Here they are, the last time we’ll do one person predictions for Survivor Cambodia. After this week, we’ll have to figure out six placements, which I’m guessing will mean this is the last predictions chat of the year.
Matt: So what do we think happens?
Andy: I think this is when Joe finally doesn’t win immunity.
Matt: … that was last week Andy!
Andy: Hey, I won’t be wrong. He will not win immunity. This is as close to a correct prediction as I might get.
Matt: Yes, but finally has implied that this is a first and this will be the third time Joe doesn’t win immunity
Andy: It’s the first time I’ve predicted it. But now that he’s gone, I really don’t know what to predict. It’s like this plug was removed from the strategy game.
John: Joe lost two straight immunities. What a loser.
Matt: So Keith is going to go on that Mike Holloway-esque immunity run right now right?
John: Ok, well that transitions right into my pick: Keith.
Matt: Do we believe what the edit has set up: that it will be the women v the men with Tasha in the middle?
John: Yes, because this serves both of Tasha’s needs: keeping her 3-person alliance with Jeremy/Spencer intact, and keeping the potential women’s alliance strong.
Andy: But does it?
John: No, but she’ll think it does.
Andy: Doesn’t this serve as a betrayal to Jeremy and Spencer?
Emma: According to the random name shuffler, which is probably as accurate as anything, Abi will go home.
Matt: That honestly isn’t a terrible guess Emma.
Emma: I agree!
Matt: Because if they fear idols, no one will play an idol to protect Abi.
Emma: She’s been targeted twice in a row.
Andy: Emma, I might kill your pick by choosing Abi.
Emma: Dammit, Andy. The shuffler is all I have.
Andy: Maybe Tasha flirts with the idea of going with women’s alliance, but can’t handle Abi’s craziness.
Emma: Also in regards to Keith, I feel like Kelley would be reluctant to get rid of him. Goat potential.
John: To be clear, I think there’s no way Tasha is actually in on a women’s alliance. She should be, but I don’t think she is.
Matt: I think we all agree about that
Andy: I don’t.
Matt: Oh right. Andy doesn’t.
Andy: I think it’s too late in the game for Tasha to be signing up with Kelley and Abi. She should be trying for a Keith/Kimmi final three.
John: Keith/Abi works just as well. Or Kimmi/Abi.
Andy: But that would require trusting Kelley/Abi. Which I don’t think she can. I think they take her out before Keith.
Matt: They would.
Andy: Whereas Spencer/Jeremy won’t necessarily.
John: Right, but only because both of them would beat her.
Andy: Yes, but Tasha’s goal should be to align with people who won’t vote her out. It’s a solid goal.
Matt: So that is why I think it is Kimmi. Because Tasha isn’t playing to win. She isn’t thinking about who she can beat. She is playing to get to the end and taking out Kimmi makes her the third in Spencer and Jeremy’s group.
Emma: Yeah, Stephen seems to think she legitimately wanted to get to the end with Jeremy. I guess if she pulls a Kimmi on Kimmi and tells the guys she’s the one really pushing for the all women thing.
That’s a confusing sentence.
Andy: It’s possible. It’s also possible that she was in no mood to do Stephen’s moves for him. I think a lot of what’s going on this season is people want to author their own moves, not help with someone else’s.
Matt: Yeah there is a need to have some claim to fame because they know otherwise the jury won’t reward them.
Andy: Which is as reason as any that Spencer didn’t sign off on Stephen’s Joe plan.
Emma: It would suck, but it would also be kind of funny if this ended up being a super bitter jury.
Andy: So here’s a fun prediction, since I’ve got nothing else: I’m going with the “all votes are cancelled” option.
Matt: Except Keith. We all want the Keith decides the game outcome.
Andy: Since I have no idea what happens next, I’ll just say that Tasha goes home.
Matt: But idols will be played right?
Andy: Both idols.
Matt: Well in your cancelling scenario yes. But I mean no matter what idols will be played this week
Andy: So in my fantasyland prediction, Keith wins immunity. Keith, Kimmi, Kelley, and Abi vote Jeremy. Tasha, Jeremy, Spencer vote Kelley.
Emma: Idols being played at 7? Yeah, your story checks out.
John: They’re likely getting played at 7 or 5.
Andy: Because she betrayed them, the vote flips to Tasha. No idea who gets to vote still.
Matt: I think there is a revote there with three people immune. Everyone can vote. That is what I think they would do
Andy: That’s likeliest. I want to know.
John: Ok, but that’s not happening. They would’ve teased the hell out of that.
Emma: Great point
John: So what’s the actual prediction?
Andy: There is no reason for me to make plausible predictions anymore.
Mark: I’m saying Keith. John and I thinking on the same lines this week.
John: That’s terrible news for you, Mark.
Mark: Tasha can keep playing both sides, and it also removes a big immunity threat. Also, edit wise, who’s been talking more lately? Keith.
Andy: But of course, she can’t. Unless she’s going to rocks next.
Mark: Kimmi got her finale rationale this week.
Andy: It could also be that these people are getting more airtime because there’s more to go around.
Mark: True, but if that was the case we’d see more Keith and Abi not being psycho.
Kimmi basically said she wants to win and do it for her family, no? Jeremy is safe; Kelley is safe. I could actually see both idols coming out at 6.
Also, is anyone starting to think Spencer is gonna be the new Stephen?
Andy: Like Rob is booting Fishbach?
John: I think it’s pretty likely Spencer comes in 2nd to Jeremy.
Mark: Though this may be a closer vote.
John: Closer than a shutout? Bold prediction, Mark.
Mark: I’m ready for an All-Star level “you guys worked together but one did it better”. I just want a really close vote
John: I think it would be about 8-2 or 9-1.
Matt: It has been a long time since a really close one basically since Nicaragua. That was 5-4-0, I think.
Andy: Dream scenario: Spencer and Jeremy take control, but Wentworth is able to idol/immunity her way into the final three.
Matt: That is the dream Andy.
John: Ah, if Kelley gets in there too the vote will get spread around.
Emma: That would be awesome.
Matt: I think everyone might get three votes if they were all there.
Mark: As someone else put it, I think Kelley is the “final boss”.
Emma: She’s a boss, I’ll give you that.
Andy: If it were those three in the final, we might have to go ahead and start proclaiming “best season ever”.
Matt: Yeah that would be unprecedented.
Mark: Even a JSTK final 4 would be great.
Andy: HvV had Sandra, Parv, and Russell – who, while having no chance at winning, was the prime mover of the season.
John: That final three would rival Heroes vs. Villains, only this time without an obvious goat.
Matt: John’s point is why it’s unprecedented. Now if Tasha was there instead of one of them, that would be more akin to HvV.
Andy: Tasha gets no votes and no attention. She’d be Becky.
John: Agreed with Andy.
Emma: That’s uncalled for.
Matt: I think she might get some negative attention
Andy: From Kass, sure.
Mark: Ooh a Cook Islands themed F3 would be nice. Strategy vs. Beast Mode vs the Follower.
Andy: Beast Mode was just voted out dude.
John: Yeah. Oops.
Mark: Who’s to say Spencer can’t immunity his way to the end now?
John: Not out of the question.
Andy: He could. But it’s way too late for him to get that title.
Emma: I almost hope that happens for the reversal of expectations with him and Jeremy.
Mark: Beast Jr.
Matt: If Spencer won out, he would have 5 immunity wins…
Andy: Math, it foils me again.
What do you guys think? Check the appropriate button (unless you’ve been spoiled) and leave a comment at the bottom if you’re up for it
- Keith (35% Votes)
- Abi-Maria (17% Votes)
- Kimmi (15% Votes)
- Spencer (15% Votes)
- Tasha (13% Votes)
- Kelley (3% Votes)
- Jeremy (2% Votes)
Total Voters: 60
Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino