Survivor Heroes vs Healers vs Hustlers Finale Predictions

Lots of predictions to make heading into the finale, so it’s a good thing none of us shot our wads with a long ass post predicting a bunch of stuff. That would make this anticlimactic.

Note: there are spoilers that have been available since the preseason for a twist this finale. We all know it and can’t make our predictions without mentioning it. So if you want to remain unspoiled, avoid this post. Because we will be speaking freely of it, and so will commenters (without tags). BE FOREWARNED!!!

 

Reader Predictions

Make your finale predictions

Who will finish fifth in Survivor HHH?

  • Mike (54% Votes)
  • Ben (28% Votes)
  • Devon (11% Votes)
  • Ryan (3% Votes)
  • Chrissy (3% Votes)

Total Voters: 116

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Who will finish fourth in Survivor HHH?

  • Ben (32% Votes)
  • Devon (24% Votes)
  • Ryan (20% Votes)
  • Mike (18% Votes)
  • Chrissy (6% Votes)

Total Voters: 114

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Who will finish third in Survivor HHH?

  • Chrissy (42% Votes)
  • Ryan (41% Votes)
  • Mike (10% Votes)
  • No one (tie for second place) (5% Votes)
  • Devon (3% Votes)
  • Ben (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 111

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Who will finish second in Survivor HHH?

  • Ryan (32% Votes)
  • Chrissy (31% Votes)
  • Devon (23% Votes)
  • Ben (10% Votes)
  • Mike (4% Votes)

Total Voters: 110

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Who will win Survivor HHH?

  • Devon (45% Votes)
  • Ben (35% Votes)
  • Chrissy (12% Votes)
  • Mike (8% Votes)
  • Ryan (1% Votes)

Total Voters: 112

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Staff Predictions

Andy

Fifth place: Ben is somehow immune (via necklace or idol) and Mike, the biggest threat not named Ben due to the concentration of Healers on the jury and due to the fact that Devon has everyone fooled, is taken out instead.

Fourth place: LAST WARNING! ADVANTAGE SPOILERS TO COMMENCE!!! Chrissy wins the final immunity and challenge and chooses Ryan to go to the end with her, triggering a final firemaking challenge between Devon and Ben. Devon loses. A bright, beautiful light is extinguished.

Third place: Chrissy has felt like a no vote getting finalist for so long I forgot that JP could reasonably vote for her and keep her out of last. Fuck it. I STILL say he doesn’t (despite publishing something just yesterday that says he will. Hedging!)

Second place: Ryan gets a vote from somebody. Check my unassailable post from yesterday to figure from whom.

Winner: Ben fulfills the destiny of “guy who will win if he gets to the finals” that everyone has been bestowing on him since just after the merge.

Bonus predictions:

  • JP will not speak in the final tribal.
  • No matter how much the jurors tear into Chrissy, people will still say that the rest of us are making things up in regards to her likeability.
  • Chrissy’s fake/expired idol will do nothing strategically. Especially since you don’t need a fake idol if no one wants to vote you out.
  • The reunion will be hot garbage.

John

5th place: I think the Devon, Chrissy, Ryan alliance is a real thing, and I think they really want Ben gone. But I also think Ben is going to be immune for this vote, so Mike will go home.

4th place: Assuming Chrissy wins immunity, Ben and Devon will be going to a fire challenge to determine who makes it to final tribal with them. Of course, Devon’s bright and beautiful light ignites the kindling and leads him to a victory, sending Ben to the jury to become yet another Devon voter.

3rd place: Upon further consideration since the podcast, maybe Chrissy gets JP’s vote? JP is such a void that I have no idea how he would vote. But other than JP, I can’t imagine Chrissy getting anyone else’s vote.

2nd place: I’m not sure what Ryan‘s case would be to a jury. He can’t argue that people were trying to get him out and never did it- they never tried. He can’t argue he called the shots- the fact that he wasn’t in on it when the 7-person alliance split shows that. He can’t argue that he had a superior social game (though I’m sure he will) if he’s sitting next to Devon. Maybe he tries some really strained joke about how terrible he is with women, and that nets him a vote?

Winner: Devon‘s win would redeem the season ever so slightly. He’s been the best player since the merge (although that’s not saying much), voting in the majority every time. And if he’s not up against the person everyone has been claiming would win easily, the easy win should be Devon’s to grab.

Emma

5th: Mike just screams final five boot. He’s the one they’ll suddenly be afraid of as a jury threat. I don’t know if Ben is immune or they just get scared, but they vote Mike instead.

4th: Ben then beats Devon in the final four fire-making challenge.

3rd: Ryan gets no votes and is barely spoken to at final tribal.

2nd: Chrissy gets JP’s vote and is excoriated at final tribal.

Winner: Ben.

Matt

Andy asked me for 5 predictions, so here goes:
  1. The season will suck.
  2. People will defend Chrissy despite her sucking.
  3. There will be a fire challenge.
  4. Mike will still be clowned on.
  5. I ran out of predictions.

Also, the boot order is as follows: Mike goes 5th, Ryan goes 4th, Chrissy gets 3rd, Devon 2nd, Ben 1st. Why not, I’m feeling wild (this is the scenario where either Ben or Devon win the final immunity challenge).

Mark

Oh my God, I got one right! With this newfound cockiness, I’m here to tell you exactly how this season will end. Probably. Maybe.

5th: Chrissy plays her fake idol here, and thanks to Ben’s shenanigans, people believe it’s real. With his whole tribe on the jury and no more idols to waste, the other players cut Mike loose on his raft to Ellis Island. (Editor’s note: how does Chrissy’s fake idol result in Mike’s departure?)

4th: Here’s where it gets interesting. There’s supposed to be a new final four format (4mat?), so I think Ben has a chance to win any fire challenges against his likely opponent. This won’t be an immunity challenge, so everyone votes for Ben and Ben votes for Ryan because he knows how pathetic he is. (Plus you eliminate the brains behind the whole season.) Thus, Ryan goes out at the very end. (Editor’s note: this is not how the twist supposedly works).

3rd: The one thing these jurors can agree on is that Chrissy sucks. She gets zero votes and third place.

2nd: IF there is a tie, I think Chrissy’s emotions run high and votes for Devon out of spite. Thus, Ben just misses out on a win, and all the Aubry fans lose their minds… (Editor’s note: whuck?)

Winner: …as bright light Devon pulls out a surprise win. His winner reel consists of a GIF of him on that beach over and over.

 

 
Andy John Emma
Matt Mark Readers
18th Place Katrina Chrissy Katrina Katrina Katrina Katrina
17th Place Simone Patrick Lauren Ali Lauren Lauren
16th Place Lauren Lauren Patrick Patrick Lauren Lauren
15th Place Joe Jessica Joe Joe Cole Joe
14th Place Roark Roark Roark Roark Roark Roark
13th Place Ali JP JP Ali Chrissy Ali
12th Place Cole JP Desi Cole Cole Cole
11th Place Joe Joe Desi Desi Joe
Joe
10th Place Joe Cole JP Joe Joe
Joe
9th Place Mike JP Joe Ashley Ashley
Joe
8th Place Joe Joe Ben JP Mike
Joe
7th Place Mike Mike Ryan Ryan Ryan Ryan
6th Place Ben Mike Devon Ashley Ashley Ben
5th Place Mike Mike Mike Mike Mike
4th Place Devon Ben Devon Ryan Ryan
3rd Place Chrissy Chrissy Ryan Chrissy Chrissy
2nd Place Ryan Ryan Chrissy Devon Ben
Winner Ben Devon Ben Ben Devon
Score

Bonus polls

Will the first vote in the final tribal council result in a tie?

  • No (61% Votes)
  • Yes (39% Votes)

Total Voters: 83

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Will Chrissy's expired idol affect the outcome of fifth place?

  • No (75% Votes)
  • Yes (25% Votes)

Total Voters: 83

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Will JP speak at all at final tribal council?

  • No (55% Votes)
  • Yes (45% Votes)

Total Voters: 84

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How many former Survivors not on this cast will Probst talk to at the reunion?

  • 2-4 (49% Votes)
  • 1 (27% Votes)
  • 5 or more (13% Votes)
  • 0 (11% Votes)

Total Voters: 83

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Will Andy yell during this week's podcast?

  • Yes (94% Votes)
  • No (6% Votes)

Total Voters: 81

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Andy
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Andy

Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
Andy
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  • Well I got some good news for everybody today. Edgic has said that Chrissy is the favorite to win the season. Because of this I saying that the one person that edgic has said won’t win will win. So congratulations Dr. Mike on winning this season.

    • I thought it was established that Edgic has determined that every player left is winning?

      • I just putting it out there in hopes that it puts Andy in an annoyed mood.

    • Purplerockmatt

      oh man please confirm that Edgic is predicting Chrissy i need to get my grave-dancing shoes ready

  • I was hoping “Hell yes” would be an answer to the last question.

    Anyway I’ve had this feeling for a while now based on discussion of this finale… but I think Mike is somehow going to win this. In the season of big moves wannabes, Mike is the king. If this is in fact the season of the FTC tie then I think Mike and Ben tie and Chrissy’s tie breaking vote goes to Mike.

    5. Devon 4. Ryan 3. Chrissy 2. Ben 1. Mike

    • StormofCuteness

      Our predictions, just like our pick 4 teams, are very similar. Just a reversed 2 and 1.

      • Yeah I could see the 2 and 1 reversing, but only if it’s not a tie. I just don’t see Chrissy voting Ben over Mike in a tie breaker situation. She’d be our first ever bitter non-jury vote.

        Sadly my hopes of doing well in my first ever Survivor draft were dashed fairly early on. My team was self’d when Chrissy and Ryan voted Roark out. I should have trusted my instincts when she was barely speaking during the first episode…

        • StormofCuteness

          Yeah, I got Roark’d as well, but at least I switched Patrick for Ben.

          • What hurts is that I almost tried to swap Roark for Ben after episode 1…

          • StormofCuteness

            Ouch!

  • Blurry Denzel

    I predict that Devon will not only win the season but will beat Ben in FTC. While Ben will have the whole biggest threat making it to FTC narrative working for him, he will not be able to sell it in front of the new format jury as well as Devon. Devon will brilliantly explain his game, the ideas he came up with and the relationships he made. Devon has been the best player in a frustrating but not awful season. He will take it home.

    • purplerockandy

      Devon did warn Ben that he should’ve taken him out.

    • Lucky Saabola

      I listened to Dom and Colin and they had an excruciating conspiracy theory about how the final four fire making challenge is a producer plot to keep Ben in the game. Since the fire-making was not announced during pre-season and none of the contestants seems to know about it at this point in the game, it could be a “Big Brother Twist” put into play just to save the season’s most rootable character. Then… the jury sees this twist as unfair and really feels that it is ethically questionable. The jury goes on to vote Devon to win over Ben. It’s a little too cute, but given the way Ben has seemingly prevailed against all the odds this season (with possible production help), it would be delicious to see the jury seize control of the result and award the win to anyone besides Ben.

      • Alycia Swift

        Well if it was put in to save a “rootable” character, it should have been put in GC for Cirie as this season has no “rootable” characters.

        This is the first season I feel is a genuine chore to watch although I do like posting and listening to the podcast (and meeting my fellow PRPers in the NYC/NJ area). I have not been watching on time. In fact, I watched last week’s episode Sunday night, the week before Tuesday, and the week before that on the following Wednesday but did not watch that Wednesday night’s episode.

      • sharculese

        Excruciating conspiracy theories are Colin Stone’s specialty. Remember how the MvGX finale was the beginning of Michaela’s winner’s edit for Game Changers?

        • Oh, I do. I enjoyed rubbing that one in.

  • Blurry Denzel

    Blurry Denzel power rankings are pretty pointless at this stage of the game so instead I’ll rank who I most want to win.

    1. Devon
    2. Ben
    3. Chrissy
    4. Ryan
    5. Mike

    Mike is a nice guy but his chaotic play and constant failings is too much especially since I feel his win would lead to people rewriting history about his skills. I can’t have the idea that Mike isn’t a lowest tier winner as a thing.

    • Other Scott

      I’m not willing to admit that it’s more likely people will be like “MIKE AMAZING PLAYER” than “Maybe you don’t ACTUALLY have to be good to win”. But sadly you’re probably right.

      But a man can hope.

      • Alkanarra

        If you pagong the opposing alliance right at the merge but let one of their members slip into the finals, they better damn well be the most unlikable goat in the world, otherwise you kinda deserve to lose. It’s not even a matter of what they did right, it’s a matter of what you did wrong, which is essentially the story of every player this season. It would be the conclusion they deserve.

        • Other Scott

          Agreed

      • the sky is falling

        I relate to Mike because I believe I would play the game as incompetently as he did. Playing idols incorrectly, trying and failing to make big moves, but ultimately, vaguely likeable and scraping by against all odds.

        I will never argue that he’s a great player, but I’d find his win humorous.

        (Disclaimer: the only winner I have ever guessed correctly pre-finale is Tony)

    • Super duper fan

      Mike would absolutely be below Bob in the winners’ rankings, which I wasn’t expecting to happen EVER.

      • the sky is falling

        So, this season is worse than Gabon? Most here seem to really hate Gabon

  • Fijian Banded Iguana

    My predictions are no doubt wrong, but they are mine. I’m sure in my heart of hearts that Mike goes out at fifth, and Chrissy is a lock for third. Ryan goes out at fourth because there’s no way he can light a fire. Ben and Devon somehow tie for first—I’ve tried and failed to work out a way to this happening, but it’s what I’d like to happen, so it will, dammit. Chrissy votes for Devon out of pure spite.

  • Maritimer

    I’m saying Mike in fifth because whatever, Ben loses the fire challenge to Devon after Chrissy wins immunity and protects Ryan, Ryan is the 0 vote finalist, Chrissy gets JP, and Devon sweeps the rest. I just pray that the nightmare final 3 of Ryan-Chrissy-Mike doesn’t come to pass.

    Chrissy’s fake idol’s only effect is someone gets a super cocky confessional about how they aren’t going home that night because of it, then they do, thus tipping us off on the 5th place boot

    Also, I would totally be okay if Probst just brought the HvV or Cambodia cast up on stage and talked to them for an hour instead of a reunion with this lot.

  • Diego Armando

    The last prediction should be 100 percent.

    Assuming Mike goes at 5. Everyone should take Ryan if they win the immunity challenge. Chrissy has a better shot of beating Devon/Ben and is already drawing dead. Ryan would likely be eliminated and if he won the challenge, he would have an actual resume move, so it is best to keep him neutered.

  • Blurry Denzel

    Completely off topic: So originally I was going to wait until my episode airs* but I’ll just tell the story of how I got onto Cash Cab now.

    For those unfamiliar, Cash Cab is a game show where passengers are picked up in a taxi and answer general knowledge trivia questions for money. The goal is to get to your destination without getting three questions wrong and you’ll win money. If you get three strikes, you get kicked out on the spot, no matter how far from your destination.

    Anyway, on a random Tuesday night, the fellow members of my Trust Cluster and I were doing bar trivia. We get approached by a woman saying she’s a producer for a new show called Scavengers and is looking for contestants. She explains that Scavengers is a show where people go on a people go on a scavenger hunt around NY and try to finish as quick as possible. It’s like a mini Amazing Race. We are immediately interested. She asks us a few trivia questions and we nail it. Then she tells us that they’ll set up a Skype interview between us and one of the producers of the show. We nail that too. We get cast and on June 5th we were set to play Scavengers.

    We arrive, wearing all black for the other team’s funeral, at the designated meeting spot and were informed that there was a delay in production so it will be an hour. So naturally we walk across the street to a bar and start drinking. An hour later we’re with our handler and a producer. They explain to use that a cab will take us to the filming location and we will get started. They waved down a cab and hand us money (we ended up keeping that 20). Once in the cab, lights go off, Ben Bailey turns around and informs us that we are on a Cash Cab. We’re legit surprised by this. They cut filming and the producer tells us Scavengers is not a real thing. We then spend the better part of an hour driving around the city whole answering questions. It was such a great experience

    *We were recently informed that our episode did not make the final cut.

    • Blurry Denzel

      Video that does currently exist as this Facebook Live clip.

      https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10155510867673586&id=6002238585

      • That’s awesome! For those of us without Facebook, spoil it and tell us how you did.

        • Blurry Denzel

          The Facebook video doesn’t spoil much, it’s just video proof that I was on the show. As for how we did, let’s just say that I know first hand that the cash they hand you at the end of trip is fake and they send you a check.

    • purplerockandy

      That’s so awesome dude. Sorry you won’t be on TV tho.

    • StormofCuteness

      That is so cool! It sucks it won’t air though. You were probably too good…or there was some stupid technical error (happened to me).

      • Blurry Denzel

        I appreciate the comment but I doubt I was too good, though I did think we did very well making entertaining TV. I think the format of the season, which has celebs ride along with some contestants, put us as a disadvantage. Celebs are pretty much a guarantee that you’ll get aired. We didn’t have one ride with us.

        • StormofCuteness

          I have no doubt that you were all super entertaining, and that makes it even worse we can’t see it!

      • purplerockandy

        Were you on Cash Cab too?

        • StormofCuteness

          I was on Vh1’s Rumor Has It in the early 90s, and my episode never aired because of a technical glitch. I came in 2nd out of 4, but I got asked out by two other contestants so, totally worth it. *still mad that the last round was about the Yankees*

  • Mike Hirsch

    5. Mike
    4. Ryan
    3. Chrissy
    2. Devon
    1. Ben

    Everyone knows that Chrissy will take Ryan to the end when she wins immunity at Final Four, but what my theory presupposes is…what if she didn’t?

    • Purplerockmatt

      that is my theory!

      • Mike Hirsch

        After thinking it over for a few more minutes, if I’m Chrissy, at final five I am probably thinking, “As a student of the game, I know that you don’t want to send someone to the jury who can poison the others against you. Ben would be that poison. I quite clearly played a fantastic game, and I can’t have it sabotaged by putting Ben on the jury to tell everyone that I didn’t play a fantastic game. And while my social game was incredible, and I don’t think Dilly or Joike or any of the others would listen to Ben, it would behoove my game to put Ryan on the jury now.”
        She still wouldn’t win, but Ryan going out at 5 would be her best result. Provided that it was 3-2 and she votes with him, he’s a locked in vote for her.

    • Maritimer

      Its kind of an interesting spot for Devon. Is he better off to win immunity and garuntee himself FTC but risk Ben being there too, or to let Chrissy win immunity and let him be the one who faces Ben [not to say a) Chrissy wouldn’t beat him straight up or b) Chrissy couldn’t beat Ben at fire, but I think its less likely than Devon]. I think this was the basis of the reddit thread someone (Taako?) linked to last week arguing Devon should give up immunity if he wins it

      • Taako From Teevhii

        I was about to relink it, but I forgot that the OP took it down. I still think that if Devon wins F4 Immunity, he shouldn’t give it up. That particular immunity is worth ~$90k.

        • Maritimer

          Yeah I agree with you and @disqus_3Sm0bOf1sj:disqus that in this case he’s got to just get himself to FTC then rely on his own ability to win jury votes. I do wonder if there is ever a potential situation where its best to put yourself in the line of fire though because you absolutely can’t get to FTC with the other person

        • sharculese

          O/T: are we not doing TAZ relisten this week?

          • Taako From Teevhii

            Fuck. I totally didn’t listen this week and forgot to post a comment. But yeah, start a thread. I know generally what happened, so there should be a discussion before the two week break.

      • Blurry Denzel

        As much as I want the give up immunity thing to be true, Devon needs to take the spot in FTC if he gets it.

        • Mike Hirsch

          Yeah, if Devon gave up immunity, that would just make him as dumb as everyone else this season.

          • Blurry Denzel

            It’s such a dumb and super risky move but part of me loves the idea that Devon has decided that he can’t beat Ben and he needs to be the one who takes him down. It’s such an action movie hero move of doing the over the top move to look like a badass.

          • It’s basically Ozzy intentionally going to Redemption Island, but done by a cooler, less eyeroll-worthy person.

          • Mike Hirsch

            Nothing would suit this season better than if that happened, and it was awesome, and then the jury doesn’t care at all and votes for Ryan or Chrissy.

      • Alycia Swift

        We’ve seen no evidence that either Devon or Chrissy couldn’t beat Ben at a firemaking challenge. We’ve seen Ben make a fire but that’s it.

        • Maritimer

          We’ve seen some extratextual stuff that Chrissy/Ryan don’t do much around camp, which presumably includes not working on the fire, but that doesn’t mean they can’t. We’ve nothing on Devon either way. I agree that I don’t think there’s strong evidence either way (and I think there’s a bit of random luck to a fire challenge anyway) that its really worth the risk for Devon

          • Alycia Swift

            I’ve only seen the Ryan doesn’t do much stuff. Nothing about Chrissy but maybe I’ve missed it.

          • Maritimer

            I thought I saw some about them as a collective in exits, but I could be misremembering and can’t be bothered to check

    • Blurry Denzel

      I see it in a way where she feels like Ryan and her have similar stories and they might favor him over her or that Ryan is a jury vote for her. I don’t think that’s her worst way to go about things, though it probably doesn’t matter what she did.

  • Blurry Denzel

    I can see everyone besides Andy voting yes on the last prediction. Andy sets himself up to be right and prove everyone wrong. He will fail the first time he needs to refute a point that Chrissy made at the reunion defending her game.

    • Alycia Swift

      This is a great prediction!

  • the sky is falling

    Here’s my path to a Mike victory.
    1. Ryan wins immunity, everyone votes Ben.
    2. Mike beats Devon in fire challenge.
    3. Ryan/Mike tie in FTC.
    4. Rock draw to determine the winner, Mike wins, because why shouldn’t blind luck determine the winner of this season.

    • Saturday Night Palsy

      If there is a tie, the winner is determined by the third person. Chrissy would choose Ryan as the winner.

      • the sky is falling

        That’s dumb. They should have to draw the purple rock to win, dangit!

        • purplerockandy

          The purple rock wants no affiliation with this season.

          • the sky is falling

            The producers are onto you guys anyway. They switched to white and black rocks a while back.

          • purplerockandy

            They switched the season we started this podcast.

          • If they switched to drawing a purple rock to determine the winner of this season, I would consider it a personal attack.

          • Blurry Denzel

            Which would make you like them more from what I gather with the way you guys react to attacks.

  • Okay to be fair to these people, I can say having listened to some of last season’s podcasts I can confirm that I am more excited by this season’s finale than last year. All of the people here have more personalities than last year final five.

  • UseYourCommonSense

    Ryan goes home at F5.
    Ben doesn’t win immunity, production/Jeff freak out and instate this “new rule” fire-making BS at the F4. Ben beats Devon at fire.
    Chrissie, Mike, Ben F3- the jury is split between Mike and Ben because the twist saved Ben from going home at F4.
    Ben wins.

    Either way I am confident Ben or Mike is winning this season. Jeff is jizzing himself over the finale, no way would he be this excited for a boring ass Dullvon win or a Chrissy (older woman ew!) win. Ryan has no chance.

    Devon is overrated, he is not as respected by the contestants in the game as he is by the fans. Ashley said she could beat him in a Final because he is naive and sucks at speaking in front of the jury. Whether that is true or not, no one would ever say that about a winner. So many jurors said they wanted him in the F3, he is not this humongous threat that the fans think he is.

    Jeff is head over heels for Ben and we all know he loves the nerdy comeuppance stories like Mike’s.

    • sharculese

      ” Ashley said she could beat him in a Final because he is naive and sucks at speaking in front of the jury. ”

      Counterpoint: Kristie Bennett happened.

  • sharculese

    @Taako_From_Teevhii:disqus TAZ Talk:

    Yeah, so this is part of why I’m less jazzed about PTtM than some of the other chapters – the denoument is just one long fight sequence that I kind of zone out of. Yes, it has Garryl, and Garryl is awesome, but other than that it’s just a series of scenes where Griffin introduces ridiculous cars and then the boys fight them.

    Talking points for this week:
    -Garryl, the Paul of horses
    -The boys fight a bunch of cars
    – Spoiler so mild I’m not using tags: I don’t think anyone intended for most of the love stories in this adventure to be queer, but it’s interesting how that kind of just happened
    – Question for first time listeners: who is the Red Robe and what does he want?

    • sharculese

      In other Griffin podcasting:

      – I didn’t realize Rachel was half Jewish until the latest episode of Wonderful!. As someone who came from a family where we did Christmas and Hannukah, I spent that whole segment going “shit yeah, I know exactly what you’re talking about.”

      – In the latest episode of MBMBaM, when Griffin started talked about the problem with 20-Slate-clean being that it made it sound like we were wiping the slate clean for all the dudes who did gross stuff, and we’re forgiving and forgetting, I suddenly thought “oh right, like 3 months before the deluge hit you got a personal taste of this (although not as personal as any of Nick’s targets) and you’ve made it clear you’re not forgiving or forgetting.”

      • Taako From Teevhii

        I haven’t listened to the newest MBMBaM yet, but I liked this from Reddit: 20-Fate-teen: Shape Your Destiny.

        Was not a fan of mate, bate, or date, followed by “teen”

        • sharculese

          Justin comes up with the same one I did, so I’m happy, but god, anyone who thought 20-bate-teen was a good idea is just…

  • Other Scott

    So I’m cheering for a Dr. Mike win and I want him to beat Devon in FTC. Why? Because this season is beyond saving and probably can’t get anywhere better than a mediocre-bad season anyways. So now my hopes for this season is that it puts an end to people overrating winners just because they won.

    I want the jury to do what it has done almost every vote where this has been possible and vote for the underdog – just so it can be proven once and for all that Michele Fitzgerald did not win because of some astounding social game we didn’t see, but because she was the underdog – and juries hate seeing the prevailing alliance win after beating them.

    Basically I want Mike to win and beat someone like Devon so I can stop hearing about Michele Fitzgerald’s social game. This is the main thing on my wishlist.

    • purplerockandy

      LOL at thinking people won’t just readjust their opinions of Mike to make him better than he was.

      • Other Scott

        I’m always an optimist Andy

    • sharculese

      I don’t find this argument completely persuasive, but I find it very interesting and it’s worth thinking about.

      The reason that I don’t find it persuasive is that, yes, I do watch Survivor for narrative, not just for gameplay, and Penis Doctor Mike winning after getting clowned on over and over again would be the “The Mother dies and Ted ends up with Robin after all” of Survivor finales.

      • Other Scott

        See I’m coming from the angle that there’s nothing that can happen in the finale that can make this season “good” – so why not go for the result that makes me the happiest in terms of revealing how Survivor juries work!

        • sharculese

          I mean, you know me man, I loudly and proudly beat the drum of “you win Final Tribal by being the person people are most okay with losing to.” I just don’t think Penis Doctor Mike winning is going to convince anyone who isn’t already on board with that.

      • Blurry Denzel

        Years later and the HIMYM finale still pisses me off. All of season 9 pisses me off besides “How Your Mother Met Me.”

        • Purple Rock Emma

          That episode being so good really underscores what an utter disappointment the finale was.

          • Blurry Denzel

            Of the mistakes they made, I thought the casting of the mother would be it. It was too much to live up to and yet Cristin Milioti knocked it out the park. They had to find some other way to fuck it up.

        • sharculese

          I don’t think Mike is winning, but, if he somehow does, I’m expanding that comment into a barnstormer of a rant.

  • Assistant Dragon Slayer

    5. Ben finds an idol (ugh), Devon wins immunity. Mike talks Ben and Devon into breaking up the “power couple” by getting rid of Ryan (they all want to take Chrissy to the end of course). Chrissy catches wind of this, but does nothing because she knows she needs Ryan to stan for her at Ponderosa and vote for her at FTC. Ryan goes home.

    4. The action-movie hero scenario comes true. Devon wins immunity again but gives it up to Mike to prevent Ben from winning fire-making. It backfires, sending Devon to the jury.

    3. Time for Ben’s coronation. But wait! Somebody (Joe? Chrissy?) says something that gets under his skin and he snaps. He goes off on this person, at first just making the jury uncomfortable but eventually saying something so over the line/crazy that he loses the six votes he had going into FTC (JP and Ryan were voting Chrissy). Ben is a zero-vote finalist.

    2. Lauren and Ashley switch their votes to Chrissy. The three Healers plus Devon switch their votes to Mike. It’s a 4-4 tie. Ben, who just torched his own chances, gets to single-handedly decide the winner. Spoiler: he does not vote for Chrissy.

    1. The winner of Survivor: Tire Fire Island is Dr. Mike.

    • Other Scott

      I take back what I said about there being no possible sequence of events that would happen in the finale that make this season good.

  • sharculese

    So I’m just gonna go off on the Chrissy edgic thing:

    So obviously we all know that the show is edited to make us root for certain players and against others, and sometimes it’s too heavy-handed about it. We all knew Mike was winning from like episode 5 of Worlds Apart because the show went out of its way to make him likable no matter how much he fucked up.

    Edgic is supposed to be a logical thing, right? It’s supposed to have rules. Okay, so the rules suggest that Michele being given a lot of key confessionals even though she was a nonentity and had nothing to say suggested that she was winning. My big problem with the Michele Truthers was that they were obnoxious about trying to shut down discussion of the season as it was playing out, but there was always that sinking feeling that they might be right.

    I don’t have that feeling here.

    But moreover, the whole point of Michele Truthering was that this blandly pleasant but unimportant person was overly featured. To say that the same rules predict a win by a person who has been shown blowing a dominant position, trashing the other players in confessionals, and openly feuding at camp, is to admit that your system has no logic to it, that you’re just playing Calvinball. Edgic is the intelligent design of Survivor internet.

    • Purplerockmatt

      also look at their edgic charts. They are basically rating Ryan and Chrissy the same each week only they have Chrissy ahead of him always in their charts. Why? Who the fuck knows

      • sharculese

        Also Chrissy just magically shows up because Survivor Goddess Lauren turned out to be a dud.

        Also I was gonna give a shoutout to your brilliant takedown of edgic and then left it out for concision. So for anyone who hasn’t read it: http://www.purplerockpodcast.com/the-problem-with-edgic/

        • Purplerockmatt

          It is the proudest I have been of something that turns out to be wrong

          • sharculese

            Like I said in my first comment, there was always a sinking suspicion that the Michele Truthers were on to something. That’s part of what made it so irritating.

    • Maritimer

      So, I actually find Edgic a somewhat interesting/useful tool, but more in the way Redmond uses it, to assess story lines and keep general track of visibility and positive/negative content across episodes (fully understanding its subjectivity). It when its used as a winner predicting tool that I feel the whole “logic” thing falls apart. With Michele, it was clear they were picking up on something and we all kind of felt it, as much as we resisted. But otherwise, Edgic really only seems to pick up on the winners everyone else picks out too (Sarah, Mike, etc). [I know I’m rehashing Matt here a bit].

      Edgic also has a weird fascination with things that don’t matter. There was a lot of talk early on about Alan failing to open a coconut and what that meant. Really, it was just a funny scene, but Edgic will tell you it meant Alan will lose and they will say they were right. Most of Edgic is ruling people out because of editing “cues” and they will always argue they were right because in any given season of Survivor 15-19 people lose so they will be right a vast majority of the time about this.

      I think part of the reason its a mess this season is that nobody is being painted as a good guy or a bad guy really. Mostly because they are all bland, inoffensive, and nobody is more than average at Survivor and most are actively bad which affects the storytelling. How the fuck Edgic settled on Chrissy, the only person with an unambiguously negative edit this season baffles me. Part of the alleged logic is positive v negative. As you say, they’re basically making shit up.

      • Diego Armando

        I remember people getting into arguements with people last season who believed Brad was doomed because Sierra once called him stupid I a throwaway confessional, but completely ignored every bird and “I will kill you” Starr Debbie gave to Sarah, because (they had already made their decisions). Not everything has meaning.

        • Maritimer

          Right. Its a TV show. Survivor will show what’s good TV. They’re feeding a narrative, but they also want to make good TV (see Vlachos, Tony)

      • sharculese

        Watching actively and paying attention to who gets screen time, is looking bad or good, and is given credit for things is fine, and I assume what most of us are doing. If you want to call that edgic, sure.

        But yeah, it’s the part where they start thinking they have this brilliant system for scrying the winner where it starts to be ludicrous.

        • Roswulf

          I think there are two steps to Edgic. One is converting general reactions into the pretty chart with all the acronyms. That’s subjective of course, but is an interesting way to summarize lots of information in a readable way. And it’s something I do find useful- I certainly don’t recall how Devon was being treated in episodes 2-5 without a handy chart.

          The second step is converting that chart into IRONCLAD CERTAINTY ABOUT THE WINNER. That’s nonsense. The editors want to tell somewhat different stories each season, so there cannot be a single formula for converting storytelling rhythms into predictions.

          • Max_Jets

            And I’ve seen edgic-ers say that they like when it’s not easy to predict. But I guess this weird pile on is gonna happen constantly.

      • Mike Hirsch

        I’m going to experience a little bit of schadenfreude tonight when Chrissy loses. It may almost make this season slightly worth it. Maybe not.

        • Purplerockmatt

          I am going to experience a LOT of schadenfreude tonight when Chrissy loses

        • Maritimer

          Andy gloating on the podcast might make the season worth it at least

      • Lira2012

        Ok, let’s say that Ben is somehow voted out at #5 (no idol!). Then I would expect Chrissy to approach Ryan with a plan to vote out Devon:”He will beat you at FTC. We need to take him out.” I think that Chrissy would try to kill Devon before Mike; she probably sees Mike as a useful goat (dumb Chrissy). So, then, Devon, sadly, goes. Then FTC is Chrissy, Mike, and Ryan. And Mike wins. And I’m more than fine with that. n.b.This mini-analysis does not allow for Devon winning immunity at #4, nor does it take the fire challenge into account.

  • Marlin M.

    Had to pick Ben winning because I don’t see anyone else winning. Ugh

  • StormofCuteness

    I went Devon, Ryan, Chrissy, Mike, Ben. I am basing this on how much personal info we got in the edit, and the fact that I picked Ben to win after the 1st episode. I’d like to actually be right about something on PRP.

    • Violina23

      Hold your head up high no matter what: the theme of the season on PRP is “Survivor: You tried”

      • StormofCuteness

        Hahaha, so true.

      • Alycia Swift

        I thought was the theme every season. We are too lazy to find another.

        • Violina23

          The other theme of PRP: When in doubt, put in zero effort.

  • Violina23

    My guess is:

    Mike, Ryan, Chrissy, Ben, Devin

    I can see there being a split between Ben/Devin. Ryan has no case, Mike comes across as crazy, and nobody likes Chrissy.

  • sharculese

    The AV Club’s WoT headline: “Survivor hands off another million dollars to some Machiavellian manipulator”

    Because Richard Hatch is literally the only person to ever win Survivor.

    • Diego Armando

      I laughed when I saw that. These players do not deserve that title.

  • SurvivorWerewolf(JTHelland)

    Hate to say this but I’m kinda with Mark except for the random stuff about nothingness

  • Super duper fan

    Sit back everyone, because I’m gonna tell you all the final stretch of the long-awaited Chrissy victory.

    It’s Final 5. Chrissy just won her third Immunity. It seems as just a simple Ben vote out, right? Well, you’d be mistaken. Chrissy, who we all know is a STUDENT Of The Game, remembers what David pulled off in MvGX, and plants a fake idol for Ben to take, which she was sitting on for a long time for THIS particular moment. Ben who stopped looking for a real idol, plays the fake one, and, as according to Chrissy’s evil plan, gloriously embarasses himself. He then immediately pieces all of the things together, and looks upon The Chrissy Hofbeck of Survivor: Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers’s Fame, as she gives him the biggest “What are you gonna do about it, bitch?” look ever seen on the face of the planet. He knew at that moment, that he not only lost the battle, but also the war, and he couldn’t do nothing about it except walk away to Ponderosa with his head down.

    It’s Final 4. Probst announces the twist which puts a wrench into everyone’s game. I’m sorry, I’ve miswritten, ALMOST everyone’s game. Because as we would expect a Student Of The Game to do, Chrissy knew EXACTLY what she had to do. She then goes on to throw the Immunity Challenge, giving Devon the win. Why? Because why sweat over something she knew was gonna get either way? Chrissy knew that after just saying the phrases “Mike is a threat”, and “Big Movez”, Devon would per her wish give her a necklace and volunteer to d-d-d-d-d-duel Mike in a Fire Making Challenge, showing EVERYONE who the ruler of the island was. Which it happened, as we ALL could’ve easily suspected. And after jedi-minding Mike to light up Devon’s fire, Chrissy walks back to camp knowing it’s just a matter of time before she gets crowned as a winner.

    It’s Final Tribal Council. The Queen and the Minions are sitting before the jury. The jurors at first are a bit aversed towards Chrissy, but she being amused by this ridiculousness , began to bitch-slap them back to their senses, figuratively AND literally. She then proceeds to answer all the answers with such ease, that Todd, Kristie, JT, and Sophie are left SHOOK, seeing how elegantly Chrissy explains her moves, strategy, and how she manipulated all of them with her teeth and boobs. The minions left speechless, the jury had no other option but to vote for the rightful winner to win.

    It’s a reunion. Probst reveals the votes. It’s 4-4-0. Chrissy and Devon tied. The audience and the jury are all shocked. “How could’ve this happened?” everyone asked. I’m sorry, I’ve miswritten, ALMOST everyonce asked. Chrissy knew even at FTC that this would happen. The votes were tampered with. She knew that with greatness come people who are jealous of it, because they could only WISH to be half of a legend. It was only a guess, but she suspected that certain canadian Survivor fan was behind it, who wanted to be at least one time correct about something in this show, but he made a mistake to not recognize the greatness of Chrissy, and had to resort to radical means. He at first planned to give all votes to Devon, but knowing that everyone would’ve suspected something after that FTC was aired, he just replaced half of the votes to Devon, turning this situation from impossible, to somewhat impossible.

    Probst then said “Ryan now is gonna make the biggest move possible, and choose who’s gonna win this season of Survivor. I bet some of you are saying just now “Who? There wasn’t anyone named Ryan in the finale” I don’t blame you at all. You see, he wasn’t given a single word in the finale. And Ryan didn’t like that. Which the evil canadian knew. He was hoping that desperate Ryan, wanting to finally come out of Chrissy’s shadow, would make the last possible big move of the season and vote for Devon. And he kinda liked Devon, so he wouldn’t be that against giving him the money. But all that effort was for naught. Chrissy just smirked, looked at Ryan and said “We all know who you are going to give the win”. And just like that, Ryan fell on his face, and began apologizing for even THINKING that he would ever give someone else the money, and cast his final vote for Chrissy. Pretending to show shock about his vote, she brougt out her inner pegeant queen, and began thanking her fans, and all the fellow contestants for supporting her way to the win. The she was given all the questions at the reunion.

    Chrissy Hofbeck, we’re forever grateful for what you’ve brought to the game. We are not worthy of the joy you bring us.

    • Super duper fan

      And my final PR’s are:
      1.Devon (0)
      2.Chrissy (+1)
      3.Ben (-1)
      4.Mike (+1)
      5.Ryan (-1)

    • Mike Hirsch

      The only flaw I see in your plan is that you didn’t account for there being some point where Chrissy targets herself as the only woman left to vote for.

      • Assistant Dragon Slayer

        There aren’t enough people left in the game for an HvV Tyson scenario.

        • Super duper fan

          Chrissy is a student of the game. She’d find a way.

        • Maritimer

          Play an idol one someone else who receives all the votes and that someone else votes for you, then ta-da!

          • Blurry Denzel

            Wouldn’t that just cause a tie? The person who plays an idol for someone else can’t vote for themselves and why would they vote for the person they just played an idol for?

          • Maritimer

            Oh yeah, its really not a thing, I’m just running with the ridiculous scenarios here from sdf and Mike and making it possible

      • the sky is falling

        “I’m clearly a threat, I’ve got to go before the final four.”

  • Diego Armando

    I chose:

    5. Mike
    4. Ben
    3. Chrissy
    2. Ryan
    1. Devon

  • I’m starting to reel myself back in a bit in terms of the idols/advantages this season. Really, the possibility of someone idol-ing themself to a Final 4 has always been a possibility. This SHOULD be exciting.

    I think I’m still just hurting over Advantagegeddon. In terms of advantages they seem to have done a good job this season. If anything the only advantage that I think really interfered with the story of the season was the Episode 1 superidol, in that it cemented Ryan and Chrissy as close allies when they may not necessarily have gotten together otherwise.

    However I reserve the right to rant if this Finale advantage is bad.

  • corndogshuffle

    I’m going all in – this season is such a mess that I’m predicting a Mike win. If hee is there with Chrissy and Ryan, I could easily see this happening.

    I’m sure what we will really see is Ben going Mike Holloway and winning it all, but I think Mike is the winner this season truly deserves.

  • Marlin M.

    So Jeff just posted a photo of the seats where the finalist are going to be sitting, and 1 torch is behind each seat and I’m pretty sure its 2 heroes and 1 hustler

  • Damn Emma