We’re back on the predictions beat to try and figure out what will happen post-merge in Survivor Cambodia. We don’t really know what we’re doing.

Staff Predictions

We usually post a staff chat where we all talk through our predictions, but a combination of me being sick on the day we usually do them and our attempt at doing a chat being nearly impossible to follow due to how crazy the game is right now had me tapping out. The compromise was just getting everyone to send me their thoughts to go along with those John and I already shared on the podcast.

Andy: While I think the initial target will be Savage, with the Ta Keo 5 alliance getting enough of the swing votes to make a move, I think Tasha will let her long bubbling issues with Kass blow up into a full on argument. And that will piss Kass off enough to insist that Tasha becomes the target. Kass takes out another Cagayan buddy.

John: It’s Savage this week, both because he is destined to be the merge boot and because Kass and that 5-person alliance will decide it should be him. Spencer and Abi jump on board with them because Savage tried to burn Spencer and Abi is Abi.

Emma: While the craziness of the vote has me flirting with the possibility of it being Kass, and I admit to liking your arguments for Tasha, I’m ultimately going with Savage. The storyline with him and Stephen has been clearly laid out, and Ciera is now probably gunning for him, giving Stephen a safe place to land outside his alliance with Jeremy. I think the Ta Keo 5 manages to stick together for this vote and pulls in at least Kimmi and Stephen as well. Possibly Jeremy due to him seeing which way the wind blows. The real wildcard that could ruin this though, is of course Abi.

Mark: My prediction this week is Kass. I think the two big factions alluded to in the preview are Bayon Strong, led by Savage, taking revenge against the misfits of old alliances. (This might be where Stephen jumps from Bayon.) Because there are so many people, not only are there two large factions, but lots of smaller factions within each side.  With Abi, Spencer, and Wiggles as free agents, I think Kass will be high on sending Savage a message from last week and relishing her power, but it will turn into a Cagayan mess where, ironically, Kass is the new Sarah and gets blindsided as a wild card. Not just in Tribal last week, but slowly over the last few weeks, Kass has been ramping up in the edit lately and it might be her turn to go.

Matt: Basically, I think that Savage is a potential easy vote. I think there are a lot of people that may target him, and I’m not sure how good he will be at winning them back over. His best chance to survive is to drop below the radar and play a more opportunistic game while bigger alliances feud. Or drop below the radar while someone else makes a mistake (like if Tasha were to blow up at Abi, or Kass were to reinforce her flipper image to the group at large). But the thing about this vote is that I don’t think there are any big tight alliances. The tight alliances are tending to be smaller, so I’m not sure how well they will hold together. So I am saying Savage because I can most clearly see the scenario where he goes. But I think he is a somewhat easy vote for people here and I am not sure this group will go for an easy vote.

Chat Sample

While piecing together predictions from this week’s mess was all but impossible, our prediction chat did unearth this gem…

Matt: So… is Abi now guaranteed to go to like final five?

Andy: That’s the problem with Abi. Everyone knows how to win her over. No one knows how to keep her. I think she’s going deep.

John: At some point, people are going to get tired of getting burned by her. But it’s not now.

Matt: Yeah, I’m trying to figure out when that would be.

Andy: The problem is that as soon as you talk about getting rid of her, you open up an opportunity for the other side.

Matt: Exactly

Andy: That’s what happened to Peih Gee.

John: Yeah, you have to play that one extremely close to the vest.

Emma: That girl is poisooooooooonnnnnnnnnn
[dance break]

John: Never trust a big butt and a smile!

Andy: Never trust a big… Yeah, that.

Emma: OH MY GOD, IT IS ABI!

Matt: Oh, so here is something: what if Tasha doesn’t blow up at Kass… she blows up at Abi? That I could definitely see happening.

Andy: Then it’s definitely her.

Matt: Agreed.

Andy: I’ve heard that if you cross Abi, you’re dead to her.

Matt: Dead

Emma: That is true.

Andy: It might have been online or something. Not sure where.

Matt: I think Fishbach said it.

Emma: That’s a good point though, because Tasha really wanted to work with Woo, I bet. And she’ll rightly suspect that Abi had something to do with it.

Matt: Because Abi had everything to do with it. haha

Emma: Kass will be on board to vote out Tasha, especially over Savage. She does have a crush on him, after all hahah

John: You women. Always thinking with your ladyparts.

Emma: BTW, according Woo’s exit interview on RHAP… apparently the first thing Abi said to him is how she has a crush on him.

Andy: I thought we knew that from Josh’s pregame. Or some pregame. I know that Abi mentioned Woo in a suggestive way.

Matt: Woo must have felt like the guy in Fatal Attraction.

Emma: We knew she liked him, but that she actually said that to him amuses me.

Andy: It is very Abi

Emma: Like, she straight up was like, “I think you’re hot and you were so funny on your season. I like you.”

Matt: I wish we had seen that.

Andy: I’m coming all the way around on Abi at this point.

John: Phrasing.

Andy: Like, if those players aren’t going to do what they need to do, then I’m not going to hold it against her.

John: PHRASING! Jesus, Andy.

Predictions

	Andy	John	Emma	Mark	Matt	Readers
First Out	Abi-Maria	Kelly	Abi-Maria	Spencer	Spencer	Vytas
Second Out	Abi-Maria	Abi-Maria	Terry	Abi-Maria	Peih-Gee	N/A
Third Out	Abi-Maria	Kimmi	Joe	Jeremy	Monica	Savage
Fourth Out	Tasha	Varner	Abi-Maria	Abi-Maria	Abi-Maria	Abi-Maria
Fifth Out	Kimmi	Kimmi	Monica	Monica	Spencer	Monica
Eighth Out	Tasha	Savage	Savage	Kass	Savage
Score
Preseason Winner Pick	Monica	Varner	Kelley	Monica	Varner	Kelley
Quarter- Season Winner Pick	Kelley	Tasha	Kelley	Jeremy	Jeremy	Kelley

Reader poll

What do you guys think? Check the appropriate button (unless you’ve been spoiled) and leave a comment at the bottom if you’re up for it.