Survivor Cambodia Week 2 Predictions and Poll

One week into the books on Survivor Cambodia, and we’re already in mid-season form with the entire PRP staff getting week one wrong. Our readers got it right*, but now we have some actual evidence to go on, so our incorrect predictions will mean more last week. Also, we hope you liked our chat post last week, because that’s how we’re going to do these for the next little while. Let us know what you think! And remember to vote in this week’s poll.

pr_predictionsbnr_480

Ta Keo boot predictions:

Andy: Does the Shirin/Spencer/Kelley alliance stay on its path and take out Terry?

Matt: No it will be Peih-Gee or Abi, but my prediction is Peih-Gee.

Andy: Why Peih-Gee?

Matt: I just thought she was getting a bad edit and it was setting it up for next week. I think the edit was more negative Peih-Gee than just crazy Abi. And going a little meta, I remember the past few seasons using early episodes to set up next boots.

Emma: Really? I didn’t think Peih-Gee came off badly.

Matt: Yeah, I might be on an island with that, I see people saying that Peih-Gee came off well but my impression was that the camera didn’t like her.

Andy: It did during her ocean chat with Varner tho.

Cambodia- Varner and Peih Gee floating
If you get my meaning…

Matt: And not during tribal at all when she is more concerned with being scared of a bug than the vote.

Andy: Agreed. I think she might be set up as the backstabber. Which may bode poorly in a swap.

Emma: Wow, I do not remember that happening. There was a bug?

Andy: A big centipede was crawling around during Tribal!

Emma: Damn, maybe I need to cool it with the live tweeting.

tribal-council-centipedepeih-gee-reacts

John: I think Varner and Peih-Gee swing back to the other side and Abi goes home.

Emma: I think there’s a good chance it’s Terry. With a chance that Peih-Gee and Varner flip back if Abi-Maria gets too Abi.

Andy: Here’s how I see it happening: Shirin/Kelley push HARD for Terry, especially after his comments that didn’t make the air. Peih-Gee will feel really uncomfortable with having Abi on her side, but they’ll ignore that in favour of their pre-game strategy of forming the Babe Brigade. But Varner doesn’t want to burn his other side again, and really didn’t want to this time, but wasn’t going to have a tie. So he and Peih-Gee swing back, possibly with Spencer. So Abi-Maria goes, and Shirin/Kelley are on the outs.

John: I actually wonder if some of that Shirin/Spencer/Wentworth alliance gives in and goes along with voting Abi. Because if keeping her insanity around is going to drive away potential allies, it’s not worth it.

Matt: I think when Abi goes, it is a unanimous vote.

Andy: I could see that. They’re not idiots. But I think they’re REALLY threatened by Terry and put off by him. Plus, they gotta be feeling a bit of a high for getting to dictate the first vote.

John: Terry is easier to target later.

Andy: I do think that Shirin really wants Abi in her group though.

Emma: That and Shirin *does not* like Terry, and I feel like she’s in the driver’s seat for now. We also know Shirin wants him out pre-merge because she does not believe he’ll vote for a woman in the finals.

John: But this would be the second vote. That’s way ahead of the merge.

Emma: I wasn’t done!

Andy: But if they got swapped to different tribes, this could be her last chance.

Emma: Yes, that. And Shirin is smart enough to anticipate a swap. Although the fact it didn’t make the episode gives me pause… that look on Shirin and Kelley’s face in that photo. They might even feel protective of Abi at that point.

https://twitter.com/theshirin/status/646860843036991488
https://twitter.com/theshirin/status/646860843036991488

Andy: I like where Emma is going here. It fits into my preseason thoughts on Shirin, that her downfall could be one of her more admirable traits: her strong sense of social justice. Which is probably why I’m predicting she falls on the wrong side of the numbers here. Because my predictions are all about putting myself over.

Mark: I think it’s Abi. She doesn’t seem to be cooling it, and I think Varner and Peih Gee are a power couple. Though the fact that they played their hand at Tribal worries me. I’d rather see a subtle duo. So if you piss off PG, and Varner is already uneasy, they go with whoever wants Abi out. But I think Abi, PG, and Terry get votes in Tribal unless something swings.

John: No way three people get votes. Unless it’s an intentional vote split.

Matt: Wait… if Shirin and Kelley really want to keep Abi around, would Kelley play her idol on Abi?

Andy: No chance.

John: Nooooooo.

Emma: No way. Pregame Kelley didn’t even seem to care for Abi. I think she’s with her because Shirin is.

Matt: I don’t think so either. Just a thought I had.

Mark: Woo is the loneliest number. He went with the majority after the last time his allies got booted, so.

Andy: Woo is used to this.

John: It’s the only way Woo has ever known.

Matt: Wouldn’t it be hilarious if Woo flipped to Shirin but Varner and Peih-Gee flipped to the other side and Woo ends up on the losing side again?

surprised woo - cambodia edition

Emma: OMG

Mark: OMG please let that happen.

Bayon boot predictions:

Andy: Alright, who goes home if it’s Bayon?

Matt: Unfortunately, it is Stephen. But I don’t think it’s Bayon. If it is, I think this week set up only one Bayon person.

fishback-vs-branch

Andy: I agree. Stephen, but I think Ta Keo loses.

Mark: Maybe that’s why he’s blogging? But I don’t think that would work with the perspective. I’m rewatching the premiere now, and I have a Bayon pick: Keith. I think the alpha males will get blown up if they go to Tribal.

Matt: I think Keith is going to cause the eventual downfall of Jeremy, but I don’t think its immediate. I think maybe on the swap

Mark: He’s against yoga, and every time a Joe or a Jeremy (still negative) talked, they cut to a smirking woman. If Stephen jumps to the ladies, that’s 6. Or Fish jumps, it ties, and Tasha flips.

Matt: Are you sure the reaction to Joe was a smirk and not a leer? But either way, I doubt Keith is the target if they go after that alliance. It’s probably Joe or Jeremy.

Mark: Oh, my reasoning for that is the intro and the “who doesn’t have an idol” aspect. Trying to go out on a Fish-immune limb here for the site.

Emma: This might be out there, but I’m going to say Monica. Largely because I don’t want to say Stephen, but also since Jeff said there’s a romance brewing. I’m just assuming that will be Monica and Joe. And who gets targeted when people freak out about a showmance?

joegajoe-is-perfect

The girl. Especially on a tribe that’s actually going to care about tribe strength, of which she has none.

Mark: I still haven’t picked a good Monica replacement. If I need to.

John: Yeah, I think I do too. All of that preseason Monica hype faded pretty quickly.

Mark: Watch us switch and be wrong

John: Exactly.

Emma: Her only confessional was “I’m nervous about getting tree mail because I’m small”. WHILE SHE SITS NEXT TO CIERA.

monica_smallestmonica-confessional-ep1

Matt: I’m not panicking over Monica’s lack of confessionals because no one on that tribe had confessionals.

Andy: The funniest will be if everyone picked Monica to win due to her ability to stay under the radar early in the game, only for everyone to jump off the bandwagon because she’s under the radar super early in the game.

Mark: Hahaha

John: Right. She hasn’t actually done anything different than we predicted.

Andy: She’s doing EXACTLY what we predicted, and it’s making people nervous.

Emma: I also have a theory that people will target her for being the flirty Parvati type, while Kelley, the charming Parvati type, slips under their noses.

Andy: Like, if you want to pick a challenge-weak woman because you don’t want to say Stephen, Ciera is right there. And she VOTED OUT HER MOM!

Emma: Ciera loses her threat appeal now that Vytas is gone. Truthfully, I have no fucking idea who would go home from Bayon because we barely saw them and they’re not going to lose, so I just wanted to pick something interesting.

John: I like how we all just assume Ta Keo is going to lose.

Mark: Ta Keo is. I bet.

John: Oh, I don’t disagree. I just think it’s funny.

Andy: There is a puzzle this week. Watch Peih-Gee throw it.

Matt: That would be amazing!

Mark: Hahaha. “This isn’t Sudoku!”

Emma: …to get rid of Abi. Although to really be on brand, it would be to ditch Terry.

Andy: Does Spencer push a floundering Shirin out of the way?
max-pushes-shirin

Predictions

Andy John Emma Mark Matt Jenn no fucksReaders
First Boot S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_kelly_tKelly S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria S31_spencer_tSpencer  S31_spencer_tSpencer Vytas
Bayon Next Boot Stephen  Monica Monica Keith  Stephen  1024px-Red_x.svg N/A
Ta Keo Next Boot S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria   Terry Abi-Maria
Peih-Gee  1024px-Red_x.svg N/A
Winner Pick S31_monica_tMonica  S31_jeff_tVarner S31_kelley_t Kelley S31_monica_tMonica   S31_jeff_tVarner  S31_kelley_t Kelley

Reader poll

So… last week was fun. We’ve already addressed this in comments and on the podcast, but the lopsided selection of Vytas gave the distinct impression that some of the people (not all) voting for him were probably spoiled, especially since some digging suggested that there were readily available spoilers (from CBS themselves) that strongly suggested he was not long for the game. This puts us in a bit of a bind, because we don’t want to set up a mechanism that allows for easily spoiling of results. But we do encourage you to play along with us. So what do we do?

That’ll be up to you. If you’d like us to continue with the polls or not, let us know. Either way, there will be no reader poll for this week, as it’s been indicated that one of the major spoilers is from the third week (thus revealing eliminated players for the first two weeks). We’ll pick this back up (or not) in week three.

Should we continue to do weekly prediction polls?

  • Yes (77% Votes)
  • No (23% Votes)

Total Voters: 71

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Andy
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Andy

Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
Andy
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  • gouis

    Maybe bring back the poll post-merge? I think (not sure) that all the spoilers are for the early game. It also simplifies it since there is only one tribe at that point.

  • Kemper Boyd

    I jumped off the Monica bandwagon because I enjoyed Wentworth’s antics so much and I like to have a pick 4 of people I like, the only way for me to get Wentworth and keep 2 of my other favourites was to sacrifice Monica, I won’t even be sad if she comes back and wins.

  • Other Scott

    Monica was about to be voted off in Samoa before Russell Swan’s medivac, and was nearly voted out the very first Galu vote. Tribes have been known to see her as a weakness in the pre-merge game probably in camp life as well as the challenges. On the other hand, Ciera had a very good chance to be last woman standing on the original Tandang in Blood vs Water back in the Culpepper alliance days. I could easily see Fishbach going home right away as well though. Or Kass, obviously.

    On Ta Keo, I have no idea. That tribe is crazy. But I don’t know how everyone thinks they’re going to lose. Yes, Bayon wasn’t very well established in that first episode, but you can turn that around in the second episode pretty quickly. And it’s not like Ta Keo is a super amount weaker, unless the challenges have an individual component to finish and Joe can just crush everyone. I see Spencer, Wentworth, Wiglesworth and Woo as safe on that tribe, but that’s about it.

    • andythesaint

      Or… maybe NOW Varner can strike at Spencer. No that it’s clear he’s not a shelter person.

      • Other Scott

        Pretty sure Spencer has more close allies than Varner at this point. But it’s a nice thought.

        • Kemper Boyd

          I don’t know if that is true; from what we have seen Varner and Peih-Gee are tight, who is Spencer tight with? Honestly do we think that Shirin and Wentworth would go to the wall for him? Especially considering he has Tasha on the other side.

          • Other Scott

            Either Spencer or Wentworth is the glue holding that whole beach people side together right now. Varner was not going to be on Peih-Gee’s side of the boat until he realized it was going to be a tie, so it’s hard to argue they’re the strong pair in the game.

            I don’t think Spencer and Tasha are automatically allies just because they were in the same alliance last time, especially since they were basically forced into it. Same argument with Ciera, I don’t see any evidence she was going to join together with Vytas just because they were on Blood vs Water. It’s the whole Parvati-Amanda thing- the alliance lines of the current season are much closer than any previous ties you may have had.

          • sharculese

            They’re not automatically allies but it’s also something you have to think about. Do Spencer and Tasha want to work together again? Nobody on either tribe knows, and while it’s probably not the foremost thing you should be considering right now, it is one of the many things on the list.

          • Kemper Boyd

            Yes, I’m not talking about whether it would really happen, rather I’m talking about the way it looks to other players, that is what matters.

          • Kemper Boyd

            I agree with you that they are probably not automatically getting back together BUT it doesn’t matter whether Spencer and Tasha are automatically allies, all that is needed is the fear of that happening. Truth isn’t important on Survivor,he truth matters far less than the fear when it comes to making decisions.

          • Kemper Boyd

            Also you can’t tell me that either Wentworth or Spencer is the glue holding the beach people together and tell me that Varner and Peih-Gee can’t be assumed to be a pair. After one episode we can’t assume there is a glue holding the beach people together they could just as easily have come together on one vote and fall apart. It’s one episode, we don’t know that they are a set alliance no one has said (like Jeremy did on the other side) that it’s Shirin, Wentworth, Abi-Maria, Peih-Gee and Spencer.

  • sharculese

    The equally plausible thing with Monica’s light edit is that Survivor is fully aware that Monica comes out of Samoa not exactly the most memorable person, and that she’s there in large part because for a lot of people she was the most attractive (no pun intended) option for getting their ballots up to ten. So spend the premier highlight the people you folks are really excited about (and, unlike us, they know what the vote totals have to say about that). If Monica sticks around for a minute, then we can start building her up as a character.

    The same thing probably would have happened to Wentworth if she hadn’t created a huge moment for herself.

    • Barbara Anderson

      My big issue with Monica’s confessional was that it just felt like the editors had to have a confessional out of her and that was the one they gave her on the show. They could had her talk about how Kass doesn’t remind her of Russell or something like that, but instead it is about her not being a physical threat. It just felt so odd.

      • sharculese

        I don’t know that framing Monica’s season in terms of Russell does her much of a service either. The idea that the book is unwritten on Monica is a way more compelling narrative than starting from “I was the person who got Russell Hantz rattled that one time.”

        • Kemper Boyd

          I’d prefer each of them got framed in episode one with “this is who they were” then we can move on and let them actually have a second chance, a game where we get new impressions of them like we did with Parvati in Micronesia or a lot of the cast in Caramoan.

          • sharculese

            Those were half all-star seasons though, so we also have a tribe full of irrelevant fodder we don’t need to puff up. It sucks, but if you’re looking at a what’s already a loooong episode and saying “we don’t have room to spotlight all of these people, who can we cut?” Monica is probably the answer.

          • Kemper Boyd

            This is very true but an hour and 6 minutes on screen they could have fitted everyone in a little. I know why they didn’t but they could.

  • Violina23

    I’m kind of “take it or leave it” regarding a poll, but I like the conversation thread, and that we can discuss it below if we feel so inclined. To me, that’s much more entertaining than “62.333% of readers think Abi-Maria is the next to go”.

    • andythesaint

      Agreed about the conversation. We welcome it all! We are clearly never too distracted by work to discuss this stuff! Bring it… as long as you’re not spoiled.

      • Violina23

        I have two young children. If I have spare time I’m sleeping, not looking up Survivor Spoilers (plus, I fail to see what reward is left in watching a GAME show when you know what happens)

        • andythesaint

          I was referring to everyone with the “as long as you’re not spoiled”, not you. I’d never accuse you. We team.

          • Violina23

            Sometimes I feel sad that some people have nothing better to do than dig up spoilers. But most of the time, I’m jealous of this “free time” concept. I’d still rather be napping….

        • Kemper Boyd

          I was spoiled for HvV and it ruined the first watch for me. In fact I don’t think I watched along that season, only going back for a binge watch later on. Survivor is about the decisions and suspense, why would you want to know who goes home and in what order?

          • purplerockpodcast

            It would be like watching a horror movie while someone sits beside you and says “Watch this, someone’s about to pop out of that closet with a knife.”

          • Kemper Boyd

            I just remember thinking “well that final 3 can’t be right” and then as each boot was correct I got more annoyed and eventually stopped watching.

          • Diego Armando

            I heard the final 3 at one point late in the season, but it was presented as a rumor/theory and was something that could have been pretty readily guessed by that point.

  • Diego Armando

    My predictions are Shirin and Stephen. I have not looked at any spoiler websites.

  • Mechanical Shark

    It’s DEFINITELY a good idea not to have a poll this week. People know who the next boot is. Sucks and reddit have some next-level shit going on with their promo/press photo analysis.