unexpected announcement of Val’s pregnancy seems to sway many of the voters. However, the clinching moment comes when Keith explains what he would do with the million: “Hell, I’d just build a big ole farm and let all the old survivor players come ‘n roam free. Just a happy space for everybody. Culpepper, Tom Westman, Tony Vlachos, even ol’ Joe with all that hair. I’d just let them all run free and anyone could just come and watch them. Even you, Jeff *spits*” The Jury is flabbergasted and For the First Time in Survivor History, Jeff Probst will be voting for everybody. Keith gets 8 votes(16 points). THIRD, SECOND: Tasha and Jeremy.

    5– Keith wins and he spits out Jeremy and Tasha’s torches. FIRST: Keith.

    Also those 32 points help me win the SAVAGE League. Sorry, XL Pelican.

    …It could happen.