Survivor Cambodia Week 9 Predictions and Poll

We’re one elimination away from the midway point (in terms of number of players). Read on to see how the staff came to their predictions of who the tenth boot will be in Survivor Cambodia.

pr_predictionsbnr_480

Challenge Predictions

Andy: So… is there any point to us doing these predictions when we’re so awful at them?

Matt: Even more of a point!

Emma: The readers probably enjoy laughing at us.

Andy: But our logic wasn’t bad. Stephen was on the line for a while.

And, STEPHEN NEVER BEAT SAVAGE. The edit never pointed there.

savage-middle-finger

John: Oddly, none of us threw out Kelley as a possibility.

Emma: Well, we know she has an idol

Andy: She has an idol. We’re not stupid.

John: No, I meant as a target, sorry.

Matt: Yeah, I was surprised they targeted her.

kelley-wentworth-make-a-move

Emma: Anyway, I think things could really blow up next week.

Matt: I disagree; I think Savage going shakes the majority enough they look for an easy vote or perhaps target Kelley because of a new danger.

Andy: I think the Stephen vs Joe tension is something that could be exploited.

Emma: Joe was protected by Savage. None of the others were really opposed to voting for him.

John: Two part question, then, because it’s relevant to Joe:
1. Who jumps off for that advantage next week and gets to it first.?
2. Does it actually help them beat Joe in a challenge (if it’s that kind of advantage)?

Andy: I’m guessing the advantage is hidden idol related. And… shouldn’t Joe go for it? Doesn’t he have a better chance at out-swimming everyone than out-standing on small footholds?

John: YES. Because I’m assuming that’s a reward challenge they’re competing in. If it’s the immunity challenge, the decision is much tougher.

Andy: I don’t think it’s a reward challenge. They don’t tend to do endurance challenges for reward. Because you get people to give up endurance challenges with the temptation of reward.

John: But who gives up a shot at immunity for a shot at something that might help you be immune?

Matt: Someone who knows they are losing that challenge

fishbach-ball-drop

Emma: STEPHEN! (It’s never his challenge)

Andy: Stephen isn’t out-swimming anybody.

John: Stephen and Ciera, haplessly flailing towards the advantage!

John: Yeah. They probably both drown. And Abi floats on their unconscious bodies out to the buoys.

Matt: And then complains about it.

Andy: But, this is a serious question for Joe. He probably has better odds in a swimming challenge… but, he needs immunity.

Emma: Yeah, and if he gets the idol, he’s just going to have to use it that night anyway, right? Like, the move has to be to immediately flush it.

Andy: Who outswims Joe in a race? Maybe Wiglesworth?

Matt: She can’t even out-paddle Gervase.

wiglesworth-couldnt-swim

John: If she jumps in fast enough, maybe.

Andy: But Wiglesworth probably doesn’t go for it.

John: Yeah, she’s just…inert. Strategically, at least.

Emma: Yeah, Wigles DGAF.

Andy: Right, her MO is to just compete (especially because this is a challenge she could win). Whereas, this is a tough challenge for a big dude. I mean, Joe could still win it because he has great balance and all the yoga stuff, but still. He’s tall.

John: So if this is taking place at the immunity challenge, I don’t think Joe jumps.

Andy: Because bird in hand?

John: And I think he ends up winning.

joe-immunity

Mark: Really?

John: Yes. Because the advantage is an unknown. Immunity is a known quantity.

John: Do we think that everyone on the bottom jumps?

Emma: I think most the girls are going to jump in.

John: Ciera, Abi, Kelley, Stephen, all racing?

Emma: So Joe’s female competition is basically Tasha and Wigles. Wigles could win the challenge, but idk man, Joe is something else.

Matt: Oddly, I think Wigles is the tougher competition there.

Emma: I agree.

Matt: Joe really is absurd.

Andy: The issue is that endurance challenges also come down to motivation. Who’s more motivated to win immunity than Joe? Maybe Wentworth, but maybe she gets the advantage because she knows that idols and challenges are connected this season.

Matt: Good point Andy.

John: Oh, I assume Kelley is jumping in. Just because for her the odds of getting/using that advantage are far more in her favor than winning that challenge.

wentworth-satisfied-nod

Mark: Good point. And Jeremy?

Andy: I have no assessment of Jeremy’s swimming skills. I imagine he’s adequate?

Matt: This is really not Jeremy’s challenge.

Emma: Too muscular for balance, yeah? And Jeremy already has an idol. I don’t think Jeremy wants the target of a known advantage.

John: Yeah, Jeremy shouldn’t. But because he’s in a great spot. He’s got connections everywhere and nobody seems to talk about it.

Matt: What about Spencer?

Matt: Spencer could easily win this race and is also tall.

Andy: This is true. But I think he’s flying UTR.

John: Spencer is an interesting one. He might jump in.

Matt: I think he does and I think he could win.

John: Because he’s in with that main group, but he’s on the fringes.

Matt: I think he is basically one of the few people in that main group that knows for a fact that they are on the bottom.

spencer-clusterexpletive

Andy: But isn’t that an argument to NOT put a target on you?

Matt: I think it could work both ways Andy.

John: Once the numbers get low enough, the target is on you anyway. When the time comes, have the advantage.

Andy: But is an advantage everyone knows about a great advantage?

John: Yes. Because you can lie about it.

Andy: Maybe the advantage is two votes?

Matt: I was thinking that Andy

Emma: Wouldn’t be shocking.

John: You can say it’s whatever you need it to be. Two votes, an idol, something else entirely.

Mark: Nah. Idols. Too conveniently timed.

Andy: Anyway, another very interesting twist for this season. Lots of great ideas. Survivor really stepped up their game.

keith-tuk-tuk

John: Yeah. To all the people that hate production interference: Fuck you. This is great. Super excited to see all the “There goes production saving Spencer again!” tweets.

Andy: Production really dropped the ball protecting Savage this week.

Matt: They tried to tell him to go after Stephen!

Andy: Where were the interviews convincing Kelley et al to target wimpy Stephen?

Boot Predictions

Matt: There are basically two scenarios this coming week and every week: Joe is immune or Joe isn’t immune.

John: Assume A) until B) happens.

Matt: Correct. So, assuming A, what happens?

Andy: It’s a tough dilemma: if you just want to get one prediction right, you could keep predicting Joe. But I feel like you may pile up Ls that way.

John: The smart move would be for Joe to get with the betas and take out Jeremy or Spencer. I’d probably get Spencer first, because there’s less blowback.

Mark: Or do they get out Ciera as a shit stirrer?

ciera-alliance-bottom

Andy: Fishbach. Joe should target Fishbach. Maybe with Spencer on his side.

John: Why? How does that help Joe?

Emma: I think it’s feasible for Joe to go with the girls

Mark: Agreed

Andy: Tres Amigas, Joe and Spencer. That gets you five. Keith and Kelly go with the numbers.

Emma: Joe has a relationship with Kelley and Ciera. Joe easily pulls in Keith.

John: Again, though, why? Joe’s path to the end is not alliances. It’s immunity.

Andy: Both would be nice.

Matt: But Joe needs an alliance to get rid of who he wants

John: Right. So grab the betas and take out Spencer or Jeremy.

jeremy-first-out

Matt: He doesn’t have the votes to get out Spencer.

Andy: That too.

John: Then Jeremy. He needs to take out challenge competition. He could even target Tasha. But she hasn’t been great at challenges so far.

Matt: I don’t think Keith and Kelly come over to take out Jeremy. Tasha, maybe.

Andy: Why are you against the plan of Joe voting out the person he wanted to vote out this week?

John: Because how does that help him?

Andy: Three more days.

Emma: Stephen wants to vote him out.

John: SO DOES EVERYONE ELSE!

Emma: Not as aggressively.

Andy: Jeremy doesn’t seem to want to, at least not in Joe’s eyes.

John: They might say otherwise, but he has to realize that’s not true.

Andy: I’m not convinced anyone was actually on board with Stephen’s plan. I think they were patronizing him. “Yeah, sure Stephen. Maybe we’ll do that”.

Emma: Might as well say yes to Stephen until Joe inevitably wins the challenge. Also this is less about should and more about would/could.

John: Right. So if you’re Joe and you want to make an actual move, it shouldn’t be Stephen.

Andy: Stephen might be the only move you can make.

Matt: I think there is value in targeting the loudest voice against you.

John: It should be someone that might keep you from the one thing that keeps you in the game.

Andy: Alright, lay out the “Joe votes out Spencer” plan. Because I don’t think it exists.

John: I’m not saying he could do it. I’m saying those two (Jeremy and Spencer) should be his targets.

Emma: If he can’t do it, they shouldn’t be his targets.

John: And he should put out feelers to see if Kelley, Abi, Ciera, etc. will even do it.

Mark: A Jeremy blindside, that is.

Andy: That’s four. Not enough.

John: Yes. I understand how numbers work. But those three are where you start.

Andy: Or… you start with an achievable goal. That’s also an acceptable outcome.

John: Yeah, so he takes out Stephen, and six days from now Spencer beats him in an immunity challenge.

Andy: REMOVING SPENCER IS NOT AN OPTION FOR HIM. STOP TALKING ABOUT IT.

ciera-eyeroll

John: You’re right. He should take out the guy that fails in the first 3 seconds of an immunity challenge. That will help Joe’s plan to go on an immunity streak.

Andy: What is your suggestion he should do that he can actually do then?

Mark: I think you’re kind of hung up on Joe Immunity Win.

Emma: Well what, should he target Keith then? Spencer came in second once. Keith came in second once.

John: If Wentworth gets the idol again, you go to her and say, “I’ve got a deal for you”. Joe is immune, gets his crew to put the votes on Kelley (or even Ciera, who Kelley plays the idol on). Joe indirectly calls the shot.

Andy: So… your plan is dependent on A) Kelley getting an idol and B) him knowing she gets the idol. If that unlikely scenario doesn’t come about, what should Joe’s plan be?

John: Joe gets the majority to split on Kelley/Ciera. Joe flips.

Matt: Do you think any of this will happen?

Mark: So are we actually predicting next week or writing fanfic?

Matt: John is writing fanfic.

Emma: He is apparently a bigger Joe fan than we realized.

joe-oiling-up

John: Ha! I hope Joe loses and just gets voted out. He won’t, though.

Andy: So Joe takes the leadership role in the alliance? Is this an option for him?

John: I think Jeremy is the leader, but he doesn’t show it. And now he can’t hide behind Savage.

Andy: But… you said Joe gets the call the shot.

Emma: Shhh, I think we’re returning to reality.

Mark: Right, now he hides behind Joe

John: For the love of god.

Andy: (This is the part where John acts like he’s not the one alone on an island and I’m the obtuse one).

more-ciera-eyes

John: “What should Joe do?” is not “What will happen?” Nor is it “What will Joe do?”

Emma: THIS IS A PREDICTIONS THREAD!!!

Matt: Then why are we talking about it in the predictions thread?!?

John: BECAUSE YOU GUYS ASKED THE FUCKING QUESTION!

Emma: Because you were predicting weird shit!

ciera-eye-rolls-more

Andy: Anyone want to make a real prediction then? Here’s what I got: the big alliance just gets back together and votes out Kelley.

Matt: Wentworth. Yep, exactly Andy (though it might be the same thing with Ciera).

Emma: Ironically, this time I’m picking Stephen.

Andy: If the alliance was to splinter, then Stephen.

John: I’m with Emma.

 wentworth-frustrated-nod

Andy: Wait, what?

John: “What should Joe do?” is not “What will happen?” Nor is it “What will Joe do?”

Andy: Now he’s just trolling us.

Matt: So wait, Joe organizes the Stephen vote? That is the prediction?

Mark: This got hostile. Break out the middle fingers.

John: Joe’s best move is not voting out Stephen (if he can control the vote). But that doesn’t mean he won’t do it.

Mark: Same as last week: between Ciera and Stephen. Alphas target Ciera as a shit stirrer because they’re scared of Wentworth. Underdogs target the one who wants their big guy out.

Andy: This is the part where I remind Mark he needs to pick one.

Mark: If you wait, haha. I’m going to land on the Ciera side. Stephen goes soon though. So much new negative content.

Matt: Actually wait… I’m predicting Ciera because Ciera and Kass is Ponderosa hell for Savage.

savage-kass-shitshow

Emma: If you need more explanation, I say Joe brings Keith and Spencer back to Kelley and gets out Stephen and then I get very sad and conflicted.

Mark: But he’s got his fairy godfireman.

Andy: For the record, I was going to discuss the potential of what Emma is suggesting, until someone decided to get into a weird discussion of what Joe should do instead of what Joe can do.

John: Oh man, we missed Andy covering his own hypothetical? I’m so sorry for taking up that time, guys!

Emma: Covering his actual prediction…

My prediction, actually.

Andy: My hypothetical that Emma and maybe you came to the same conclusion of? Yeah, that would’ve been a waste of time.

savage-finger-challengeMark: Save it for the podcast, boys.

Andy: You think I want to have this discussion again?

John: Ha. I do wonder if you guys think Andy and I are actually being hostile towards each other.

Mark: No you’re just catty. There’s a difference

Emma: LIKE CHICKS. JUST A COUPLE OF CATTY CHICKS.

Cambodia- Keith catfight fingers tribal council

Andy: Like two assholes with the exact same flaws.

Predictions

Andy John Emma Mark Matt Readers
First
Out
S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_kelly_tKelly S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria S31_spencer_tSpencer  S31_spencer_tSpencer Vytas
Second
Out
S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria   Terry Abi-Maria
Peih-Gee  1024px-Red_x.svg N/A
Third
Out
S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  Kimmi Joe
Jeremy  Monica S31_andrew_t Savage
Fourth
Out
Tasha S31_jeff_tVarner S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria  S31_abimaria_tAbi-Maria 
Fifth
Out
Kimmi Kimmi Monica Monica
S31_spencer_tSpencer  Monica
Eighth
Out
Tasha Savage
Savage
Kass
Savage
Savage
Ninth
Out
Fishbach
Fishbach
Ciera
Fishbach
Fishbach
Fishbach
Tenth
Out
S31_kelley_t Kelley
Fishbach
Fishbach
Ciera
Ciera
question-mark
Score 0-red 0-red
Preseason
Winner
Pick
S31_monica_tMonica  S31_jeff_tVarner S31_kelley_t Kelley S31_monica_tMonica   S31_jeff_tVarner  S31_kelley_t Kelley
Quarter-
Season
Winner
Pick 
S31_kelley_t Kelley Tasha S31_kelley_t Kelley
Jeremy  Jeremy  S31_kelley_t Kelley

Reader poll

What do you guys think? Check the appropriate button (unless you’ve been spoiled) and leave a comment at the bottom if you’re up for it. Also, does this post still have value? Do you find it entertaining?

Who will be the tenth out of Survivor Cambodia?

  • Stephen Fishbach (27% Votes)
  • Ciera Eastin (25% Votes)
  • Joe Anglim (22% Votes)
  • Kelley Wentworth (13% Votes)
  • Kimmi Kappenberg (3% Votes)
  • Kelly Wiglesworth (3% Votes)
  • Tasha Fox (3% Votes)
  • Keith Nale (1% Votes)
  • Jeremy Collins (1% Votes)
  • Spencer Bledsoe (0% Votes)
  • Abi-Maria Gomes (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 67

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Andy
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Andy

Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
Andy
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  • Kemper Boyd

    If Wiglesworth is inert, does that make her a shoe-in to win this challange?

    • purplerockpodcast

      She may actually grow roots that adhere her to the floating doghouse thing.

  • Other Scott

    After all that, I love that John ended up predicting Stephen. I also love that Andy predicted his quarter season winner pick.

    • andythesaint

      Maybe I’m using my always-wrong weekly prediction to protect her?

      • Other Scott

        On the bright side, if you and Matt continue your streak of wrong predictions, then we are going to have a solid episode on our hands.

        • Purplerockmatt

          we pride ourselves at being so damn bad at this

          • sharculese

            I don’t feel like I’m speaking much against the sentiment of the community when I say this, but, just to say it, I’m glad that this is such a difficult thing to do. If it was easy to guess who was going home week to week I would not watch Survivor, because it would be a boring show.

          • Purplerockmatt

            I think we have a decent grasp on larger arcs but we are terrible at week to week predictions

        • Purplerockmatt

          also i’ve predicted the person that went out the week before 3 times now, so i really just need to start predicting people twice in a row

          • andythesaint

            Monica was two weeks before. Everyone I’ve picked is still in the game.

  • Roswulf

    Ah, that horrifying moment when you realize that you inadvertently clicked the button for the wrong Kell(e)y W.

    Oh well, maybe this is the week that Wigglesworth becomes one with the trees and disappears from he game officially. Not voted out you understand, literally becoming a plant.

    • andythesaint

      I can adjust it, if you want.

      • Roswulf

        Nah, I consider it divine intervention.

        Though I’m not sure WHICH god would intervene in an internet prediction poll against Kelly Wigglesworth. A very bored god I suppose.

        • Roswulf

          Heh.

        • andythesaint

          Bro.

    • gouis

      PROPHET!

      • Roswulf

        I’m absolutely devastated that I may have squandered the one genuine mystical experience of my life on predicting the ouster of Kelly Freakin’ Wigglesworth.

  • gouis

    I think it’s Kelley. While this time around has been light-years better than her previous experience, We haven’t gotten THAT much of a narrative for her beyond the idol thing. Her role to play was to shockingly idol someone out of the game, and be subsequently booted.

    • Kemper Boyd

      I agree. I am sad about it, but I agree.

  • andythesaint

    Because I wasn’t on the podcast and this chat quickly devolved, I never really got into why I picked Kelley. The answer is pessimism. Whenever these shocking idol plays happen, we always hope it’ll change the game in a more interesting direction. It often doesn’t. I think this will be another of those times it doesn’t.

    • Roswulf

      This ties into a larger issue with Survivor- frequently the best move for the players is to be boring. Wentworth is charismatic enough that you can’t feel comfortable dragging her to the end, so you have to bounce her EVENTUALLY. And there’s already a nice Boot Wentworth coalition in place. Why rock the boat and risk the eye of the majority turning your way?

      Naturally something dramatic like Joe being eligible for votes, or Kelley winning an undefined advantage could certainly send the equilibrium askew, but in the absence of such disruption, staying the course makes sense for most of the players left.

      • sharculese

        “Wentworth is charismatic enough”

        Words I never thought I’d be agreeing with.

      • Kemper Boyd

        After being super hyped about how this season felt like anything can happen, really apart from the glory of the Andrew Savage idol boot, it feels like it could be boringly predictable. Because for players like Jeremy and Tasha predictable is better.

    • gouis

      The only situation I can think of where this happened is when Russell was able to split the villains after ousting Tyson. He went into that 6-3 and came out with a 5-3 majority in the next vote.

      • andythesaint

        Also in Samoa when Russell played his idol and a Kelly went home.

        • gouis

          Early Russell was so fun.

  • turgid_legume

    Yes, sadly, I don’t think it looks very good for our Kelley. I hope it’s someone else, but I can easily see it being her. There would have to be a major shakeup for one of those three not to be the target and eventual boot.

  • Mike Hirsch

    Having followed the podcast for a while but also always being too lazy to actually sign up for the forum, I finally decided to today because I needed to say, “Not Wentworth!”

    So, yup. Said.

    Also, I pick Joe. His streak has to end at some point. Why not now?

    • Purple Rock Emma

      “…always being too lazy to actually sign up for the forum,”

      You sound like our kind of people then. Welcome!

      • Mike Hirsch

        Thanks!

    • sharculese

      There’s a very good chance this is the week Joe can’t pull it out. As Andy alluded to in predictions, there are a couple of Survivor staples that just aren’t tall people challenges, and this is one of them.

  • tocantins

    I think it is Ciera, her edit points to her not staying until the end, and if she is going, I think the time is now. My guess is that Wentworth gets the idol clue, and since no one knows if she got the idol or not and they can’t split the votes, they go for Ciera instead.

  • bder19

    I voted Joe, in part to troll but also because I know better than to go along with the predictions (0.080 batting average). But looking at the remaining players, it’s possible that Kimmi, Wigles, and Keith end up in the top 5 and that scares the crap out of me

  • Ethan Kyle

    I’m voting Joe because OH FOR THE LOVE OF GOD PLEASE JUST HAVE JOE GO HOME

    • Kemper Boyd

      The Joey Amazing act is really boring when he’s not a proper underdog. I’d happily see him go.

  • Diego Armando

    I’m going Wentworth. Jeremy is going to want to get a kill under his belt and take out one of the girls. Wentworth is easily the most dangerous, since she has the most connections.

  • Violina23

    John: Stephen and Ciera, haplessly flailing towards the advantage!
    John: Yeah. They probably both drown. And Abi floats on their unconscious bodies out to the buoys.

    Well played, I can TOTALLY see that happening.

    I think CIera’s time is up… but I’ve been wrong pretty much every week. 🙂

  • Austin

    So about Stephen not out swimming anybody…