Survivor Cambodia Official Staff Predictions and Reader Poll – Preseason

Here at the Purple Rock Podcast, we take pride in three things: 1) Our deep and comprehensive knowledge of Survivor, 2) our radio quality good looks, and 3) our startlingly accurate predictions that are never, ever, ever wrong. Never*.

Since we know everyone wants to know what is going to happen on Survivor Cambodia, but don’t want to be so gauche as to actually be spoiled, we will be providing for you our weekly guaranteed predictions**. And with our 1st episode picks we are providing a bonus prediction… our winner pick!

So without further ado, the Purple Rock Podcast Week 1 predictions. Think you can do better? Vote in the poll below.

Andy John Emma Mark Matt Jenn no fucksReaders
Bayon First Boot S31_tasha_tTasha S31_joe_tJoe  S31_kimmi_tKimmi  S31_tasha_tTasha S31_kimmi_t Kimmi   Kass 
Ta Keo First Boot S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_kelly_tKelly S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria S31_spencer_tSpencer  S31_spencer_tSpencer Vytas
Winner Pick S31_monica_tMonica  S31_jeff_tVarner S31_kelley_t Kelley S31_monica_tMonica   S31_jeff_tVarner  S31_kelley_t Kelley

As you can see we think the first boots fall into three categories: 1) women who are perceived to be weak at challenges and abrasive (Abi-Maria, Kimmi), 2) Cagayan threats (Spencer, Tasha), and 3) John’s picks. To listen to Andy and John’s justifications for their picks, listen to their preseason podcast.

Meanwhile our winner picks are operating on the same theory: Monica, Kelley and Varner all enter the game without a huge target on their backs and could navigate their way to a strong position while bigger targets are taken out in the early game. But the great thing about All-Star seasons is that anything can happen and anyone can win***.

Note: If you’ve been spoiled, you can go ahead and fuck off and not vote. There is literally no benefit, as there is no reward for being right and no one knows how you voted. So don’t vote. Seriously. No one is impressed.

Week One: If Bayon goes to Tribal Council, who goes home?

  • Kass McQuillen (47% Votes)
  • Stephen Fishbach (16% Votes)
  • Kimmi Kappenberg (11% Votes)
  • Joe Anglim (9% Votes)
  • Ciera Eastin (6% Votes)
  • Tasha Fox (5% Votes)
  • Monica Padilla (2% Votes)
  • Keith Nale (2% Votes)
  • Andrew Savage (2% Votes)
  • Jeremy Collins (1% Votes)

Total Voters: 122

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Week One: If Ta Keo goes to Tribal Council, who goes home?

  • Vytas Baskauskas (37% Votes)
  • Abi-Maria Gomes (20% Votes)
  • Spencer Bledsoe (15% Votes)
  • Shirin Oskooi (13% Votes)
  • Peih-Gee Law (8% Votes)
  • Kelley Wentworth (2% Votes)
  • Terry Deitz (2% Votes)
  • Woo Hwang (2% Votes)
  • Kelly Wiglesworth (1% Votes)
  • Jeff Varner (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 122

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Pre-season pick: Who will win Survivor: Cambodia - Second Chance?

  • Kelley Wentworth (24% Votes)
  • Jeff Varner (15% Votes)
  • Ciera Eastin (10% Votes)
  • Monica Padilla (9% Votes)
  • Peih-Gee Law (6% Votes)
  • Stephen Fishbach (6% Votes)
  • Tasha Fox (6% Votes)
  • Jeremy Collins (6% Votes)
  • Shirin Oskooi (5% Votes)
  • Spencer Bledsoe (3% Votes)
  • Vytas Baskauskas (3% Votes)
  • Kelly Wiglesworth (2% Votes)
  • Kimmi Kappenberg (2% Votes)
  • Woo Hwang (2% Votes)
  • Keith Nale (1% Votes)
  • Terry Deitz (1% Votes)
  • Abi-Maria Gomes (1% Votes)
  • Kass McQuillen (0% Votes)
  • Joe Anglim (0% Votes)
  • Andrew Savage (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 124

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*All evidence to the contrary is a conspiracy of the saucer people.

** Not actually guaranteed. 

*** Except Keith****.

**** And Woo.

Matt
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Matt

Matt has an irrational dislike for all contestants named Michel(l)e. Also if he ever takes a strong stance about why everyone else is wrong, it is he that is inevitably wrong.

Favorite seasons: Micronesia, Heroes vs. Villains, Palau, Philippines, Pearl Islands, Cagayan
Matt
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  • Sad Lil

    Why did no one pick Lillian to win? :’-(

    • Other Scott

      I was going to, but the poll didn’t have an “other” option.

      I’m expecting the best twist ever – return of the outcasts…again! Lil and Burton enter for their second chance!

      • Kemper Boyd

        This season would become the best one ever if Lil and Burton came back and voted Savage out at the next TC! (Matt is going to hate me).

        • Purplerockmatt

          I almost, almost put Savage down for all of my picks. first boot Bayon: Savage, first boot Takeo: Savage (despite the impossibility), winner: Savage.

          But no I am in total agreement that it would be hilariously cruel if Burton and Lil came back to vote out Savage. I would love it as much as I hated it

          • Kemper Boyd

            I really hope Lil is Savage’s loved ones visit!

          • Purplerockmatt

            that would be the best thing ever

    • Kemper Boyd

      Sad Lil who do you see emulating your role and getting rid of Savage?

      • Sad Lil

        Gotta be Kass!

        • andythesaint

          Just when I didn’t think I could love you more, Sad Lil.

          • Purple Rock Emma

            I don’t know if I agree with it though, since Kass has such a crush on him.

          • Purplerockmatt

            this is after Savage burns her once, then she comes back in an outcast twist and votes him off in revenge

          • andythesaint

            Kass had no problem voting out eye candy Garret tho.

          • Purple Rock Emma

            Why do people keep calling Garret attractive? Have you people seen his face??

          • andythesaint

            I’m just relaying what Kass told us!

  • Kemper Boyd

    We all massively over-rated Kelley last time, have we done it again? Are we looking at Kelley and Monica because we are looking for a Parvati?

    • andythesaint

      Maybe. Yes.

    • andythesaint

      Or an Amber.

      • Purplerockmatt

        and remember that Andrea almost pulled this same trick in Caramoan.

    • Roswulf

      Hey, some of us are looking for an Amber! (Edit note: Ah, too late because of my need to make dumb Woo jokes)

      With a Woo transformed by the bitter defeat at the hands of Tony into a person who actually makes decisions in the Boston Rob role.*

      *This will not happen, but would be funny. To me.

      • Kemper Boyd

        I don’t see an Amber in the women, as Natalie Tannerielli didn’t make it. The joy of the fan vote is there are few to no hangers on.

        • Roswulf

          I think there will definitely be women interested in letting a meatshield take the credit for being a meanie while pocketing a million dollars, if the opportunity presents itself. I don’t think the sincere Amber (LOVE!) is likely, but a strategic variant is on the table for the smart, non-horribly abrasive women like Kelley and Monica

          Though I suppose my beloved Woo is the only player whose Plan A for Victory is to Amber it up.

          • Purplerockmatt

            did you not read the final asterisk?!?

        • andythesaint

          For me, it’s not about hangers on. It’s about who can be overlooked as fame-hungry returnees target the threats they know about and those that will steal their shine. Someone like Monica or Kelley can work in these scenarios, because people aren’t targeting them or are afraid of working with them. This is what helped Amber (and Rob to a lesser extent, given that he was the least accomplished person on All-Stars going in in terms of placement).

          It also got Monica to second place in BvW.

          • Kemper Boyd

            This is true but they’ve had the Amber and Monica, they know about this archetype too so almost like Cirie targeting Courtney because she was the threat to Cirie being the least threatening it’s another thing to look at for reason to vote someone out. The anti-meat shield. Iunno, we’ll see I guess. I picked Monica so I am just as guilty as everyone else, nearly had Wentworth too.

    • gouis

      Yes. And she still might win given how All Star seasons work.

      • Kemper Boyd

        Valid point.

    • Purple Rock Emma

      My theory re: Kelley and Monica is that everyone will think Monica is playing a Parvati game because she’s the flirty one, so they’ll panic and vote her off. Meanwhile Kelley will be playing Parvati’s actual Micronesia game of being charming to just about everyone (give or take an Eliza, although they are friends now) and aligning with women to the end.

      • Kemper Boyd

        Because Monica is so attractive it almost hurts to look at her, like Brenda? I agree if one is going to be accused of the Parvati role it will be her, but it’s been 10 seasons since HvV and now the Tony is the big winner type everyone is afraid of (except Drew Christie).

      • Barbara Anderson

        Monica is also weak at challenges, right?

        • andythesaint

          I barely have any recollection of her.

        • Purple Rock Emma

          Yes, or at least she was in Samoa.

          • Barbara Anderson

            I remember hearing an interview with Dave Ball about how if Galu had went to more Tribals in the pre-merge, she would have been gone.

    • tocantins

      We will see it better when the season start, but I’m also quite skeptical of Kelley. There was a sudden consensus formed after SJdS that she was that great player that never got a chance to shine, but I saw no actual thing that she did to support that.

      • Kemper Boyd

        She did good post-game talk, that is what hyped her. Although she was in a lot of Pick4s.

      • sharculese

        I’m ambivalent on Kelley. On the one hand, Jon and Missy were so tight it was almost inevitable the four of them would control that tribe, and the best result Kelley could hope for was to have it be Keith then Dale who went out and limp into the merge without a lot of friends.

        On the other hand, based on everything we’ve heard, it also doesn’t seem like she had a good sense of how tight they were, which seems like it would be hard to do considering all the other stuff we’ve heard about pre-swap Hunaphu.

  • Diego Armando

    Who thinks Kimmi will win and why? She got 2 votes on the winners survey, so I am genuinely curious.

    • gouis

      I am so out on Kimmi. This cast is pretty flawless and everyone has something interesting to bring to the story, but she’s such dead weight.

      • prettyboyprobst

        I strongly disagree about this cast being almost perfect: 11 of the 20 contestants played in the last 4 seasons, and we’re lucky it’s not 14/20.
        Many of them bring very little to the table and I could do without ever
        seeing them play again(WOO!, Kelley, Keith, Jeremy, Carolyn), but for
        all of them it’s just to early.They’re not just taking spots from imo more deserving players like T-Bird and Jim Rice, I’m afraid it’s also a big detriment to the chances to go far for the players who waited so long to play again, for whom 2nd chance most likely also means last chance.

        I think “new school” has a big advantage going into this season, meaning Kimmi, dead weight or not, is the least of our problems casting wise.

        Still, I’m more than pumped for this season to start!

    • prettyboyprobst

      I don’t see what’s so bad about picking Kimmi as a winner. Sure, she can be annoying and that could be a reason for an early vote-out, but she also has several things going for her that lead me to be one of her (now three) votes: She’s in the right age-bracket to fall in an early alliance on her tribe, has big targets of different types around her (Stephen, Kass, Joe, Andrew, Jeremy and even Ciera and Monica the PTB are wary of inconspicious young women type) and is big, strong and still young enough to be an asset in challenges.
      Then, if she gets to a switch or later the merge and Varner is still in the game, she has so. on the other tribe that is well connected and on record that he genuinely wants to try to get her far into the game(not quite like Brendan rooting for JT to win in Tocantins, but still a big advantage). For other players not alligned with her she’ll probably always pose the least of a threat, putting her in prime position to still be there if so. from a majority alliance wants to shake things up in the late game, respectively still be there when the numbers of her own majority-alliance dwindle down in the endgame.
      People (probabably rightfully) won’t suspect her of plotting against them and forget about her, while they might be on their feet aware of the Parvati-vixen-type and the unassuming Amber-type, making Kimmi one of the few goat-candidates out there.

      And if she gets to FTC, she might actually have a nice resumé and even if she hasn’t, it’s not unlikely she’s sitting there with people who backstabbed their own alliance to bring her as a goat. I don’t see people being as bitter with Kimmi as they are often with Mom-types, but I could see a overall bitter jury, which could help her. On top of that, she has a nice sob-story to her, giving bitter and possibly even neutral jury-members an out for not voting for strategic masterminds, if there even are any players fitting that title in the final three.

      That’s how I justify my pick. However, after listening to many podcasts, I felt there would be no fun in picking one of the favorites(like Tasha, Kelley, Jeremy, resp. Varner as the sole survivor sounds just to good to be true, don’t wanna jinx it! 😀 )
      and with Australia being the first season I ever saw, Kimmi had a built-in advantage when making my choice.
      I’m afraid in the end it’s probably going to be one of the fresh eleven, and that would just suck (except for Kass or Keith, that would be spectacular!).

      • Diego Armando

        Well stated. I did not mean to come across as accusatory. I was legitimately curious since no one seemed to see much in her.

        • prettyboyprobst

          No worries, I didn’t feel accused but I could also see how people could look at these votes as ironic. I guess I got carried away explaining why it’s an (give or take) honest vote, leading to this wall of text.

  • gouis

    I am confused to why Vytas is winning first boot in a landslide. I could see some votes but this seems suspicious given that spoilers exist in the aether .

    • tocantins

      Well, I do hope not. Reading spoilers to go vote on a first boot prediction poll is quite insane. (And I picked Vytas on my League draft.)

    • Kemper Boyd

      I think a lot of us have read the pre-game interviews but no spoilers. Vytas seems to be someone that others are looking at warily so it makes sense he could be first out, like Spencer and Fishbach.

      • andythesaint

        I definitely think there are reasons to choose him. He’s just an odd majority choice. Here’s hoping it’s innocent.

        Because if the results look fishy, we might kill this voting gimmick as it starts.

        • Kemper Boyd

          seems fair. Hopefully we are all just reading the same pre-game stuff and coming to the same conclusions. I guess we’ll know tomorrow. I did not vote for Vytas, I think it’ll be Abi-Maria for her abrasiveness of Spencer as the bigger “threat” than Vytas.

          • purplerockpodcast

            I think I addressed in the podcast that Shirin had mentioned targeting Vytas first. But it’s a matter of if Shirin’s side would have the numbers and the desire to take out Vytas.

            I just hope it isn’t Varner. He’s going to be terrible in challenges, but he’s so fucking fun.

          • DrVanNostrand

            Varner is my favorite. When I re-watched Australia a few years ago, I thought, “How the hell did I forget this guy?” He was my favorite player in Australia, hands down, that second time through.

    • VoicOff

      Suspicious. But let’s remember that sometimes, even when there is spoilery rumours going around, they can be misinterpreted or being totally false. I remember hillariously wrong boot orders predictions for past seasons

  • bder19

    This runs counterintuitive to the goat farmer strategies we’ve seen in recent seasons, but I really do think that Kass and Abi-Maria could go first. They’re only an asset at FTC and in an All-Star season, you can’t afford to be sitting in a weak alliance. You can’t really plan to work with them, just hope they won’t be working against you. In a regular season, I’d drag them along, but I wouldn’t risk it in S31.

  • VoicOff

    Spencer is the first boot
    (Where is Jim, i need someone to upvote that comment)

    • purplerockpodcast

      I got your back on that one.

      (Note: I don’t actually think Spencer is the first boot. I’m just amused by the Jim shout-out.)

      • VoicOff

        I don’t even actually think Spencer is the first boot either, i just want this show to start, so i am bitching to pass time.

        I would be ok with Vytas being booted first i think, as well as Kimmi because i didn’t saw her season and Keith because, well… Keith.

        I hope Kass’s result isn’t a spoiler: she is entertaining.

  • Come On In Here

    Matt, the so called “President of the Andrew Savage Fan Club”, did not pick Andrew Savage to win. Therefore, he should be impeached.

    • Purple Rock Emma

      He claimed he didn’t want to jinx him. Which John disputed, having picked Varner.

      • Purplerockmatt

        if john wanted to really dispute that he should have picked shirin

    • prettyboyprobst

      I’m surprised nobody picked him. I could see him going far, and it seemed like he had a strong base around here.

    • Purplerockmatt

      yep didn’t want to jinx him. no whammy no whammy no whammy no whammy