Survivor Game Changers Week 11 Predictions

We have double-boot confirmation for this week. Prepare your Andrea predictions accordingly.

Boot Predictions

Andy: Since I can’t predict Andrea for both boots, she’s sure to survive the one I can predict her for. But I’ll go ahead and do it anyway: now that the threat of the Brad/Sierra pairing is neutralized (as it was the duo that worried people, not the individuals), I think it will be clear to everyone that Andrea is the biggest threat out there. So if she doesn’t win immunity (and she might!), the majority will cut ties with her and vote her out. Here’s hoping Troy wastes an idol in the process. After that, they’ll yada yada Aubry‘s elimination because it would be so weird for her to have been this invisible yet make it to the final episode.

John: Cirie has had a great shield in the form of Andrea for a while now, but that’s coming to an end here. Whether it’s via an idol play or simply having the group turn against her for being too big of a threat, Andrea is gone.

For the second vote, it’ll be Aubry. And I’m giving that as much thought as the show has given Aubry this season.

Emma: I’m sure the readers will manage to vote for Andrea in both spots, because they have that power. But I don’t. So instead I’m going to be bold and not include Andrea in either spot. I don’t think Cirie would be too emotional about targeting an ally, but I think she might have a harder time voting out a mentee. Perhaps Tai tells her that Michaela almost flipped at the last vote and Cirie can’t think of her as a loyal follower anymore. As for the second vote, man, we sure haven’t seen a lot of Aubry, right?

Matt: Andrea first because I have promised to keep predicting Andrea until I get it right or she wins. And then because I don’t cheat and predict the same person twice, I will say Aubry next. There is one other person I could see going in the second episode and that is Troy who I think will burn his idol on the first vote. So I could see Sarah continue to play the middle and eliminate him after the idol comes out, but nah I say they bury Aubry’s boot in the back half of Andrea’s boot episode

Mark: Ok, NOW it’s Andrea.

After that, the only reason I can think for Cirie’s wavering in the promo is a need to vote out a close ally. And she has no closer Padawan than Michaela. Besides, the minority would go along with the cannibalizing, and Aubry and Cirie know better than to go with a bunch of strong players to the end. I just hope she knows it’s coming this time and brings some tea.

Andy John Emma
Mark Matt
First or Second Boot
Aubry Ciera Ciera Ciera Ciera Ciera
Third Out JT Debbie Cirie JT Cirie JT
Fourth Out JT Sandra Sandra  Sandra Varner JT
Fifth Out JT Sandra JT JT JT JT
Sixth Out Debbie Debbie Sarah  Aubry Ozzy  Debbie
Seventh Out Varner   Tai
Varner Ozzy   
Eighth Out Michaela Cirie Cirie Ozzy    Michaela  Ozzy
Ninth Out Ozzy  Ozzy   Michaela  Hali    Cirie  Ozzy
Tenth Out Andrea
Cirie Andrea Zeke   Andrea Zeke
Eleventh Boot Andrea
Andrea Andrea Sierra
Andrea Andrea
Twelfth Boot Andrea
Andrea Andrea Sierra
Andrea Andrea
Thirteenth Boot Andrea
Andrea Michaela
Fourteenth Boot Aubry

Preseason Winner Pick Malcolm Tony
Andrea Malcolm

*Reminder: Scores from the seventh episode do not count due to spoilers.

Time to make your picks. And feel free to track how your personal picks do throughout the year. I won’t make mention of it or anything, but you can still feel good about it.

Who will be the twelfth boot from Survivor: Game Changers?

  • Andrea (51% Votes)
  • Aubry (22% Votes)
  • Michaela (11% Votes)
  • Troy (9% Votes)
  • Brad Culpepper (4% Votes)
  • Cirie (1% Votes)
  • Sarah (1% Votes)
  • Tai (1% Votes)

Total Voters: 85

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Who will be the fourteenth boot from Survivor: Game Changers?

  • Andrea (28% Votes)
  • Aubry (27% Votes)
  • Michaela (22% Votes)
  • Troy (14% Votes)
  • Cirie (6% Votes)
  • Brad Culpepper (2% Votes)
  • Sarah (1% Votes)
  • Tai (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 86

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When did you discover that the question marks in the header for predictions spell out "PRP"?

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Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
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  • Saturday Night Palsy

    You know what? I just noticed that the second question mark in the header up there looks a bit like Troyzan…

    • Sylvisual

      Poor sad Troy.

      • TheForRealDeal

        I have more sympathy for the poor sod behind him.

  • PurpleTally

    I’m glad to see I inspired a poll with my comment from last week about the header.

    Also, I voted for Andrea as first boot, because I’m nothing if not consistent. Michaela for the second boot because we can’t have nice things.

    • Taako From Teevhii

      It’s been mentioned throughout this season’s predictions. I kinda wish Andy hadn’t put that poll, just to see how many times it could come up naturally.

      • Saturday Night Palsy

        I was already gonna bring it up again. Not naturally.

        • Sylvisual

          *insert Troy joke here*

          • Saturday Night Palsy

            I rather not have Troy inserted anywhere!

          • PurpleTally

            Yeah, even I’m not that desperate.

      • purplerockandy

        I thought about that. But decided it was time to lampshade it.

  • Mike Hirsch

    Pfft, like forever ago on the question marks. You should do question Marks, and have one that’s Matt.

    And I said Andrea and Aubry because everyone else was doing it and I just wanted to be popular.

  • Ethan Kyle

    Yeah I think smart money is on Andrea (Whose story ended with Zeke going home weeks ago) and Aubry (What story lol)
    That will leave us
    Michaela and Tai
    Brad and Troyzan
    and Sarah … yay more stupid important shit coming down to darah

  • Saturday Night Palsy

    I said Sarah first. Michaela knows about the LA and wants it for herself. Boom! She blindsides Sarah. And Michaela has a mentor in this game. A mentor that has to go! Adios, Cirie. Michaela has this!

    • Super duper fan

      I wish I had as good imagination as you.

      • Saturday Night Palsy

        Imagination is all we had when I was a lad! That and Intellivisions!

      • Taako From Teevhii

        Hush now Super, that’s the tetanus fever talking.

        • Saturday Night Palsy

          How could I possibly have tetanus? Not only did I use leeches immediately, I also slept with an egg under my bed!

          • DrVanNostrand

            Careful, tetanus is probably a pre-existing condition.

    • BadPlayer91

      *standing ovation* Because Michaela is BAE

    • DrVanNostrand

      Wait, I thought this was the #SummerOfTroyzan!

      • Hornacek

        Troy(zan): We had a pact!

  • Taako From Teevhii

    Four reds in a row? What are the chances of that? Black’s due right about now right?

    Thirteenth boot: Andrea

    And following that, Culpepper will meltdown due to whatever it was that Michaela did or appeared to do, and his edit will have been for nothing. (but the Caleb vote! Winner material!)

    Fourteenth boot: Culpepper

    First or Second boot: Tony or Cirie (+1)
    Third boot: Cirie
    Fourth boot: Hali, Cirie, or JT
    Fifth boot: Hali, Ozzy, or JT (+1)
    Sixth boot: Sarah
    Seventh boot: Varner or Aubry
    Eighth boot: Michaela
    Ninth boot: Andrea
    Tenth boot: Andrea
    Eleventh boot: Andrea
    Twelfth boot: Andrea
    Pre-season winner: SDT
    Score: 2

  • Super duper fan

    I’m not making the same mistake like last week, and I’ll pick Andrea, even though I think she really could make the finale. Plus, I want to reverse-jinx her. She will either be blindsided by her own group with Troy wasting his idol, or be actually idoled out by Troy (ugh)…. which will officially end every bit of a small storyline he had, when he gets blindesided by Sarah, cause I don’t know of you guys know this, she’s playing like a criminal this time, not a cop.

    20/19.Ciera (CORRECT)
    18.Malcolm (WRONG)
    17.Tai/JT (WRONG)
    16.JT (CORRECT)
    15.Brad (WRONG)
    14.Varner (X)
    13.Troy (WRONG)
    9.Andrea (WRONG)
    8.Andrea (TBA)
    7.Troy (TBA)

    Pre-season winner pick: Hali (WRONG)
    Mid-season winner pick: Sarah (TBA)

  • What’s really #gamechanging is that according to your polls, there is no thirteenth boot this season.

  • Sylvisual

    Very tempted to troll that last poll.

    • Purplerockmatt

      When did you realize Mark?

      • Sylvisual

        That’s kind of like asking “do you remember the day you were born?”

        • Saturday Night Palsy

          I kind of feel like watching “Dead Ringers” right now.

      • DrVanNostrand

        Don’t you hate it when the rubes fail to appreciate your graphic design skills, Matt?

  • Side Character

    I’m gonna be different and say Aubry gets voted out first (I think Andrea wins immunity). They could throw the votes at Troy and he plays an idol correctly–because the show wants us to suffer–and then he and Brad vote Aubry (for whatever reason). Then they vote Troy the next time because they know he doesn’t have the idol. It also could be the other way where they vote Troy (with the idol in his pocket) and then Aubry gets booted because Brad wins immunity.
    I’m probably wrong, but you never know. Besides, what better way to get rid of two players we’ve barely seen than by putting their eliminations together in one episode? ‘Cause really, what are they going to say about their chances in the final episode? “They flew so far under the radar, you didn’t even know they were on this season.”

  • Blurry Denzel

    Blurry Denzel Power Rankings: These are the players most likely to win the game

    1. Sarah
    2. Brad
    3. Cirie
    4. Tai
    5. Andrea
    6. Michaela
    7. Aubry
    8. Troy

    My predictions for tonight is Aubry and Andrea, plus Troy unnecessarily playing his idol.

    If Aubry does leave, I need someone here to eulogize her game for me as I’m pulling a Fishbach and traveling this week.

    • Saturday Night Palsy

      Got your back.

    • Super duper fan

      I still have one female player whose name begins with ‘A’ to talk about, so I could always do it for you, in case SNP mysteriously dissapears…. it’s just a speculation of course.

      • Saturday Night Palsy

        Disappear? I can’t wait to talk about Audrey!

        • Violina23

          You mean the killer plant from “Little Shop of Horrors”, right? Oh wait, that’s Audrey II….

    • Diego Armando

      That seems about right.

    • Roswulf

      Seems roughly accurate- I’d further break them down by pairs. Sarah/Brad are likely winners, Cirie/Tai plausible darkhorses, Andrea/Michaela winning would be a huge surprise, and Aubry/Troy are apparently also still on the season.

  • pufflehuff

    My main hope for these last couple of episodes is that fun returns to this season, preferably with Cirie slaying and giggling in style. But I know this may be too much to hope for, so here is a drinking game for your beverage of choice for all the players left :

    brad: mentions monica (sip) /mentions monica the chicken (swig)
    tai: flirts with somebody (sip)/ flirts with jeff probst (swig)
    sarah: mentions ‘cop’, ‘criminal’ or ‘game-changer in confessional (sip)/ expresses emotion in confessional (swig)
    cirie: giggles (sip)/ giggles while bamboozling somebody at tribal council like a gangster (swig)
    troy: plays idol unsuccessfully (sip) / is then voted out (swig)
    andrea: falls over (sip) / wins immunity (swig)
    michaela: contains her emotions in strategic fashion (sip) / does not contain emotions in entertaining fashion (swig)

    bonus: ffsdt: has fixed her chipped nail for her jury stint (sip) / uses her platform as a juror to make an inspiring anti-bullying speech (swig)

    • Blurry Denzel

      Aubry is even invisible in a drinking game.

      • pufflehuff


        • Blurry Denzel

          You didn’t include her doing something as a drinking option.

          • pufflehuff

            I know, sorry just trolling 🙂

            But seriously it is tough to include Aubry + Andrea in this. Alongside the good Dr.’s suggestion, something like Aubry: gets excited about food (sip) / has a confessional where she talks about her position in the game and not just other people (skull!)

            I am with you on the tragedy of Aubry’s edit this season. I’m also really curious to evaluate her game once it’s all over – while the edit is definitely at fault here (for example, seems like she was doing a fair amount for the Debbie vote and would have loved to hear from her more there in particular) I’m also not sure how impressed I am with Aubry’s game.

            It’s hard to evaluate – as we can’t here her strategy – and in some ways obviously she has done well, similar-ish to Wentworth in Cambodia, moving between the chaos. But she hasn’t pulled any similar moves to get recognition, perhaps because she’s wary of being seen as too much of a threat. I’m really curious as to what she might try this episode – her plan can’t be to go to the finals with Cirie + Andrea, so now seems like a great moment for Aubry to switch something up.

      • DrVanNostrand

        Aubry: Gets a confessional (sip) / Makes it to the final episode (finish the bottle)

        • Ms. Sweaterfan

          /wins (freebase heroin)

        • Violina23

          Nicely done 😉

  • Diego Armando

    I am so terrible at this, so I selected Cirie and Michaela figuring it would not be them. I hope it is Sarah and Brad.

    • DrVanNostrand

      That would make this season the most baffling edit ever.

      • Diego Armando

        I am fine with that if they are both taken out and we can get a winner we care about.

  • BadPlayer91

    I assume that one of the votes is gonna be a fake-out about either Michaela or Sarah. Cirie will get the choice to team up with Brad to take out one of those two, prompting a teary ‘this is the hardest choice’ speech. But, I think this will be an editing shield to add drama rather than admitting that everyone calmly votes out Aubry or something similar. Or it could be an editing shield to add further drama to an idol play or advantage play. Something like that…

  • Alycia Swift

    For the third question, while I answered “literally just now”, the proper answer was – I did not notice at all. I had to go look at the header after answering the question because my actual answer was not an option.

  • turgid_legume

    It’s going to be so fucking sad when Aubry has a confessional to open the episode, Cowboy Rick style.

  • Carrots

    I agree with Matt, except I’d reverse the boot order. I think being the first boot in a double elimination is the less prestigious position, given that there’s (basically always?) no post-vote confessional.

  • tocantins

    I pick Troy and Michaela. (In that order, although the order is basically random.) I think that both Andrea, Aubry, and Cirie are getting to the final episode. And I think that is why we got such a horrible edit this season: the producers saw what happened at Kaoh Rong, and they thought that if Cirie, Aubry, and Andrea make it to the final episode, but none of them get to FTC, then fans would riot. So they completely murdered their edits, so that no reasonable person could go to the final episode expecting one of them to win.

  • Julie Brock

    You guys! I’ve discovered you tbis year and was thrilled at how you tackled soical issues that Rob won’t. I mean, two white dudes that mention that Haley couldn’t come back with a jt ir ozzy style weight gain, or that there might be REASONS Michela isn’t liked. You handeled the Varner/Zeke thing so well. And I could cheer for my favs with you, even though, I feel like I’m ther input person in earth who never ever wants to see tony on my small screen again, Rob is so neutral and we all wanted as much of the queen as we could get. But now… now…I’m miserable when I listen. I got busy the last two weeks and laid off the podcast for a while, and I realize that lately listening is making me enjoy the show less. Cerie is not invisible. Brad has been lately. Maybe he got a cute edit bc Probst loves him and wanted to give him a redemption story. Sure Sarah looks great, shes alsi playing a great game. We dont know who wins, even if we think we might, why not say, it looks like this, but hopefully that…why not discuss all possiblitles… cause I gotta tell you, you were my go to podcast for a sec, but now, I feel like I’m tuning in just to listen to people put down my favorite tv show…so I guess I want to know, is this how things normally go pist merge?

    • BadPlayer91

      I don’t believe they said Cirie is invisible. What they did say was, considering all the Cirie things she’s doing, the edit either gives the credit to someone else (mostly Sarah), or ignores those moves entirely. Cirie is visible while her strategic game is not, and I believe that is what was noted.

      I think the podcast continues to deliver on exactly what is promised: full, honest discussion of Survivor. John and Andy aren’t looking to ‘put down’ the show, but rather explore how this season compares to others. I believe everything they have discussed is extremely valid, given the narrowness of the edit, and the knowledge that numerous narrative arcs and strategic moves have been ignored or left on the cutting room floor. If you don’t agree with their analysis, that’s fine, and it’s why these comment sections exist. But as far as the podcast goes, to be overly optimistic about this season and its potential outcome would go against the intent of the podcast and would ignore the content presented by the show, which John and Andy have made a commitment to discuss.

      Further, John and Andy bring their own opinions and emotions to these podcasts. It is part of what sets them apart from ‘neutral’ podcasts which remain ambiguous about their own hopes for the season. I would argue this is part of the reason you liked listening to them in the first place; from what you wrote, it seems you often agreed with them. But that comes with a price, that sometimes you may not agree with them. If neutral podcasts avoid too much opinion so they don’t alienate listeners, PRP provides a healthy dose of opinion as a starting point for discussion. Personally, I would rather the podcast fuels interesting discussion than provides blind optimism about a season I don’t think looks too optimistic.

    • First, thank you for the compliment and critique. I like hearing what people don’t like about the podcast as well as what they enjoy.

      Secondly, we’re not suggesting Cirie is invisible. Our concern is that Cirie is such a bright, shining star of a presence that the fact that she isn’t the undisputed star of the season makes us fear she has no chance.

      We aren’t putting down the show (although I can see why you’d suggest our lack of enthusiasm for the outcomes we see as most likely is us insulting the show). The show can only give us the stories they were able to capture. And they can’t give us an “Aubry is winning” red herring because they have limited air time to cram several days of footage into.

      And we do generally discuss who is likely to win at various points post-merge, so in that sense this is often how the podcast goes. But we have been known to be more enthusiastic about the likely winners, though.

  • Ms. Sweaterfan

    Sorry to be such a backseat driver for the edit, but if Andrea is destined to be taken out in this episode as the biggest jury threat, this close to the finale (which I think she will be) then why in the eff did the editors ignore her so thoroughly in the pre-merge?? Imagine how shocking her ouster could be, if they’d played her up as a big character and strategic mastermind all along, instead of devoting so much of the edit to Sierra, and Debbie and even Ozzy. I’m envisioning an alternate reality where this week is the biggest episode of the season because obvious winner Andrea is shockingly voted out (perhaps because some of her allies flip) just a few episodes from the end.
    I mean, I guess it’s possible that she genuinely wasn’t doing anything worth showing in the pre-merge, but as a counter argument, was Sierra? Was Debbie???

  • pufflehuff

    Some fuel for the ‘Cirie can still win this’ train: she’s mentioned winning as her goal a lot. Am sure the Inside Survivor edit column also mentioned this, but I noticed it at the family visit, where she said she wanted to win and in her premiere confessional she also said that winning was the only thing left for her to do.

    NOW of course lots of people mention winning and then lose (probably more then win!) But I thought it was significant because the show could pull off some ‘ah, winning for Cirie is getting across the balance beam’ or whatever journey edit, but it’ll feel kind of weird, because she’s already been on that journey and go the ‘I’m a New Person Thanks to Survivor’ stamp. They also made a huge deal of her being a big threat in the premiere that had to be taken out immediately which is interesting as a) that story went nowhere due to the swap and b) she’s done an amazing job of slipping under the radar since then.

    Cirie definitely has the skills to win. She’s got just enough pre-merge story to win. Watch her reign kick into gear tomorrow…

    • Alkanarra

      I was thinking about it too, with why I would be disappointed with her edit, but maybe I’ve been presumptuous. Assuming she wins, let’s look at the story. They mostly ignore her pre-merge because she doesn’t go to tribal (except, as you mentioned, showing her “in danger” and as a threat.) Instead they use that time to build up her biggest opposition – Brad, Sierra, Sarah, Zeke, etc – as those are the people she would have taken down on her way to the finale.

      I’ve been unhappy with the positive vibes thrown at Brad and Sarah as that’s their “winner’s edit”, but at the same time they’re both playing good games, so they probably deserve recognition. Rather than a winner’s edit, this could be “worthy foes” edits, making Cirie’s opposition look more impressive. If Cirie knocks them off on her way the finals then at least those two got an edit that showed improvement while the winner isn’t beating up a bunch of Philip Shepards.

      Assuming an Andrea/Michaela/Cirie final three, we’ve also seen weaknesses out of both Andrea and Michaela, particularly them being over emotional, and how strongly they both rely on Cirie for their strategy. So the edit would demonstrate why the other FTC candidates lost.

      So…. yeah, I guess it makes sense. I tell myself I would have wanted a more obvious edit for her, but they did that with Redemption Island and One World and everyone hated it. The story of Cirie’s victory would make sense, given what they have shown us.

      I still have a bad feeling, but that might just be the PRP echo chamber getting to me.

      (I don’t, however, have any fucking idea what they’re doing with Aubry.)

      • pufflehuff

        Yeah, I still think it’s more likely that this is the story of a Brad or Sarah triumph, but Cirie can still take this! Brad’s story is a bit more puzzling to me than Sarah’s, if he doesn’t win. As Andy said on the podcast, Sarah is involved in a lot of plot towards the endgame, so it makes sense to include both her character and end-game moments. Brad’s edit is harder to justify just from plot. One option is that the show is giving him a redemption edit after throwing him under the editorial bus in Blood v.Water and he’s been set up as last challenger to the winner.

        I also think the coronation edit would be tough for Cirie this season as that’s not really how she’s been playing it (contrast with Sandra who clearly positioned herself as leader of an army.) I haven’t watched One World but for Redemption Island I don’t really see how they could have edited it much differently – Boston Rob was clearly just running rings around everybody else.

        Here, Cirie has been kept in the loop for the strategic story post-merge. Tavau is a real issue, but that’s equally true of Sarah, apart from that weird scene with Troy that went nowhere (cue obvious winner music!) But I think Cirie’s stealth game + dip in story is somewhat justified by the premiere: it was clear that she was a huge target, so she had to step back and play carefully and quietly.

        Also, yeah, no idea about Aubry and her total lack of story. Maybe she’ll have some Brenda in Caramoan sudden spurt of story/relevance, but it’s not looking so good…

  • Maritimer

    Breaking the mold. Not Andrea, she’s going in the Jay spot. It’s the two invisible edits: Aubry and Troy, in that order

  • Violina23

    I think Cirie’s going out at the final 4. I’m thinking Andrea… Aubry… Troy…. Tai…. Cirie.

    Then the Final 3 would be either:
    Sarah, Michaela, Brad

    Michaela gets zero votes (for “mysterious reasons”), Sarah gets a few (since she’s pissed off a lot of jury members), and then Brad wins because of the two greatest words in the English language: De-Fault.

  • Violina23

    BTW, the bottom half of the chart, which basically consists of a dozen pictures of Andrea’s face, is equal parts funny and creepy