Survivor Game Changers Week 4 Predictions and Poll

Time for the fourth week of predictions for the FIFTH episode of the season. Yes, fifth. All the top Survivor tastemakers agree on that score.

Picking one from each tribe this week. Not that predictions will save us this season.

Boot Predictions

Andy: As the episode starts, Hali’s attempted coup and reluctant cooperation will be noted, keeping her on the chopping block. Then Debbie flips out, for Debbie reasons. While we have a healthy skepticism for previews, it’s hard to imagine being around for Debbie flipping out like she does on Brad and Tai like we’ve seen and them to decide “yes, I’d like to trust my game to this person”. Better to get rid of her than try to bend to her will. Hali’s threat is fairly neutralized at this point. Best to cut ties with crazy.

The most likely tribe to go to tribal council is Nuku, with two fifths of their challenge strength comes in the form of Sandra and Varner. Plus, how motivated will they be to keep JT there? Or, more specifically, how motivated will they be to send JT’s dumbass home? VERY.

We’re still on “who will fall victim to Troy’s idol” watch (phrasing). I’m not actually worried that they’ll go to tribal council before the next swap or merge, but were it to happen, I say it’s Cirie now. I’m not happy about that.

John: Four votes in, this season has already broken me. I’m primed to expect the worst now. So what fresh horrors could possibly await us this week? The most devastating possible outcome would be sending Nuku to another tribal council, therefore I assume that’s what is going to happen. And what’s the most devastating potential Nuku boot? Sandra.

So cocky! How unlike her! Quick, hand me some pearls to clutch.

If Tavua ends up at tribal council, they’re not going to dick around. Regardless of whatever challenge boner led to them ending up at tribal council, they’ll be cocksure that they can get Troy out. Unfortunately, Troy has a tool to keep himself safe. He’ll want to take out a member of the majority, but keep the tribe strong to prevent losing more challenges. And that’s Cirie.

The one potentially good outcome this week is a Mana loss. Because if that happens, it’s probably Hali or Debbie going home. And I’d guess Debbie.

Emma: You come at the queen, you best not miss. JT missed. I just don’t see a way out for him. Good at challenges or not, he fucked up and is likely to pay for it.

There’s obviously an argument for Hali, but dear god with those previews please let it be Debbie. I can’t take more than one episode of that screaming.

Who the fucks knows about Tavua? Troy is still likely to play an idol, but we don’t know anything about his relationships on that tribe. Let’s go with Zeke. I bet they avoid tribal council anyway so it shouldn’t matter.

Mark: I’m almost worried to make any predictions after last week, but here it goes. For Nuku, the obvious boot is JT being punished for messing up their game last week. Especially if a vengeful Sandra has anything to say about it.  For the… green tribe… I don’t know. Ozzy again? For Mana, I’m still going to say Hali. Her waffling didn’t do her any favors.

Matt: Mana: Debbie. Can only keep crazy contained for so long and while they are hardly huge fans of Hali, Debbie flying off the proverbial handle will freak the rest of them out enough that they’ll boot her.

Nuku: Oh you better believe its JT. No way JT turns the rest of them against someone else after he got Malcolm voted off. Sandra will enjoy gutting him, boy.

Tavua: Ozzy. Because I still say Troy tries to oust the person he sees as his biggest competition.

Andy John Emma
Mark Matt
First or Second Boot
Aubry Ciera Ciera Ciera Ciera Ciera
Third Out JT Debbie Cirie JT Cirie JT
Fourth Out JT Sandra Sandra  Sandra Varner JT
Mana 5th Boot Debbie Debbie Debbie Hali Debbie question-mark
Nuku 5th Boot JT Sandra JT JT JT question-mark
Tavua 5th Boot Cirie Cirie Zeke Ozzy  Ozzy  question-mark
Score 0-red
Preseason Winner Pick Malcolm Tony
Andrea Malcolm

Time to make your picks. And feel free to track how your personal picks do throughout the year. I won’t make mention of it or anything, but you can still feel good about it.

If Mana goes to tribal council, the following player will go home:

  • Debbie (61% Votes)
  • Hali (32% Votes)
  • Sierra Dawn Thomas (4% Votes)
  • Tai (2% Votes)
  • Brad Culpepper (1% Votes)

Total Voters: 114

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If Nuku goes to tribal council, the following player will go home:

  • JT (71% Votes)
  • Sandra (17% Votes)
  • Jeff Varner (7% Votes)
  • Aubry (4% Votes)
  • Michaela (1% Votes)

Total Voters: 114

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If Tavua goes to tribal council, the following player will go home:

  • Andrea (38% Votes)
  • Ozzy (27% Votes)
  • Cirie (16% Votes)
  • Sarah (8% Votes)
  • Troy (7% Votes)
  • Zeke (5% Votes)

Total Voters: 109

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Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
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247 thoughts on “Survivor Game Changers Week 4 Predictions and Poll

  1. Mana: Debbie – I think they showed us Hali telling Sierra she was trying to switch it for a reason and that reason is this tribe has a 2-2 split with Brad being the swing vote. He won’t give Debbie a firm answer which leads to her blow-up
    Nuku: To be contrarian, I’m gonna say they decide challenge strength matters and boot Varner, given the emphasis on his challenge failures
    Tavua: I agree they are never going to tribal, but Sarah is getting a quiet, idoled out edit, so lets say her

    Also, reddit is apparently spoiled on this boot – I saw the warning that they were before I saw anything spoiler-y, but I’d avoid it until after the episode.

    1. Note to anyone who may have seen this alleged spoiler: don’t vote. It’s really not that important a thing to do that makes it worth the risk.

      1. It looks like either A) we don’t need to worry about a lot of spoilers affecting votes or B) the spoiled boot is really obvious.

    2. Is nowhere safe? I got annoyed at myself for looking at the survivor’s twitters in case some of the info gleaned led to thoughts that could be spoilery.

      1. Only here! I’ve been super careful this season – I won’t look at the Edgic sub, pick what reddit threads I open carefully, avoid the Survivor hashtag on Twitter, only read the comment section here, etc. I won’t even look at this season’s player’s social media.
        And it still seems to be barely enough to avoid being spoiled.

      2. I muted all of this season’s castaways on Twitter until enough time had passed for people to put weight back on.

        1. Luckily I didn’t see any post island photos. But I worry about some of the photos of them socialising together. Then again I worried that the Ho votes from the members would be spoilers about who they liked on the island too.

      3. Andrea has been very self-deprecating. I’ve spent more time thinking about what that means than is probably appropriate.

        1. With Survivors, the simplest explanation is probably correct: She isn’t getting enough attention from the show, so she wants more.

          1. I wonder if the guests have been talking to her about it like she’s not on this season.

            Also, I think I saw a plug for this week’s that says Katie “Tina’s daughter” Collins will be on. I still won’t watch, but I figured I’d share the info here.

    3. Somehow Sarah is getting less screen time than Aubry. Well I guess it’s not “somehow,” she’s never gone to tribal and has no personality. Still, I hope it might be her instead of Andrea being idoled out, not just because I like Andrea more but because I want my Pick 4 team to be the first four boots after Week 1.

      1. I keep forgetting Sarah is on the season, honestly. I’m not sure she’s spoken since the first week

    4. I went with Varner and Sarah as well, but I chose to be even more of a contrarian and not trust the preview, and go with Hali. I think that Debbie will have her crazy attack, but still the tribe will do like Kass and Tasha and keep crazy person over player not in their alliance. (Just to regret it later, I’m sure.)

      Varner is just looking so bad at challenges; he arguably lost single-handedly last week, and his performance in the snake one was laughable as well. And as Malcolm has said, the Nuku tribe is not so tight as it might seem. Although it is hard to imagine that they will make up with JT, maybe they lose the challenge so badly that they feel there is no way they can make it to merge with Varner there.

      For Sarah, my reasoning is exactly the same: everything points out to Troy being saved by idol, and so far we haven’t seem anything at all that might indicate who he will vote for. So, I go with the edit, and Sarah is indeed getting a idoled out edit.

      1. My Hali/Debbie decision was basically 50/50 and I picked Debbie, because might as well ask for what I want for Christmas.
        Yeah, its the challenge thing and the emphasis on it that has me thinking Varner. I don’t really see the math on the Varner boot either – JT is the obvious boot and I would think any counter-alliance would be JT, Aubry, Michaela taking out Sandra, so really being contrarian with myself on my pick here

  2. Mana: I’m going with Hali, because I predicted 10th place for Debbie, and she’s going to do just that, dammit.
    But it’s probably Debbie.
    The other tribe: Troy’s Choice! I’m going with Andrea, but half this tribe is getting an idoled-out edit so far so it could really be any of them.

    Also, nice The Rock reference, Matt.

    1. every time I watch The Rock I hear that line and go “oh right that is where that is from” and then promptly forget where’s it from until the next time I watch The Rock

      1. Every time I watch The Rock, I think, “Man, they went a long, awkward way to fit that Rocket Man joke in there.”

  3. Indeed, it is prudent to inspect the purpose of one’s venture with regularity. Is there naught but folly in even feigning to know what is ordained only by the Survivor gods? For who among us can claim to have forseen the felling of Malcolm the Mighty? Can a man be aided by logick once the Almighty Probst, unannounced and unashamed, hast resolved to slay our faves? Yea, to predict the ways by which the horsefly turns might be a more fruitful endeavor.

    Sure, whatever

    Fifth boot: Ozzy, Hali, or JT

    First or Second boot: Tony or Cirie (+1)
    Third boot: Cirie
    Fourth boot: Hali, Cirie, or JT
    Pre-season winner: SDT
    Score: 1

    1. Literally how I pick a Pick 4 team every year. That team has always finished above real me and is currently 8th.

      1. I just need one more season to break my Carefully Calibrated, Very Scientific Drafting System™ and it’ll be fully random teams from then on.

        1. No, Random Luck is the random team, it’s the control against which all human picked teams must be picked. You must persevere in the knowledge you will fail.

      1. I can’t even tell, what you are ranking here. Is ist more desirable to be at the top, or the bottom of that list?
        Or is ist all part of the joke, that I’m also not getting?
        (I thought that is just because stupid disqus won’t show meine the funny picture).

        Also, what did you learn from that Challenge Video Last Week, that you didnt want to talk about until the episode was over?

        1. So, the joke was that he based his picks for the next boot on “unwordly and almighty” randomizer. At first it was in his original comment before “Sure, whatever” but cause it had an IP address he removed it and gave it in the other comment without it. And he chose the first person from each tribe (so it’s Ozzy, Hali and JT).

          1. Thanks, now it all makes sense. Actually it did before, just not to me. I guess coming out of the randominzing with these very reasonable picks for each tribe threw me off.
            Very suspicious, I wonder how many pulls on the Random Luck Machine that took.
            Not sayin’, I’m just sayin’.

            (shade thrown to divert attention from the fact that I totally forgot about the first post by the time I got puzzled by and replied to the second)

          2. I actually thought about drawing again because the results were too reasonable, but I decided against that because it wouldn’t be the spirit of True Randomness.

        2. God, I barely remember what I ate for dinner last Sunday, let alone what I was talking about last week. My best guess would be that I was talking about the third challenge video (looks like the IC for this week) that CBS errantly posted. The challenge was run in teams of five, which would suggest that Mana either won IC or were all safe at tribal (which they were)

          1. You seemed more confident than me in concluding that, though. Was it because you know more about the schedule they have for these trial runs than I do?

            (I also argued that here could be different trial runs, and that it could be a challenge from even further down the road, possibly after another swap.)

          2. I’ll admit that I don’t know about the schedule. What I do know is that Kirhoffer and Probst want everything as close to game conditions as possible because they’ll change even the smallest detail if it makes for a better/safer challenge or better TV. On top of that, the cameramen are rehearsing their blocking as well; it’s not just the dream team running the challenge. With that in mind, it makes sense for production to rehearse the challenges only after they know how the teams with be sized to best replicate game conditions. This way, they also only need to run a rehearsal once (remember that these cost money). Moreover, I would find it unlikely that the set team can or would build multiple challenge courses a week or two before they’re needed or that they’re working on multiple courses in multiple locations at the same time. Also remember that a lot of challenge sites are recycled, so a new course can’t go up until the old one is run and taken down.

            TLDNR: It doesn’t benefit production to run challenge rehearsals in bunches. In fact, it’s more costly by time and budget. It may be possible that it’s not even logistically possible.

  4. Mana: Debbie because plzzzz?
    Tavau: Andrea, because Troy and blondes
    Nuku: J.T. because if not, then nothing is right with this world

    I’m still keeping my fingers crossed for a ‘Debbie tries to sleep with Brad, Brad is like “I’ve got a wife and you are gross,” Debbie is unhinged, Debbie rage smashes many coconuts’ edit…

  5. This has been a completely unpredictable season so far! I’m not totally sure if that’s a good thing or a bad thing. In general I like being surprised by outcomes on Survivor, but when it gets really crazy like this I start wondering if there’s a disconnect somewhere. Maybe as fans we are rooting for certain outcomes and it’s clouding our ability to interpret the edit and make accurate predictions? Or, maybe the editors are amping up the drama so much that it is actually impeding our ability to predict? Anyway, on the bright side one could argue that this season is definitely shaking things up for the sometimes jaded long time Survivor fans who may have gotten a bit too good at reading the edit.
    As for my predictions for this week, I want to say Andrea, because that would clear out the last of the winner picks 😮 But I’m going to say Debbie, because of wishful thinking 😀

    1. I guess I didn’t say my prediction for Nuku. I think that everything is completely up in the air for them. The obvious choice would be to stick together and take out JT, because he betrayed them and also benefited his old alliance in Mana which probably means he has more options at a merge. However, they’re such a small tribe that all he has to do is woo two people over and all of a sudden they have a majority. I can see the opportunity to make a challenge strength argument to Aubry and Michaela that would probably be pretty persuasive. I don’t think Varner will flip on Sandra very easily, but JT might not need him. It’s kind of a shame that we haven’t seen more about the strategy and relationships of Aubry, Michaela and Varner, because I think that would be pretty enlightening right now. Are the three of them tight? Are there fractures, or competing alliances? I almost hope Nuku loses this week just so we can find out a little bit more about the UTR players over there (assuming it’s not just more of the JT and Sandra show).

      1. Malcolm’s exit interview shines ‘some’ light on things. Malcolm said he was very close with Aubry, and close with Sandra, but Sandra and Aubry were ‘feuding.’ Malcolm didn’t like Michaela, was meh on Varner, and was close with the betrayer. I get the impression that Varner may be close with Sandra. Aubry may be interested in working with J.T., but won’t unless she can be confident someone else will as well. Then Michaela I have no idea. Could be Aubry and her don’t get along because Malcolm didn’t like Michaela, but Malcolm is also a good actor, so it could be they are good. And i wouldn’t be surprised if Michaela is close with Sandra. My guess is that, so goes Michaela so goes the tribe, because Varner will be with Sandra and Aubry will only go with J.T. if Michaela does. And given that Micheala said to Varner she thinks J.T. snitched, I can’t imagine her turning on anyone in favor of him.

        Was that helpful or did I just puke words?

          1. Also, we can’t really say what Malcolm means by “feuding.” Like, are they openly talking bad to each other, or are they just throwing shade behind closed doors. The second seems far more likely (otherwise, we probably would have seen it), so i’d guess they are outwardly friendly and cooperative. In that case, an anti-Sandra or anti-Aubry vote might tempt either, but they probably wouldn’t actively crusade for it over J.T.

            And if you, like me, have both on your Pick 4, we can hope that they will both forget their feuds down the line and stick together. We’ve definitely seen people swallow that pill before.

          2. I only have Sandra, Aubry, and Cirie left of my picks so having them all feuding is no bueno!

          3. I was, SO CLOSE, to switching Cirie for Malcolm, based on episode 1 edits. That has to be one of the biggest bullet dodges in my life…

        1. This is helpful! I don’t generally watch secret scenes or follow much exit press, so most of this is news to me. I did happen to listen to Malc’s RHAP exit interview this time, but it’s helpful seeing all the intel laid out there. I think you’re right that Michaela seemed to be anti-JT at the end of that crazy TC so it’s unlikely that she’ll flip over to his side. Aubry is too smart to flip on her own, so they would need to persuade either Varner or Michaela, which probably isn’t happening. I wonder if Michaela could be convinced to flip on Varner, though? Hm…

    2. “Maybe as fans we are rooting for certain outcomes and it’s clouding our ability to interpret the edit and make accurate predictions?”
      That’s certainly the case for me when it comes to Debbie. I see pretty much anything she does as a harbinger of her imminent boot

  6. I think Sandra will go home if Nuku loses because I think JT will find the Immunity Idol. Finding that should be their top priority, and I get the feeling that this is a foursome that will let JT find it (and he will be hunting it down). Honestly, the smart move if they let JT get the idol would be to blindside Michaela and let JT waste the Idol.

    As for the others, I say Debbie and Ozzy.

    1. Oddly, this is the first episode where I am not concerned about Sandra going, which probably means she is going home.

  7. For Nuku I voted for JT. I can’t see any possibility where he gets out of that bad situation there (besides finding the idol, of course)

    Tavua is the most tricky one for sure. There isn’t anyone that stands out of that tribe as the one idoled out (at least the obvious one). I could still hope that Troy somehow screws it up, as I did in last week’s predictions, but now I’ll try being more rational this time. I’ll just pick Sarah, cause of the ominous preview for her, but I still could be wrong.

    As for Mana, I’ll go with the obvious and choose Debbie. I like her more than most, but if it’s a choice between her and Hali? You know who I’m gonna pick. On that note…

    20/19.Ciera (CORRECT)
    18.Malcolm (WRONG)
    17.Tai/JT (WRONG)
    16.Debbie/JT/Sarah (TBA)

    Pre-season winner pick: Hali (TBA)
    Mid-season winner pick: (TBA)

    And I still feel really good about my Hali winner pick. I think she played the TC (while not perfectly) well, and played her situation better than JT. And she’s awesome, that gif that Matt/rk gave is another evidence of that. All hail The Queen of Crabs!!!

    1. I was in a state of shock at the end of the last episode and don’t really remember the preview. All I have is a vague recollection of Debbie yelling at Culpepper (in my head she was saying “Fuck you Brad Culpepper” but I’m fairly certain that wasn’t it). What was ominous about Sarah?

      1. She’s gonna play like a criminal!

        (Note: this is in the most recent preview, not the one at the end of last episode, I believe).

      2. The preview showed her scheming saying she’s playing like a criminal now, etc. etc.

        EDIT – I will add that didn’t read that as ominous at all.

        1. I may’ve exaggerated the ominous part, but from that tribe I didn’t feel 100% certain about anyone, so I felt that picking Sarah was as good of a choice as any.

          1. As long as it’s not Cirie, I am happy. Would be great if both her and Sandra make the merge… even tho it would probably result in one of them immediately going home.

          2. I feel pretty sure that Cirie will make the merge (not too certain, cause I don’t wanna jinx it). With Sandra it’s really iffy, I can see her gettin voted out next or even making the end (I can’t belive that Sandra STILL doesn’t have any vote against her).

      3. I meant the sneak peek, not the preview, but in there Sarah said she’s gonna play like a criminal. It could mean nothing, but who knows.

          1. I believe so – interesting to see where that narrative goes. Really building a nice story there… she’s on my fantasy team and I STILL forget she is in this season.

          2. The only person I’m sure is on my fantasy team is Andrea. It is entirely possible I have Sarah.

          3. Yes, she did, but now after she went UTR these couple of episodes, it could mean a Lucy-like exit.

          4. I wouldn’t entirely mind that. Sarah is like, the player that I can muster the minimal amount of enthusiasm for here. It’s a bunch of people I would really like to see win/do well, a few that are “eh, ok,” Sarah, and then people I want to go home really soon (Troy, Debbie, Ozzy).

          5. I had that thought about FFGCSDT, but i was like “no, she’s not the same, she’s not that fun.” When she played the Taidol at last tribal, i literally thought “Wigglesworth would have made that way more fun.”

    2. FYI, I add in all the gifs to this post. These lazy bastards just send me text. Generally after I hound them for it.

    3. Same picks and mostly the same reasoning here. I think there’s an outside shot that JT convinces enough people he didn’t say anything but “It’s not you, Brad. You can trust me on that.” I could even see him hashing it out with Sandra, if she thinks they’ll need him going forward now, with Malcolm gone. Then Aubry should be concerned. But it seems more likely that they would just boot his traitor ass.

      20/19.Ciera/Debbie (CORRECT enough)
      18.Hali (WRONG)
      17.Aubry/Tai/Zeke (WRONG)
      16.Debbie/JT/Sarah (TBA)

  8. At this point my general assumption is that if something appears in the preview it is a complete fake out. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if it turns out Debbie was just reenacting the one-woman show she wrote when she was fifteen and all of those scenes end with the rest of the tribe applauding awkwardly.

    1. Generally I don’t put a whole lot of stock into the preview, but sometimes we get a Lucy Huang episode, just to keep us on our toes.

      1. there was one season a few years ago where the previews were exactly right every damn time (maybe Blood vs Water?). It was hilarious because we were joking about how if the preview said something it must be true, and how CBS got a new intern to cut the previews and he didn’t get the message to mislead people in the previews.

    2. Agreed but the preview did show Tai wondering if he can work with her. Why he is still thinking about that now…

  9. Micronesia Rewatch Thread:
    Yes, if you are participating in this rewatch, this is the first thread! Yay. Let’s stick to Episodes 1-4 for today. I will have my specific thoughts down below.
    Purple Tally and I have come up with some discussion questions. Feel free to answer or deviate from them as you want.
    1) How good is Parvati’s premiere episode edit? How lackluster is Amanda’s?
    2) What is your favorite episode of the bunch? What is your least favorite episode?
    3) Which Fan surprised/disappointed so far?
    4) How are you enjoying Micronesia so far?

    1. I don’t participate in this, but I wanted to say something: Tracy is really underrated, and I wouldn’t mind seeing her 2nd time.

      1. Even if you are not rewatching with us, please feel free to discuss.
        I am fresh off the Mikey B boot and yeah, Tracy had something that a lot of the Fans didn’t have.

          1. I agree, plus I put Joel and Nat in the “maybe” here; Mary who?- we will never know; and the others I think are “Fans”

          2. I don’t know how credible it is, but presumably the only people who were recruits were Alexis and Chet (it doesn’t necessarily mean that others were “fans” but at least the rest applied).

          3. Mikey B was a fan, right? I just remember him wanting to do a split vote, which was pretty new at the time.

        1. If it wasn’t Fans vs. Favourites, I would seriously see her getting far, or even win. Plus I don’t feel that she could’ve done anything different to fet further (I won’t say more, but I’ll come back to discuss about her after you get through an episode where she gets voted out).

      2. Tracy is my favourite of the Fans.

        Note: I hate the fans. Yes, including Natalie Bolton. ESPECIALLY Natalie Bolton.

        1. I find most of the fans entertaining, but they would not be able to carry a season. Do you prefer the Caramoan “fans”? No one ever says they do, but I could see an argument for them.

          1. Caramoan fans are much worse. Although Reynold and Eddie became enjoyable doofuses near the end.

            It’s possible that Michael Snow or Matt Bischoff had the potential to be better than anyone from Micronesia. But they didn’t get there.

            1. BvW loved ones
            2. Micronesia “fans”
            3. Caramoan others.

          2. BvW loved ones are better than 90% of tribes so that is a no brainer. I think once Hope, Allie and Shamar go things don’t look too bad – Laura was actually very promising so Sherri and Julia are the only real duds. That still makes half a terrible tribe though.

          3. Plus, while Reynold and Eddie ended up being enjoyable douchebags, it doesn’t change the fact that they were incredible douchebags. It’s just easier to take when they’re reduced to underdogs.

          4. Dog bar sounds goofy out of context, and I don’t mind the goofs, but y’all know it’s a genuinely good idea, right?

          5. There was a point where I was rooting for Eddie, after the Malcolm boot I wanted him and Andrea in the Final 3, probably with Reynold or Erik.
            Don’t judge me

          6. I was completely on board with the Andrea/Eddie sub alliance, but Andrea flipping at final 9 would have been the best outcome.

          7. Yeah, an Andrea-Malcolm-Eddie-Reynold alliance running the show would have been great because
            a) Malcolm likely wins, maybe Andrea and
            b) I’m shallow and they’re all good looking

          8. We would also have no teeth incident and non existent Brenda would be out sooner. Wins all around! I like Dawn and Cochran too, but more fireworks are preferred. Andrea’s “WHAT” would be missed though.

          9. Yeah, while it all turns out okay, I like the overthrowing of the power alliance timeline better in almost all scenarios and this group has the likable people to win and it be satisfying. Likely changes Game Changers though

          10. I was thinking about this too – if the fans were cast on an all newbie season, I feel like they would all still be total disappointments, and you’d need some really strong newbies to counteract that. I wonder how any of these people got cast at all?? Except Chet – he would be a fantastic dead weight in any season and I would love to see him get dragged along like a flaccid jellyfish in any season XP

          11. Ogre and Chet’s relationship makes the fans infinitely more enjoyable. I love how much those two hate each other

          12. Their back and forth after losing the worst challenge Survivor has ever done may be the hardest I’ve ever​ laughed watching this show.

          13. The only time Andy ever wavered about ranking Micronesia so low was when I appeared on the podcast to defend it and used that specific moment as why Micronesia is the best of Survivor as a tv show, not Survivor as a game. (basically Micronesia has crappy strategy and an unlevel playing field but fuck it is wall to wall laughs and entertainment.)

      1. Lol, yeah. Barbara Anderson posted a schedule last tuesday, it’s basically 4 episodes a week for the month. So, we are discussing episodes 1-4 here, next week we will talked 5-8, and so forth.

      2. Today, we are discussing Episodes 1-4 (aka the pre-swap)
        Next Tuesday, we will be discussing Episodes 5-8
        The following Tuesday is Episodes 9-13
        Finally, we will be discussing the finale, reunion, and season as a whole on April 18th

    2. 1) Honestly, i didn’t notice a ton, but Parvati is definitely given more credit for having ‘wrangled’ James than Amanda is for Ozzy.
      2) None of these episodes distinctly stood out to me as great or bad, just mostly okay. The first had a good start, but wasn’t as thrilling as premiers go in terms of mad scramble, and the strategy surrounding “will they or won’t they” for Fairplay. Having heard about a lot of the things down the line, i’m actually finding it really fun to see the build-up to some of the more notorious things that come from the season.
      3) Urm, all and none? Compared to some other season (mainly thinking BvW), it’s nice to see that the Returnees aren’t blowing the first time players out of the water. On the flip side, i haven’t been wowed by any of their personalities. The most interesting is Tracy. She’s been constantly knocked as unable to handle anything or survive in the slightest, but has held up well despite getting sent to Exile 3 times. Joel has been impressively unimpressive. Like, he pulled one over and managed to get our Mary and then Mikey B, but it hasn’t seemed very exciting at all.
      4) Enjoying, not hating, not obsessed with, just enjoying. Thus far, I think it’s been mostly pre-merge boring, which is to be expected from older seasons, but nothing to riveting in terms of strategy.

      I feel like i was incoherent as hell, lol. Someone else should have gone first…

      1. By Returnees not blowing first time players out of the water like in BvW, do you mean challenge-wise or character-wise? If you mean the second, I would argue that loved ones tribe was better than the returnee one.

        1. Lol, i hadn’t thought of that. No, i meant challenge-wise, but now that you bring that up it’s very interesting. I would agree, the loved ones tribe was more enjoyable, but worse at challenges. By comparison, the favorites tribes seems way more exciting. Also, again again now that you say it, the fans have lost like, 4 of 6 challenges, but they have managed to send favorites to tribal twice at least.

      2. I gave up on the “Fans” the moment they built two camps to manage their differences. That’s when you know that they will not matter this season.

        1. I think of that as a surface issue to the fact that they just aren’t that interesting. Like, when Joel is a point of interest, you know that’s an issue. And 4 episodes in, I can’t name half the tribe.

          1. I accidentilly called Kathy tracy, fyi. I partially agree. Her initial edit was not good, basically painting her as an obvious outcast, particularly with the two shelters. But, every episode has dropped little hints that she could be getting better? Like, she told Ozzy she’s trying to learn a new thing from each Favorite that she goes to exile with. Unfortunately, she didn’t learn how to swim, obtain an idol, carve a fake one, and wear the world’s stupidest looking hate…

        2. See, maybe it’s a matter of low expectations, but I was pleasantly surprised by the fans. Not that they’re any of them had a chance in hell of winning, but I understand what casting saw in each one of them, which is more than you can say about half the fans in Caramoan (if you discount “looks good in a bathing suit”).

          1. I think some of the personalities had a chance of working. But the concentration of idiocy was a problem.

    3. 5) It’s pretty cool that the entire direction of the season was dictated by Johnny Fairplay quitting due to (alleged) withdrawal. Discuss.

      1. That whole plot point was deeply suspicious wasn’t it? I’m sure you are far more in the know than I’ll ever be, but nothing about that rang true to me. Still, wouldn’t he have gone home pretty quickly anyway?

        1. Probably. But both sides were fighting for his vote at that moment. If he hangs on past day three, it’s possible that Parvati is sent home first and never heard from again.

          (Which would’ve been awful, btw. But does show how fragile everything is).

          1. I heard that they were probably going to vote out Amanda (don’t take me for a word, I could be wrong), but it’s so surreal to think that something that small could change the course of the entire Survivor history (“butterfly effect”).

        2. It felt like the Cambodia merge and how if you know the rumor about what happened between Kass and Tasha, then the awkwardly tense for no reason Tribal Council makes complete sense.

          1. Uh oh, now I clearly need to know that rumor as well. This whole watching without using the internet has left me clueless!

          1. Rob C, who, for whatever reason, is friends with Fairplay, straight out says on EoTS that it was pills.

        1. Did I hear my name called? Oh, I didn’t. Anyway…the story is that Fairplay was still on painkillers from being bodyslammed by Danny Bonaduce at the Fox Reality Awards not even a month before. If you noticed, Fairplay was fine until after the IC (so that would be Day 2 at the very most). The story is that Fairplay was mad that they let James have nicotine patches, but they wouldn’t let him have painkillers, so he cooked up this story so he wouldn’t quit.

          1. That’s why Fairplay is so pissed about Yau-Man “slamming” him into the boat. It doesn’t look like that big a deal unless you know how much pain his face was in already.

            I wonder if Probst was completely done with Fairplay after Micronesia, or whether Fairplay’s demons got worse, because he would seem like a no-brainer for HvV.

          2. Fairplay was already on Probst’s crap list after he reportedly tried to start a fight with Probst’s brother at the Vanuatu reunion. This was the last straw for Probst.

    4. 1. Parvati’s edit was fantastic. She was already more interesting than her 1st season and saavy in a fun way. Amanda was in the 1st episode? 😉
      2. I watched all 4 on a row and have no clue which was which. It was only a week ago. I am bad at this.
      3. Tracy surprised me as I didn’t remember her or almost any of the fans from my 1st watch years ago. It was still hilarious to see Kathy keep going to Exile island and not even trying to find the idol while Ozzy seemingly does it (and makes a fake) in no time at all.
      4. It’s easy to love because of how much I enjoy certain players like Cirie and Penner.

      1. I do feel like Kathy did okay with exile island to begin. She made a potential relationship with Cirie to start, working together to get the idol, and she didn’t help Amanda when she could have, to throw her off. But she was obviously foolish to think Ozzy wouldn’t go after it with or without her, so she shouldn’t have let him out of her sight. Also, that idol hunt was basically made for Ozzy. Swimming back and forth a bunch? Duh

        1. So, the deal with Kathy is that she ended up going cold turkey on some medications necessary to manage her mental health. That’s a good note to remember everything she ends up doing for the rest of the game.

          1. Holy cats, they allow medications out there for goodness sake, right?…what a horrible situation she put herself…mental illness is no joke. Damn.

          2. Do you know which meds it was? Most are absolutely not anything you should go cold turkey on. So many side effects! Scary.

          3. So, did she lie about her mental health to get on the show or do they not even ask those questions? It seems like they may look the other way for “good” tv or have I watched too much of Unreal?

          4. So I checked her AMA , and she said there she was taking (stil takes?) Zoloft and said she lied about not taking any meds (she said that they were threatening them that an alternate was waiting in a hotel room to take their place, and she was afraid that they will pull her out of the gate).

          5. That’s just awful. I wonder if that means that yes, they don’t allow those with mental health issues? Does not explain Phillip or Debbie…

          6. She said that she could take them. That situation of threatening probably was more to those who would’ve wanted to cause trouble pre-game (but it still sucks).

          7. It’s a common misconception that terrible, grating people must be mentally ill. Sometimes they’re just assholes.

          8. Umm, I was thinking more about how they enhance, self-aggrandize, and can be highly volatile while still often being right. I don’t actually think either are assholes–a term I’d use for Scot and Jason and Dan Foley. I truly feel they may have mental health issues about which I’m really sympathetic.

            But you were probably just going for humor, and I’m being too serious.

          9. Basically she was very nearly cast much earlier, at that point she was well and not on meds and passed on all the psych stuff they put you through. Between then and Micronesia she had had a child and got Post Natal Depression. She went on the meds but then didn’t inform the producers that she had changed her medical status for fear they would can her. The sad thing is they wouldn’t have as they really liked her.

          10. It bums me out because in her good moments you can entirely see why she was cast. She’s got a weird, kinda fun personality but watching her struggle is just sucky.

          11. I have a special place in my heart for Kathy. I wish she would have stayed on her meds out there. She seems like a neat lady, and properly medicated I could see her turning in a performance on par with a Caramoan Dawn (probably with the strategic acumen dialed down a few notches…)

          12. According to Eliza, during the marooning Probst brought up that Kathy was in the running the Vanuatu cast, and she said she was glad she didn’t get picked because she didn’t want to be on a tribe with two lesbians, so maybe not the neatest lady.

          13. Hmmm, but she seemed to be trying to rectify her backward ways with Chet so that really feels odd for her to say that in front of people.

          14. It’s easier to be for close-minded people open minded with a gay person of the opposite sex, because, ‘hey, this one isn’t gonna hit on me.’ Which is irrational, but well, bigotry is irrational.

            Also, the way Kathy exoticizes Chet in that first episode isn’t a great look, either.

          15. No, it isn’t, but I tend to give people the benefit of ignorance especially when, as she said, she doesn’t even think she’s met anyone gay. Meaning, I guess I’m hopeful that her opinion changed because she got to know him. Still, it’s always startling to realize there are still so many bigots around us all the time.

        2. It’s still hilarious how quickly he does it compared to Cirie or worse, Ami. Hahaha, still makes me laugh just thinking about it.

    5. I’m not rewatching Micronesia at the moment, but I did rewatch it a couple months ago during the off season, so I have some thoughts to contribute 🙂

      #1 I’m not much of a Parvati fan OR an Amanda fan especially this season. Parv just comes off to me as a mean girl who has an almost sociopathic ability to get people to flock around her seeking her approval, while she mocks and derides them behind their backs. I’m not necessarily saying she IS a sociopath or a bully or whatever, but watching her always gives me flashbacks to junior high 🙁
      I also tend to think that many of Parvati’s most lauded strategic moves are somewhat unnecessary or at least overkill, in that they only served to humiliate her foes on their way out (plus Cirie does most of the strategic work anyway). Amanda, on the other hand, comes off as a bit of a toady early on but I appreciate that she falls out of favor with Parvati a bit at the end and has to become scrappy to get herself to the end. In terms of the first 4 episodes specifically, I think that Parvati is probably at her most benign/inert and Amanda is mostly just subsumed in the stupid Ozzy romance plot.

      #2 This season actually has a really strong premiere, so I’m going to go with that ep as my favorite. And it doesn’t hurt that it’s the faves who go to TC, because that means we get to spend a little extra time with the players we actually like. As for my least favorite ep, I’d have to go with one of the two where the fans vote someone out because any extra time spent with them is yawn inducing. I’d say Tracy’s jedi mind trick with Joel in episode 4 gives it the edge over the one where they get rid of Mary (who?) and it doesn’t help that that is the same episode with the nasty lip smacky makeout sesh between Ozzy and Amanda (barf)

      For #3, I think the fans are over all a pretty disappointing group, especially in the first 4 episodes. I echo the sentiments of others that Tracy is a standout. I also think that Erik is actually kind of a cutie pie and adds something to the season over all (unlike his 2nd time around…)
      Over all, I think it’s pretty clear that none of the fans had any chance of winning from the get go, and I wonder if that was intentional on the part of the producers or just a coincidence?

      #4 I have really mixed feelings about Micronesia, but I do remember from my most recent rewatch that even though I went into it thinking “ugh this season is so overrated” the season really has an epic feeling even early on, and the season gets going a lot earlier and at a faster pace than even some of the better all first timers seasons. I think this is generally true of seasons that are at least half returnees, and I wonder if it’s because they require less boring exposition right away, or whether it’s because the players hit the ground running a bit faster? Maybe both?

      1. I actually love Micronesia and Amanda, but I have the same reaction to Parvati you do. I was really disappointed with her win when I first watched it because I hated her at the time. “Flashbacks to junior high” is right! Very late HvV where she turns her scorn on Russell and buddies up to Sandra warms my little heart, and I do admire a lot of what she’s able to do in the game and even enjoy some of it, but I just can’t let go of the bully/mean girl vibe enough to really like her.

      2. I don’t know if this will change your opinion at all, but if you’re interested here is what Kathy has to say in her reddit AMA when asked who should have won: “Parvati, absolutely. When I watched her on Cook, I couldn’t stand her. I thought her strategy was being a whore, and I thought that she gives women a bad name. But, after being on her tribe, I realized she has a heart of gold, and all that flirting is just the way she is all the time. She giggled, and smiled constantly even though we were all miserable. She really lightened, and brightened the camp. So I went from a Parv hater to a Parv respecter. She is a tough cookie.” and then later… “I’ve said before, Parvati changed my opinion of her the most. I never liked her ‘My strategy is flirting’ on Cook. It made me want to puke. But after being with her, she’s just like that all the time. Giggling, smiling and laughing. She shows a genuine concern, that although might be fake, feels really real at the time. I went from a hate, love situation with Parv.”

        1. That’s helpful. I really changed my opinion of her from Cook during this season. I came to respect and appreciate her in a way I hadn’t thought possible.

        2. Hm, a little yes, a little no. It does help a bit to hear that Parvati gives the impression of being a genuinely kind and caring person one on one, however seeing how mean and cutting she can be in confessionals (especially when she’s kicking someone who is already down) still gives me pause…

          1. I get that. I guess when I see confessionals I think of it more as their own thoughts than something they would say to other people. I also feel like I’m pretty similar to Parvati, in that I like to laugh at anything. I hate when other people feel bad, but when I am laughing about something/someone I hope that they are also laughing with me and about themselves. That’s how I see Parvati. Maybe that’s the wrong interpretation and/or the wrong approach to things in general, but I relate to her. I understand why it might be unlikable though.

    6. 1. Parvati came across great. We immediately got a good sense on why she is dangerous and what she does well. I saw bits of this Parvati in Cook Islands, but in one episode of Micronesia exceeded the entire Cooks run.

      2. The Yau Man boot was my favorite episode of the bunch. The standout scene for me was the Cirie/Amanda/Parvati conversation about where everyone stands in the alliance.

      3. Tracy was the standout fan. Good​ head for the game but was not surrounded by the best company. Her interaction with Joel was brilliant. Playing right into his ego.

      4. Loving Micronesia so far…again.

      1. AH, i forgot about their meeting on the surf board. SURF BOARD, Graining on that wood, graining, graining on that wood I’m swerving on that, swerving, swerving on that big body Benz Serving all this, swerv, surfing all of this good, good

        I’m so ready for BWB…

    7. 1. Parvati’s premiere edit is more generous than it needs to be. She does plenty of strategy as early as episode 2, but she doesn’t need to be given partial credit for Fairplay leaving (Danny Bonaduce should get more credit than Parvati for that.) It was giving me Michele flashbacks the way the strategy talk was shoehorned in. Like, it’s PARVATI. She does ACTUAL THINGS to earn her win, and they’re trying to fake it in the premiere. It’s a bit much. And Amanda gets the same “flirty/showmance” edit as Parvati without any of the strategy talk–plus a not-so-excited welcome from the fans, who had ZERO clue who she was.
      2. Um, all of them. I love Micronesia so much. All episodes are perfect. Like, even if the premiere isn’t spectacular, it has Fairplay, which makes up for anything it might lack.
      3. The fans are still kind of a snooze, but they are actually fans. Unlike many of the players on the favorites side.
      4. Second best season ever. Continues to be the second best season ever. My nails are currently painted in honor of the BWB. I have no regrets.

      1. “…plus a not-so-excited welcome from the fans, who had ZERO clue who she was.”

        This really says something about how UTR Amanda was in the early episodes of China, because the fans go bonkers when James is revealed.

    8. My big takeaway is that Parv is entirely the one who wrangles Ozzy, James and Amanda to pull Cirie over. That is probably her most important move all season. She does the thing to bring Cirie in and she reads Cirie right, that if they give her this move she will play with them not direct them from then on.

      1. I’m not much of a Parvati fan (I agree with Ms. Sweaterfan’s take: high school mean girl*), but you nailed it right here. This and two other moments of alliance construction/maintenance down the road (should we be vague about future episodes?) are why she makes it to the F3**.

        *Yes, I’m the Brenda fan. I know, I know…
        **I have takes about the F3, some of them hot.

          1. We’ll get to the F3 when we get there. I’m talking about 1) the various points where she could have lost Amanda, and 2) bringing in the peripheral members of the BWB. i don’t think Parvati played a particularly great game, but she was very skilled at building alliances but then letting somebody else lead them.

        1. Parvarti does do some high school mean girl stuff but her social game is on point post Cook Islands (and actually in Cook Islands, the only person who is negative about her in Penner). Kathy Sleckman’s AMA is so interesting for details of why people love her on Survivor, she clearly keeps almost all of her mean girl shit to confessionals (what everyone says you should do) and people like spending time with her. Even Eliza who could be considered the biggest target of Parvarti’s mean girl antics isn’t treated that badly by the women in Micronesia.

          1. Good point. Blowing off steam in confessionals is certainly what I would do. And Eliza wasn’t treated nearly as badly as in Vanuatu.

          2. Lots of our favourite players are man in confessional but nice on the beach. Parv does get a worse rep cos she’s pretty

    9. Okay thoughts on Episodes 1-3 (I’ll get back to Episode 4 later):

      This season is really unbalanced. The favourite stuff is good to great, with the standout being Episode 3 which might have some of the most strategic complexity I’ve seen in early Survivor. Let’s start with that, Cirie vs Yau Man:
      Sometimes the most important thing in Survivor is choosing the right allies. And Yau Man I don’t think is a significantly worse player than Cirie. The difference is that Yau Man’s experience on Survivor is to get a great ally from the start and ride that to the end. And that’s a good strategy! The problem is that Penner is not a good ally. Penner is a terrible ally. Penner’s abrasiveness with Cirie and his not even trying to hide the two-some with Yau-Man was disasterous. Also, Parvati and Amanda were able to offer Cirie an opportunity to be 3, Penner was not. Yau Man could not.

      So Cirie’s decision was easy. Even though there were two clear pairs, they gave her options. Penner and Yau did not. So yeah sorry Penner, but you played the situation so very wrong and Cirie played so very smart.

      As for the other episodes: A bit yawnworthy honestly. Despite the fantastic cast the only really great things in these episodes were Cirie and Penner, particularly Cirie’s confessional about how they had to keep crossing the ocean looking for the idol. That was adorable.

      The fans are typical Joel wanting control and playing a post merge game premerge. Not fun and not all that interesting.

      Hope it gets better or I may have to join Andy in the Micronesia is overrated crew.

    10. I’m not rewatching now, so I don’t really have anything super-specific. We talked about this a few weeks ago, but I can’t believe how amazing the casting of the Favorites is. The closest players to duds (pre-season) are Ami, who’s perfectly fine, and Parvati, who proves in Micronesia that she is not at all a dud. The favorites aren’t the best, but they provide sufficient entertainment to get us through to the swap. Overall, I think Micronesia has a pretty good pre-merge followed by a fantastic post-merge (possibly the best in Survivor history, or second to Cagayan).

      1. I missed this. Why was that?
        Sorry if I’m asking too many questions. I may be overly inquisitive. Hrm.

  10. Mana: Debbie. Please let it be Debbie.
    Nuku: JT. Or if he finds an idol Sandra. But JT.
    Tavua: The fact that Sarah existed in the preview worries me. So Sarah.

  11. After no picks last week, I selected Debbie, Sarah and Sandra. The first two is what I want to happen. As for Sandra, I think losing another challenge will get to Michaela. That, along with Aubry not liking Sandra, may save JT.

  12. Yes because a team with Varner Aubrey and Sandra care about challenge strength more than JT directly fucking them over

    1. How dare you lump Aubry in with Varner and Sandra. Aubry is one of the better water performers and she’s not bad with puzzles and strength based challenges. Varner’s one challenge strength is being a caller during the blindfold challenge and they already did that challenge.

      1. it was more about people not caring about challenge strength than any condemnation of Aubreys strength

  13. I look forward to a whole season of Troy dong puns. Malcolm’s comments about Troy’s anaconda might be the most entertaining thing about Troy’s Survivor career.

    Edit: Also, I’m betting on Debbie not going home. She’ll get booted for screwing up people’s games, not for being annoying.

  14. I’m predicting the first medical evacuation of the season after everyone from Mana except Debbie mysteriously wake up with cuts all over their bodies.

    1. Should’ve gone with everyone on her tribe dealing with a mysterious water-borne parasite. It would be more on-brand for Debbie.

  15. I want Troy to idol out Cirie for four reasons
    1. Cirie is the person i’m most worried about in fantasy that a lot of people have (Since Aubrey is such a non-factor so far if she has a single confessional about Sandra my boot pick moves to her)
    2. I dislike 4 time players on principle
    3. Watching the fandom implode would be fucking hilarious
    4. watching the fandom implode because it was Troy who did it would be even more fucking hilarious

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