Survivor Heroes vs Healers vs Hustlers Week Six Predictions

Another week, another elimination. And I don’t think there were any spoilery commercials this week? Time for some spooooooky predictions.

Reader Predictions

Who do you think will go home?  You tell us for a change.

If someone goes from the Blue tribe, who will it be?

  • Joe (54% Votes)
  • Ashley (20% Votes)
  • Desi (16% Votes)
  • Devon (10% Votes)

Total Voters: 83

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If someone goes from the Red tribe, who will it be?

  • Lauren (63% Votes)
  • Cole (31% Votes)
  • Jessica (4% Votes)
  • Ben (1% Votes)
  • Mike (1% Votes)

Total Voters: 83

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If someone goes from the Yellow tribe, who will it be?

  • Ali (48% Votes)
  • JP (43% Votes)
  • Chrissy (7% Votes)
  • Ryan (2% Votes)

Total Voters: 82

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Staff Predictions

Andy

I think Joe has already found the idol and they’re just waiting to show it because two idol finds in one episode was too much. And I think the two-two impasse will be fairly obvious even though Devon wasn’t forced to show his cards at tribal two weeks ago as he and Ashley spend a lot of time together at camp (power couple!) So Joe will play his idol, for himself again, while targeting who he thinks is the biggest threat: Devon.

The former Healers should target Ben. But they’ll like him while tiring of Lauren‘s moping. Maybe Ben can join their alliance? (They hope).

I hope the Yellow tribe doesn’t go to Tribal, because any prediction besides Ali is just wishful thinking. And if you think she has plot armour, ask yourself when Michaela went home on MvGX. Pre-merge isn’t just for fodder.

John

Red tribe – Even though she’s recognized that he’s a weight that will drag her down, Jessica won’t abandon Cole yet. Instead, she and her new buddy Mike will take out Lauren. Of course, this is all academic because no team with Puzzle God Dr. Mike could ever lose a challenge.

Blue tribe- Last week, I thought it might be Joe if the blue tribe went to tribal council. But now I think the show is trying to set up a Mike vs. Joe battle later on, and that requires Joe to still be around. So Ashley is the one that goes home from this tribe, because now I’m convinced Mike takes out Joe later on with the idol that Joe accused him of searching for back in episode one.

Yellow tribe- It would make no sense if this tribe loses and Ali sticks around. Ryan has already blown it with her and he should commit to Chrissy by taking out Ali. That’s the rational. reasonable thing to do. But even though Ryan thinks he has a social game, Ali is the one that actually has it. So I’m going to predict something I want to happen rather than something I think will happen: Ali convinces Chrissy and Ryan that JP needs to go. Once Chrissy and Ryan remember that JP is still in the game and is actually on their tribe, they are convinced to send him home lest everyone forget he’s there until final tribal council.

Emma

Red: While there’s a slight chance they will consider getting rid of Ben before the merge, it’s just hard to imagine that Lauren isn’t voted out unanimously.

Yellow: Although it’s hard to come up with a scenario where JP is voted out, he’s also the only remaining tribe member who hasn’t been set up as an important character, so I’m going to guess that he goes home. More likely, they just won’t go to tribal. Probably because of JP.

Blue: It would almost certainly require idol shenanigans, but I’ll say Ashley is voted off, just to make JP a little less interesting.

Matt

Blue tribe: sticking with Desi. Still feel that they she and Joe don’t really trust each other and if Devon and Ashley look like they are actually staying strong together, I just don’t think Desi and Joe will stay together. So yeah, Desi will go home.

Red tribe: I still feel like Jessica, Cole and Mike hold all the cards here, meaning it’s Ben or Lauren. I’m tempted to pick Ben. He just got a triumphant moment last episode, the show might be done telling his story and wanted to finish it before he goes home. There is game justification too, because Ben is likeable, and could be more of a challenge threat than Lauren. But I think Lauren‘s sour attitude dooms her and sends her home

Yellow tribe: Sure looks like Ali, doesn’t it? I mean I’m not sure I have any analysis here, Ali wound up on the wrong end of a 3-2, and she is the only one left. Bye bye Ali.

Mark

Blue: I just don’t think Desi will stick by Joe after his idol play, so instead I’ll say she flips and breaks a tie at some point, thus Joe goes home.

Yellow: Frickin’ bellhops, man… Ali is on the bottom, but if that tribe loses again due to a perceived lack of strength, JP could be convinced to send a weakling home. And Chrissy did herself no favors last week. Run those numbers, girl.

Red: Lol, yeah they aren’t losing. Cole probably won’t get medevac’ed, but I wouldn’t put it past him to steal snacks from the medical tent. Instead, Lauren is probably the odd one out still.

 
Andy John Emma
Matt Mark Readers
First Out Katrina Chrissy Katrina Katrina Katrina Katrina
Second Out Simone Patrick Lauren Ali Lauren Lauren
Third Out Lauren Lauren Patrick Patrick Lauren Lauren
Fourth Out Joe Jessica Joe Joe Cole Joe
Fifth Out Roark Roark Roark Roark Roark Roark
Blue Sixth Boot Devon Ashley Ashley Desi Joe
Red Sixth Boot Lauren Lauren Lauren Lauren Lauren
Yellow Sixth Boot Ali JP JP Ali Chrissy
Score

 

 

Andy
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Andy

Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
Andy
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91 thoughts on “Survivor Heroes vs Healers vs Hustlers Week Six Predictions

  1. I went with Lauren, Ashley and JP as the boot picks. I strongly believe Blue is going to tribal though. I think Ashley and Devon will get to Desi to flip to their side but it won’t matter because Joe will find the idol. This may have been talked about here already but what do people think of idols being in the same spot on each beach? I think It’s a shitty move to do on seasons with a swap.

    1. There was a discussion in the liveblog about Probst being asked in his EW interview this week about if he was concerned that this would lead to one person finding all the idols. His response? “Nope.” The universal consensus here was that it’s bad.

      I am having trouble imagining anyone from the other 2 tribes getting taken out this week, so I also suspect we’ll see Blue at tribal. I would love to be surprised though, but only in a good way.

      1. I’m going to push back a bit on this. Clearly it’s optimal for the idols to be spread around, and Tai finding two idols in the same damn episode was overkill, but some of the most spectacular plays in Survivor history came about as a result of one player having multiple idols–Parvati, Malcolm, Jeremy sort of, and in a sense James.

        Just because the one is ideal doesn’t mean the opposite is bad. Kind of like how in baseball tight pitching duels are great, but so are 13-12 slugfests.

        1. I agree that it’s not necessarily bad when one person has both idols, but it’s boring to let it happen almost by default. Half of the greatness in Parvati’s play is from how she inherited the second idol, and the James situation is great in a Kaoh Rong super idol way – the overpowered player(s) could have derailed the whole season, but we instead are lucky enough to watch them be outplayed.

          1. Good question, I want to say no but someone else might have to remind you because I also don’t remember.

          2. I don’t remember them ever showing Danielle knowing on camera but I wouldn’t be surprised if she knew.

      2. I’m sure after Probst’s “Nope.” there was a long awkward pause where Dalton Ross waited to see if Jeff had anything else to say, and when there wasn’t, he just moved on.

  2. Only 8 days until the biggest PRP meet up ever in NYC, and I guess there is a KIA event going on that day too (tickets still available). I would love to meet as much of this awesome PRP community as possible, so let me know if you are in the area that day and want to come hang out with us.

    ETA: Cirie is going to be at KIA and she’s the fucking best, so it’s PRP plus Cirie. Sounds like some best day ever shit to me.

          1. I wish I still lived in Boston. I could drive down for that. Plus you’re meeting Kemper! That’s pretty awesome.

          2. Meeting Kemper is going to be amazing. I have a whole story about my thoughts the day I found out she was coming that I started to write out but I think I’ll save for another time. I will say though that I’m so excited to meet Kemper.

          3. Just in case you were wondering, I couldn’t make it happen this time, but I definitely want to go next time.

          4. I’m glad you mentioned that. I want to make PRP meetups a biannual thing. I know I have an advantage already living here while other people are all over the world. It would be nice though if we can get some PRP people coming around for the next KIA in March/April.

          5. These happen in LA as well, yes? I don’t have the ability, but it’d be so cool if someone organized a West Coast version. I would be so there.

    1. Alright, here’s the deal….. I, uh, I don’t much care for Rob’s podcast and will probably find the KIA stuff insufferable. (No disrespect to the man himself, but any podcast that needs sound effects gives me instant Sunny vibes.) What are your pre/post plans though for people who would rather not drop $45 for non-PRP-quality color commentary?

        1. Alright, I’ll save some time on my calendar then, but only because legends tell that the One Known As Kemper may be attending. Just gotta keep putting that pressure on you, B.

          1. Bro, I have flights and 3 KIA tickets. I’m fucking there. Even if I have to nap the day away to be up for it.

    2. Dear Everyone. I accidentally purchased a spare ticket. If no one from here wants it I might try and get a refund on the 3rd.

    3. Ok, I’m crazy enough to think that, one week out, maybe I could move some vacation days around and go to this. But I’ve never been to New York before, so if I did this, I’d need some FAQ help, like:

      Which NY airport should I go to? (New York has more than one airport? Who knew?)
      What’s the best way to get from the airport to the PRP pre-KIA gathering?
      When picking a flight, when should I plan for the flight to arrive? (to leave myself enough time to get from the airport to the PRP pre-KIA location on time)

      1. I would suggest getting a flight to JFK if possible but its not the end of the world if you end up at LaGuardia.

        Uber/Taxi is pretty easy but can be a little pricey, especially if you end up doing it during rush hour.

        I would plan on getting a flight that arrives early to mid afternoon at the latest to leave enough time to get to wherever we decide to meet up for dinner.

  3. So I went with Lauren (for all the obvious reasons), JP, because I can see Ryan trying to make up with Ali and put together an alliance of him-Ali-Chrissy, and Joe. I think Joe gets the idol, but then gets blindsided with it 3-1. Desi assures him she has Devon or something and betrays him. Or, even better, convinces him to play the idol for her while voting for him.

    Also, I like the poll at the top, it actually made me pause and think about my boot choices before voting and not just relying on your guys analysis, then see if my thoughts matched yours, which is much better.

  4. I predict this is the week they finally vote out Probst. He’s survived what, like 500 tribal councils, now? That’s not natural.

    1. Lauren is starting to look like the Andrea of last season, where we are all constantly predicting her boot and yet she stays around

      1. in that one very narrow way she is starting to look the Andrea. In no other way does she look like Andrea

          1. Fortunately I believe I can curb my budding racist inklings by reflecting on the words of a famous Canadian philosopher who was cruelly and foolishly ignored by his own countrymen.

            “The world don’t move to the beat of just one drum.” –A. Thicke.

          2. You take the good, you take the bad,
            you take them both and there you have
            Dogs unleashed, dogs unleashed.

  5. The good news is that apparently you guys were able to “fix” the “problem” that was plaguing your poll on Friday.

    PRP = fake news.

  6. I am so glad that you brought up “plot armour” @purplerockandy:disqus, because I can now bring up my observation. Since SJDS, Survivor has been doing a good job of giving characterization to the post-swap pre-merge boots. Note: this observation does not include the actual swap boot because they still tend to be a bit undercharacterized (Kelley in SJDS, Peih-Gee in Cambodia etc).
    SJDS: Dale
    WA: Joaquin
    Cambodia: Varner, Woo
    KR: Peter
    MvGX: Figgy, Michaela
    GC: Malcolm, JT, Sandra, Varner

    The only exceptions are now Monica and Terry from Cambodia and Roark from HvHvH. Terry is a weird example because he has some stuff but they clearly wanted him to have a positive edit because of the way he went out. Monica and Roark had similar edits: Younger smart woman on a tribe that never goes to tribal, swaps but stays on the same tribe, and promptly gets voted out while having limited screentime. I theorized to @disqus_3Sm0bOf1sj:disqus that Roark had screen time than Monica, but I wonder if that is due to 18 people and three tribes.

  7. If last episode is teasing a Chrissy “heel turn” and she and Ryan become the villains with Jessica being the eventual hero then I will be all in on this season.

    Anyway let’s revisit my off the cuff predictions from last week:
    -Chrissy’s tale about Roark wanting an all female alliance is a fabrication to manipulate JP
    -Red tribe continues to dominate and wins both challenges again
    -Somebody on the red tribe finds an idol clue (God I hope it is either Jessica or Cole that would be hilarious)
    -Blue tribe to tribal council

    Hmmm much better that the previous week. Right on the money with the first one, I’ll give myself half credit on predictions two and three. So 2 out of 4.

    This week in off the cuff predictions:
    – Red team will lose reward challenge and stir up some conflict
    – Cole’s not going anywhere despite fainting (this one is kind of a layup I admit)
    – Joe finds the blue beach Immunity Idol
    – I’m doubling down and saying again that blue tribal goes to TC

    1. Your first sentence is exactly what I’m hoping will happen! I’m not sure Ryan can pull off villain necessarily, but I definitely feel like Chrissy is heading in that direction, so maybe he’ll end up somewhere in the vicinity of toady.

      1. Yeah I could see that. There is a chance that, if they survive to the merge, Devon (via his connection with Ryan) and Ashley could get pulled in as co-toadies as well. I can’t figure out what kind of edit either of them is getting so they could be part of it as well.

        The only thing that hurts my theory is Chrissy’s association with Ben who is clearly getting a positive edit. Maybe she betrays him at the merge? That would do it for sure.

        1. One thought I have about Ben is that he probably would have gotten this super positive an edit even if he were the first boot, just by nature of who he is and how compelling his story is. While I still think it’s possible he could win, my current prediction is that he’ll make it to about early/mid-merge and get a heroic send off, setting him up for an eventual return.

      2. AHHHH now I’m imagining Jessica trying to take out Chrissy’s alliance only to have Cole’s big mouth blow her plans over and over again, but she can’t cut him because she needs the numbers, but then she triumphs over Chrissy in the end anyway, this thing writes itself!

  8. Lauren is almost certainly gone on the Red Tribe. The show has spent way too much time on Ben for him to go home at this point.

    I can’t see Ali surviving a tribal. Ryan has already picked Chrissy over her. Also, I think Chrissy will push hard for Ali, because Ali might threaten her ego and she believes (correctly) that she can manipulate JP.

    Blue tribe could be anyone, so I say Joe.

  9. I swear that I voted before reading the predictions, and I chose the exact same people as John for the exact same reasons. This surely means doom. *wink*

  10. JP, Lauren, and Desi seem likely to go (there isn’t really a reason for Desi to be voted out, but everyone else has had time invested in their game). That also fits with Probst’s analysis of a fairly straightforward pre merge game

    1. I agree with everything you said, except when I actually voted I said Joe instead of Desi for some reason (probably wishful thinking). But I do think Jeff would consider Desi the more straightforward vote, plus the rest of the tribe will be skittish about idols so they’d probably let Joe slide.

  11. Ali is toast if she goes to TC. Despite what reddit thinks I don’t see Lauren surviving if her tribe loses. Desi goes from her tribe if for no other reason than “who the hell else would it be”.

    If there are any shenanigans, I could see Joe being sent home. Or Cole. JP seems the second most likely from his tribe. I wouldn’t bet on any of those three, but they’re definitely the next best choices on their tribes.

  12. I am apparently the only one for the Dodgers, but I have been a fan my whole life! I am sooooo excited for our first Game 7 at Dodger Stadium!

    1. I’m on the Dodgers bandwagon as much as I can be in my “bitter about the inability of the Nationals to win any meaningful game ever” way. Nothing could ever bring me to pull for an AL team.

      1. My dad and spent a good chunk of Game 6 bitching about how stupid it is that the pitcher has to hit. AL 4 LIFE!

      1. Yeah, I get that. My fiance is a Cubs fan (sorry), and he takes no pleasure in this series either.

    2. I have to hate the Dodgers for beating the Cubs. That’s how Cubs fanship works. Even though we played awful and clearly deserved to lose to a far superior team, Go Cubs Go, boo Dodgers.

      1. Trust me, I’m even conflicted because I root so hard for my honey’s Cubbies. But damnit, they won the World Series. It’s our turn!

    3. As a person with complicated baseball allegiances none of which involve the Astros or the Dodgers, i was genially neutral until the Yuli Gurriel heal turn.

      I’m now on the Dodgers bandwagon like they were the baseball embodiment of Yul Kwon.

      1. As an Asian person who has maintained the rooting interest “Go Astros, except Gurriel. Fuck him,” I would remind you that Chase Utley is on the Dodgers.

  13. Just for how unlikely it is that it’s true, I love Andy’s prediction that Joe already found the idol but they didn’t show it. I’m assuming he is just saying yellow team won’t be going to TC.

    1. To be clear: I’m not saying that they’ll keep not showing it. Just that they’ll show it out of sequence. Like this show does all the time.

      1. Ahh…. That makes more sense. I thought you were calling for a secret idol that he would whip out at TC to blindside the audience.

  14. I predict either JP, Joe, or Lauren will get voted, and I’m 99% sure the red tribe won’t go.

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