Survivor Game Changers Week 3 Predictions and Poll

Time to make predictions again, this time with three cracks at getting two answers right.

Picking one from each tribe this week. Two tribes will go to Tribal Council.

Boot Predictions

Andy: I think there are things that Hali can do to get herself out the spot she’s in. Chiefly, convince Brad that she’d be a more helpful partner than the high-maintenance duo of Tai and Debbie. And I think this is what the show will be trying to convince us in the edit until Hali is unceremoniously voted out.

We don’t want Nuku to go to Tribal Council. We don’t even want to talk about it. Good news: it looks like Sandra is sitting in the challenge and Varner is the caller. So, they’ve got a shot. I think there’s avenues for JT to explore to get himself out of the hole, including becoming the meat shield that players like Sandra and Malcolm need, and/or something involving the idol. Unfortunately, it seems like he’s coming for Sandra. Come at the queen; you best not miss. JT will miss.

Tavua will all want to get rid of Troy because why wouldn’t they? They’ll assume he doesn’t have an idol. They will be wrong. He will target Andrea to try and even some kind of score with another beautiful smart woman who pwned him. His success will make you want to die.

John: Remember in the preseason when Hali suggested in interviews that she didn’t think she deserved to be here? I think this tribe will agree with her. Voting out Hali also allows them to look like they’re remaining loyal to their original tribe.

In the nightmare scenario where Dream Tribe Nuku has to vote someone out, I think it’s possible that JT can convince some people that he’s worth keeping around- probably by suggesting they vote out the only other remaining winner: Sandra.

Ideally, Troy would go home this week from Tavua (well, ideally he would never have been cast). But Troy has an idol, and even he must be aware that he’s an easy consensus target. So assuming Troy plays that idol, it’ll likely be Troy’s vote determining who goes home. And you know who Troy would want to send home? A clever woman. Cirie fits the bill, but Troy will want someone that looks more like the clever woman that punked him in One World. So Andrea it is.

Emma: Mana: Wishful thinking is going to get me somewhere one of these days. Hali certainly has a tough road ahead of her, but here’s hoping Debbie does something to prove she’s unreliable, causing the tribe leaders Brad and FFGCSDT (???) to vote her out instead.

Nuku: All we can do is hope that the beloved blue tribe wins the challenge once again. If they don’t, the combination of Sandra‘s threat and the fear of JT’s idol makes me think that we’ll have to say goodbye to the queen.

Tavua: The Troy-idoling-out-Andrea thing just makes too much sense for too many reasons. I’d like to differentiate more with my predictions (perhaps hence the Debbie prediction), but this one just fits too well. Unfortunately.

Mark: There’s big moves, a big twist and something unprecedented on the way! Two tribes go to tribal, one walks out. (Or they both walk out, who knows.) Since we don’t know the exact nature of the twist, I have to predict one person from each tribe, so here goes. On Mana, I think Debbie could annoy herself out of them game with Tai already willing to let her go and Brad and Hali bonding over the 1st Amendment. With Tavua, Troy is the obvious target, but he has an idol, so let’s say he uses it against Ozzy because there can only be one king of the jungle. Now, Nuku. Oh, Nuku. I love you guys, but I think the “unprecedented” thing is going to be votes against Sandra. Between fear of a JT idol and a clash of temperament, the GOAT is felled by a goat and the Queen goes adios.

Matt: If Mana goes to tribal, I say that Debbie goes home. Here is my thinking: I really want this to happen and am trying to wish it into existence. But to be serious for a moment, I think Brad and Sierra are pretty tight, I think Brad is tight enough with Tai to know he can use him, I think he will see utility in Hali and volatility in Debbie. Also I think he won’t want to take out Tai because that leaves him as the only guy, so it will be a woman and I think Debbie overplays her hand and goes home.

If Nuku, aka Awesome Tribe, aka Tribe That Better Not Go To Tribal Council, goes to tribal council, we lose one of our favorites. That much is guaranteed. Which one? UGH. I will say that it will not be JT. I bet they think JT may have an idol and after 6 days, JT’s charm may have worn them down a bit. BUT I also bet it won’t be JT’s target of choice in Sandra because I honestly think that tribe is afraid to cross Sandra. Which probably means it is Varner. GOD WHY IS THIS TRIBE SO AWESOME?!? So sure Varner. I don’t freaking know

If Tavua goes to tribal… hoo boy. So there is the Troy idol out there, and I think it will be played, so the question is whether they split or he gets to choose his target. I think Cirie will be wary of an idol seeing as she was idoled out last time round, so might push for a split, but I also don’t think Troy will target Cirie. I think Troy will target either Andrea (his Kim stand-in) or Ozzy (who he perceives as controlling the tribe). But if they do split, I bet that split falls on Cirie. So I say that they will not split because Ozzy is a blithely arrogant a-hole who will assume that Troy does not have an idol, and Troy targets Ozzy because Ozzy is a blithely arrogant a-hole who assumed he didn’t have an idol and made that abundantly clear to Troy. Troy idols out Ozzy and expects the rest of the tribe to fall into place behind his leadership (they won’t).

 
Andy John Emma
Mark Matt
Readers
First or Second Boot
Aubry Ciera Ciera Ciera Ciera Ciera
Third Out JT Debbie Cirie JT Cirie JT
Mana 4th/5th Boot Hali Hali Debbie Debbie Debbie question-mark
Nuku 4th/5th Boot JT Sandra Sandra  Sandra Varner question-mark
Tavua 4th/5th Boot Andrea Andrea Andrea Ozzy  Ozzy  question-mark
Score 0-red
Preseason Winner Pick Malcolm Tony
Malcolm
Andrea
Andrea Malcolm

Time to make your picks. And feel free to track how your personal picks do throughout the year. I won’t make mention of it or anything, but you can still feel good about it.

If Mana goes to tribal council, the following player will go home:

  • Hali (47% Votes)
  • Debbie (28% Votes)
  • Tai (19% Votes)
  • Brad Culpepper (4% Votes)
  • Sierra Dawn Thomas (2% Votes)

Total Voters: 108

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If Nuku goes to tribal council, the following player will go home:

  • JT (37% Votes)
  • Sandra (28% Votes)
  • Aubry (16% Votes)
  • Malcolm (13% Votes)
  • Jeff Varner (5% Votes)
  • Michaela (1% Votes)

Total Voters: 105

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If Tavua goes to tribal council, the following player will go home:

  • Andrea (54% Votes)
  • Ozzy (15% Votes)
  • Troy (15% Votes)
  • Cirie (7% Votes)
  • Zeke (7% Votes)
  • Sarah (3% Votes)

Total Voters: 103

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Reminder: FUCK. YO. SPOILERS.

Andy
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Andy

Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
Andy
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  • Other Scott

    Basically all my votes came down to wishful thinking. On Nuku, I really don’t think that Jeff Varner is up to the standards of the other 5 in terms of my interest in him Surviving, so I’m going to hope for him to go home. Also, I really like Hali, so I’m going to bank on Sierra and Debbie being like “hey, woman’s alliance!” and taking out Tai.

    • I think you are banking on a women who was scorned before by a women’s alliance and another woman when faced with the opportunity to work with Hali and other women decided to work with Rodney and Dan. Yeah, that is highly HIGHLY unlikely.

      • Other Scott

        Sierra never had the chance to flip to the women. She never had the votes. The best case that worlds apart got was 7-4 with Mike, Dan, Tyler, Carolyn, Will, Rodney and Sierra against the no collars and Shirin. Sierra couldn’t flip by herself there, it became 7-3, and flipping just was never tenable.

        Sierra was never in a position to make a move by herself, which is why it never happened.

        • I just remember those awful confessionals about how she thought about flipping but never did it.

          • Other Scott

            Yeah I blame the edit more than Sierra for that. The good news is those episodes were still very good, one of them being the Mike throw to save Kelly episode and the other one being a very fun idol hunt that’s kind of been forgotten.

          • Yeah, because it was the last true light of goodness before the darkness of the season fell.

          • Other Scott

            I love the “Bring the Popcorn” episode as an episode but it absolutely destroyed the rest of the season.

            I still have the season mid-tier because the first 11 episodes are maybe top 5 for me for a first 11 episode stretch.

      • prettyboyprobst

        I can’t remember where I heard or read this, but apparently Tai was trying to get something to work with Caleb and I believe Debbie, and he was targeting Sierra. Provided that information finds its way to her, that should be plenty motivation to at least move one step closer towards a woman’s alliance and for Debbie that attempted coup could also be the necessary moral justification to target her original tribemate Tai, who isn’t close to her anyway.
        I don’t see them doing it for the sake of a woman’s alliance, however.
        So I voted Tai, Aubry ( was Sandra’s secondary target from the last vote) and Zeke (by unanimous decision after someone throws a vote his way, or even better by purple rock).

  • Important Micronesia Rewatch News: Purple Tally and I have figured out a watch schedule for Micronesia!
    By March 28, you should have watched Episodes 1-4
    By April 4, you should have watched Episodes 5-8
    By April 11, you should have watched Episode 9-13
    By April 18, you should have the finale and reunion.
    On those above dates, I will start a thread on these Tuesday Prediction Poll Posts starting next week. Let’s keep our thoughts on Micronesia contained to this thread unless it relates to other things like Ozzy vs. Cirie in Game Changers. If you have any questions about this schedule, please let me know!

    • BadPlayer91

      ON BOARD! Though, I’m also still working through Panama, so, I’m about to be watching 3 of 4 Cirie seasons all at once. Oh Survivor, what’s a boy to do.

      • How far are you into Panama?

        • BadPlayer91

          Just watched the Merge.

          It actually wouldn’t be too hard for me to binge the rest of Panama. For a couple of months i was pounding through seasons at like 3-4 episodes a night, but I started limiting myself to only an episode or 2 a night. Watching a live season, it takes a couple months and at the end you feel like it was a real journey. If you do the same time frame in 6 days, it seems less impressive, lol

          • It depends. Watching Nicaragua over a weekend is like a fever dream, but having watched seasons like HvV in a week and half feels like an epic journey.

    • Other Scott

      I shall try my best. I watch way too much TV though so adding 4 hours a week on top of it is daunting.

      • No big deal. It was either that or watching it all at once, which seemed REALLY out of the question.

    • purplerockandy

      I look forward to undermining this season at each opportunity.

      • Assistant Dragon Slayer

        What is your beef w/Micronesia besides the FvF format? Bullet-point style, since I guess we’re going to hash it out over the coming weeks.

        • purplerockandy

          It’s actually really easy to summarize:
          -Format: it felt like Team USA beating up on the NCAA select team.
          -Quits and evacs made all the results feel random. There’s so many alternate timelines of what could/would have happened if not for random events like Fairplay going through withdrawal or Penner felled by an incredibly irresponsible challenge.

          These things combine to make the season outside of my top ten.

          • Diego Armando

            It’s not in my top ten either, but that is mostly because there are a lot of other seasons I like more. Honestly, Blood vs. Wayer is my favorite of the Returnees vs. N00bs seasons.

          • purplerockandy

            Same.

      • I look forward to that as well. It is your Cambodia after all.

    • StormofCuteness

      I’m in and starting today. My only fear being that I watch too much tv and will already have forgotten too much a week from now. Sad, but true. Sigh.
      Also, going to my fiance’s dad’s memorial this weekend so we’re totally emotionally stressed out. Which is why, Yay, Survivor!

    • Assistant Dragon Slayer

      Ugh. I wish I had watched a season other than Micronesia to clear the stench of sulfur from the Nicaragua rewatch. I may be in (with liberal use of the skip 10 seconds button). Or I might be out once the new seasons of Archer, Better Call Saul, and The Leftovers start.

  • BadPlayer91

    Mana: I chose Debbie. Personally, i feel like Hali’s edit has been to positive thus far, and I agree that it seems unlikely Brad will take out the only other guy, since playing with guys is like his thing. Also, 1/2 wishful thinking.

    Nuku: I feel pretty confident, despite no one wanting it, that Nuku will go to tribal. Last week’s edit was so heavy on them, it’s either because they are clearly the best, or, set up for them at tribal. I chose J.T. I feel like, after two weeks of ‘maybe J.T.’ edits thrown around, if he doesn’t get the boot here, he’s gonna be final 5 or beyond.

    Tavua: I picked Ozzy. Almost all wishful thinking. The only real narratives we have gotten from these players is Cirie struggling and trying to make amends with Ozzy, and the Troy idol thing. It would make sense if these two narratives crossed paths, which would mean a Cirie or an Ozzy boot, and i’m not a masochist, so Ozzy. I feel like Tavua is the team that won’t go to tribal though.

    • prettyboyprobst

      I’m not giving up hope that there will be only one ep4 boot after all, and nuNUku also has a good shot in the challenge, as Andy noted.
      In the preview it looks like Tavua has indeed a slight lead over Nuku, who has a lead over Mana going into the puzzle. Troy being able to save his idol one more round would be the worst in a double boot episode, so I’m with you that it’s probably going to happen.

  • Yoshi Kirby And Toad

    Mana: Debbie. Brad will think she is a disloyal ally and take her out.
    Nuku: Didn’t vote here, don’t want to face the possibility that this tribe may lose.
    Tavua: Keep hope alive. Troy.

    • purplerockandy

      Bold Tavua pick.

      • Maritimer

        If anyone from this season is joining the Jason Siska too dumb to play their idol when they are the obvious target club, its Troy

  • Taako From Teevhii

    First or Second boot: Tony or Cirie (+1)
    Third boot: Cirie
    Fourth boot: Hali, Cirie, or JT
    Pre-season winner: SDT
    Score: 1

    Voting off Hali is just finishing what was started last week. Voting off Debbie would require her screwing things up in a major way, and I just don’t think things are lined up for that to happen.

    If Troy keeps his idol secret until Tribal, Andrea might be the most likely to go. But he knows he’s alone on the bottom, so he’s need to really move and shake to stick around. He might consider revealing his idol to the tribe, which would send everyone into a frenzied panic. Will Troy’s vote be the only one that counts? Are people going to split votes? Am I at risk? Paranoia of being idled or rocked out brings everyone to target another threat, the one whose exit won’t leave them crippled in challenges. (But who am I kidding, Troy’s not smart enough to pull off any of this)

    And probably a coin flip between JT and Sandra, but I can’t even think about Nuku going to Tribal, I gotta stop talking about it.

    Bonus prediction: Jeff’s reaction isn’t about a gameplay twist; it’s either a brilliant social/idol play or he’s reacting to a joke.

    • Sean McGrath

      the real question is: Is your winner pick Sierra Dawn Thomas or Sandra Diaz-Twine?

      • Taako From Teevhii

        Yes.

  • Maritimer

    Mana: Tai – I feel like its not Hali, which means its Debbie or Tai, and I think Tai was set up as making a bad decision last week which costs him. Also, maybe I can jinx Debbie
    Nuku: Aubry – if its a Monica edit she’s getting, it would be around now that she goes (they aren’t voting anyone off)
    Tavua: Ozzy – mostly for the reasons Matt said but this one is a crapshoot. I also think its possible Cirie pulls off an idol countermove and Ozzy ends up paying the price for it

    That said, I feel like something odd is going on with this alleged double tribal council. In the press photos for the episode it looks like there are two challenges, which makes it odd they would pack two challenges and two tribals into a single hour, unless one is an individual immunity (spoiler is from press photos on Inside Survivor if you avoid that kind of thing)

    • purplerockandy

      I’ve seen the pics and assumed that it was a two-part challenge.

      • Maritimer

        They look to me to be two entirely different team challenges

        • purplerockandy

          My assumption came from not giving it a whole lot of thought.

        • Assistant Dragon Slayer

          I think you’re right. The overhead shot from the commercial would seem to confirm that there are two separate challenges. However, the double-boot episode from last season was two immunity challenges and two tribals, so it’s not impossible to cram all that in one episode (although… the blindfold challenge usually chews up a lot of time, and at least one of the tribals looks like it’s going to more eventful than either the Will or Sunday boot).

          • Maritimer

            it just seems like a hell of a lot of content. It works with two somewhat routine boots at the individual stage, but less so at the tribal stage I would think. Which leads me to think it may not be two boots, but I’m not clear what else it could be. Maybe the winning tribe gets to watch the losing tribe’s tribal council? If its the Australia twist I will riot, though I don’t think there’s enough time for that in the season.

          • Assistant Dragon Slayer

            Are you talking about “voted out of the tribe but not out of the game”? In a 20-person, 39-day season I just don’t think there’s time for that. On the other hand, I wouldn’t mind seeing the tribe dissolve from Australian Survivor, as long as it was schoolyard-pick style and not rich get richer.

          • Maritimer

            Yeah I was, and I agree that there’s no way. I could live with tribe dissolve, though I would rather it not be so soon after the swap (though see Barbara’s post above if you haven’t yet)

          • prettyboyprobst

            I’m not sure where all this “crazy twist” talk* comes from (but I’ve noted it
            elsewhere as well), but if there is a new twist (and not just 2nd and
            3rd place each having a tribal council), I’m kind of expecting the two
            tribes to be voting as one. That hasn’t been done before, right? And it would save some time in a packed episode.

            Agreed that there is no time for the Australian tribe switch after voting, but what if the person with the second highest vote total goes to/stays with the tribe that came in 2nd (after voting as one tribe?)?

            *Well, I have some idea, but I didn’t check any EW Probst interviews or other sources to find out more. The wording of “both losing tribes going to tribal council” had me suspicious from the start, but JoAnn from the SFP also mentioned that they couldn’t confirm in time that there would be two vote-outs (and they are usually able to before double boot episodes) so there is only one vote-out on their fantasy league schedule. However, that could just be CBS protecting their shiny new twist.

          • prettyboyprobst

            Well, looks like the @disqus_GpYJ355BVM:disqus already did it. (Watching Simpsons right now!).

            Way to ruin my speculation, CBS!

          • purplerockandy

            Didn’t the preview expressly show Probst saying that both losing tribes are going to Tribal Council?

          • BadPlayer91

            Yeah. If he had said “both are going” to tribal, it could be a matter of winners getting to watch the loosing tribal, but with it being both losing tribes, that seems unlikely.

            It would be really fun to see a brand new kind of twist here, rather than just a double boot, but i don’t want to be greedy….

          • Maritimer

            Hmm…right. I couldn’t remember how he worded it. Maybe I’m just overthinking it and we are just getting a packed episode

          • Taako From Teevhii

            He did. There’ll be a reward challenge for coffee and cookies, and an IC after.

          • Assistant Dragon Slayer

            That seems the most likely scenario to me, too. Although… a triple-boot episode would certainly be unprecedented and shocking.

          • Taako From Teevhii

            In a true and just world, all three tribes arrive at Tribal at the same time, and Jeff announces that the HII is hidden somewhere in the set.

        • prettyboyprobst

          There are actually two two-part challenges., so you’re both right.

          • Maritimer

            Two. Two-part. Challenges. With one, maybe two tribals. Are we going to see the the tribes at all this week? Is this the new Edgic foiling plan, don’t show the tribes at all?
            I should probably stop getting pre-emptively pissed about this episode, it can’t be healthy

          • BadPlayer91

            Tribals are always the most revealing, for some people more revealing than they ever should be (the amount of times i’ve yelled “don’t say that” during tribal is ALL the time). Maybe we are really getting to know the true tribes this way.

          • Ms. Sweaterfan

            Jeff’s newest idea, Survivor: Casuals! Each episode is just 100% challenges. Also, Rupert is there.

          • Taako From Teevhii

            Well Facebook would love it, so it must be good.

  • Mike Hirsch

    Mana: I suppose it would be in Tai and Debbie’s best interests to get rid of Brad, but that probably won’t happen, so in that case Hali.

    Nuku: NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO but J.T.

    The other tribe:
    This seems to entirely fall on who Troy wants gone, but what if Cirie finds out that Troy has an idol and is voting for Andrea, and gets Andrea to vote for Ozzy in a 3-2-1 split revival??? Wouldn’t that be kind of amazing? Yes. Yes it would. Let’s go with that. Ozzy.

    • BadPlayer91

      I like your thinking for Tavua. Like, as in would like to see, but am not super hopeful for.

    • torchoflaw

      Please let this happen.

  • StormofCuteness

    I had to follow Barbara Anderson to even find these predictions! What up? Can’t they just be the first thing on the front page of PRP?
    See also: Why is internet-ing hard? I am lame.

    • Taako From Teevhii

      Word on the street is that people around here don’t “do things.” I’ve resigned to just checking the sidebar where articles are usually tweeted.

      • That’s a good solution. I tried to find a widget that would put the date of the most recent post on the main page, but then the widget ended up getting cached too. Womp womp.

    • BadPlayer91

      The website is hosted via WordPress i believe, and WordPress caches every single fucking thing you do. So, every time you open the website, you are probably looking at an older cached version

      • Yes and yes.

        • BadPlayer91

          Yeah, I deal with the same thing at work. I know there is an option to force purge all caches on the back end, but you have to manually do it. I’m guess you are probably familiar though.

          • I researched the hell out of it, and couldn’t find anything that would automatically push out the updated page every time. If anyone ever runs across something, I’d be glad to try it. Manual cache dump isn’t a very viable solution, though.

          • BadPlayer91

            Yeah, we haven’t found anything manual. We basically just purge all caches everytime we update a website or when a client complains about not seeing something, lol

      • StormofCuteness

        So helpful, no wonder I was missing so much!

    • There’s a shitty thing that’s been going on with our site for a while now where it’ll send out cached versions when you come to the site, particularly if you come frequently.

      You can always just refresh when you load the main page to see if there’s new stuff. Sorry I don’t have a better solution, but I’m not an IT guy.

      • StormofCuteness

        Ahhhh, it all makes so much more sense now! Yay!

      • Roswulf

        So…you’re saying the site is judging me for visiting too often.

        Seems legit.

        • Taako From Teevhii

          Skynet comes alive, just to make fun of us “Internet losers”

  • Important Update about This Week’s Episode!
    http://www.cbs.com/shows/survivor/news/1006820/survivor-throws-the-group-for-a-loop-with-a-new-dramatic-game-twist/
    Apparently, two tribes are voting out one person

    EDIT: So that clip had nothing to do with it. Goddamnit, Reddit!

    EDIT AGAIN: Here is the confirmation: https://twitter.com/survivorcbs/status/84425043239010304

    • Taako From Teevhii

      Well this changes everything, don’t it?

      • It might.

        • Taako From Teevhii

          It truly depends on which tribe wins immunity. If a certain tribe loses (and I’m not going to say it because I can’t put that energy into the universe), there’ll definitely be fireworks at tribal. But otherwise, the vote looks straightforward. I really hope I get to watch this live. At the very least, I’m hoping CBS posts the episode online at the start of the West Coast broadcast.

        • BadPlayer91

          WAIT, so like, if Nuku goes to tribal, they would be down 5 to 6 with whatever tribe they go with? So, either we are 100% loosing a member of Nuku cause whoever goes with them would be stupid to not just play the majority card, or, we are looking at a very interesting ‘someone must switch or rocks’ situation?

          • Taako From Teevhii

            Well there’s no revote before rocks, but I think this comes down to whether players are more bound to the their old tribes or their new ones. Old Nuku on Tavua seems to be in the best position, followed by NuNuku sans JT.

          • Super duper fan

            They have more numbers if Mana goes to tribal. It will be 6-5 cause there is Hali in there

          • BadPlayer91

            DERP DERP DERP, i wasn’t even thinking of the original 2 tribes, just thinking of the new 3. If people are loyal to the new teams, that would be the most straight forward, anything else and chaos is sure to rein.

          • Ms. Sweaterfan

            Ohhhhh it didn’t initially click in my mind how this would work. For some reason I thought like the losing tribe would lose someone and the winning tribe would win the ability to vote as well, without being at risk. But obviously that doesn’t make sense. So the two losing tribes will go and everyone will be vulnerable and, combined, they’ll vote out one person? But I assume they’ll only be able to talk to their own tribe beforehand. I suppose if you have the numbers you have a big motivation to take out a challenge threat if you can. Or to protect someone from your former alliance. This could be really exciting!

          • Maritimer

            It seems monumentally unfair to me. Like say you’re Brad – you just made a move and took control of your tribe. He’s the obvious target for his tribe I would think, and poof, his move is negated and he’s toasted with no real opportunity to save himself. The only redemption is the chance for old tribal lines, but still, no opportunity to talk to half the voters. This could be like Michelle Yi unfair. Tribe swaps at least provide chances to scramble

          • Ms. Sweaterfan

            I agree, and I think we have to assume that a major player will be taken out this week, and probably a challenge threat to boot. We could probably lose an Ozzy/JT/Malcolm type because of it. Or Brad.

          • Maritimer

            I would agree, they would be stupid not to take the opportunity, and I understand Survivor’s not fair, but that would be bullshit

          • Ms. Sweaterfan

            oh yeah it would be completely unfair, and I just hope it doesn’t take out Cirie because I doubt they’ll be giving her a 5th shot at the game any time soon :/ Ozzy, I’d be okay with.

          • prettyboyprobst

            Assuming that the NToS-preview is a misdirect as usual, Brad would be in big trouble if Tavua wins immunity. There could be cracks in his tribe, Hali might be a Sandra-loyalist, JT still needs to play nice in his new tribe and nuMAna is at a numbers disadvantage to begin with.
            On the other hand, none of their names are as daunting as any of the nuNuku folk’s, as we are all well aware of. That’s about the best angle Brad could play in that scenario.
            And if there is more to the preview this time, Sandra better make sure it’s anybody but her.

          • Unless Nuku doesn’t go to tribal, which could happen. They are not a badly formed tribe. They are just boring.

          • Super duper fan

            Post swap Nuku boring?

    • Taako From Teevhii

      Ok then, if I had to choose just one person to go home based on this revelation, I’m saying it’s gonna be Hali. I’m not even going to entertain the thought of NuNuku losing immunity, so Mana and Tavua go to tribal. Regardless of whether anyone’s aware of Troy’s idol, Old Nuku should know that they have the numbers to safely split the vote. By hook or by crook, Hali gets the boot. Also, previous edit-related stuff from the previous episode.

      • Assistant Dragon Slayer

        That’s the easy boot for sure. But…surely Mana’s pitch is going to be “sure you can take one of us out, but this is your opportunity to get rid of a big threat like XX (let’s assume Cirie or Ozzy).” Even if everybody on the green tribe is pissed that someone defected, they won’t know who it is. Troy might go for it because he has the idol and he’s the only old-Mana on the green tribe. In the unlikely event that Nu-Nuku goes to tribal, there are even bigger targets Mana can pitch, like Sandra or Malcolm. JT would be similarly motivated to defect.

        • Assistant Dragon Slayer

          Actually, thinking about it more, I think this means Mana somehow won immunity. It would just be too unfair to do a combined tribal with one tribe in the minority. Plus they wouldn’t want to have Mana down 6-6-4 next week. Plus a 6-6 combined tribal makes a deadlock and rocks much more likely.

          • prettyboyprobst

            I don’t see a problem with unbalanced tribes in this scenario at all (or rather not enough to have The Powers That Be wreck their brains about it). They were shuffled already and will have spend a similiar amount of time in old and new tribes, a swap, as you noted, that resulted in very uneven tribes in terms of tribal origin, and nothing about that whole twist is “fair” in the traditional sense of players being able to gain the social standing in their tribes over time to survive votes, but that hasn’t stopped them before.
            I’m also with Taako in that I think there is just no way that Probst could wait to spring the “both losing tribes…”-line after the challenge on them, so the only way to react after the fact would be to have separate TCs, which would make for a really cluttered episode, so I can’t the production being ok with planning for that path. They’d rather have the uneven tribes in their twist.

            I do think you have it right on how much the players will know walking into Tribal, though, and I can’t wait for the looks should they indeed play it like that.

          • Assistant Dragon Slayer

            They don’t have to do anything, of course, I’m just thinking that if they’re going to mess with the fundamentals of the game like this, they’re going to do it in as otherwise fair way as possible. If it’s Tavau and Mana, for example, HII paranoia aside, it’s almost a no brainer for Tavau to vote as a bloc and get rid of Brad, and there’s nothing Mana can do about it. Now Mana’s crippled, down 6-6-4 in the numbers next episode, the superfans are pissed off and there was very little payoff in terms of drama. On the other hand, if it’s Tavau vs. Nuku 6 vs. 6, it’s a game of chicken. For example, Tavau can say “We’re voting 6 strong for Sandra. You all can go to rocks to save her if you want to, but we think at least one of you has the sense to take out the biggest threat in the game.” And Nuku can do the same to Cirie. Either it goes to rocks or somebody defects. Huge drama, although we do lose a big player.

            You’re right, of course, that they wouldn’t spring the “both losing tribes vote somebody out” twist on them after the challenge, so it is weird that they would plan for a reward challenge, an immunity challenge, and two tribals. I guess we’ll find out in a few hours.

          • prettyboyprobst

            I guess I’m just not as concerned that the twist occuring tells us anything is because I don’t think that the outcome of the IC would deter production from having the twist they are hoping to use.
            And that’s in part because I assume that production would look at these 5vs6 scenarios more in the way that I’m looking at them, which is not necessarily expecting the indidvidual players to vote with their new tribes in order to win the vote against the other tribe. They also have old alliances and can probably see another swap on the horizon already.

            I could see Mana coming in with and even sticking to that strategy, if they managed to integrate Hali better since the last episode, but on the other tribes there are players who I’d expect to look at this as an opportunity to better their standing in their respective tribes, by taking out whoever they perceive is preventing them from moving up (the more I think about it, the worse I feel about nuNuku’s chances should they not win immunity, so please let me be wrong).

            Also: Virtually none of the superfans would be mad if Mana turns out to be the victim of this twist.

          • Assistant Dragon Slayer

            Huh. I was assuming the tribes would stick together mostly because I also assumed that the two tribes would be seated next to each other, and that there wouldn’t be any opportunity to communicate one-on-one with someone from the other tribe without being heard. But I guess it makes more sense to seat them in some kind of random order to encourage whispering.

          • prettyboyprobst

            I imagine it to be less about where people are sitting*, as it is about Probst inquiring about the different tribe dynamics and people offering up where the vulnerabilities lie.
            At some point it has to break into open negotiations (I think this where the dazzled Probst reactions come in), and if for example Troy is there, he could strike first and target Zeke or one of the smart girls and still be safe at his next tribal. Or the other Tavuas offer up Troy as sacrifice, if they think that’s their best bet to survive the vote.
            If Nuku is internally split 3-3, we could see both sides pleading for votes from the other tribe, to gain power in their own tribe.
            If it’s Nuku and Mana, we could see the original Mana players coming to an agreement that it has to be the first boot from old Nuku and decide between JT and one of the non-Hali’s from nuMana (maybe even split the votes).
            Mixed seating would make this even more volatile, although it still would be hard to secretly string enough votes together.

            *(of course I also pictured a scene like in ep.6(?) of Survivor AU, and even though there’s nothing stopping them from shuffling the seating in this twist, I suspect that production is going for exactly that visual of two tribes at one TC)

          • Assistant Dragon Slayer

            Well, you were right that the imbalance of 6 vs. 5 didn’t matter, but you didn’t account for an idol-out. And I was right that they voted on existing tribal lines, but I didn’t anticipate the chaotic way they got there.

          • prettyboyprobst

            Yeah, I wanted to write a post mortem on how the twist did play out, but it made me dizzy just thinking about how to dissect this. I also didn’t want to risk spoiling you through notifications, so my plan was to get back to it after I get to pick up on all the stuff I missed the first time watching with my own eyes and ears.

            But it is clear that the current tribe lines played a bigger role in the actual voting than I anticipated, although the players in the hot seats of their respective tribes also seemed to try and use this twist as an opportunity to shake their tribes up, but also walked the line, not wanting to overcommit.

            Fwiw, Rob talked in his live show that he would have liked JT to play it more in the vein of my scenario of a nuNuku-tribe that was split down the middle, which, although quite possible or even probable, I’m not even sure it legitimately was.

        • Taako From Teevhii

          If Nuku and Tavua end up at tribal together, then I can see Old Mana convincing JT to vote with them for Cirie (instead of Ozzy). NuNuku and Troy together can have a smooth vote, no rocks. But there is one thing that I think we’ve all taken for granted: that the players will know the twist beforehand. It’s underhanded, shady, and not like Survivor to keep them in the dark about aspects of gameplay. On the other hand, imagine each tribe rolling up to tribal, surprised to see the other tribe at the same time. I can see it.

          • Assistant Dragon Slayer

            I think that’s exactly how they would do it. And the more I think about it, the more I’m convinced that Tavua and Nuku are the ones going to tribal. It’s the perfect scenario to do a combined tribal: Two tribes of equal numbers, one orphan on each tribe, six men and six women.

          • Taako From Teevhii

            I think that’s the ideal situation, but it seems unlikely to me that someone came up with the idea spontaneously. And if they had the idea but only wanted to do it with Tavua and Nuku, the choice to have two challenge in the same tribal cycle would make for an overly cluttered episode if Mana ended up losing a challenge. This makes me think that they were doing this twist anyway, uneven tribes be damned.

          • Assistant Dragon Slayer

            I don’t think it was spontaneous. I think that, if anything, they’ve had this idea in inventory for a while and have been waiting for the scenario of perfectly balanced 2nd and 3rd place tribes to arise. The fact that it makes for a cluttered episode seems like more evidence that it was a move made on the fly (i.e., if Mana had lost it would have been a normal 3rd place goes to tribal boot). Of course my theory depends on Mana actually winning, which seems really unlikely.

          • Taako From Teevhii

            If only one tribe goes to tribal, they’d say so before the IC. You can’t decide after the fact that two tribe are going. And my point about episode clutter was in regards to the hypothetical where there are two separate challenges *and* two separate votes. The way the episode is shaping up looks well-paced and uncluttered, indicating that everything was planned beforehand.

          • Taako From Teevhii

            Although, @AssistantDragonSlayer:disqus, there may be an actual, god-honest spoiler out there, not one of these nominal ones where we all use the spoiler tags but also all know the twist. Also, I may or may not have helped spread it.

            But essentially, (DON’T LOOK AT THIS IF YOU WANT TO PRESERVE ANY SEMBLENCE OF SURPRISE ABOUT UPCOMING CHALLENGES) The challenge preview I linked to above is the one that is most likely from next week, and it’s run with three teams of five.

            I’m uncomfortable even saying that much. There should be another spoiler tag for legitimate, “ruin half the episode” level spoilers.

          • Why did they do this?

          • prettyboyprobst

            As soon as I got your challenge video to work I also couldn’t help but pause it to count through the teams, wary of the implications. It didn’t take long to dawn on me how tricky it would be, spoiler tags or not, to alert people of the dangers of looking at that video without saying too much (you found a good way), but in the early stages of coming up with appropriate wording I also realized I may have overreacted, because I simply don’t know enough about the production and its schedule to ring the alarm bells.

            For one, do we really know that the dream team plays through the challenges in between the last TC and before the challenges take place? I think it’s actually more likely that they are a little more ahead of schedule and have to make do with some guesswork to determine how large the teams will be.

            Looking at the challenge, I see no reason why you couldn’t run it with teams of four instead, if need be. And Kirhoffer doesn’t strike me as the type who enjoys sitting out too many of his dream teamers to account for inbalanced tribes in his challenges, so it makes sense to make a run with tribes of five for the best case scenario. Heck, they could have done a run with four-man-teams, too.

            It could also be a challenge from even further down the line, all we know is, there are at least 15 people left when it took place. That could be three episodes (or one swap) from now.

            So maybe hopefully perhaps not a spoiler at all? I mean, other than for the challenge setup of ep FOUR (keeping with PRP counting-standards from now on).

          • Taako From Teevhii

            I think you’re right in that this challenge can easily be run with teams of four. Outside of that though, I think these are some questions (good questions) whose answers would confirm or deny the nasty, horrible spoilerses I posted above. So while I could say more about that, I going to refrain from doing so. But also, like, please Survivor gods, don’t let Mana win immunity, they’re literally so boring.

          • prettyboyprobst

            I can’t say for sure that I would have gone to such lengths of disarming a possible spoiler, if the spoilerz’ contents weren’t so terribly nasty and keeping hope for Nuku alive wasn’t such worthwhile reward. I mean, it would be nice to know that protecting the suspense for my fellow viewers would have been motivation enough for me, but it seems more likely, that I just haven’t arrived at the stage of accepting all of Mana being immune this vote.

    • StormofCuteness

      Holy cats! Game Changers, indeed!

      • Super duper fan

        It’s. A. Game changer.

    • Super duper fan

      There is nothing under the second spoiler tag.

      • Taako From Teevhii

        Not true, that’s just a very well-protected spoiler.

        • prettyboyprobst

          More protection than I can deal with. I even refreshed the page because of all the edits. What’s supposed to be under there?

          • Taako From Teevhii

            Probably just another source, confirming the twist. There are references to it on CBS’s website and twitter acct.

          • prettyboyprobst

            Thanks, then it could be a tweet-embed/display problem. I clicked the link and saw the description, but the video is geo-restricted. I guess I’ll have to check cbs’ yt channel.

          • Sorry, I am at work so I can’t edit right now. It is a link to the specific tweet from the official Survivor account confirming it.

          • prettyboyprobst

            No worries, thanks to Taako we figured it out anyway. I didn’t even check youtube and twitter because I figured the video description from the link you posted contains all the info they are willing to let out.

            And don’t you ever apologize for being a strong, modern woman in the workforce! (not that you did.)

          • Did it contain all of the information? I double checked it, but I didn’t see it.

          • prettyboyprobst

            I wouldn’t know. Is there more?
            It’s A First When Two Tribes Vote Out One Castaway On Survivor: Game Changers

            It’s uncharted territory when host Jeff Probst drops a bombshell on the cast of game changers.
            How will the castaways react to the unexpected twist and who will be the next person sent home?

          • I completely missed it then.

          • prettyboyprobst

            Maybe you didn’t. I clicked the link again after I saw it on a rhap-post and it was slightly differing from the wording I saw in the original article. Then I double checked and clicked your link again, and it links to the same article. They changed it and are now more tight-lipped about the nature of the twist. Not sure how much that matters after it got out anyway (it probably does help preserve the suspense for some of the a bit more casual followers of the show, though).

            But between this and the accidental release of the BTS challenge video, what the hell is going on in the Survivor promo department?

        • prettyboyprobst
          • Taako From Teevhii

            Don’t worry, I feel ya. I am the icon of whoosh around here.

    • Diego Armando

      I’m going to let this be a surprise.

    • Mike Hirsch

      I don’t want to judge anything too early, but that seems like kind of a dumb idea to me.

    • BadPlayer91

      I would like to tangent a wee bit and note that the Blindfold challenge is always one of my favorite. I never get tired of watching people destroy themselves while stumbling around blindfold, and the callers going crazy. Cambodia was particularly enjoyable in this regard (and also the footage of Joe man-handling giant blocks by himself).

      • prettyboyprobst

        I don’t know, especially that challenge in Cambodia had me question my fondness

        for blindfold challenges. They are incredibly fun to look at, until something like Spencer nearly getting his knee destroyed happens. That was just brutal.

        • BadPlayer91

          I enjoy brutal. Also, wasn’t that where Varner broke his toe?

          Edit: No, it was not…

    • the sky is falling

      I’m calling shenanigans on the survivor CBS twitter feed for the above. Seems kinda spoilery for an official account to tell us that.

  • Taako From Teevhii

    Now I’m all sorts of confused.

    https://youtu.be/QpOEjusJnRc

    Will there be three challenges? Or did the CBS interns get their wires crossed and post the wrong preview somewhere along the way?

  • Super duper fan

    This week is really tricky. In every tribe there were 3 potential picks that I was considering (Mana- Debbie, Hali and Tai; Nuku- Aubry, JT and Sandra; Tavua- Andrea, Ozzy and Troy) and it is even possible that someone else gets voted out.

    For Mana I chose Tai. I could see three women trying to take over the tribe, and cause he is the most unreliable one they will vote him out (I know that they both don’t have a good history with women’ alliances but I’m sticking to my Hali winner pick to the very end).

    For Nuku I chose JT. Unless he finds an idol, I don’t think he’s gonna change anyone’s mind and they will stick to the original tribal lines.

    For Tavua I went with an upset and I chose Troy. I went with him simply cause of ONE line he said: “Troyzan’s back. I think.” I will be hopeful that it means that he gets convinced by someone on that tribe that he is safe and he’ll get voted out ala Jason Siska.

    At first I was going to say that Mana won’t go to tribal, but after news that Barbara gave I think it is going to be Tavua safe

    And of course I was wrong about Malcolm going home, but it was worth the shot.

    20/19.Ciera (CORRECT)
    18.Malcolm (WRONG)
    17.Tai/JT/Troy (TBA)
    16.(TBA)
    15.(TBA)
    14.(TBA)
    13.(TBA)
    12.(TBA)
    11.(TBA)
    10.(TBA)
    9.(TBA)
    8.(TBA)
    7.(TBA)
    6.(TBA)
    5.(TBA)
    4.(TBA)
    3.(TBA)
    2.(TBA)
    1.(TBA)

    Pre-season winner pick: Hali (TBA)
    Mid-season winner pick: (TBA)

  • Diego Armando

    I’ll say Ozzy for his tribe, since the show seems to be building up some sort of think with Ozzy and Cirie. I think Troy will want to be the alpha dog and Cirie may be able to push his vote onto Ozzy. Plus Ozzy getting I doled out makes me feel better than Andrea or Cirie.

    For Tribe Who Cares, I will say that Hali bonds with Brad and the acronym, and Brad decides that Tai is too wishiwashi to keep around.

    Given my generally terrible prediction skills so far, I will say that Sandra is not only next going home, but has a 0% chance of winning Survivor.

    • Taako From Teevhii

      You will show MODBOCQOTA&TFMSDT respect and refer to her by her full title. “The acronym”

      • Diego Armando

        My apologies.

  • Black Dynamite

    No actual prediction for me this week but for the second season in a row I’ll be at the live Know It All’s event. Last year I went there, there was a positive response when Figgy got the boot. This made me think about which players getting booted would make the Survivor fanatics (including myself) the most happy. This was a hard ranking to put together because fans have a wide variety of favorites.

    Best KIA audience boot possibilities.

    1. Troy
    2. Debbie
    3. Sarah
    4. FFSDT
    5. Brad
    6. Tai
    7. Hali
    8. Ozzy
    9. Zeke
    10. Varner
    11. JT
    12. Michaela
    13. Andrea
    14. Aubry
    15. Malcolm
    16. Cirie
    17. Sandra

    • Purple Rock Emma

      Have fun at the event!

      • Black Dynamite

        Thanks, my main hope is that Aubry attends again and I get a non blurry pic with her.

        • Diego Armando

          Also since you have already met her, you will likely not fanboy out over her. We have all been there. Have fun and tell us everything.

          • Black Dynamite

            Yeah, it should be easier the second time around if she’s there. I’ll definitely share some details of what happens tomorrow night.

          • Alycia Swift

            I hope you will write an article or something.

          • Black Dynamite

            No article but I’ll write something about my experience in the comments section.

    • Super duper fan

      What’s interesting is that besides maybe Troy and Debbie there isn’t that much negative opinions about the other ones (even someone like Sierra I don’t think is gonna make a major reaction).

      • Black Dynamite

        Yeah, after those the first two the rest of the list is more about people being happy that their favorite didn’t go home.

    • Taako From Teevhii

      Don’t forget to stipulate that Troy is really on this list twice. Once for being Troy and once more for being booted while holding an idol.

    • prettyboyprobst

      Sarah is growing on me, but that may just be what the love-letter-to-Tony that was her latest extra scene did to me speaking. Still, I would imagine the audience to prefer keeping her in over FFLAHSDT and Brad, if nobody else, for her original season alone.

      • Super duper fan

        The only problem I have with her for now is that she may overstate how good of a player she is. It only stands for now cause she didn’t have a chance to play just yet, and she could have learned from fer first time., but she gives off a really cocky vibe so until she doesn’t prove us wrong it can irritate me a little (I like her, but she isn’t my favourite on this cast).

        • prettyboyprobst

          Totally agree and that is why she has so much room to grow on me this time. Pre-game I didn’t care for her at all and here she hasn’t gotten the airtime yet to display illusions of grandeur yet again. I just noticed, once more (I believe in Cagayan it was the same for me), that if she doesn’t do that, my natural state is liking her.

          • I thought her bio was really good besides the whole “I had a great social game”…which she then repeats in the premiere. What are you doing, Sarah?

          • Max_Jets

            “I have great social game” would be weird coming out of anyone’s mouth, let alone Sarah.

          • Did she not watch the merge episode of Cagayan?

    • Violina23

      Have fun! Wish I could be there!

    • Alycia Swift

      I am so jealous. Especially because I live close enough to go but far enough for it to be a pain in the *)!. Or I’m just old.

      Next time.

      • Violina23

        I’m in the same boat. I think we’ve had this conversation. We should arrange a “West of the Husdon” gathering.

        • Alycia Swift

          Yes. That would be great! A diner might be a good place I suppose because if there’s anything we have in NJ that’s great, its diners. Or a bar with a TV.

    • I’m not at all jealous of you. Not at all.

  • Shambo

    Title of episode TABLES TURN. Turned table as I see is Mana Tavua go to tribal thinking voting off member, they vote JT and Troy as odd members out only to find just before votes read that they voted on who to swap. Then JT and Troy have to pick person to go with them leaving those two on team as odd member out. Tables turned

  • forever1267

    Boards on Boards Question: What does “FFSDT” and “FFLAHSDT” stand for?

    • Max_Jets

      I don’t know about LAH, but FFSDT is Fan Favorite Sierra Dawn Thomas. It originated from the Survivor Price is Right episode where Sierra and Ozzy were introduced as fan favorites.

      • purplerockandy

        Legacy Advantage Holder.

        • gouis

          FFGCLAHSDT

          • Taako From Teevhii

            Ironically, “ffgclah” is the exasperated noise I make whenever FFSDTMBAPhD is onscreen

          • gouis

            That’s Dr. FFSDTMBAPhD to you

          • Taako From Teevhii

            She already has a PhD, that title would make the acronym redundant.

  • gouis

    Lots of grey ‘ink’ on this page. Looks like people are going to have OPINIONS after this episode.

    • gouis

      I also hope it’s not the speculated twist because that fundamentally breaks the whole structure of the show.

  • Violina23

    I voted for the people I want to get voted out. Because I’m having that kind of week. I have put basically ZERO thought into who might ACTUALLY be voted out.

    In other words…

    Debbie
    JT (since I had to pick somebody)
    Troy

  • Alycia Swift

    I’m surprised Varner is the caller because, although hilarious, he’s not really a loudmouth. I mean, if there were ever a role Sandra was suited for was caller because she “can get loud too, what the f…” We’ve heard her be loud.

    • Violina23

      She’d be a HILARIOUS caller.

      “What the F is wrong with you, it’s RIGHT THERE!”

      • Alycia Swift

        OMG I would love to see this.

        • Ethan Kyle

          JT YOU STUPID MOTHERFUCKER ITS RIGHT THERE, WHAT YOU NEED RUSSELL TO COME OUT TO TELL YOU WHAT TO DO

    • purplerockandy

      Could be a classic case of Sandra deftly sidestepping potential blame for failure.

    • In Cambodia, Varner was actually a great caller. Angkor just suffered in the puzzle portion because they were all exhausted and hungry.

      • Diego Armando

        They couldn’t move at the end of that challenge.

  • Ethan Kyle

    I think JT is completely fucked if Nuku goes to tribal , I think his Idol stunt did way to much damage, and Sandra getting votes isn’t really unprecedented
    for Mana Hali, i don’t think any of the Mana’s have a reason to bring Hali in over debbie
    For the green tribe, I think (and hope) Troy Idols out Cirie or Andrea, either one i’d be more than happy with because I have neither in fantasy

    • Ethan Kyle

      Plus in an extremely unpopular opinion I don’t think Cirie’s been fun since Panama

      • BadPlayer91

        HERESY

        • Ethan Kyle

          eh, its just not fun to me to watch someone buy into their own hype so hard they think they can do no wrong … plus her hardline fuck Sandra Russell deserved to win really soured me on her in retrospect.

          • BadPlayer91

            HERESY

      • Roswulf

        Cirie basically had nothing to do in HvV (mostly because…JT!), or this season thus far, so I’ll give you that, but in what conceivable way was she not fun in late Micronesia? She was the main brain behind the hilarious culling of the dummies!

  • Ethan Kyle

    The reason I’ve been so down on JT is I think JT got so much help from being an unknown factor in Tocenchins , to the point that even his stupidity in HvV wasn’t enough to bring down the legacy of JT, now he’s playing wih people who know well enough not to trust him, and he doesn’t have the “Nobody will vote for me” shield Sandra has