Survivor Cambodia Week 13 Predictions and Poll

Here they are, the last time we’ll do one person predictions for Survivor Cambodia. After this week, we’ll have to figure out six placements, which I’m guessing will mean this is the last predictions chat of the year.

pr_predictionsbnr_480

Matt: So what do we think happens?

Andy: I think this is when Joe finally doesn’t win immunity.

Matt: … that was last week Andy!

Andy: Hey, I won’t be wrong. He will not win immunity. This is as close to a correct prediction as I might get.

Matt: Yes, but finally has implied that this is a first and this will be the third time Joe doesn’t win immunity

Andy: It’s the first time I’ve predicted it. But now that he’s gone, I really don’t know what to predict. It’s like this plug was removed from the strategy game.

John: Joe lost two straight immunities. What a loser.

joe-collapses

Matt: So Keith is going to go on that Mike Holloway-esque immunity run right now right?

John: Ok, well that transitions right into my pick: Keith.

Matt: Do we believe what the edit has set up: that it will be the women v the men with Tasha in the middle?

John: Yes, because this serves both of Tasha’s needs: keeping her 3-person alliance with Jeremy/Spencer intact, and keeping the potential women’s alliance strong.

Andy: But does it?

John: No, but she’ll think it does.

Andy: Doesn’t this serve as a betrayal to Jeremy and Spencer?

Emma: According to the random name shuffler, which is probably as accurate as anything, Abi will go home.

abi-trashes-joes-hair

Matt: That honestly isn’t a terrible guess Emma.

Emma: I agree!

Matt: Because if they fear idols, no one will play an idol to protect Abi.

Emma: She’s been targeted twice in a row.

Andy: Emma, I might kill your pick by choosing Abi.

Emma: Dammit, Andy. The shuffler is all I have.

Andy: Maybe Tasha flirts with the idea of going with women’s alliance, but can’t handle Abi’s craziness.

Emma: Also in regards to Keith, I feel like Kelley would be reluctant to get rid of him. Goat potential.

John: To be clear, I think there’s no way Tasha is actually in on a women’s alliance. She should be, but I don’t think she is.

Matt: I think we all agree about that

Andy: I don’t.

Matt: Oh right. Andy doesn’t.

Andy: I think it’s too late in the game for Tasha to be signing up with Kelley and Abi. She should be trying for a Keith/Kimmi final three.

John: Keith/Abi works just as well. Or Kimmi/Abi.

Andy: But that would require trusting Kelley/Abi. Which I don’t think she can. I think they take her out before Keith.

Matt: They would.

Andy: Whereas Spencer/Jeremy won’t necessarily.

John: Right, but only because both of them would beat her.

Andy: Yes, but Tasha’s goal should be to align with people who won’t vote her out. It’s a solid goal.

Matt: So that is why I think it is Kimmi. Because Tasha isn’t playing to win. She isn’t thinking about who she can beat. She is playing to get to the end and taking out Kimmi makes her the third in Spencer and Jeremy’s group.

tasha-dragging-kimmi

Emma: Yeah, Stephen seems to think she legitimately wanted to get to the end with Jeremy. I guess if she pulls a Kimmi on Kimmi and tells the guys she’s the one really pushing for the all women thing.

That’s a confusing sentence.

Andy: It’s possible. It’s also possible that she was in no mood to do Stephen’s moves for him. I think a lot of what’s going on this season is people want to author their own moves, not help with someone else’s.

Matt: Yeah there is a need to have some claim to fame because they know otherwise the jury won’t reward them.

Andy: Which is as reason as any that Spencer didn’t sign off on Stephen’s Joe plan.

Emma: It would suck, but it would also be kind of funny if this ended up being a super bitter jury.

Andy: So here’s a fun prediction, since I’ve got nothing else: I’m going with the “all votes are cancelled” option.

Matt: Except Keith. We all want the Keith decides the game outcome.

Andy: Since I have no idea what happens next, I’ll just say that Tasha goes home.

Matt: But idols will be played right?

Andy: Both idols.

kelley-wentworth-fingernail

Matt: Well in your cancelling scenario yes. But I mean no matter what idols will be played this week

Andy: So in my fantasyland prediction, Keith wins immunity. Keith, Kimmi, Kelley, and Abi vote Jeremy. Tasha, Jeremy, Spencer vote Kelley.

Emma: Idols being played at 7? Yeah, your story checks out.

John: They’re likely getting played at 7 or 5.

Andy: Because she betrayed them, the vote flips to Tasha. No idea who gets to vote still.

Matt: I think there is a revote there with three people immune. Everyone can vote. That is what I think they would do

Andy: That’s likeliest. I want to know.

John: Ok, but that’s not happening. They would’ve teased the hell out of that.

Emma: Great point

John: So what’s the actual prediction?

Andy: There is no reason for me to make plausible predictions anymore.

John: True.

jeremy-voting-blocs

Mark: I’m saying Keith. John and I thinking on the same lines this week.

John: That’s terrible news for you, Mark.

Mark: Tasha can keep playing both sides, and it also removes a big immunity threat. Also, edit wise, who’s been talking more lately? Keith.

Andy: But of course, she can’t. Unless she’s going to rocks next.

Mark: Kimmi got her finale rationale this week.

Andy: It could also be that these people are getting more airtime because there’s more to go around.

Mark: True, but if that was the case we’d see more Keith and Abi not being psycho.

Kimmi basically said she wants to win and do it for her family, no? Jeremy is safe; Kelley is safe. I could actually see both idols coming out at 6.

Also, is anyone starting to think Spencer is gonna be the new Stephen?

John: Yes.

Andy: Like Rob is booting Fishbach?

John: I think it’s pretty likely Spencer comes in 2nd to Jeremy.

spencer-still-sucks

Mark: Though this may be a closer vote.

John: Closer than a shutout? Bold prediction, Mark.

Mark: I’m ready for an All-Star level “you guys worked together but one did it better”. I just want a really close vote

John: I think it would be about 8-2 or 9-1.

Matt: It has been a long time since a really close one basically since Nicaragua. That was 5-4-0, I think.

Andy: Dream scenario: Spencer and Jeremy take control, but Wentworth is able to idol/immunity her way into the final three.

kelley-has-an-immunity-idol

Matt: That is the dream Andy.

John: Ah, if Kelley gets in there too the vote will get spread around.

Emma: That would be awesome.

Matt: I think everyone might get three votes if they were all there.

Mark: As someone else put it, I think Kelley is the “final boss”.

Emma: She’s a boss, I’ll give you that.

kelley-boss

Mark: Nice

Andy: If it were those three in the final, we might have to go ahead and start proclaiming “best season ever”.

Mark: Agreed.

Matt: Yeah that would be unprecedented.

Mark: Even a JSTK final 4 would be great.

Andy: HvV had Sandra, Parv, and Russell – who, while having no chance at winning, was the prime mover of the season.

John: That final three would rival Heroes vs. Villains, only this time without an obvious goat.

Matt: John’s point is why it’s unprecedented. Now if Tasha was there instead of one of them, that would be more akin to HvV.

Andy: Tasha gets no votes and no attention. She’d be Becky.

becky-lee

John: Agreed with Andy.

Emma: That’s uncalled for.

Matt: I think she might get some negative attention

Andy: From Kass, sure.

Mark: Ooh a Cook Islands themed F3 would be nice. Strategy vs. Beast Mode vs the Follower.

Andy: Beast Mode was just voted out dude.

John: Yeah. Oops.

abi-trashes-joes-hair

Mark: Who’s to say Spencer can’t immunity his way to the end now?

John: Not out of the question.

Andy: He could. But it’s way too late for him to get that title.

Emma: I almost hope that happens for the reversal of expectations with him and Jeremy.

Mark: Beast Jr.

Matt: If Spencer won out, he would have 5 immunity wins…

Andy: Math, it foils me again.

Andy John Emma Mark Matt Readers
First
Out
S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_kelly_tKelly S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria S31_spencer_tSpencer  S31_spencer_tSpencer Vytas
Second
Out
S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria   Terry Abi-Maria
Peih-Gee  1024px-Red_x.svg N/A
Third
Out
S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  Kimmi Joe
Jeremy  Monica S31_andrew_t Savage
Fourth
Out
Tasha S31_jeff_tVarner S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria 
Fifth
Out
Kimmi Kimmi Monica Monica
S31_spencer_tSpencer  Monica
Eighth
Out
Tasha Savage
Savage
Kass
Savage
Savage
Ninth
Out
Fishbach
Fishbach
Ciera
Fishbach
Fishbach
Fishbach
Tenth
Out
S31_kelley_t Kelley
Fishbach
Fishbach
Ciera
Ciera
Fishbach
Eleventh
Out
Tasha
Tasha
Tasha
Kimmi
Ciera
Ciera
Twelth
Out
Joe
Keith
Joe
Joe
Joe
Joe
Thirteenth
Out
S31_spencer_tSpencer
Kimmi S31_spencer_tSpencer
Joe
Joe
Joe
Fourteenth
Out
Tasha
Keith S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria
Keith
Kimmi
question-mark
Score 0-red 4-green
Preseason
Winner
Pick
S31_monica_tMonica  S31_jeff_tVarner S31_kelley_t Kelley S31_monica_tMonica   S31_jeff_tVarner  S31_kelley_t Kelley
Quarter-
Season
Winner
Pick 
S31_kelley_t Kelley Tasha S31_kelley_t Kelley
Jeremy  Jeremy  S31_kelley_t Kelley
Mid-
Season
Winner
Pick 
Jeremy  Tasha S31_kelley_t Kelley
Jeremy  Jeremy  Jeremy

Reader poll

What do you guys think? Check the appropriate button (unless you’ve been spoiled) and leave a comment at the bottom if you’re up for it

Who will be the fourteenth eliminated player from Survivor Cambodia?

  • Keith (35% Votes)
  • Abi-Maria (17% Votes)
  • Kimmi (15% Votes)
  • Spencer (15% Votes)
  • Tasha (13% Votes)
  • Kelley (3% Votes)
  • Jeremy (2% Votes)

Total Voters: 60

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Andy
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Andy

Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
Andy
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  • Kemper Boyd

    I wonder if Tasha will get Sarah Lacina’d here.

  • Mike Hirsch

    Would Jeremy actually play his idol for Spencer, like he mentioned earlier? Probably, but I’m picking Spencer anyway. I can’t see a potential female alliance targeting Keith, even as an immunity threat, due to him being a non-starter strategically. So they’d probably target a perceived jury threat in Spencer. Of course, this only works if a) Spencer doesn’t win immunity, b) Kimmi’s highlight last week of setting up the female alliance wasn’t merely a prelude for it imploding this week, and c) Jeremy doesn’t play his idol for Spencer.

    So, actually I’ll go with Kimmi.

    • purplerockpodcast

      Way to talk yourself into and out of your argument within a few sentences. You sound like me about 5 minutes before every podcast when I realize I have to make a prediction for the week.

    • Kemper Boyd

      By 7 I don’t see the value of using an idol to keep an ally. If you are safe at 7 you should keep your idol to use on yourself at 6 or 5.

      • Mike Hirsch

        I agree with you, however, Jeremy seems to be fairly true to his word, so he might be someone who would play an idol for Spencer in the hopes that if Spencer did get Fishbach’d the next vote, he’d be a sure vote for Jeremy at the final TC.

        But, yeah, 7 would be kind of late in the game to protect an ally instead of oneself.

        • Kemper Boyd

          I don’t think telling Spencertainly was his word, it was placating a worried ally.

  • Barbara Anderson

    I think the reason why the commercials is so vague and hinting at a blindside that didn’t happen is that we are going to get a crazy tribal. I think we will see both idols played correctly or at least I hope they are for my Fantasy League.

  • Brenda4evah

    What I want to happen: The no-votes-count scenario. What I think will happen: Tasha does flip to the women’s alliance because she rather have a) an uncertain path to the final 3 + a good chance of winning than b) a sure spot in the final 3 + no shot at winning. I think they dither over Jeremy vs. Spencer but out of fear of idols they vote out Keith. Jeremy plays his idol on himself and Wentworth keeps hers. Once it’s 4 vs. 2 I think Kimmi bails out on the women’s alliance (lol) because she doesn’t want 4th.

    • Kemper Boyd

      I think basically every fan wants the all votes nullified by idol situation just to see it happen. I actually disagree with you though, I think Tasha would rather get to the final 3 with Jeremy and Spencer than make the move to try and get there with people she could beat but go out 4 or 5. Also Kimmi is 4 with Jeremy/Spencer/Tasha and 3 with Kelley and Abi, maybe Kimmi will bail if it looks like Tasha has bailed and Keith is with the guys but to me Kelley, Abi and Keith are the best option as only one of them is unbeatable by Kimmi but Tasha, Spencer and Jeremy all of them are unbeatable for her.

  • turgid_legume

    We haven’t really talked about it since the merge, but is everyone assuming we’ll have a jury of 10 and a final 3? That would mean three eliminations in the last episode, or two this week and two next week, both of which would be very strange from a pacing standpoint. Or is there a possibility of a final 4 and jury of 9? Thoughts?

    • Diego Armando

      Last season had 3 challenges in the finale, so I could see there being three eliminations. I could see there being a final four, though.

      • sharculese

        3 challenges in the finale, with one of them being a reward and the other 2 being immunity is pretty common. But fitting in 3 tribals plus FTC feels like a lot.

        I don’t think it’s a final four, though. There’s just no upside in going to that format.

        • Brenda4evah

          I think a final four is highly unlikely, but it could be an audible to deal with Abi’s continued presence in the game: A final three with her is a de facto final two, which they presumably don’t want.

          • sharculese

            Every person they add to FTC increases the odds that someone wins by a slim plurality, so I just can’t see production seeing that risk being worth taking just to increase the stakes, and I’m not sure how worried they are that having Abi at the end will sap drama. Given how often we have something closer to a de facto final one, I don’t think anyone will complain about only getting two plausible candidates for the million.

          • Brenda4evah

            Slightly off topic, but it’s interesting how seldom we have a genuine squeaker of a FTC vote. There’s Borneo of course, but in Survivor’s modern form there’s only Cook Islands and the Mr. Don’t Bee seasons Gabon and Nicaragua.