Survivor Cambodia Week 7 Predictions and Poll

We’re back on the predictions beat to try and figure out what will happen post-merge in Survivor Cambodia. We don’t really know what we’re doing.

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Staff Predictions

We usually post a staff chat where we all talk through our predictions, but a combination of me being sick on the day we usually do them and our attempt at doing a chat being nearly impossible to follow due to how crazy the game is right now had me tapping out. The compromise was just getting everyone to send me their thoughts to go along with those John and I already shared on the podcast.

Andy: While I think the initial target will be Savage, with the Ta Keo 5 alliance getting enough of the swing votes to make a move, I think Tasha will let her long bubbling issues with Kass blow up into a full on argument. And that will piss Kass off enough to insist that Tasha becomes the target. Kass takes out another Cagayan buddy.

tasha-eyerolls

John: It’s Savage this week, both because he is destined to be the merge boot and because Kass and that 5-person alliance will decide it should be him. Spencer and Abi jump on board with them because Savage tried to burn Spencer and Abi is Abi.

Cambodia- Savage at tribal council sad face

Emma: While the craziness of the vote has me flirting with the possibility of it being Kass, and I admit to liking your arguments for Tasha, I’m ultimately going with Savage. The storyline with him and Stephen has been clearly laid out, and Ciera is now probably gunning for him, giving Stephen a safe place to land outside his alliance with Jeremy. I think the Ta Keo 5 manages to stick together for this vote and pulls in at least Kimmi and Stephen as well. Possibly Jeremy due to him seeing which way the wind blows. The real wildcard that could ruin this though, is of course Abi.

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Mark: My prediction this week is Kass. I think the two big factions alluded to in the preview are Bayon Strong, led by Savage, taking revenge against the misfits of old alliances. (This might be where Stephen jumps from Bayon.) Because there are so many people, not only are there two large factions, but lots of smaller factions within each side.  With Abi, Spencer, and Wiggles as free agents, I think Kass will be high on sending Savage a message from last week and relishing her power, but it will turn into a Cagayan mess where, ironically, Kass is the new Sarah and gets blindsided as a wild card. Not just in Tribal last week, but slowly over the last few weeks, Kass has been ramping up in the edit lately and it might be her turn to go.

kass-whats-going-to-happen

Matt: Basically, I think that Savage is a potential easy vote. I think there are a lot of people that may target him, and I’m not sure how good he will be at winning them back over. His best chance to survive is to drop below the radar and play a more opportunistic game while bigger alliances feud. Or drop below the radar while someone else makes a mistake (like if Tasha were to blow up at Abi, or Kass were to reinforce her flipper image to the group at large). But the thing about this vote is that I don’t think there are any big tight alliances. The tight alliances are tending to be smaller, so I’m not sure how well they will hold together. So I am saying Savage because I can most clearly see the scenario where he goes. But I think he is a somewhat easy vote for people here and I am not sure this group will go for an easy vote.

ciera-hold-the-phone
Oh no! Savage has even lost Matt!

Chat Sample

While piecing together predictions from this week’s mess was all but impossible, our prediction chat did unearth this gem…

Matt: So… is Abi now guaranteed to go to like final five?

Andy: That’s the problem with Abi. Everyone knows how to win her over. No one knows how to keep her. I think she’s going deep.

John: At some point, people are going to get tired of getting burned by her. But it’s not now.

Matt: Yeah, I’m trying to figure out when that would be.

Andy: The problem is that as soon as you talk about getting rid of her, you open up an opportunity for the other side.

Matt: Exactly

Andy: That’s what happened to Peih Gee.

John: Yeah, you have to play that one extremely close to the vest.

Emma: That girl is poisooooooooonnnnnnnnnn
[dance break]

John: Never trust a big butt and a smile!

Andy: Never trust a big… Yeah, that.

Emma: OH MY GOD, IT IS ABI!
cambodia-_abi_maria_booty_2_360

Matt: Oh, so here is something: what if Tasha doesn’t blow up at Kass… she blows up at Abi? That I could definitely see happening.

Andy: Then it’s definitely her.

Matt: Agreed.

Andy: I’ve heard that if you cross Abi, you’re dead to her.

Matt: Dead

Emma: That is true.

Andy: It might have been online or something. Not sure where.

Matt: I think Fishbach said it.

abi-youre-dead

Emma: That’s a good point though, because Tasha really wanted to work with Woo, I bet. And she’ll rightly suspect that Abi had something to do with it.

Matt: Because Abi had everything to do with it. haha

Emma: Kass will be on board to vote out Tasha, especially over Savage. She does have a crush on him, after all hahah

John: You women. Always thinking with your ladyparts.

Emma: BTW, according Woo’s exit interview on RHAP… apparently the first thing Abi said to him is how she has a crush on him.

Andy: I thought we knew that from Josh’s pregame. Or some pregame. I know that Abi mentioned Woo in a suggestive way.

Matt: Woo must have felt like the guy in Fatal Attraction.

Emma: We knew she liked him, but that she actually said that to him amuses me.

abi-heart

Andy: It is very Abi

Emma: Like, she straight up was like, “I think you’re hot and you were so funny on your season. I like you.”

Matt: I wish we had seen that.

Andy: I’m coming all the way around on Abi at this point.

John: Phrasing.

Andy: Like, if those players aren’t going to do what they need to do, then I’m not going to hold it against her.

John: PHRASING! Jesus, Andy.

Predictions

Andy John Emma Mark Matt Readers
First
Out
S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_kelly_tKelly S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria S31_spencer_tSpencer  S31_spencer_tSpencer Vytas
Second
Out
S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria   Terry Abi-Maria
Peih-Gee  1024px-Red_x.svg N/A
Third
Out
S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  Kimmi Joe
Jeremy  Monica S31_andrew_t Savage
Fourth
Out
Tasha S31_jeff_tVarner S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria 
Fifth
Out
Kimmi Kimmi Monica Monica
S31_spencer_tSpencer  Monica
Eighth
Out
Tasha Savage
Savage
Kass
Savage

Score 0-red 0-red
Preseason
Winner
Pick
S31_monica_tMonica  S31_jeff_tVarner S31_kelley_t Kelley S31_monica_tMonica   S31_jeff_tVarner  S31_kelley_t Kelley
Quarter-
Season
Winner
Pick 
S31_kelley_t Kelley Tasha S31_kelley_t Kelley
Jeremy  Jeremy  S31_kelley_t Kelley

Reader poll

What do you guys think? Check the appropriate button (unless you’ve been spoiled) and leave a comment at the bottom if you’re up for it.

Who will be the eighth out of Survivor Cambodia?

  • Andrew Savage (42% Votes)
  • Kass McQuillen (30% Votes)
  • Tasha Fox (13% Votes)
  • Ciera Eastin (5% Votes)
  • Jeremy Collins (3% Votes)
  • Stephen Fishbach (2% Votes)
  • Spencer Bledsoe (2% Votes)
  • Kelley Wentworth (2% Votes)
  • Abi-Maria Gomes (2% Votes)
  • Joe Anglim (2% Votes)
  • Kelly Wigglesworth (0% Votes)
  • Kimmi Kappenberg (0% Votes)
  • Keith Nale (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 64

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Andy
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Andy

Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
Andy
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  • Barbara Anderson

    What’s funny is in your preview cast (which I happened to be listening to this morning), you mention that Savage could go in the 7 to 13 range. Will you be right? I hope it is 13th.

    • purplerockpodcast

      I’m still incredibly confident in that range I gave. It just makes sense for him to go right around the middle.

  • Kemper Boyd

    Jeremy was keeping the meat shields around for this right? To burn post merge, the merge is just earlier than expected. So Savage or Tasha would make sense if that’s the way the wind blows. I see Tasha being just as affected by a blow up with Kass as Kass would be, Kass has real bonds with her alliance so will they be annoyed enough at her for having a row with Tasha to turn on her? I doubt it. Plus Kass doesn’t get loud or mad she sits calmly as the person goes off at her, so it makes her opponent look really bad.

    • Purplerockmatt

      I think most of the staff thought that if Tasha blew up at either Kass or Abi she would become the target. Andy was just the only one to put that in his prediction, the rest of us stuck to Savage

      • Kemper Boyd

        It was one of those general thoughts not a disagreement with you guys. I usually agree with you guys. I just got into a debate with Barbara in the live blog about that trailer showing Kass being the target, as I like you guys don’t think it’s her blowing up, she never blows up. The thing with a merge this big is we’ve never seen it happen and how this many people can make a decision when it’s an individual game so I don’t know what I’d predict if I were you guys.

        • Purplerockmatt

          yeah we didn’t include the entire chat because it was looooooong, and because we got really off topic as the Poison discussion illustrated, but we basically started off with “we have no idea about anything right?”

          • Kemper Boyd

            I am super hyped for the post-merge game, so hyped I’m considering staying up to watch it despite the fact I have a builder coming at 8am to start taking the tiles up in my bathroom. So it’s be like 5 hours sleep if I decide to stay up. The complete uncertainty in the game is so exciting. Especially as all the players are all-stars thus there is no cannon-fodder (except Wiglesworth).

          • purplerockpodcast

            You can pass the time by watching old episodes of GBBO! The finale of the Kimberly/Ruby season airs here next week. And I started watching season…six (the one with Tamal, Nadiya, and Ian)? I’m about halfway through now.

          • Kemper Boyd

            yep season 6. It’s a good one.

    • gouis

      Jeremy is playing incredibly. He might pull this out and become one of our all time greatest winners.

      • Kemper Boyd

        If he manages it with a strategy he out in place on day one then yeah he’s up there for sure, it would take A LOT for him to knock Kim Spradlin off the top of my list of all-time winners. I think he’s playing well but I think he’s susceptible to a blind-side with idol in his pocket, because he is very sure of himself.

        • gouis

          Yeah that’s why I said ‘one of’. I don’t really care all that much to argue about who is #1 vs #5, it’s more of a tier-ing.

          • Kemper Boyd

            You are right. I just take number of times it took to do it into account in my head, which is why Boston Rob isn’t extremely high.

  • Diego Armando

    My guess is Stephen. I think he is going to push too hard to oust Joe or Kelley and Joe’s 5 plus some of the free agents are going to target him.

  • sharculese

    I get why people expect Tasha to blow up at Kass but… making a huge deal about the bonds she made on Angkor is the single dumbest thing she could do, right?

    • Other Scott

      I don’t know about single dumbest, but it would be pretty dumb. And as much as Tasha seems to rub a lot of people the wrong way, she is not a dumb Survivor player.

    • purplerockpodcast

      No, the single dumbest thing she could do is say “Abi, I trust you completely. Let’s do this!”

      • Other Scott

        Nah, saying that to her is a good move.

        Actually trusting her completely on the other hand…

      • sharculese

        I totally agree that if she tries to re-team with Abi it will burn her down the road, but I feel like blowing up about voting off Woo is the equivalent of announcing “I’d prefer not to be on the jury, please.”

    • andythesaint

      I think it would be less about Angkor or Woo and more about how she allowed herself to trust Kass again, even a little, that I think could result in what I’m predicting. Just the thought that Kass could have burned her again, even a little, could make her screw up, if only for a moment.

      • sharculese

        Yeah I buy that. I dont think your wrong about the possibility of it happening. But outside of someone who hasnt yet done it trting to ally with Abi, oh man, i just cannot imagine a wprse decision that is available to anyone right now.

  • sharculese

    My prediction for this week is that at least one person lies about knowing a Cambodian word that means something like ‘second chance’ or ‘opportunity.’

    • Purplerockmatt

      crisatunity!

      • sharculese

        The cambodian word for crisis is the same as their word for Abi-Maria.

  • sharculese

    My other prediction is that every week Spencer remains on the show increases the chances we get an awkward reunion segment where Probst goes into the audience to interrogate his girlfriend.

    • Roswulf

      So what, we’re at 130% now?

      • Barbara Anderson

        “Has Spencer told you that he loves you yet? Did that embarrass you to hear him talk about it on national television?”

        • purplerockpodcast

          “Spencer, tell her you love her right now. DO IT!”

          • Barbara Anderson

            God, I just got a vision that he may propose to her at the reunion. Please do not make it so.

          • Purple Rock Emma

            Too young, too young, too young!

          • Barbara Anderson

            I know but this is Spencer. He knows what makes “good television” and proposing at the live reunion would be it. He could also justify it as being the capper to his “Gamebots need love too” storyline.