Survivor Heroes vs Healers vs Hustlers Week Five Predictions

Here’s some predictions that most of us made without having seen the supposed spoilerific preview that’s been making the rounds. If you have seen it, you can still predict, but hide your reasoning for your pics accordingly. And those desperately wanting to avoid any possible spoilers, proceed with caution. (It is my understanding that the preview does not spoil who goes, FWIW).

Staff Predictions

Andy

At the Blue beach, I think Devon will be willing to go to rocks to fight against Joe and Desi, because there’s nothing saying that they’ll keep going after Ashley now that there’s one less Hero on their beach. However, I don’t think Ashley will. She’ll flip to get Devon out and survive another day.

At Red, there’s no reason for the former Healers to surrender their advantage should they go to tribal for the first time. So then it’ll come down to Ben or Lauren. It probably should be Ben, but I’m guessing Lauren will have made herself more of an outsider than has Ben, especially with her otherwise savvy move to spread dissension last week with Dr Mike. Thus Lauren will be the target.

At Yellow, it will look like it should be Heroes vs Hustlers. But the Chrissy/Ryan idol dynamic changes that, making that otherwise meaningless advantage VERY meaningful. As does the fact that there is currently six former Healers and only four each of the other two former tribes. They gotta get one of those out soon lest they have a majority at the merge. Roark is their only option to do so. The minute she gets two confessionals in an episode, it’s a done deal.

John

On the blue tribe, I think Desi decides that she’s fine with flipping on Joe now, and he has outlived his usefulness. She’d been ready to target him when she was with the Healers, and now that his idol is gone it’s safer to take a shot at him.

On the red tribe, it’s time for Lauren to become a robbed goddess. At least we’ll always have that time she talked about playing outfield and hating redheads, though- a time that I will forget within a month of this season ending.

At the yellow tribe, there’s a seemingly logical voting bloc that doesn’t include Roark or JP. Roark, as a former member of that Healers tribe that has yet to lose a single person, is the far more appealing target. Also, it’s entirely possible that everyone forgets JP is even on their tribe.

Emma

Blue tribe: Normally a tribe going to tribal council would make their next moves easier to predict, but a potential dead lock makes it even harder. While going to rocks so early would normally be stupid, anybody who turns on their alliance-of-convenience partner right now just figures they’d be the next to go if their losing streak continues. Desi will probably pull the frustratingly not purple rock, and people will use these extenuating circumstances to insist the show is not racist or sexist and women of color going home early is an unfortunate coincidence. Of course, these people also will forget that the issue is the show reflects society.

Red tribe: While it’d be funny if everything blew up in Cole’s face, I’d like to pretend that Jessica is playing a long con, Natalie Anderson style, and will exact her revenge at a later date. Lauren has been an obvious boot choice for a while, but it feels even more obvious in this current configuration, despite the average age of the tribe being more favorable. Luckily for her and the internet at large, this group is unlikely to go to tribal thanks to puzzle master Mike.

Yellow tribe: Thanks to the Ryan-Chrissy bond over the idol, being the odd one out won’t pay off for Roark. I’m keeping this prediction short in honor of her air time.

Matt

For blue tribe I think this week is the end of the line for Desi. Why? I think that Devon and Ashley would go to rocks and either that stance will cause Joe to flip or the rock will land on Desi. Either way, I think last weeks discussion of Joe being bad for Desi will pay off this week

For red, I think Lauren is the obvious choice. I just can’t see Jessica, Mike and Cole getting rid of Ben. Though the closer we get to merge the likelier that becomes.

For yellow I’ll say … crap what’s her name? You know who I’m talking about, the one that we aren’t even sure actually exists? Rock? Bjork? Something like that. Anyway the show disappears her into the night.

Mark

Blue: Either this tribe goes to rocks or someone flips. I can’t see Joe or Devon going just yet. They have to reunite with their friends and foes on other tribes. So let’s say Desi. Should have fought more for that idol…

Red: What, did the challenge not have a puzzle for Mike to win? If they somehow have to have a date with Jeff, Ben could be in danger. But I think the Cole/Jessica feud builds, and she realizes she has to cut Cole loose early. Loose lips sink ‘ships, bro.

Yellow: I can see this tribe doing well in challenges again, but if not, Roark is probably the one to go. The Healers need to be dwindled, and the rest of this tribe seems too important to be blindsided.

 
Andy John Emma
Matt Mark Readers
First Out Katrina Chrissy Katrina Katrina Katrina Katrina
Second Out Simone Patrick Lauren Ali Lauren Lauren
Third Out Lauren Lauren Patrick Patrick Lauren Lauren
Fourth Out Joe Jessica Joe Joe Cole Joe
Blue Fifth Boot Devon Joe Desi Desi Desi
Red Fifth Boot Lauren Lauren Lauren Lauren Cole
Yellow Fifth Boot Roark Roark Roark Rock? Bjork? Roark
Score

 

Your Turn

Time for you all to consensus pick who will be the next boot.

If someone goes from the Blue tribe, who will it be?

  • Joe (51% Votes)
  • Desi (22% Votes)
  • Ashley (18% Votes)
  • Devon (9% Votes)

Total Voters: 67

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If someone goes from the Red tribe, who will it be?

  • Lauren (65% Votes)
  • Cole (20% Votes)
  • Ben (12% Votes)
  • Jessica (2% Votes)
  • Mike (2% Votes)

Total Voters: 66

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If someone goes from the Yellow tribe, who will it be?

  • Roark (65% Votes)
  • JP (32% Votes)
  • Ali (2% Votes)
  • Ryan (2% Votes)
  • Chrissy (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 65

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Andy
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Andy

Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
Andy
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146 thoughts on “Survivor Heroes vs Healers vs Hustlers Week Five Predictions

  1. I want to revisit the non-spoilery preview that came after last week’s broadcast (and it’s my understanding that this one is fair game, so I’m not using spoiler tags). What do we make of Chrissy telling JP that Roark wants an all-girl alliance?

    Is it true? Probably not, right? Is Chrissy trying to pull one over on JP? Or is she genuinely trying to get JP to vote for Roark? Why does JP need extra motivation to vote for Roark?

    1. I think it’s possible she did, if she felt she was a target and is trying it to save her own skin

      1. I told @disqus_3Sm0bOf1sj:disqus this but I feel like Chrissy will see Roark as a younger version of herself (physically weak but good at puzzles) and try to make Roark more of an appealing target.

          1. But that’s a fancy way of saying that she’s good at understanding how others are viewing the game, which is arguably the biggest advantage you can have in the post-merge.

        1. Chrissy’s desire to boot Katrina (even before the game started) has me wondering about her. If she does the same with Roark it’s a pattern. It’s like she needs to get every woman out who might want to take her place (in her mind). I’m wondering if that’s one of the reasons she was “one of the first successful women in her field,” maybe she threw all the other women she worked with under the bus…

          1. That would be an awful and unfortunate turn of events. Not the least because of how happy it would make Andy…

          2. Except if Chrissy votes out Roark won’t this force Andy to complement her? I almost look forward to hearing how he spins it should it happen. As it is though I have both of those ladies on my team so this would result in my first ever Fantasy League team getting self’d. For that reason I’m hoping Soko just doesn’t go to Tribal at all. I’m hoping for a Lauren boot, that way Andy can just queue up the material he had for what we though was going to be her boot a couple of weeks ago (see Andy, I’m saving you some time and effort here)

          3. Honestly, I don’t feel confident about who will go to tribal this week. My immediate reaction was that Yellow would go, cause their post-episode preview seemed like that, but I also realized that Chrissy has been featured so heavily, along with some strong nods to Ryan and Ali, it could simply be that we will keep close eyes on them even though they don’t go. So i’m not really sure.

          4. It’s a mistake to assume that I have a bad opinion of Roark, when the truth is that I have NO opinion of Roark. As no one should.

    2. I’m guessing Chrissy is not lying (would an actuary lie?) but that she’s not interested in a all-girl alliance. To complete the symmetry to a previous season, Roark will also tell Chrissy to stop eating all the clams in the ocean, leading to Roark getting voted out.

    3. In Roark’s bonus confessional, she mentioned hearing through the grapevine that JP was hesitant to vote for her, so maybe Chrissy is lying to JP to get him to go along with voting her out.

        1. Who even knows what’s going on in JP’s head, but you could be right. Maybe he has something against scrawny guys (or think’s Ryan is hurting them in challenges).

          1. I agree that Ali is more likely to be voted out, but JP doesn’t know about Chrissy’s connection to Ryan and might want to target Ryan instead.

        1. …not much longer would he be hers, baby.

          (I couldn’t leave you hanging like that. Sad that these kids didn’t get the reference amirite?)

    4. Maybe she wants to get JP to vote out Roark with no questions asked. Or maybe she wants to curb Ali’s power.

  2. Taking Lauren, Joe, and Roark for largely the reasons stated. No reason the Beauties on the red tribe fracture, Roark screams pre-merge boot with her invisibility and why not boot a Beauty if you’re that tribe.

    Joe is more a crapshoot. I actually picked Desi in the poll then changed my mind while typing the comments. There’s fascinating potential game theory on that tribe. I think the play is to let the 2-2 tie happen if you’re any of the 4 of them and see if you’ll be immune from the rock draw or not. I guess the votes land on Ashley and Joe, and Desi isn’t willing to go rocks to save Joe and flips. The big risk here is both non-vote receivers flipping, but even then, I would guess they come to a unanimous agreement rather than pulling rocks. There is no world in which the two should pull rocks, that’s a stupid risk to take here.

    1. Gotta agree, 2 going to rocks would be a poor use of game strategy. As you said, it’s much better to use drawing rocks as a way for force cooperation. The biggest problem would be, if you both play chicken too far, it could end in ruin.

      1. At least they have the unanimous agreement out though. Even agreeing to rock/paper/scissors to decide which of the tied people goes home is a better alternative than risking yourself by pulling rocks

        1. I agree, but in the era of #bigmoves, I could see a player thinking that going to rocks is a worthwhile risk, and I could see production hyping that to increase the chances of an early season rock draw.

          1. That’s true. Production might try to push it on them but everyone on that tribe seems savvy enough not to let production push them into a bad move

    2. Does Roark’s invisibility really mean she’s gone pre-merge? Or is it just a reflection of the fact that she has found no idols and still hasn’t gone to tribal? We similarly saw nothing of Cirie last season, and she finished F6. We also didn’t see a lot of Aubry, who went to nearly every pre-merge tribal and finished F5, so who knows. Point is, I think sometimes the edit is weird and doesn’t follow set rules.

      1. It doesn’t mean it, but I think it could be interpreted as a sign. We had a lot more Cirie than this in GC I’m pretty sure. It would be a logical edit if she’s gone this week as a routine boot. Also, there always seems to be a pre-season hyped player who gets an invisible edit/early boot and she’s my choice (I know that’s not a rule at all)

      2. Cirie did have a really strong premiere episode, but in general I agree. Roark could easily become a prominent player for a few episodes in the post merge, like Cambodia Ciera or Kaoh Rong Julia.

        1. Granted, the difference between a pre-merge boot and an early jury boot is small. But as long as Roark gets her fantasy points for making the merge, I’ll be happy.

  3. Lauren can’t get voted out until we have one challenge where the final section involves throwing balls at a target. She will either (a) hit every target on the first throw, single-handedly winning the challenge for her tribe, or (b) miss every target and refuse to tap out (like Patrick).

  4. I am going Desi, Lauren, and JP, because I’m not ready to say bye in the Champions league if Roark goes so soon.

  5. I have a suggestion. Can you consider putting the readers’ polls at the top of the article before your analyses? I always read your predictions, and then use your reasoning for my picks because I haven’t thought things through yet. The results might come up a bit more mixed if you make this change, which might be a little more fun to see. But maybe I’m the only one who thinks that, in which case, just pretend this comment is the Roark of comments.

    1. If we get more people requesting it, we’ll consider this. But I’ve got a work-around for you in the meantime: Instead of clicking on the link or the image to come to the post, click on the comments. That’ll take you directly to the comment section, and you can scroll up to vote without seeing our predictions first.

      1. I think in next week’s prediction poll, you should put a poll at the top asking readers if they prefer the polls be at the top.

          1. I was just at a condo owners meeting last night and the meeting started late because we had to wait until enough people showed up so we had a quorum.

  6. Yellow will be Roark. The Healers are intact, Ryan has ties to Chrissy and Ali and JP is the only person on that tribe that can lift things.

    Red will be Lauren. The Healers will likely stick together out of necessity. Cheerful Ben is likely more fun to be around than sullen Lauren and Lauren has actively tried to sow dissent in the Healers.

    Blue could be anyone. I will say that Desi draws the wrong rock.

  7. Happy viewing this weekend everybody! I have a stupid work meeting tomorrow night, so probably won’t be able to watch till late Thursday. Till then, i’ll be keeping my fingers crossed for on-all-my-teams-looks-totally-doomed-Roark.

  8. FYI Avoid Gordon Holmes’ power rankings column with Sophie. He also reveals what the spoiler is in the CBS preview (in the process of criticizing CBS for the spoiler. D’oh!)

  9. I’m mostly with the majority, but I really do think JP is in more danger than Roark. This is based completely on all of my teams having her and not giving a fig about him.

  10. Let’s revisit my off the cuff predictions from last week:
    -Two tribes with one person to Exile Island.
    -Based off of the conversation last week I say Ashley and JP end up on a different tribe than Alan and the two get to finally work together unencumbered.
    -Chrissy and Ben stay together, but Ryan and Devin get split up (Ryan will have Ali on his tribe though).
    -Knowledge of Joe’s idol is going to spread like wildfire, fun times ensue.

    Yikes, I completely bombed that one, that’s .5 out of 4 right (Ryan and Devin get split up, Ryan will have Ali on his tribe though)

    This week in off the cuff predictions:
    -Chrissy’s tale about Roark wanting an all female alliance is a fabrication to manipulate JP
    -Red tribe continues to dominate and wins both challenges again
    -Somebody on the red tribe finds an idol clue (God I hope it is either Jessica or Cole that would be hilarious)
    -Blue tribe to tribal council

  11. I really hope Desi decides to flip on Joe. She needs to realize that he won’t be helpful in the future, and will just as easily flip on her if he decides she is not helpful to him.

    1. Agreed. If Desi was to flip and forge a solid bond with Devon and Ashley, that would be an alliance that i’d enjoy watching. But i’m not sure Desi is interested in that, and i’m not sure how well Desi can build a relationship with Devon and Ashley. There certainly seems to be potential with it though, cause it isn’t like Ashley was close with Alan, and Devon may try to play it off like he would have voted with them. The alliances don’t have a lot of the hard barriers we are used to seeing between them, but the post-episode preview makes me think it isn’t likely things will smooth out after the tribal, if Devon and Ashley will soon be at rocks-or-die against Desi/Joe.

  12. Blurry Denzel predictions: Birthday edition.

    Today is my birthday (28) and a good gift would be for me to get the elimination I want, so bye to either JP, Joe or Cole.

    JP because we will lose nothing with him gone.

    Joe and Cole because I think Desi and Jessica can shine without them as allies and Desi or Jess tearing shit up sounds like a more satisfying prospect to me.

      1. Wow, there are a lot of folks younger than BD here! At least some early twenty-somethings. At 45 I’m not even the oldest (although I’m up there).

          1. If the PRP can afford to own a property with a lawn, that a real demonstration of the collective age around here.

      1. Holy shit, I never knew I shared a birthday with Kevin Kline. This is just the excuse I need to make “A Fish Called Wanda” a yearly tradition.

        1. I was at trivia this week and one of the answers was the Canadian rapper Kardinal Offishall. The trivia guy said that he had never heard of him and when the crowd laughed at him he said “Oh! I suppose you know all sorts of Canadian rappers?” at which point almost the entire room yelled “Drake!”

          1. …how can a Canadian trivia host not know either Drake or Kardinal Offishall? That makes me disappointed

          2. In his defense he knew who Drake was, but had forgotten about him being a Canadian rapper in the context of this situation.

            He continually says that anyone who watches Buffy, Harry Potter, or Lord of the Rings is a nerd and should be mocked for it. The room usually laughs at him.

          3. Since I’m pretty sure we live in the same city I think I know who you’re talking about. The guy who hosts pretty much ALL of the trivias and does that

          4. My Andrew is a comedian. He’s always talking about stories from his stand-up comedian days and trying to give away Yuk Yuk’s tickets.

            Wow, I always thought I was lucky to find other Canadians on Disqus, never thought I would find someone in the same province, let alone the same city.

          5. Yup, he’s the one who hosts the one I used to go to.

            Its a small world. It is kind of incredible that we have 4(?) Canadians around here and two of us are from the same city (though I’m a transplant, grew up in rural parts of the province, ended up here)

          6. I only work in Halifax. I live in … (remembers the importance of a secret identity) … a town 30 minutes away by car.

          7. Until winter, I’ll be getting around in the Harbour Hopper.

            (that reference is for @disqus_sjBnbSyo83:disqus, and possibly @fingstick:disqus)

          8. I remember years ago The Coast magazine was mad at the HH for some reason and told their readers to moon it if you saw it. Apparently a lot of people followed their advice, leading to some confused tourists.

            Synergy alert: as I click “Post” I’m looking out my window and can see the HH drive into the water!

          9. That certainly sounds like the Coast. I don’t hate it that much, just in the road rage when I get stuck behind it sense

          10. About 10 years ago I had to catch the bus home from work on Spring Garden Road, and in the summer the HH drove by and every time the tour person was at the exact same point of their speech: “And on our left is HMV, which stands for ‘His Masters Voice’.” I got so sick of hearing that.

          11. It’s funny when new people start working where I work and I get to see their reactions when the noon-cannon goes off. “What the hell was that?!?”

          12. Yes, but just Halifax. It also drives into the water and goes around the harbour.

            It’s also caused at least 2 accidents by hitting/driving over parked cats because it’s behemoth-sized. I can’t find the picture but years ago it drove right over the front of a parked car with an elderly couple sitting inside. Luckily they were not injured but the front part of their car was flattened.

            Here’s a picture of a different vehicle it ran into:
            http://frankmagazine.ca/sites/default/files/styles/large/public/field/image/hopper2.jpg

          13. I’ve only ever seen these in Wisconsin and when the Boston Red Sox had a procession of them for their World Series parade. Are these common in New England/the Eastern seaboard?

          14. Make that at least 5 Canadians. I live in a small town in the same province as you two (although I’m originally from elsewhere in the country).

          15. @fingstick:disqus , @disqus_sjBnbSyo83:disqus , let’s all meet at Citadel Hill when the cannon goes off!

          16. I wish I lived close enough to the city to actually spend time there (I *really* miss living in a city). Distance/not owning a car have made it so that I’ve only been into the city 2-3 times since I moved here 4+ years ago (I have however spent many, many hours in the airport nearby).

    1. Blurry Denzel, it’s your birthday
      Happy birthday, Blurry Denzel
      Blurry Denzel, it’s your birthday
      Happy birthday, Blurry Denzel

      (best birthday song ever)

  13. On RHAP, Tyson said something like “whatever tribe you’re on now IS your tribe”, and for some reason that stuck in my head. I don’t remember the exact context, but I think he was telling the rest of the panel that they can’t simply assume the original tribe lines will just hold all the way to the merge, and that the really savvy thing to do is to forge alliances from people from other starting tribes, so that they can pull in the allies they’re temporarily separated from and hit the merge with a ready-made majority. For example, now that Chrissy and Ryan have bonded, it’s pretty easy to envision an Onion alliance of Chrissy/Ben+Ryan/Devon, with JP and Lauren as numbers.

    With that and the Healers’ 6-4-4 numbers advantage in mind, I predict:

    Blue votes out Joe. He and Desi compete to throw the other under the bus hardest and fastest, and Devon and Ashley pick Desi, because they’re not morons.
    Red votes out Mr. Peanutbutter. Mike flips, since he’s on or close to the bottom of the Healers, the showmance needs to be broken up, and working with Ben and Lauren is a better bet than working with Jessica and Cole going forward.
    Yellow votes out Roark. My reasoning is the same as everyone else’s.

    1. I definitely think there’s some truth to this. We can’t assume that Tribe Configuration A creates more durable connections than Tribe configuration B. However at the merge everyone (except frantic Joe and stupid, stupid Cole) will be looking for the cleanest and easiest way to create a majority. If I’m a Hero or Hustler, I don’t want it to be an option for the Healers to just slide into a premade alliance. It may not be the strongest bond, but it’s an easy way to form an in group that doesn’t leave anyone too worried that they are being duped.

      Even if Joe and/or Cole will probably screw it up.

      The result of this logic is that there is real value in voting off the first Healer, but much less value in voting off subsequent Healers.

      1. I think the Chrissy-Ryan and Ashley-Devon (and possibly Lauren-Ben?) bonds could have enough inertia that a Heroes-Hustler alliance solidifies without all the extra steps.

        I then wonder whether OG tribes stick together a few votes past the merge out of convenience and whether either tries to pick up the last one or two healers to create a new majority.

        1. It’s too soon to say, obviously, but if this is the majority alliance post-merge, it’s fascinating because both the Ryan/Devon bond and the Ryan/Chrissy bond can be directly traced to the advantage Ryan found on the boat.

    2. Tyson is the best RHAP guest, IMO. He provides really good game analysis plus he’s actually funny. I thought the idea of going all in on a new merge tribe was good strategic advice, too.

      1. Going on all on the new tribe is a bit of results based analysis from Tyson I think, since it’s what worked for him in BvW. It’s probably good advice to try but it’s also situational

        1. Ha true, if it came solely from a place of “I did this and I won” then maybe it’s not such impressive analysis.

          1. Lol, yeah I didn’t think of that. But it still makes sense in theory: sticking tight with people from your original tribe is defensive (because it’s focused on staying safe if you go to tribal) while forging ties is offensive (because it’s focused on thriving after the merge).

  14. Note to all: there is no reason for this comment to be awaiting moderation and it is not asking to be moderated in the back end.

    1. I may have edited it four or five times in a short period of time when I was trying to figure out how to do the spoiler tags (and then noticing random typos), so maybe that’s what caused it. It seemed to be fixed by not long after you posted your comment, so it’s all good.

  15. Gotta go with Roark. The spoiler commercial gives me another chance to use these spoiler tags to drive Alkanarra crazy. Basically, I’m a badass and a manipulator of these tags. I wish I hadn’t seen that dumb commercial!

    1. The fact that your spoiler tags have gone from joke to torture says a lot. It just isn’t right!

      1. I wonder what happens if I @Taako_From_Teevhii:disqus inside of a spoiler tag? Does that mean the spoiler text is revealed in your disqus notification?

    2. I haven’t seen any commercials, and I avoided your spoiler text with my mouse so I don’t know what you wrote, but I posted elsewhere this week about how Monday’s RHAP podcast “Why Blank Lost” revealed stuff from the commercials when making their predictions for this week, specifically Dr. Mike and Jessica finding an idol, and Ben suffering from nightmares due to his marine days. I have no idea how important these events are to the episode, but I didn’t appreciate how this podcast gave that info away with no spoiler warning.

      I’ve known for years to avoid commercials, ever since they gave away that they were going to draw rocks in that BvW episode (‘In this week’s episode, something happens that hasn’t happened for 20 seasons!” Gee, I wonder what that could be?).

      When I complained to the podcast about giving away this information, I was told “If it’s in commercials by CBS, it’s not a spoiler and we can freely talk about it” When I said that not everyone had seen that commercial and that lots of viewers avoid commercials so they’re not spoiled, they said “The majority of Survivor viewers seek out these commercials and online videos because they want this information before the episode airs.”

      My response: https://media.giphy.com/media/xT5LMzn5U9wrQhvbz2/giphy.gif

  16. Another thing about the spoiler commercial: If you pay close attention, you will find no mention of @Alkanarra:disqus whatsoever. Not one single time. So there’s that.

    1. I’ll never be more disappointed than I will tonight at 9pm when I go straight to your comment history after this damn show is over. Your trolling truly knows no bounds.

    2. I would pay money to have a future Survivor contestant name-drop “The Littlest Hobo” on the show.

Comments are closed.