Survivor Cambodia Week 3 Predictions and Poll

Time for another installment of the Purple Rock Podcast staff try and guess the next boot of Survivor Cambodia. This week is interesting since the preview for the next episode let us know that there’s basically no way to sensibly predict anything. But we didn’t let that stop us.

Note: The new tribe division information is out there, but we didn’t look at it before trying our hand at predictions. So what you’re seeing here is us taking a shot in the dark. If you have seen the new tribe division, you’re still welcome to vote in the poll below and take that info into account. If you’ve seen a boot order: GO. AWAY.

pr_predictionsbnr_480

Next Boot Predictions

Andy: So… where do we even start with predictions now?

Matt: There are probably two groups of people that could go, the perceived weak or annoying people like those we were projecting for week 1 exits. Your Kasses, your Kimmis. Then maybe people perceived as being threatening for some reason, Your Joes, maybe the Cagayan group because … well there are still 4 of them.

Andy: I do think that we might need to revert to pre-game logic here. Because it’s like new things have been started, with only possible six day alliances replacing pre-game alliances.

Matt: I think pre-game logic with a mild dose of edit reading. Like lets be honest: Varner and Wentworth aren’t going anywhere I want to say the same about Jeremy and Savage, but… god, I can’t trust it.

bayon-reactions

Andy: So, then do we go by the edit thus far? Because then I think our candidates are Stephen, Abi-Maria, Spencer, and Joe?

Mark: I think Savage could be in trouble. At least if he and Fishbach end up on the same tribe and Fish has numbers. I think it’s safer to say who ISN’T going home. Both Kelly’s, Spencer, Varner, the former Bayon women. I don’t know whether to suggest someone the edit is setting up for a fall or someone invisible.

Matt: Nah, the edit could build up and pick off a Bayon woman super quick. This is Survivor, if Kimmi was voted out next week do you really think they would have looked back and said “well we need to set this up”.

Emma: Yeah people get invisible edits because they’re going out early all the time. Hell, look at Wentworth’s first season.

Andy: Is Stephen the target? Is that what the edit is telling us?

John: Shirin and then Stephen back to back? Only if Survivor is trying to crush me.

fishbach-coconut-chop

Emma: I’m gonna say Joe. No Collar lost a couple challenges, so we know he can’t carry a tribe all by himself, as amazing as he is.

Andy: I think people would be crazy to target him right now. I’m guessing that everyone is going to have to rebuild shelters over the next few days. And I think he’s basically been the difference between Bayon and Ta Keo thus far.

Emma: He’s being set up as such a hero and he came thisclose to being knocked out at a swap last time.

Andy: That swap wasn’t on day 7.

I should add that I’m not saying it isn’t possible that it would be Joe, but that it would be a dumb move if it were to happen. But people make dumb moves, so.

Emma: Yeah, I’m not saying it’d be smart, but people so far have been playing a little too hard too fast. People not realizing Mike was using Joe as a shield might see not voting Joe out at that swap as a mistake. Especially without a Mike to win all the challenges. Depending on who he lands with, they could think it’s their only chance.

Andy: There’s definitely been the continuing thread of “Joe is dangerous”. This would not come out of nowhere. In fact, maybe this why much of the limited Bayon time has been spent on him. Gotta use the Joe footage while you have it.

creepy joe

Emma: Mmmhmm.

John: I say it’s someone with a light edit so far. So anyone from Bayon, or Wigles or Woo.

Matt: I was thinking Wigles!

But I also really don’t think its Wigles

John: It’s not Wigles. She’s the exact type of goat you want.

Andy: I’ve picked Abi for two straight episodes. I’m gonna let that ride now. She’s fulfilled her story purpose, will wind up on a tribe unwilling to live with her bullshit, adios.

abi-and-varner

John: I’ll say Kimmi.

Andy: Anything of interest to say about why Kimmi other than “why not?”

John: Is there ever anything of interest to say about Kimmi?

Varner-poetic

Mark
: Still think Savage could be in danger, but I’m going to say either Kimmi or Jeremy. I think Wiggles is taking the Kimmi old goat space people were predicting. Jeremy got his big quote last week with the inspiring music, only to prep for a fall.

Andy: SAY ONE!

Mark: NO.

Andy: You’ll only get credit for one.

Mark: Fine, Jeremy.

jeremy-pregnant-quote

Matt: I’m gonna say Monica. Because I think it’s someone invisible and I don’t want to say Kimmi.

Mark: Noooo! Say it ain’t so. She has yet to fulfill her Caramoan Brenda destiny.

Matt: I’m saying Monica so that all our pre-season predictions will be proved wrong immediately.

monica-head-turn

Andy: Anything else to add?

Matt: We are all over the freaking place

Andy: Here’s what I’ll add: if the readers win this one by a significant consensus, we are never doing this again. Unless it’s someone super obvious.

John: Right. If it’s a crazy landslide, fuck the readers. But if it’s close, then ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

Predictions

Andy John Emma Mark Matt Jenn no fucksReaders
First Boot S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_kelly_tKelly S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria S31_spencer_tSpencer  S31_spencer_tSpencer Vytas
Second Boot S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria   Terry Abi-Maria
Peih-Gee  1024px-Red_x.svg N/A
Third Boot S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  Kimmi Joe
Jeremy  Monica S31_andrew_t Savage
Score 0-red 0-red 0-red 0-red 0-red 1-green
Winner Pick S31_monica_tMonica  S31_jeff_tVarner S31_kelley_t Kelley S31_monica_tMonica   S31_jeff_tVarner  S31_kelley_t Kelley

Reader poll

Back by popular demand! You know the drill, make your predictions, unless you’ve been spoiled. For the purposes of this week, it’s okay if you’ve been spoiled on the tribe divisions. I have since making the above prediction, and I think it still holds up (even if I may have changed my mind to someone else as a result). The good news is that the readers have not fallen back any since we are continuing our proud tradition of being bad at boot predictions. Glad to see adding three new guessers hasn’t change that. It is core to our identity.

Who will get voted out third in Survivor: Cambodia

  • Andrew Savage (21% Votes)
  • Abi-Maria Gomes (20% Votes)
  • Stephen Fishbach (15% Votes)
  • Jeremy Collins (8% Votes)
  • Woo Hwang (6% Votes)
  • Joe Anglim (5% Votes)
  • Peih-Gee Law (5% Votes)
  • Kimmi Kappenberg (4% Votes)
  • Ciera Eastin (3% Votes)
  • Monica Padilla (3% Votes)
  • Kelly Wiglesworth (3% Votes)
  • Tasha Fox (2% Votes)
  • Keith Nale (1% Votes)
  • Spencer Bledsoe (1% Votes)
  • Kass McQuillen (1% Votes)
  • Terry Deitz (1% Votes)
  • Jeff Varner (0% Votes)
  • Kelley Wentworth (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 97

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Andy
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Andy

Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
Andy
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  • Ms_Woozah

    i have no idea how this could go. i’m just going to say abi-maria because it has to happen eventually. right??

    • Purplerockmatt

      does it though?

      • Other Scott

        It does not. But it probably will. Because you have to be as crazy as Abi to keep Abi around for long.

    • Kemper Boyd

      People keep saying that and now it’s all your fault when she wins.

      • purplerockpodcast

        Don’t just blame @Ms_Woozah:disqus. It’ll be Andy’s fault, too.

        • Kemper Boyd

          Sorry @Ms_Woozah:disqus @purplerockpodcast:disqus is right it’s Andy’s fault mainly not yours.

  • gouis

    Abi is going home unless her team wins.

  • Other Scott

    So, there’s probably two people going home, right? 20 people seasons need double boots, and the perfect way to do it is “one tribe wins immunity, other two to tribal council.”

    • andythesaint

      We actually theorized on that as well, but I think it’s too much business to put in one episode (establishing the three new tribes, reassembling shelters, checking in with characters in the new reality, plus challenge and tribal). So the double boot will have to come later.

      • bder19

        I also think that since two camps are already set up, there would only be one losing tribe, who has to build a shelter from scratch. Making everyone rebuild their shelters makes all the rewards and supplies from the premier meaningless, and it’s too cruel to give them so many tools and then take them all away. I agree that a double-tribal might be coming but not right away.

        • Barbara Anderson

          Oh I like that idea. Not only do they have to go to Tribal, but they have build a camp together.

    • Kemper Boyd

      I like the idea but there are also theories out there that ask if they will do 3 tribes for only 2 boots then go back to two tribes of 8. Obviously this only happens if a single tribe loses two immunities in a row. Otherwise the theory states it will be 4 boots then back to two tribes of 7.

  • Kemper Boyd

    I voted for Savage for Matt.

    • Purplerockmatt

      you and the other anti-Matt trolls are apparently carrying the day. But that i can inspire this kind of trolling makes me super happy. You guys must be so excited at the possibility of seeing me meltdown on wednesday

      • sharculese

        I don’t think it’s trolling so much as gentle teasing. Your pro-Savage bias is known. How can you not expect the commentariat to have a little fun with that?

        • purplerockpodcast

          Believe me, he’s used to it. Our staff chats are filled with (generally) good-spirited trolling of each other.

      • Kemper Boyd

        I picked him because this week a full blown crap-shoot, we have no idea what the 3 tribes will look like thus who will be insecure. I feel like there is a situation where Savage ends up low in numbers and against Takeo people who are playing a take out the threats game. Obviously there is also a scenario where he ends up with Joe or Jeremy and two of his women and he is fine.

        • Purplerockmatt

          I just want you to know that if the episode opens with a Savage confessional that is like “this tribe is perfect, i hope nothing ever changes” I’m going to red alert (and if he winds up on a terrible tribe it will be full defcon 1). I do agree with your premise, I think i expressed concern for him in the staff chats

          • Roswulf

            The potential for the story arc triggered by the confessional of doom is why I picked Savage. There’s a really clean arc to the Savage story they have started to tell that ends with him getting clobbered by an unlucky swap in the next episode (if we’re going full-edit read, by an alliance between Stephen the Schemer and Abi the Destroyer). It even ties back to his first appearance- Savage is the guy who gets massacred by twists.

            It’s as plausible a story arc as anything the show has given us, given the possible Savage hubris set-up.

          • Kemper Boyd

            Exactly! Me too. I picked him a) to annoy Matt and b) because it’s a crap-shoot and I feel he’s been getting the edit of comeuppance.

          • Purplerockmatt

            i’m not annoyed that people pick Savage. I do get panicky at the thought it might actually be savage. well maybe weepy is the better descriptor

          • Kemper Boyd

            Basically the people I think are 100% safe no matter their tribe swap are basically just Wiglesworth, Wentworth, Keith, Woo and Tasha. Dependant on how things go Monica, Peih-Gee, Kimmi or Ciera could be taken out as challenge weaknesses; Kass or Abi-Maria could be taken out as problem people (also weak in physical challenges); Joe, Savage, Jeremy or Dietz as strong challenge players; Spencer, Varner or Stephen as strategic threats.
            It all depends on the tribes. That’s why I picked Savage, because I think his edit hasn’t been a winner’s edit, it’s been a making the same mistakes edit. I don’t see him making the jury sorry.

          • andythesaint

            I’d take Tasha off that safe list. There was a lot of fear going in on the Cagayaners.

          • Kemper Boyd

            Fair point. To be honest I wrote it first then edited and I only had Kell(e)y x2 and Keith as safe. I feel like Tasha has a week, she’s quite middling in that whatever the reason for getting rid of someone there should be someone a bit worse/better than her.

          • Roswulf

            I’d add that even the 100% safe folks could fall to a bad tribe split if enough of them are on the same tribe and there are not more urgent threats to the majority. Put two of Woo, Wiggles, and Wentworth with four solid Bayons (meaning not Stephen, not Kass), and things aren’t looking great for the letter W.

            So…it’s pretty much just Keith I can’t see being bounced in any scenario.

          • andythesaint

            Kelley has the idol. And left the game last time due to a swap. If she’s in danger even a little bit, she’s playing it.

            100% safe.

          • Roswulf

            Totally true, I blanked on the idol.

          • Kemper Boyd

            Truly valid point.

          • Purplerockmatt

            yea i don’t have your same faith that Tasha is safe because I still think there will be Cagayan targeting

          • Kemper Boyd

            I forgot that element, I went straight to them individually even after I’ve been telling Other Scott that they will be assuming Tasha and Spencer would be working together. I fully admit this mistake.

          • Kemper Boyd

            I also want you to know that tomorrow as I sit at my lunch break (where I watch Survivor as it’s on at 1am here) and that happens I will think of you and say “damn, poor Matt”.

      • purplerockpodcast

        I guess it’s only fair that after Shirin got taken out, everyone wants Savage to go home. Our audience clearly hates us and roots for our sadness.

        • Roswulf

          That’s not fair, we root for your anger AND sadness.

          Go Woo Go!

  • Barbara Anderson

    I voted for Savage, but not because I am being a troll. If you read the brief episode description provided by CBS (which I guess is spoilery, but it doesn’t flat out say Savage did it. However, if it is spoilery, I will delete this message), it says something about how someone gets caught talking to somebody on another tribe. I can only see that really impacting Savage either way, unless I am really stupid. After all, Savage will be desperate to keep that his alliance 5 strong.

    • Purplerockmatt

      i fully acknowledge that in a swap savage could be one of the most vulnerable, but i’m not sure that description makes sense for Savage

      • purplerockpodcast

        It only does if he really is the guy he was in Pearl Islands, and he’s just adhering to his “It’s all of us to the end” speech he gave.

        • Barbara Anderson

          And to be perfectly honest, I don’t see much that says he has changed since Pearl Islands. After all, he is going after the nerdy guy on his tribe.

    • andythesaint

      Things in CBS descriptions are fair game.

      • Barbara Anderson

        Okay, good to know!

  • gouis

    Again, I see some people voting for Savage, but being a clear favorite? If he goes home I’m calling shenanigans again.

    • Other Scott

      I’m trying to avoid voting for this very reason, but I probably would have voted either Savage or Abi, having not seen the tribe divisions.

      • Kemper Boyd

        If you want to see the poll throw a vote on Keith or someone you feel is 100% safe.

        • Other Scott

          The point is I don’t want to see the poll because I’m not convinced it’s spoiler free yet.

          • andythesaint

            A good idea. It was part of the compromise: those that are worried can avoid the results.

            Unless we keep talking about them here, that is.

          • Other Scott

            Curse you, gouis!!!!

          • Kemper Boyd

            Ahhhhhhh, good call on your part.

    • purplerockpodcast

      Without saying anything about tribe divisions (which I’ve now seen, and assume most voters had seen), I’m not actually that concerned about him being the clear favorite here.

    • andythesaint

      This one isn’t setting off the same alarm bells for me. There’s an incredibly STRONG anti-Savage sentiment out there on the internet, added to the fact that people enjoy needling Matt about it. Since he’s one only a handful of characters with a story so far, that all adds up for me as making sense.

  • Diego Armando

    I’m going with Stephen, since him not fitting in with his group is the only real story thread going into this episode. The show also has not really shown him feeling ostracized, so I don’t see a revenge angle coming.

  • sharculese

    Guys, this only just occurred to me so sorry if it’s already been discussed and I’m just super dumb – did wardrobe tell Varner to wear a tie because he lost in a tie? He’s the only one whose outfit is significantly different from what he wore the first time now I’m wondering if it was an intentional choice to create that visual pun.

    • Purplerockmatt

      oh wow that would be amazing

    • Barbara Anderson

      That would be great, although I wonder if him and Kimmi are wearing blue because Kucha’s tribe color was blue. After all, they couldn’t wear all of their Reebok garb that they got in the Outback.

      • sharculese

        Wait is Varner’s shirt not a lilac-y purple? This is not the first time I’ve gotten into a disagreement about that tint of purple, so I’m not ruling out the possibility that I have a very specific color blindness.

        • Barbara Anderson

          I think it is blueish-purple. Kelly is in a yellow-orangeish top because Tagi was in orange.

          • sharculese

            I honestly couldn’t tell you what Kelly is wearing that’s how little she’s been on screen.

          • Barbara Anderson

            It’s like a yoga top thing. What’s sad about Kelly is that her horrendous bathing suit from Borneo is one of (arguably) the top ten most iconic items of Survivor clothing, and she can’t wear something to honor that because A.) It wasn’t Orange and B.) Reebok doesn’t sponsor the show anymore.

        • purplerockpodcast

          I think it’s purple. But my wife has told me many times that I’m terrible at determining color.

        • Kemper Boyd

          I too thought it was lilac, a purple not a blue. Are all the contestants wearing their original tribe colours? I know that Tasha, Kass and Spencer all have green like the first time out.

          • Barbara Anderson

            I think they are either wearing their original tribe colors or something to represent what they wore the first time. So, Savage is in a business suit since he had to wear whatever was on his back in Pearl Islands. Abi Maria is wearing a similar brown jacket to what she wore in the Philippines along with her yellow underwear to represent Tandang. I am really confused why she is wearing a red dress in that regard, since Tandang was yellow, but oh well.

          • purplerockpodcast

            Maybe it’s just another example of the exceptional attention to detail often exhibited by Survivor’s social media team.

  • Sophia

    There are no spoilers for this week, so you should be fine.

    I’m really worried about Stephen.

    • Kemper Boyd

      I live with the believe that there are always spoilers.

      • Sophia

        Unless you are one of the contestants or friends with them… This season has been relatively unspoiled aside from the first two boots and a couple of other things.

        • Kemper Boyd

          Oh wow, then awesome. I’m still raw from having HvV spoiled.