Survivor Cambodia Week 12 Predictions and Poll

We’re past the double episode, so now we can do more traditional predictions for the thirteenth boot on Survivor Cambodia. Unless you think we’re getting an evac. Then that would complicate matters.

pr_predictionsbnr_480

Predictions

No time for a staff chat this week, so here’s our predictions in a much easier to read format:

Andy: In some ways, it seems pointless to assume that the majority who voted together this week will continue to do so next week, but I will anyway. So first off, I’ll say Joe wins immunity (if not, then ignore all this and just say him). This will prompt the side that voted with him this week to try and finish the job of taking out the other side’s leadership and vote Jeremy. Who will then use his idol and attack the person who just betrayed him: goodbye Spencer.

spencer-looks-up

John: I’m going to say Kimmi goes home this week. I don’t really know why. I’ve been so bad at predictions when I try to apply actual logic that I think I’m better off just picking a name almost at random. As for how it happens?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

joe-vs-kimmi-vs-kelley

Emma: I also think Spencer will go home, but while an idol could definitely be in play, I don’t think it’s the only scenario that sends the young lad packing. At this point, Wentworth and company no longer need Spencer for the majority, and it wouldn’t be the first time a flipper became the flippee. Flipping on Stephen also shows that Spencer is a strategic threat, and good players tend to be inclined to get rid of those. Also if Joe has any game sense (we’ll see!) he’ll want to get rid of his biggest immunity competition.

spencer-shivering-rain

Mark: If Joe loses, then everyone won’t make the same mistake twice. That goes double if he’s the one who’s hit during the challenge injury. (Which, by the way, I don’t see needing a full evac. If Kelly…uh, Worlds Apart, could get hit in the head, Joe or Keith is fine). Joe also said in the premiere that one of his goals is to reach the family visit. Now that he’s done that, his days are numbered. If Joe does win immunity again, I’m going to say Keith. He’s a challenge threat from the rebel alliance, and there has to be a reason we’ve been seeing more and more of him lately.

keith-to-hell-with-joe

And because I can only pick one, let’s say Go Go Joe Joe. Eventually I’ll be right!

Matt: I’m doubling down on Joe. I think he loses again and he goes home and the missed shot doesn’t come back to haunt anyone. Also, he gets cocky after he loses because he survived once without immunity and he think he can do it again and I have no idea what happens if Joe is actually immune again.

joe-uh-no

So I’ll predict in case he isn’t: Tasha goes home. I think she has been on the wrong side often enough, and has displayed this season and in the past how much that bothers her and how little she can hide that annoyance. I think she causes a ruckus and gets sent home. I don’t think there will be an evac, so I won’t predict that. Also I think Jeremy is safe not just because of his idol, but also because I think people can see themselves working with Jeremy in a way that Tasha wouldn’t allow them.

Andy John Emma Mark Matt Readers
First
Out
S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_kelly_tKelly S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria S31_spencer_tSpencer  S31_spencer_tSpencer Vytas
Second
Out
S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria   Terry Abi-Maria
Peih-Gee  1024px-Red_x.svg N/A
Third
Out
S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  Kimmi Joe
Jeremy  Monica S31_andrew_t Savage
Fourth
Out
Tasha S31_jeff_tVarner S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria 
Fifth
Out
Kimmi Kimmi Monica Monica
S31_spencer_tSpencer  Monica
Eighth
Out
Tasha Savage
Savage
Kass
Savage
Savage
Ninth
Out
Fishbach
Fishbach
Ciera
Fishbach
Fishbach
Fishbach
Tenth
Out
S31_kelley_t Kelley
Fishbach
Fishbach
Ciera
Ciera
Fishbach
Eleventh
Out
Tasha
Tasha
Tasha
Kimmi
Ciera
Ciera
Twelth
Out
Joe
Keith
Joe
Joe
Joe
Joe
Thirteenth
Out
S31_spencer_tSpencer
Kimmi S31_spencer_tSpencer
Joe
Joe
question-mark
Score 0-red
Preseason
Winner
Pick
S31_monica_tMonica  S31_jeff_tVarner S31_kelley_t Kelley S31_monica_tMonica   S31_jeff_tVarner  S31_kelley_t Kelley
Quarter-
Season
Winner
Pick 
S31_kelley_t Kelley Tasha S31_kelley_t Kelley
Jeremy  Jeremy  S31_kelley_t Kelley
Mid-
Season
Winner
Pick 
Jeremy  Tasha S31_kelley_t Kelley
Jeremy  Jeremy  Jeremy

Reader poll

What do you guys think? Check the appropriate button (unless you’ve been spoiled) and leave a comment at the bottom if you’re up for it

Who will be thirteenth out of Survivor Cambodia?

  • Joe (46% Votes)
  • Tasha (21% Votes)
  • Kimmi (16% Votes)
  • Spencer (12% Votes)
  • Abi-Maria (2% Votes)
  • Jeremy (2% Votes)
  • Keith (2% Votes)
  • Kelley (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 57

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Andy
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Andy

Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
Andy
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  • gouis

    Really hope it’s Spencer. Never liked him, never will.

    • purplerockpodcast

      You logged into the wrong account, Jim.

      • gouis

        Hey, I’m allowed to dislike Spencer! He doesn’t make me angry or anything, but I’m not really a fan of bratty entitled 22 year old guys, and my experience with people from U. Chicago is not a positive one.

        • Purplerockmatt

          what did I ever do to you?

          • gouis

            Oh did you go to Chicago! My apologizes then, it was only a brief experience.

          • Purplerockmatt

            I did! but I was kidding, Chicago has two type of people, delightful weirdos and the not-so-delightful variety

          • gouis

            Also I only met physics graduate students and professors so my experience was decidedly skewed. Although I stayed at some fancy club/hotel thing on campus (it was an interview) and the staff was soooo stodgy.

          • Purplerockmatt

            oooh i know where you stayed (i think) and yeah that place is somewhere that is very very stodgy. grad students at chicago are their own thing

          • purplerockpodcast

            Oops. Apparently you got here before I even threw up the bat signal.

        • purplerockpodcast

          *paging Matt and Adam B*

      • Roswulf

        We haters of Spencer are legion. LEGION!

        And only 70% of us are Jim.

  • tocantins

    They voted Stephen out last week because the threesome was too strong, and since there is no threesome anymore, I don’t think that Jeremy is in much danger. With no other alliances in sight (since the witches also got destroyed by voting Ciera out), I feel people will start noticing how dangerous people “in the middle” like Kimmi and Keith are, so I predict that they are the next one out. Since I have to choose one, I go with Kimmi.

    About Joe, I think that now that he lost an IC, production will feel better about choosing challenges in which he is not necessarily less-awesome in. (It seems clear to me that Joe is the reason that seemingly all individual ICs so far have been balance ones.) So the next challenge will be a physical one, and he will just laugh at everyone else.

    • Roswulf

      I find Joe charming, but I would absolutely adore Joe making a full heel turn and starting to literally laugh at other players during challenges.

      You fools! You should have voted me out when you had the chance! PEONS, BOW BEFORE JOE THE MIGHTY AS HE LIFTS SOMETHING HEAVY!

      • Purplerockmatt

        he needs to go full Barbados Slim

  • sharculese

    FYI – your Amazon link is recommending that I buy Redemption Island on DVD.

    • purplerockpodcast

      Yeah, Amazon clearly needs to work on their predictive algorithms. Maybe add a line of code like [exclude: utter shit].

      • sharculese

        I’m at about the same place as Andy on Redemption Island (not the greatest season, but enjoyable enough to watch one man make everyone else look like idiots, especially if you go in knowing that that’s what you’re getting) but I can’t fathom being the kind of person who spends money to own a physical copy of it.

        • andythesaint

          Completists. It’s an addiction for some.

          • Mike Hirsch

            Tell me about it. I’m trying to get through Nicaragua right now, at long last. Ugh. Four episodes in and I want to stop watching. Naonka is easily one of the worst people they have ever had on this show. She seems so manufactured in her evil ways, it comes off as just desperate and tacky.

          • andythesaint

            Don’t worry: it gets worse.

            Oh, wait.

          • sharculese

            You do get a brief moment of schadenfreude from the NaOnka stuff if you pay attention; when Jeff announces at the reunion that they changed the rule on quitters on the jury and the audience goes wild, she look looks like she wants to sink into the floor.

            But yeah, it’s pretty grim, and you haven’t seen the worst of it yet. I don’t buy the idea that at least she was a compelling character, because I don’t find her compelling at all. She’s just a bully, and while I would never endorse getting someone fired for being a character on a reality show, it terrifies me that she works with children.

          • Brenda4evah

            Four episodes? You ain’t seen nothing yet. You may find it hard to believe, but there’s significant dip in quality coming after Marty and Brenda go.

          • andythesaint

            It’s so sad that this is true.

          • Mike Hirsch

            I was thinking a good idea for a season of Survivor would be “Ugly Outside vs. Ugly Inside” (note: I actually think this would be a terrible idea), where you could have a tribe of the worst people ever, like Rocky and Lisi and Randy and Dan, and had them take on like, Rupert. And Russell and Dan could keep having to swap tribes.

            Anyway, yes. Nicaragua definitely seems like the worst.

          • Brenda4evah

            Survivor Antarctica: Morons vs. Weaklings vs. Two-Baggers.

          • sharculese

            Farm it out to Danish Survivor, the geniuses behind Survivor: Smart vs. Dumb.

          • Other Scott

            I continue to be amazed this was a real thing.

            And the next year they did a Masters and Slaves thing, which what does that even mean?

    • Diego Armando

      It once asked me to buy South Pacific, which I would rather watch Redemption Island than.

  • Other Scott

    I would have thought Emma would have learned her lesson about picking the same people as Andy last week.

    In this week’s Scott is bad at predictions update, the player I picked to win has now gone home the first episode after I picked them pre-season, quarter season and mid season.

  • Diego Armando

    I will make make 2 guesses. If the trailer is not lying and there is a medivac, Keith is the removed person. We know the person who gets injured is a white male, and he makes the most editing sense of the three candidates.

    If there is no medivac, I say Kimmi goes. The new JAKKS alliance tries to flush the idol and votes Kimmi figuring she does not have it. I do think Jeremy plays his idol next week.

    My hope for next episode is that both idols get played and all votes are negated.

  • turgid_legume

    Here’s to hoping that these last three episodes are just chock full of idol fireworks and other voting shenanigans.

    My boot vote was for Kimmi, simply because of the invisi-edit.

    • Violina23

      They’re creating NO story for Tasha either, post-merge. I can see either one going home this week.

  • Mike Hirsch

    I picked Joe, because I always pick Joe, but I have a feeling his group might stick together and get rid of Tasha. But not enough of a feeling to not pick Joe.

    • Kemper Boyd

      I picked Tasha for that reason.

  • Violina23

    I’m feeling it’s going to be Tasha. Not sure why. And I have her in two fantasy leagues…

  • Brenda4evah

    There are two episodes between now and the finale, and they presumably have to get from eight to five. There’s no need for a double-boot episode in a top-3 season, so I’m afraid I think it’s a medivac.

    • andythesaint

      They could just have more eliminations in the finale instead of the fairly useless challenge for an advantage in the final challenge.

    • gouis

      Do we know what date the finale is on?

      • Purple Rock Emma

        December 16

    • Purplerockmatt

      i have heard that the finale will have 6 not five

  • Disgruntled Goat

    I am seriously dreading tonight’s episode.

    **PREVIEW SPOILER**

    According to the preview, it has my two least favorite things that happen in Survivor: 1) The family visit, and 2) someone getting injured.

    • Roswulf

      Maybe they are pulling a fast one, and the mysterious hands of the injured belong to a family member.

      But yeah, I tend to think we’re headed for a weaker episode. There’s still some brush to be cleared narratively, and injuries and sappiness do tend to suck up time.