Survivor Game Changers Week 8 Predictions

We’ve gotten past the merge of Survivor: Game Changers and it’s time to predict how the game will take shape.

Spare some pity for Mark this week, who correctly predicted last week’s two boots, but in the wrong order. Womp, womp. Ah well, that’s what he gets for basing his prediction on the show not wanting to give Ozzy challenges he excels at (cut to: a challenge Ozzy has won twice). If only he could’ve done like you all, and predicted Ozzy in both spots.

Boot Predictions

Andy: Now that the lines in the sand have been clearly drawn, it’s time for Brad & Sierra’s side to strengthen their numbers. Cirie and Andrea have set themselves up as the biggest opposition, provided that Sierra and Debbie ever decide to believe what Zeke told them last week. Of the two, Andrea has been the tougher challenge competitor and has yet to prove she can remain chill when the game goes sideways on her. I trust Cirie’s ability to work her way out of this situation more than Andrea’s (frankly, I wouldn’t be shocked if she gets Zeke out before she goes home).

John: I’ve resigned myself to this season not letting me have nice things. The only question is how long I’ll get to keep the few nice things that are left. After getting a reminder of just how awesome Cirie can be last week, I think her story will come to an end this week. Unlike Andrea or Michaela, Cirie probably can’t hope for an immunity win to save her.

Emma: It’s never a great idea when the ally you turned on (even if they turned on you first) doesn’t go home. If voting Aubry was a test, Zeke passed and might be able to survive a few votes with Sierra. Which means Andrea and Cirie’s crew are even more outnumbered. Andrea is both the one most likely to blow up emotionally and be the bigger immunity threat, so I think Sierra agrees to cut her loose.

Mark: For as defining as Zeke has been on this season, both good and bad, I feel like he’s about to face the wrath of a tribe wary of his game and his word. This is a guy who plays hard and has one of the best FTC speeches ready to go. If the dominant alliance could vote him out (with Andrea) and delay the hard decision a bit more, wouldn’t you? Never play a post-post merge game post-merge, my friend.

Matt: Andrea, because she is the person who can least keep her cool and blows up at Zeke. This in turn makes her more of a target, as does her challenge prowess and the mere fact she is a three-time player. While Cirie might be more threatening socially, Andrea could go on a run, and will draw a target to herself because of Zeke.

Andy John Emma
Mark Matt
First or Second Boot
Aubry Ciera Ciera Ciera Ciera Ciera
Third Out JT Debbie Cirie JT Cirie JT
Fourth Out JT Sandra Sandra  Sandra Varner JT
Fifth Out JT Sandra JT JT JT JT
Sixth Out Debbie Debbie Sarah  Aubry Ozzy  Debbie
Seventh Out Varner   Tai
Varner Ozzy   
Eighth Out Michaela Cirie Cirie Ozzy    Michaela  Ozzy
Ninth Out Ozzy  Ozzy   Michaela  Hali    Cirie  Ozzy
Tenth Boot Andrea
Cirie Andrea Zeke   Andrea
Preseason Winner Pick Malcolm Tony
Andrea Malcolm

*Reminder: Scores from the seventh episode do not count due to spoilers.

Time to make your picks. And feel free to track how your personal picks do throughout the year. I won’t make mention of it or anything, but you can still feel good about it.

Who will be the tenth boot from Survivor: Game Changers?

  • Zeke (33% Votes)
  • Andrea (28% Votes)
  • Debbie (14% Votes)
  • Cirie (8% Votes)
  • Sierra Dawn Thomas (7% Votes)
  • Michaela (4% Votes)
  • Brad Culpepper (2% Votes)
  • Aubry (2% Votes)
  • Sarah (1% Votes)
  • Tai (0% Votes)
  • Troy (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 96

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Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
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252 thoughts on “Survivor Game Changers Week 8 Predictions

  1. I picked Andrea (my preseason winner pick) as the pick. I think it’s too early for the Brad/Sierra alliance to try to go after each other, though I’m confident that it will blow up sooner rather than later. Andrea has been named as a target on the other side and has shown capable of being a challenge threat. Also, I think Cirie still has some moves in her to better her position. Also, it will be weird to experience Andrea talk about her own boot episode on her show. I may just skip that one.

  2. It is time for me to go with Debbie, because I predicted she’d go out tenth. I’m not entirely sure how that scenario would occur, other than “Debbie gonna Debbie,” which could be enough.
    In terms of what I think could likely happen here though: Zeke’s style of play is a little too aggressive for certain returning players who feel like they’re experts in the game and they band together to vote him out, pulling the shambling corpse of Aubry in to their side as an insurance vote.

  3. Blurry Denzel Power Rankings

    These are the players left that are most likely to win Survivor.

    1. Brad
    2. Sarah
    3. Sierra
    4. Tai
    5. Cirie
    6. Aubry
    7. Michaela
    8. Zeke
    9. Andrea
    10. Debbie
    11. Troy

    I’m usually more conservative in Survivor seasons before declaring someone as drawing dead in the game. This season has been somewhat different. I think the bottom four have pretty much no shot of winning, though I still hate the idea of saying they are drawing dead. Troy has been way too quiet (thankfully) and Andrea and Zeke are in positions where I think they can maneuver out of the least. As for Debbie, the show keeps telling me to not take her seriously. I don’t think the people she is playing with do as well. I don’t see her as someone who would get winning credit if she got to the end. I can also see scenarios where she is the first from the majority to get cut.

    I would bet pretty confidently against both Aubry and Michaela winning but i haven’t close any doors on sone wild shit happening.

    I think Brad is the clear favorite but I really like the position Sarah is in. Everything seems positive for what she is saying and she seems poised to benefit from crazy post merges where she isn’t the target.

    Finally, last episode was a beautiful reminder of why Cirie is my favorite player ever. Her mind for the game is something else and she can’t help but be the most lovable. She isn’t in the best position but she is the best player on this island.

    1. In terms of edit alone, I would put Aubry a bit lower on the list. I feel pretty confident that if she or Zeke (or even Andrea) were winning this thing, they’re all good enough in confessionals that they would be all over this season as narrators. Just thinking about the confessional gold on the cutting room floor is sad. Ditto for Cirie, but I would keep her where she is on the list because she’s at least been present enough that I don’t forget she’s on the season. Plus she’s really stepped into the limelight since the merge *ominous pre-vote out music plays*

      1. I don’t disagree that the edit is shouting that Aubry isn’t winning. I feel like it’s saying that for a lot of players this season for various reasons. Her ranking looks high but I would put her percentage of winning low.

        1. Looking at who’s below her on the list, I see what you mean. I ~might~ swap Michaela and Aubry but I’d concur that anyone below Cirie is a long shot.

          1. I wouldn’t, mostly because I’d say almost any combination of two other players would beat him. If he gets to the end with Brad/Sierra/Tai, they were all more key to that alliance than he was. If he makes it to the end with Cirie/Zeke/Andrea, someone from that underdog group gets the votes.

            Sarah and Debbie is his best chance, and I think even Sarah probably beats him with her connections to both alliances.

          2. The issue is that we really have no idea how people feel about him. This may shock you, but they might not feel the same way you do.

          3. Your argument is exactly why I have him rated so low. We don’t know what anyone thinks about Troy, but we do know what they think about Brad, Sierra, Sarah, Cirie, Debbie, Michaela, Zeke, etc.- for good and for bad.

          4. Maybe he’d beat Sierra, though. I can see people thinking someone that tall wouldn’t need a million dollars, when they can get by on the riches of being able to see things the rest of us shorties can’t.

          5. Troy is tied with Andrea for lowest amount of confessionals this season at 8 total, but half of his are about his idol (not that one). I would be very grateful to the editors if this was his winner edit though.

          6. I’d agree with that. The Top 5 of the Blurry Denzel’s list are who I could see winning, and that’s being generous to Cirie. There are 2-3 potential goats from the other 6 though

          7. I think Cirie has no chance.

            I don’t see how someone amazing could penetrate the wall of mediocrity in a season where anyone amazing is immediately targeted for being so.

          8. Zeke is my fifth, largely because his failure last week could make it easier for him to get by now. If it’s clear that he’s now less of a threat because Andrea/Cirie/Michaela don’t like him, the alliance of meh might be more likely to bring him in.

          9. They didn’t know that Natalie was amazing. Cirie’s ability in Survivor is not an unknown.

          10. Were the twinnies amazing in TAR? Maybe that’s why Dale was telling everyone to vote them out on day 1

            Also, how many of the remaining players do you think have seen all of Cirie’s seasons? Zeke, Andrea and Aubry sure.

          11. For the record: when you’re trying to argue whether or not four-time returnee Cirie is seen as a threat by other former Survivors is the time when you might want to abandon your argument.

          12. I would say that the people who have a chance in terms of the edit are, in no particular order: Michaela, Brad, Cirie, Sarah, Zeke, Sierra and Tai.

          13. For edit, I’d probably remove Michaela. She’s largely been reduced to the role of sidekick in her edit.

            For this season, I’m evaluating a little past edit and also looking at how every vote had been determined. The “vote out the strong” ethos is just too prevalent to ignore.

          14. I could see her continuing Cirie’s story after she is voted out, changing people’s perceptions of her, and going on to an underdog win, both from an edit standpoint and from what’s actually happening on the island.

          15. The reason I’m not high on Michaela is that hers feels more like a personal growth edit if anything, a la Aubry 1.0, Spencer 2.0 and David. The growth edit potential makes me hedge on Brad a bit too.
            That said, growth edits have won before – i.e. Cochran but combined with more traditional winners edits

          16. I do think she has a lowest chance, but she’s definetely a tier higher than others that I didn’t mention. And about what Andy said below: even though someone may not be a main character in a season, doesn’t mean that she has no shot. Side note: I have a hunch that Brad may be getting a final juror edit, mostly they on par, and sometimes even better than edit of a winner.

          17. Yeah, she is at least present this season. And I agree with you on sidekick edits, especially for female winners – see Nat A, Natalie W, and Sophie
            That’s a pretty good guess for Brad that I could co-sign

          18. And Michaela could be a sidekick to Cirie in FTC (well, she won’t beat her, but still).

          19. LOL at Cirie making it anywhere near the FTC. I’d consider it a miracle if she survives the next three votes.

          20. I’ll remember this comment once Cirie wins the season. Not that I believe she will, but I will hold up hope until she is gone or in the winner’s circle.

          21. You should just start with hoping to lord it over me if she survives the next three votes.

          22. If what we see isn’t a forced narrative (and I don’t think it is) it would be weird to hide such a great growth story just because she won. I also have been trying to ignore edgic trends recently though, and come at from the perspective of whether it would make sense for ANY show to give someone a winner’s edit like this. Survivor is capable of switching up their editing style, so I try to cling to as many possible winners as I can.

          23. This is fair. And I was one of those people who had Adam well down, if not at the bottom of, my list about this time last season – and you could well argue he had something similar to a growth story too which was natural and they wouldn’t hide.

          24. Those are my five two. With Zeke very much at 5 (and with a high chance of going home soon).

          25. Yeah, Brad is 1, Zeke is 5 the others are debatable. I could mayyyyyyybe see an argument for Cirie, but it is extremely unlikely.

          26. In a different season, I might rank Cirie more highly. I just don’t see a majority that have spent the entire season targeting threats suddenly forget to do that at the most important time.

          27. That’s surprising to me — I feel like we have been having Troy thrust upon us. But maybe that’s because however little screen time he’s gotten, it’s too much for me. And I guess they HAD to show him finding the idol…

          28. For the record, “I feel like we have been having Troy thrust upon us” is why I won’t sleep tonight.

    2. Mine is:

      1. Brad
      2. Sierra
      3. Tai
      4. Sarah
      5. Zeke
      6. Cirie
      7. Troy
      8. Aubry
      9. Debbie
      10. Andrea
      11. Michaela

      1. I understand that Michaela may not be a frontrunner, but no WAY she is at the bottom, I would put her above Troy. And it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Debbie wins, but she’s at least shown as strategic last episode, so I understand not putting her at the bottom. Andrea has by far the worst edit this season, and she definetely won’t win. And I would put Sarah above Sierra.

        1. 2-4 are in debatable order for me. I had Sierra at 2 because people on the island have declared her the leader.

          I had Michaela at the bottom because I think she is in the worst position currently. Her only real ally is Cirie and a lot of people out there don’t seem to like her. Debbie had too good a week to put at 11. I like Michaela, but I think she is nowhere close to winning.

    3. The real quesion is: Is Brad Monica 2.0 or Ken 2.0…meaning does he take 1 vote or 0 votes in the FTC?

      1. I would prefer, if Sarah and Brad are in the final, for Brad to win, because I’ve been running my mouth all season about how Brad is the obvious winner, but Sarah has been showing up more and more, and I can see the case for her winner’s edit.

  4. I am really living up to the Free on Tuesday Morning name here with all these posts

    Aubry Watch: Interesting to see how a player reacts to not being on the right side of the vote. I want to see if Aubry will try to fight her way into the established majority or try to flip someone against the majority. I’m cheering for the latter option but I can see her more likely going for the former option right now. Also, we need to see more camera time. At least enough to stop gouis and Andy from responding to my Aubry posts with “who” or “WTF is an Aubry.”

    1. They are now only going to respond with that, forever. If they don’t they missed an opportunity…

      1. I’m aware that I invited that response. They would’ve whether I said it or not. Running a joke into the ground is something I should expect. I do it myself.

    2. Aubry (jokingly?) posted a picture of herself the other day saying she needed an Amazing Race teammate. 1) HELL YES SHE SHOULD DO THAT. 2) I nominate you as said teammate.

      1. I would love for her to be on that show. I would legitimately say yes in a heartbeat, if asked. I’m not crazy about my chances though. So, here are the five people I would most want to be Aubry’s Amazing Race partner (besides myself)

        1. Malcolm
        2. Sandra
        3. Zeke
        4. Michele*
        5. Andrea

        *I’m on the Michele bandwagon. Maybe not as a Survivor winner but I think she can be great in the right setting. Amazing Race is that setting.

        1. An Aubry/Malcolm pairing would definitely be pretty awesome, if you weren’t able to participate.

          1. It would give Amazing Race a boost that they can use. With how well Survivor has cast lately, I’m surprised TAR hasn’t jumped on any players since Keith and Whitney, who weren’t even good.

          1. I love lists!! Though I’ve done enough that I’ve probably repeated at least a couple of them.

          2. Probably wouldn’t make the top ten, though commenting on PRP legitimately could make it. I do love a lot of different things.

          3. Fuck it, here’s a ranking. This is activities I love the most.

            1. Writing
            2. Eating
            3. Game Nights with friends
            4. Sleeping
            5. Music
            6. Watching TV
            7. Watching Sports
            8. Drinking/other not as legal activity
            9. Commenting at PRP
            10. Jogging

          4. I have 2 cats, does that count?

            I think by definition, if you are doing “an activity”, you must be active.

          5. The amount of effort I put into sleeping and trying to convince others to sleep DEFINITELY constitutes an activity 😉

          6. Yes, preparing for sleep is an activity – you’re doing something. But laying down and actually sleeping – that’s not an activity. Your body is literally doing nothing.

          7. While breathing can be consciously controlled, it is an unconscious process while you are sleeping. You don’t manually breathe while you are asleep. So, not an activity.

          8. 8. Drinking/other not as legal activity
            9. Commenting at PRP


          9. I thought everybody loved sleeping. Especially days when I’m incredibly tired, the feel of the initial eye close with my head on the pillow is the best.

          10. “Forget that – the real bombshell is HE LOVES SLEEPING MORE THAN COMMENTING AT PRP!!!”

            Nope, definitely don’t have kids.

          11. I think California legalized it out of spite once people started talking about Colorado all the time.

          12. I always thought the powerful “keep Californians out of Colorado” lobby was involved as well

          13. Spite is a great reason to do something, like legalizing marijuana, or returning a jacket so the salesman doesn’t get the commission.

          14. The list of my favorite episodes that I will eventually complete is my favorite. Out of the lists I’ve actually completed on this site, I had the most fun with 90’s albums, favorite Survivor seasons and Baseball teams from most liked to disliked.

          1. Having seen that, my immediate thought was like “are they just messing with us? Is this them being coy about how they are going on Amazing Race? Am I going to have to start watching Amazing Race just because of them?”

          2. I say watch Amazing Race anyway. It’s been surprisingly good this season. Everyone should watch the magic of Aubry and Malcolm on the Amazing Race and I volunteer to do recaps of it for this site if that happened.

          3. Is the most recent season the one which starts with them flying to the Panama canal?

            I saw some of it and a few other seasons, and i’m sure I would love it, because if i’m going to be 1000% invested in a show and watching all 34 seasons, I gotta do it one at a time. So Survivor it is.

          4. Yes, it’s the current season that started with that. I haven’t seen all the seasons myself though I do enjoy most of the ones I’ve watched. Not nearly as much as Survivor but it’s a pleasant hour to kill.

          5. Yeah, my boyfriends brothers is an Amazing Race junkie, we are Survivor junkies, so I assume i’ll eventually get to it. But first, i’ve got a lot of Survivor before I can join the ranks of completists.

          6. I’m now watching TAR and BB seasons (i’m now focusing on BBCANs, cause I wanna watch the one which is airing now soon). So far I enjoeyed both of them, but Survivor will always be the 1st in my heart.

          7. I’ll try to finish it till tomorrow, I’m now after Arlie has been evicted and Neda has won HOH. I’ll let you know when I finish.

          8. I picked up watching the current season during the Zeke week, because I heard people say it’s fun and I needed some show/podcast combo to fill the role of pleasant distraction, which Survivor couldn’t do 1-2 weeks ago.

            I didn’t regret it and can’t wait for new episodes. I really dig the concept of this season, but I also only watched one season before this one. I have no idea which one that was, but I think I finshed it and I’m pretty sure the host was much older than Phil.

          9. Phil was a host from a very beginning, maybe you watched TAR CAN or AUS, I think they have other hosts?

          10. Really? That’s a surprise. I’m picturing some white-haired guy in Safari-clothing on the pitstop-mat, but maybe it was just the representant of the country they were in?
            It’s been a few years since I watched that one season on low-def youtube videos, but I don’t think I was going for a non-US version.

          11. Umm, Phil has always been the host though. 🤔

            Oops, I should have read further to see my response was no longer needed.

          12. I still haven’t watched newest episodes, but I agree, it has been reeally fun this season.

          13. We used to watch it for a while — my friends and I still joke about the time there was a father-son duo that were in a European Castle somewhere and the son had to find a “candelabra”. He had NO idea what a caldelabra was, and started asking random people in the castle if they were a “Candle-uh-bruh” 🙂

          14. I support finishing the full Survivor experience before embarking on Amazing Race. I’m currently meandering my way through (I think) my 3rd viewing of the entire Amazing Race franchise (except for the Family season, OBVIOUSLY – I always skip that dumpster fire). Seasons 1 & 2 are solid. I just finished season 3 (ugh) and started season 4 (yawn) but I’d say season 5 is where things really start to pick up.

          15. Oh, I disagre with TAR 3 being “ugh”, it is my 2nd favourite only behind the 5th from the ones that i watched.

          16. I super, super can’t stand Flo, especially in the finale so my “ugh” is probably tainted from that. Otherwise it’s actually a fine season. The cast is okay, the course is interesting, the challenges are pretty good.

          17. I found Flo absolutely fascinating to watch, with how she absolutely had gone crazy to the time of the finale, and especially how Zach managed despite HER win (and I heard that supposedly she gave all the winning money to him). I absolutely get why it may detract from a season for someone, but I still loved it.

          18. When you describe it that way it is pretty fascinating, but in the moment her voice and attitude are just so grating! But I’m glad to hear that about the money! I’m guessing she was not happy with what she saw of herself on TV :/

  5. I went with Zeke. The preview suggested that we have two alliances, Zeke in the middle, and Sarah will try to make a move with him. This could be a facade for what is otherwise a boring ‘majority vs. minority’ vote, but my guess is that Sarah and Zeke try to pull in the Cirie-Andrea alliance to take out a member of the Sierra-Brad alliance. This all falls boils down to ‘can Andrea trust Zeke again?’ chaos ensures, and in the end majority + minority all agree to remove Zeke and his #BIGMOOVES game.

    The other scenario is that Andrea says ‘i’ll work with him, but i’ll never trust him again’ and they all aim at the Sierra-Brad alliance. If they target the right person (urm, Debbie or Troy?) then it could go down, otherwise i’d assume we have an idol coming into play. With 2 at his disposal, Tai would probably protect Brad or Sierra, and given their shining edits, I can’t see them going home now. So while i don’t want Zeke to go home, this scenario is worse because it would probably mean Cirie or Andrea get idoled out…

  6. I have no idea what is going to happen so I am going to go with something I think would be funny. In NTOS from the last episode, it showed Sarah saying to someone (Zeke I think?) that they could flip the game/vote or something to that effect (my memory is kind of hazy). Plus I think she had a confessional last episode about being the swing vote between Team Fun and Team Boring. There are also older confessionals of her discussing being a swing vote/free agent. So I’m going with the old standby of swing vote Sarah gets all power hungry again, Lords up the swing vote thing again, and gets booted in the swing vote position again.

    1. I believe it was Zeke and Sarah in the hammock and Sarah asking, “Do you want to make a big move?”

      1. Ah that’s it. Its likely swing voting then, or else my prediction is probably even more wrong than I think it is

      2. More making wild conjecture based upon random scraps of preview: Zeke made a pretty ‘ugh-oh’ i don’t know what to say face in that hammock. It makes me wonder if what actually happens in the hammock is Sarah warns him he’s the target. I guess they could have multiple conversations in the hammock, both to scheme and to check in, where she says that their scheming didn’t really work…

      1. I’m extra cranky. My 3YO has her cast off, but is refusing to walk, and therefore cannot go back to school yet. And all this sitting around has made her extra bratty, particularly towards me because I’m the one that has been home with her basically non-stop for the past 5 weeks. I’m losing my fucking mind.

        (I can curse here, right?)

  7. I chose Zeke this time but I really think it’s a toss up between him and Andrea. It depends whether the majority wants to take out an obvious strategic threat or physical threat. Also Andrea could definitely win immunity here (she is a challenge beast this season!)

    I don’t know how much credit to give the Sierra/Brad alliance, but if they know what they’re doing strategically, I would think they need to take advantage of the Zeke/Andrea conflict here and get one of them out. The reason I went with Zeke is that I could see someone on the periphery (say, Sarah or Debbie?) not liking that Zeke is trying to budge in on their spot in the alliance and thus targeting him first, possibly by bringing in Andrea and Cirie for one vote. If Andrea is angry enough she’ll definitely go for it, and at that point Cirie doesn’t have much of a chance of getting the numbers together to stop it.

  8. Here is the story of where I was when the one of the best Survivor pictures was taken. The NYC reality meet up on Saturday took place at this bar in Manhattan. There was an area of the bar with a partially open red curtain that made for a makeshift VIP section. I think it was a place for the stars to kind of take a break from the fans the bar area and conversate with each other. Nothing really waa stopping fans from entering though. So my friends and I did. We ended up receiving “swag bags” from Meg (BB17) and talking with Eric (BB8) when three feet to my right I see a mini crowd forming in a circle with cameras out and see all the ladies from Survivor gathered around for this…

          1. Anna was advertised for the event so It was weird she wasn’t there. This is just wild speculation on my part with no evidence to support it at all but I believe that with certain players that were there and the political beliefs that they hold that Anna decided not to go.

    1. I kinda love that you’re dishing out your story piece-meal. This is awesome and I wish (despite being less than 25 miles away), NYC was more accessible so I could come out to more stuff like this more often.

      1. It’s crazy. Before MvGX, I’ve never been to an event or met a Survivor, now I’ve been too many events and met way more players than I ever thought I would. Some players multiple times and a couple even remember and greet me by name. It has been a wild ride and a story that I’ll tell a different day lol.

  9. So I did this again to see how things were shaking out alliance-wise

    and there’s no way to shake out who’s going home. So the easiest thing to do is predict a medieval and hope it’s Troy. But that’s a copout I suppose. Since the challenge is A Bit Tipsy, I think Andrea and Michaela will be two players who have proved themselves to be challenge threats but whose challenge style won’t help them win this challenge. Moreover, I think Aubry is winning Immunity since she’s the only one with experience in this challenge. I’d argue that Cirie will save Michaela before she saves Andrea, and honestly, Andrea has absolutely no way to get the numbers if she cuts off Zeke entirely.

    Tenth boot: Andrea

    First or Second boot: Tony or Cirie (+1)
    Third boot: Cirie
    Fourth boot: Hali, Cirie, or JT
    Fifth boot: Hali, Ozzy, or JT (+1)
    Sixth boot: Sarah
    Seventh boot: Varner or Aubry
    Eighth boot: Michaela
    Ninth boot: Andrea
    Pre-season winner: SDT
    Score: 2

    1. I love this graphic. It is very helpful. I would like to argue; however, that the Cirie/Michaela line should be solid, not dashed. Unless you left it dashed for fear that making it striped would alert people to the fact that two strong power black women have joined together. We can’t have nice things, after all…

      1. dadgummit. You’re right that it should be solid because if I think Sarah and Andrea are solid, then Cirie and Michaela are definitely solid.

    2. If I had to guess I feel that this season’s end story will be Brad breaking these alliances in order to get the end and losing jury votes along the way.

    3. I would only change that Zeke is now much more connected to Brad’s alliance (particularly Tai and Debbie) than Andrea’s one. In fact, after last episode you could even put a red line between him and Andrea, signifying mortal enemies.

      But your graph is very helpful: before looking at it, I was thinking that Brad might take this easy time to get rid of Zeke, who is just too Big Moves™ for anyone to feel comfortable working with him. But actually the situation is still not that comfortable for his alliance: if you take out Zeke, then all the other people need is to flip Sarah (criminal!) and force a tie. (Although “If you come to us you get to pick a rock!” is not a very convincing argument.)

      So I think that they go for Andrea now, solidify the future Pagonging, and then next week get rid of Zeke to avoid any future trouble.

      1. Though I don’t think that Debbie and Tai will target Zeke, they haven’t shown a particular inclination to work with him. If he gets pulled into Brad’s alliance, I think it’ll be through Sarah. Otherwise, he might end up on an island of his own. Part of why I left the connection there between him and Cirie and Andrea is that Cirie and Andrea will need his vote and Sarah’s if they want to have the numbers at the next tribal.

  10. Does anyone know when the finale will be?
    Also, since we started with 20 people and to date they have only eliminated one player per hour on TV, do we think there will be some double boot eps coming soon? I haven’t heard anything about medevacs this season, but I suppose that is always a possibility too. I seriously doubt we’ll see any quits this time around, thankfully.
    Anyone willing to make predictions on when/who/how we may lose multiple players in the remaining episodes?

    1. May 24th is what I saw for the finale. Assuming we get six left for that date, we would need one double boot episode before then to make the numbers work.

      1. I was thinking through it, and while 6 going into the final seems like a lot, it would make sense for this season. If things go as the edit would seem, our final 6 will be the dud-alliance, maybe 5 with 1 exciting player who managed to scrap in, let’s say Aubry. So the final 3 boots could be Aubry, Troy, Debbie, leaving Tai, Brad, Sierra for the final. Not exactly an ‘action packed’ finale in terms of star power, and if Brad-Sierra are running things as smoothly as it looks, those votes will probably be pretty boring. Maybe Troy uses his idol, but then Tai reverse uses one of his?

        Anyway, my point is, if we have a dud-heavy finale, it would make sense to pack all the dud-boots together. In MvGX, our final 3 boots were Bret, Sunday, and David, and while the David one was a bit more dramatic, it made sense to group Bret and Sunday together. KR had so many evacuations it didn’t mattter. Cambodia had the amazing Kimmi tribal, but Kieth and Kelley’s tribals were less eventful, largely cause it was clear what was going to happen.

        Maybe, what i’m really finding out in this too long post, is that the last couple votes are usually just predictable and boring. Enough so that Survivor packages them as ‘3 boots in the finale!’ to overcome the fact that they are 3 uneventful boots before the FTC….

          1. Woops. well, the Jay tribal was glorious, so that destroys my theory. The last boot wasn’t really action packed, just dramatic to find out if Ken chose Adam or David.

          2. I actually really liked the MvGX finale because all three tribal councils were crucial and dramatic for completely different reasons.
            Remember that we got the bad Adam idol play at F5.

          3. Ah, that is right. Well, MvGX may not be the best example. Even if not a trend, I would hope that they group the dud-boots this season, rather than making us watch, say, the Cirie and Micheala boots back-to-back. That would be like watching Beyonce not win the grammy twice in a row. Particularly considering I was hoping for some Beyonce and Serena are both pregnant at the same time world conquering kinda shit. But we can’t have nice (or amazing) things this season…

          4. They can’t control which people get voted out each cycle. They plan things in advance so they can not help if two of the most interesting people get eliminated in that cycle. It is sad but necessary evil.

          5. By cycle do you mean episode? Obviously they can’t choose the order people get the boot, but when they come back from filming, they know the order before they start editing. So, if they know there are 17 boots across 14 episodes, they can choose which boots to show together. Two high drama councils would probably not get shown back to back, while two low drama ones would be natural to group. For example, Varner’s boot needed its own dedicated episode. If they had shown that, and then the merge, it would have been terrible

        1. I think the logic here is right – generally a F3 or F4 group seizes control and runs the last few boots. Even if they don’t, with so few players there is usually little strategy to show, which allows it to be compressed into a fairly short cycle.
          The thing is, I think the producers now expect this and thus plan a 6 person finale and don’t really now have a backup plan when its dramatic (i.e. the Jay boot could have easily been a standalone episode and the MvGX finale would not have dragged, where I think if you sever the Kimmi boot from Cambodia, its finale may have)

        2. I don’t want to pile on to you anymore, but, as the established non-MvGX fan in this community I’ll say I went into that last episode thinking “Man, anyone could win this. Oh except Hannah or Ken. But the other four could all totally win. That’s exciting.”

          1. I have, as noted below, admitted that MvGX was not a good example. But i still stand by this season ending with a trip to dud-city!

        3. I argue and the perfect about tribal councils is two + plus the final tribal council. It allows for all the people to be victorious and allows for people to have a moment to contestants be people. The character moments in the end are cut because they have to show all this content. However this is mind of someone who loved Rites of Passage in that final episode.

        1. It could be for similar reasons too… two dull people get taken out at the end, which will be full of dull people.

          Keep going with single boot episodes while the season takes out all the stars, then yada yada the end.

    2. I think there may be a medevac this episode, but I wouldn’t put money on it (though if it does happen, I’m thinking either Troy or Michaela). Part of the impact on scheduling is that it would have to happen before the reward challenge. If all we get is one-hour episodes, then the medevac comes before the reward challenge and everyone still goes to tribal. It’d be a 50/50 chance, assuming there even is a medevac.

        1. It was based on this, which doesn’t scream medevac, but it doesn’t not do that either.

          Although I just checked something CBS-published and I can guarantee that no one gets medevaced at the reward challenge. So I was wrong.

          1. Hm the most inspirational moment of the season? I’m dying to know what it could be! The commercial got so melodramatic I thought it was going to be a joke 😮

          2. Ah yeah good call. It’s awfully early in the season, but they may have intentionally scheduled it early this time to increase their odds of a Monica appearance?

          3. That wouldn’t be surprising. Maybe Monica will give her blessing of “You can win the show I chose as the only aspect of my life not dominated by you” to Brad. We can call it the Tyson-Blessing.

          4. GAWD I WOULD LOVE THAT.

            She shows up with the superbowl and is like, oh yeah, I lead the Patriots to victory, I guess i’m the bread winner now BRAD!

  11. So.. vote out Zeke and kill the flipper? Not that he necessarily flipped, but just because he’s now in between alliances.

    I think, while Sarah did make comments about being up for grabs, people haven’t been talking about voting her out. Because Sarah.

  12. So, I’ll try to go with an unpopular pick, and choose Sierra. Sarah will fimally play like a criminal and take out every criminal’s mortal enemy-the sherriff.

    Plus, since Quenn of Crabs and Cobras, Hali, has been voted out, I have no winner pick, I’ll pick another one when there will be a new poll for a winner pick. I’m debating between Sarah and Cirie right now.

    20/19.Ciera (CORRECT)
    18.Malcolm (WRONG)
    17.Tai/JT (WRONG)
    16.JT (CORRECT)
    15.Brad (WRONG)
    14.Varner (X)
    13.Troy (WRONG)

    Pre-season winner pick: Hali (WRONG)
    Mid-season winner pick: (TBA)

    1. Also? I like your “Sierra going home” theory. I do think she’s getting a bit of a “hubris” edit at the moment, which is always a favorite of the editors, it seems.

      1. There’s definitely a hubris edit for Sierra, I’m just worried the pay-off is “gets stomped by the noble Brad at FTC”.

        1. Yeah, I’m hoping it’s one of those “I’ve got the world in my hands” comeuppance edits where people go out somewhere before FTC. But if she does get stomped by Brad, eh, that’s ok.

  13. In another thread, prettyboyprobst and I were discussing the growing resemblance of Game Changers and Australian Survivor. I then realized that the 11 remaining GC players map fairly directly onto the F11 of AU Survivor. So my predictions are going to be based on the boot order of AU Survivor until it doesn’t work any more. This week: Zeke, the American Nick.

    1. Oh no, if this is based on game positioning, are Cirie and Michaela the Sue and Jennah Louise? Or is Cirie the Brooke because she’s the best?

      1. Oh no is right (don’t spoil it). Yes, Cirie is Sue and Michaela is JL. Those two and the F3 are the spookiest matches. Andrea is the Brooke because she’s the prettiest (not all of them are perfect matches).

        1. I would almost say this could make Aubry the Kristie, but I guess she’s probably the Kylie 🙁

          1. Come on, there’s only one person who could be the Kristie. I had Sarah as Kylie (because of occupation) and Aubry as Flick, but based on game position it actually works better the other way around.

          2. I really hope Sarah is the Kylie, because her winning is my new (plausible) most dreaded scenario. I was thinking of Aubry as Kristie because she’s the super fan who ends up winning after being on the outs, but you’re right. I also found myself genuinely happy for Kristie even though the season’s outcome was…bizarre.

    2. It should probably be spoilered, but for those of us who skipped AU Survivor, does this read offer us any meaningful hope going forward?

      1. The short answer is no. The long answer is that at least the outcome was…. unexpected is probably the most positive spin to put on it. Further details if you want them: The post-merge was dominated by a showmance couple (one of whom was a retired athlete!) marching straight to the end because every time the person on the bottom of their alliance decided to make a move it was too late and they didn’t have the numbers. The pattern was the same almost every time: the minority alliance would be one vote short and they would beg the (possibly clinically insane) goat the power couple was dragging to flip, and every single time she refused. Then the insane goat unexpectedly won the final immunity challenge and broke up the power couple (it was an F2). Then she gave a loopy, mostly bullshit, but committed “I was Keyzer Soze all along” type FTC speech and won (also by this time the jury despised the power couple). I probably don’t need to spell out who wins Game Changers in this scenario.

        1. For those who watched:
          Actually, people REALLY wanted to vote for El at the end if she made it. People said that the edit wasn’t at all fair to her, and that she was liked by everyone, and was more strategic. And I don’t know about everyone, but at least Nick said coming into FTC felt he would probably vote for Lee, but Kristie to him had a great FTC performance, and he said that her was even better than Todd”, cause people were more likely to vote for him at FTC than Kristie (for example he said that she built her sentences really well, when she didn’t in previous TCs, but from a few conversations they had on an island, that she was the FTC Kristie, plus when he asked her to which winner she would identify with, she answered with Danni, and why she felt that way, really feeding into his question).

          1. it doesn’t surprise me that El was nailed on to win, even with her edit in the latter stages, I felt throughout that she was strategic throughout, she was with Pheobe early and was clearly an equal partner in the discussions, she then found a really solid alliance with Brooke and Flick, as well as a dopey idiot who was her extra vote in Lee. Sure it wasn’t presented as strategic but I saw her personal relationships as much closer to a Parvarti than a Bob.

          2. Let’s just say my opinion of some key players of the AU cast further declined when I got around to their exit press (and RHAP appearances).

          3. And what were the things that made you do so (and I think that Nick was the only one on RHAP and he didn’t come of bad to me)?

          4. There is more than I care to elaborate on now.

            Many just showed that they had not as much understanding of the game as I liked to think/hoped when watching. Nick was almost insufferable in his desire to make his season and the gameplay of some finalists appear better than I’m willing to believe it was.

          5. Fair (I didn’t really read any exit press btw, the things that I’ve heard are mostly hear-say). When I watched the finale I did thought that Kristie had an amazing FTC performance, and I do think that she isn’t as bad as people say she is, but I could see why she may’ve gotten more credit post-game than she deserved. Plus I do think it’s natural that he wants his season to be remembered as a good one (and I do think that it had a really good pre-merge and from Brooke boot to finale).

          6. Agreed, the pre-merge was really good at times, and at least decent overall. The endgame was memorable, but too much of a head scratcher for my taste (and long-drawn-out, but of course that’s a given with this Australian Survivor season).

            And I’m probably way to grumpy when it comes to that season and how it is looked at in retrospect to call any of my opinions fair.

            Nick otoh is too invested in making himself and his season look good for me to take many of his opinions at face value. And it was also the classic exit interview move of making his own game and perception of the game appear more sound than it probably was, that has irked me about his appearances on podcasts.
            Btw, I’m not yet through all the player interviews that I wanted to listen to myself, many of them occupy valuable space on my audio-device, so I’m also not really an authority in terms of postgame-analysis at this point. And most of the stuff I learned from these interviews, I struggle to remember by now.

    3. Jesus, do you really remember the final 11 of Australian Survivor. Wait, do I? Off the top of my head. El, Lee, Kristie, Flick, Nick, Brooke, Jenna Louise, nope I’m done.

        1. It made it really hard to track the alliances and who had the numbers last episode when I could never manage to get them all at once

        1. Also seriously, Kylie made F11? part of me wanted to say ‘that one girl everyone hated for reasons that were never explained’ but I didn’t think she went that deep.

  14. I have a feeling it’ll be Andrea, and I have at least two students who are going to be really sad about that. Next to Michaela, she’s their favorite. I can’t quite get them on the Cirie train, but I’m working on it. (One still calls her Shirie–I told her to tell her parents to show her Micronesia.)

    1. One of those students just told me she ordered me a Survivor mug on Amazon, which won’t get here before my last day, so she’s making me one. Now I really don’t want Andrea to go home, because I don’t want her to be sad.

  15. @disqus_3Sm0bOf1sj:disqus, I just finished BBCAN2, so if you have any questions about my thought you can ask them when you read this comment (or I just say my thoughts if you don’t have any particular ones).

    1. The only question I have besides your general thoughts on the season is what are thoughts of Neda as a player?

      1. Regarding the season, I really liked it. It was never stale, the cast was really good (but I would say that I still prefer the 1st one’s, I don’t know why), and it was really diverse. From the ones that I’ve watched from all the versions, my favourite is so far still for me BB 3 (I watched BB 2-5, and BBCAN 1-2).

        And regarding Neda, I thought she played a really great game. She was UTR in the beginning and she made some really good strategic moves as convincing Jon to get rid of Arlie, caming up with a lie during Allison eviction etc., and she probably would’ve won even with Jon (I think so at least). The only real mistake was not winning final immunity, and not convincing Jon that she is less of a threat than she really is.

        And what’s your opinion about this season, and Neda (and if you want something more about my thought, you can ask)?

        1. I love BB Canada 2. It’s probably my second favorite season after BB 6. The cast is so great and it never got boring. So many great moments. I really wished the US version cast like the Canada version.

          As for Neda, I pretty much agree with everything you said. She played an amazing game.

  16. Another CBS bracket update:

    In this round Cirie beat Wentworth, MALCOLM BEAT OZZY, Sandra beat Natalie A and Rob M beat Tony.

    I’m so happy that Malcolm won, and thanks to that I would be happy with anyone winning now. Besides that, the only one where I was a bit surprised is Rob/Tony one, but I knew it could go either way.

    And the semi-final match-ups are:
    Cirie vs. Malcolm
    Sandra vs. Rob M.

    1. Rooting for a Sandra vs. Cirie championship so hard. After they let this season crush my dreams so thoroughly, it’s the least they could do for me.

      1. And we’ll know who the REAL winner of this battle is (you better not dissapoint me voters

  17. I just realized that the predictions logo spells out PRP. Hi, I’m Taako, and I’ve been coming to this site for years.

    1. I finally watched Drag Race last night and here are my reactions:

      1.) One of Shea or Nina is winning and the other is coming in 4th so she can be eligible for Miss Congeniality. Overall, I think it’s more likely that Nina is the winner, but it could run the other way. It’s notable the the judges have yet to call Shea out on how bad her makeup is.

      2.) I don’t care if Eureka was apologizing, I did not need more eating disorder stuff in this episode.

      3.) That said, after six weeks on crutches, I feel for Eureka. That shit suuuuuuuuucks.

      4.) I was not in any way excited for Meghan Trainor, but Meghan Trainor, no. I kind of thought the hatesong article on the AV Club that straight called you a moron was mean, and then you showed up in that unicorn onesie and I thought, “maybe dude has a point.”

      1. Shea’s makeup is so bad. I’m completely clueless about makeup, but even I know that eye shadow is not supposed to go between your eyes XD

        And all of the eating disorder stuff was handled so poorly, I thought. I especially didn’t like how Eureka kept making it all about her.

        1. I like the show but am having a hard time getting into this season. Something about the casting isn’t doing it for me. I haven’t watched this past weeks episode and not feeling motivated to do so. Is it me or is this season a step down from the past two?

      2. Based on these first four episodes, I’m predicting Shea beating Sasha and Valentina in the finals with Nina and possibly Trinity finishing 4 and 5. I actually don’t know if Nina is a lock for Miss Congeniality; that seems like more Peppermint’s or Cynthia’s gig (but definitely Shea if she doesn’t make F3).

        1. It’s really hard to say because this season is a hot mess. When Alexis popped out during the challenge I was like “I love this, why have I not known who you are before this? Oh right, because I don’t know who anyone is this season.”

          I can see the fans rewarding Cynthia with MC just because of her story, but I don’t see her making it much deeper. Landing on the bottom wasn’t a fluke, and, if they hadn’t had to pull Eureka for medical reasons, both of them should have gone home.

          1. I don’t think either of them did something that qualified as ‘winning’ with that lip sync. Like I said, I would have been happy with both of them going home.

          2. Oh, I misread your comment and thought you were saying both Eureka and Cynthia should have gone. I get what you’re saying now.

    2. I read this when you first posted it and had to look at the logo about 15 times (over several hours) to actually see it. So, just know that there is at least one person here even slower on the uptake…

      1. This is sort of like finding out out that that funky symbol in the Disney logo is just the letter “D”.

  18. I’m gonna guess Zeke goes home. Zeke has done enough of a job alienating himself from either alliance and, fair or not, now has the potential for a dreaded “final council story”. I think it’s Zeke’s time to go home.

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