Survivor Heroes vs Healers vs Hustlers Week Ten Predictions

Two episodes to predict this week. Given this season, I’m sure it’ll be the most exciting possible outcomes.


Reader Predictions

Who do you think will go home?

Who will be the tenth boot from Survivor: HHH?

  • Joe (36% Votes)
  • Ben (32% Votes)
  • Mike (16% Votes)
  • JP (6% Votes)
  • Ryan (4% Votes)
  • Chrissy (3% Votes)
  • Ashley (2% Votes)
  • Lauren (1% Votes)
  • Devon (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 102

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Who will be the eleventh boot from Survivor: HHH?

  • Joe (32% Votes)
  • Ben (21% Votes)
  • Mike (20% Votes)
  • Ashley (8% Votes)
  • JP (7% Votes)
  • Chrissy (4% Votes)
  • Ryan (4% Votes)
  • Devon (3% Votes)
  • Lauren (1% Votes)

Total Voters: 97

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Staff Predictions


The show has been working pretty hard to make us think that the seven is super tight and will never break… which is a good way to keep us thinking that they’ll totally break. But they won’t. Don’t buy it. They’re tricking you. They want you to keep watching their TV show. And frankly, they only have to trick you for one more week, because the Pagonging ends in a tidy back-to-back episode night.

Mike goes first when Joe plays his re-hidden idol, and the majority 7 somehow manage to not fuck up the vote split. Or, you know what, they do but Mike and Joe were voting for each other anyway. Whatever. Then they all vote out Joe.


If the main alliance turns on itself, I’m going to hope they get rid of JP. After all, no one would notice. Once he’s gone, the main alliance will unite to get Joe out — probably in the stupidest way possible, like voting for Ryan and having him play his idol so they can get out Joe in some nonsensical split vote. But let’s be real: If this season is determined to keep being bad, the Pagonging goes to the bitter end, and Mike and Joe are next.


Because John and Andy went the opposite way, I’m saying Joe goes home first. After all, if Andy is guaranteed to miss Joe’s boot after constantly predicting him, I should pick the time he doesn’t think Joe will go home right? And then because it would be nice for something moderately interesting to happen, I’ll say people turn on Ben next.


I don’t freaking know.

I think we see a shakeup this week, but I am hesitant to predict Ben (who I think is gonna see a lot of backlash), so I’m gonna chart a weird middle path and say Ashley goes first. She attacks Ben, and he and Lauren arrange for her to go home. And then because why not, they throw in JP afterwards because JP feels like a boot in a double boot episode


Double the episodes, double the fun? (Although, can you multiple zero by itself?) One thing I won’t do: predict Joe. There’s been so much chatter about the alliance of 7 being good to go that something has to give. And that something could be Ashley being a bit too vocal about Joe or someone else she doesn’t like. Chrissy, having gone one vote voting out a guy, returns to her previous strategy and ousts her fellow Hero. Then they get Mike for pulling that shit last week.

Andy John Emma
Matt Mark Readers
First Out Katrina Chrissy Katrina Katrina Katrina Katrina
Second Out Simone Patrick Lauren Ali Lauren Lauren
Third Out Lauren Lauren Patrick Patrick Lauren Lauren
Fourth Out Joe Jessica Joe Joe Cole Joe
Fifth Out Roark Roark Roark Roark Roark Roark
Sixth Out Ali JP JP Ali Chrissy Ali
Seventh Out Cole JP Desi Cole Cole Cole
Eighth Out Joe Joe Desi Desi Joe
Ninth Out Joe Cole JP Joe Joe
Tenth Boot Mike JP Joe Ashley Ashley
Eleventh Boot Joe Joe Ben JP Mike
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Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
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191 thoughts on “Survivor Heroes vs Healers vs Hustlers Week Ten Predictions

  1. I’d actually be very surprised if JP goes this early because he seems like an easy number for anyone to rope in when they want to break up the 7. But then again, why am I expecting these players to make a smart, sensible move?

    1. If JP goes, it’ll be tipped real early when they starting talking about his fantastic social game we’ve never seen any evidence actually exists (a la Cambodia Wigglesworth)

      1. Granted, I think a double boot is a likely location for him to go out if he doesn’t Troy his way to the Final 3.

  2. I feel like its a full Pagonging here but I’m predicting otherwise out of some kind of misplaced optimism I know I shouldn’t have in 2017. I still think its Mike first because he burned pretty much everything he had with the majority and out the door he goes. My second pick is Lauren based on probably too deep edit reading. I posited a theory in the podcast thread that they never told us when her advantage expires and that means she goes home or plays it before F6 (which is the expiry we were told in a secret scene) so that’s as good a time as any. My in game reason is that whatever majority 4 from the current majority has to solidify and I now guess its Chrissy-Ryan-JP-Devon (for now) and Devon and/or Chrissy put in work to save Ben (because they’re majority 4s contain Ben) so Lauren goes without having played her advantage.

    1. I think Ben becomes the obvious target when the 7 splits and I think it probably happens this episode.But as it’s obvious it’ll probably be Mike then Joe then Ashley, JP

      1. I think Ben’s the obvious target too but I think that means he survives the first vote once the alliance splits, which I know is convoluted logic

        1. This season everyone is crazy dumb so I expect a final 3 of Chrissy, Ben and Devon. The 3 who should have the best arguments to win.

  3. I went with Joe and the super surprise pick of Ryan. I know the Ryan one is a little out there because it seems like he is heading very deep in the game but I this will be the week when shit goes down and this will be a big way to start. Joe fails to get his idol and leaves but then Ben and Mike sort of repair their relationship, Lauren successfully uses her double vote and Devon makes the biggest swing in the game by blindsiding Ryan.

  4. Bonus prediction; Grammy noms are out and I’m very excited to see so much Hip Hop and R&B in top categories. I’m rooting for Childish Gambino. “Awaken, My Love” is such a great album and deserves all the recognition. I’m rooting for Kendrick Lamar. While his latest album isn’t his best, it’s still ground breaking work in rap. I think the Grammys have screwed him multiple times and it would be great to see him finally rewarded. Plus I’m rooting for SZA to win the always convoluted category of Best New Artist. She is amazing and everyone should check her out. The Grammys will find a way to disappoint me yet again.

          1. Yeah, but it does keep her out of the Album of the Year category. I think when that is up for awards then you’ll see the big Swift push.

          2. Will we? No one seems very excited about it. Then again, I haven’t met a person that likes “Look What You Made Me Do” and it became a hit just because.

          3. I hope not but we probably will. I think on star power alone that she’ll get some noms next year. That first single was really bad. The album is fine, I guess. I dont even have too many issues with Tay’s music. I like most of it. I do have issues with Taylor Swift, the artist and what I feel is way too much elevation she gets over other artists.

          4. Reputation really is more of an album for diehard fans. It gets infinitely better when the process and lyrics are explained. A lot of things that seem shallow on first listen get deeper when you’ve heard it a few times

          5. Red is an extended breakup cd, 1989 is the “woo girl” phase, and Reputation is the first album where she’s actually been in a relationship during and after the writing/release

        1. Enraged. I liked 1989 but that’s my favorite album of his. I’m also kind of sad that he didn’t play “The Blacker The Berry” when I saw him this summer because it’s my favorite song of his (and that Grammy performance was incredible) but oh well, the show was still great.

          1. I like 1989 as well. To Pimp a Butterfly was next level great. It’s my favorite of his too. He always brings it when he performs at award shows. I would love to see him one day in concert.

          2. I had to make Mark buy them for me to access the presale, and even then we had to go with the added Anaheim show because both Staples Center shows sold out so fast. Which makes sense, given the additional demand of it being a hometown show.

            Most I’ve ever spent on a concert, but 100% worth it.

          3. I was so annoyed when I heard he was performing with Imagine Dragons but goddamn that was a good performance and I don’t even like Imagine Dragons.

    1. I don’t listen to Donald’s music but any success he gets is fine by me. He has always been and probably will always be a genius.

      1. She is nominated for Album of the Year and I think she has a shot at it. I really enjoyed Melodrama though it wouldn’t be my pick.

          1. I didn’t realize it was only nom. I just assumed she was also nominated in the Pop category. God, the Grammys are so screwed up.

          2. Remember when Lorde was nominated for a bunch of Grammys in her debut year (including a win for Song of the Year) and yet was somehow not nominated for Best New Artist? Because…reasons?

            The Grammy nominating processes are just so bizarre.

          3. Shade! I’m neither here nor there on Lorde (or most popular music post…2005?), but it doesn’t track that you would nominate someone in a bunch of categories, including a couple majors, but then imply that out of all of that year’s debutantes, she’s, what, sixth-best?

          4. No, I meant it would’ve been one of the few times the award would’ve made sense if she was nominated.

          5. Hey, when Arcade Fire won Album of the Year for The Suburbs, that was their only win (granted, they were nominated in other categories but still). It’s not entirely impossible.
            Even though Lorde’s not necessarily my first choice out of the AOTY nods, I would not be upset if she won it. Still, you would’ve thought she would get more than just one nomination.

      2. I like Melodrama more than Pure Heroine and it bums me out that it’s getting less attention overall.

    2. I’ve become troublingly invested in Donald Glover EGOTing and had a feeling that “Redbone” would get him the G. But I’m stoked that he got the album of the year nod as well! I assumed he’d be relegated to the genre categories. Especially because a lot of publications were predicting Ed Sheeran would not just be nominated, but win album of the year. Yet, not a white man to be seen in that category.

      1. I’m also very invested in the EGOT. I think “Redbone” definitely wins something. I’m not sure if he takes AOTY. The album will win in the Urban Contemporary category, which is an actual thing. I was shocked there was no Ed Sheeran in that category but I’m not too broken up about it.

        1. That’s the one Lemonade won for right? Some people were saying that’s how you know it wouldn’t be AOTY, because they bothered airing Urban Contemporary on the broadcast. Had to get their Beyoncé time in. (Don’t we all?)

          1. Yeah, that’s the category. I remain confused over it’s existence and what differs it from the R&B category. I first noticed it the year Frank Ocean won, another instance of knowing someone isn’t winning AOTY. It comes off as an award to give black artists that isn’t AOTY.

          2. I was surprised to see the “traditional” R&B category too, but maybe I just didn’t notice it before because there weren’t artists I was familiar with before. I would have considered “Redbone” more like soul with funk, but maybe that’s what the Grammys mean by traditional?

            All I know is I’m annoyed at the “traditional pop” category because Seth MacFarlene was nominated. Yes, I know he does have a nice singing voice, but I still dislike him.

          3. That’s exactly how I would describe “Redbone” too and looking at the other songs in that category, they have more of a soul sound. So I guess that all checks out.

          4. I did a modicum of research and apparently that’s the first year you noticed because it’s the first year it existed. Allegedly it’s supposed to be for music with R&B influences but, ya know, contemporary. In which case I actually think Khalid would be a better winner, but he’s not gonna EGOT so…

          5. Oh he’s so great. I like Alessia Cara a lot, but I’m rooting for him for Best New Artist. (Plus, as always, they’re kind of stretching the definition with her anyway.)

          6. I’m rooting for SZA in Best New Artist (more stretching the definition) but I would be very happy if he wins.

          7. My favorite instance of this was when “Red” was nominated for AOTY and Country AOTY (for some inexplicable reason). So, the Grammys decided to air AOTY because they thought that would be Taylor’s easily. Nope, it went to Lady Antebellum.

          8. That is actually my favorite Swift album and while there is still some country influence on that album compared to Swift now, Swift was already transitioning to Pop. I consider Red a Pop album. I’m glad Lady Antebellum beat her out in that category.

          9. I think the backstory of the song annoys me enough to not like it but I admit as a song it sounds good.

          10. I don’t even mind petty too much. I think throwing shade could be fun sometimes. What Taylor did to Camilla was her at her most mean spirited. It was cold and not fun.

          11. Well, might as well rank all the albums. Reputation could move on the list the more I listen to it.

            1. Red
            2. Speak Now
            3. 1989
            4. Fearless
            5. Reputation
            6. Taylor Swift

          12. It wasn’t just that. It was the fact that Beyone gave her speech from a gold-plated piece of paper, which was a big tip-off that they told her “Sorry, you didn’t get AOTY”.

      2. I’m don’t want to call it an upset, but I hope Redbone does what Atlanta couldn’t: take home the big one in AotY. Not only would it be super awesome, but if Donald Glover ends up EGOTing, he’d be the only EGOTer with a Primetime Emmy and a Big Four Grammy.

          1. That used to be the EGOT I was invested in, but then the idea of Donald achieving that goal popped into my head.

          2. Hey, thanks for saying that. In reality, I actually probably would go Moana music > La La Land music, but La La Land > Moana.

          3. I’m actually high on Survivor Cambodia and like La La Land just fine but that is your best Cambodia diss ever.

          1. If he wins a Tony, it’ll be as an actor. But with his Emmys, he can split and claim a directing Emmy. For the Oscar, song/score might veer too close to Grammy territory. So a screenplay award it is (or costume design, who knows what other talents he has)

          2. Dude can write a stage play. Trust me. I was the lighting board op on his senior project. I fucked up the most important cue because the script was so mesmerizing.

          3. So Best Book? I would think that he’d be more likely to win for Best Score. Tho if he has the skills/background of Matt & Trey and Lin, then could he create a musical that’s more successful than Book of Mormon and Hamilton???

          4. I’m waiting to see if Jordan Peele gets nominated for Get Out. If he does, I think that opens a lot of doors for Donald.

          5. I think it’s a lock for original screenplay. Director maybe. Best Picture is also a maybe, but I see Director as more likely.

      3. Okay but first things first: if Laurie Metcalf wins the Oscar for “Lady Bird,” let’s get her a Grammy for her EGOT. Can she do a spoken word portion on a CG single or

        1. Also I saw Lady Bird with my mom this weekend, which was fitting especially because she wouldn’t let me take French in high school because it’s not practical.

  5. There are a lot of switch ups this week in the Blurry Denzel power rankings. This us who has the best chance to win Survivor.

    1. Devon
    2. Chrissy
    3. Ryan
    4. Ben
    5. Lauren
    6. Mike
    7. Ashley
    8. Joe
    9. JP

    Count me in on the Devon bandwagon. I don’t think there is a single configuration of players that sees him as a target more than a potential ally.

    Ben and Mike take a huge fall this week. Ben is a target and is coming across badly with his own allies. Mike blew a lot of his chances with his poor play last week.

    JP remains consistent.

    1. I’m loving the fact that as soon as John picked Devon via randomizer that here and then elsewhere people have started settling on Devon as the consensus front runner. (I do want to note that I think our commentariat was a bit ahead of the curve on this one)

          1. The most recent RHAP episodes I’ve listened to are the KIA and Tyson-cast from last week. As of then the guest list is Kim Spradlin, Reynold with Burton and Colby, and Brett with a mystery guest. Is there another surprise guest that’s been announced since then or are you referring to Brett’s guest?

          2. Ditto, and I hadn’t even seen One World yet when I first heard about her being there.

            I have since watched One World. It sucked but Kim is amazing.

          3. He’s apparently friends with Reynold. I wouldn’t be surprised if he hasn’t been watching this season and doesn’t really come up on stage.

          4. Stephen was on the Devon train even before John (but not before true Devonites like myself, more like week 6 or so). I think he has a reputation as an edgic lurker. Can you confirm?

      1. Matt let a randomizer pick his fantasy team, and he’s #2 in our fantasy league right now. I let the randomizer pick my Outcasts league team, and I’m in the lead. Then the randomizer chose Devon as my rooting interest, and I’m now convinced he’s going to win.

        I may never make decisions on my own again.

        1. To be fair, I had my family pick fantasy teams based solely on name and picture and the best of the 3 is 89th while I am 15th.

      2. I was high on him going into the season. He mentioned Jay in his bio and I thought he had more potential than the seemingly naive Cole and seemingly generic JP. I like being right.

        1. If I’d read his bio and seen that I might have been higher on him too! But he wasn’t getting a lot of pre-season hype and he kind of slipped under the radar for me coming into the season when I was focused on Cole’s abs

        2. Both Devon and Jay were first round picks for me. I think growing up by the beach has given me the ability to tell the difference between dumb surf bros and dudes who happen to like surfing.

        3. He didn’t particularly stand out for me from the pre-game press, but I liked what we saw of him in the premiere and switched him in for cole in pick-4 and made him my overall pick in the tribe-fantasy game.

    2. I might have put Lauren higher, but this seems about right. I didn’t make one this week because I don’t care.

    3. Not much time, but I also wanted to update my ranking:

      1. Dev
      2. Ben
      3. Chrissy
      4. Mike
      5. Lauren
      6. Ryan
      7. Joe
      8. Ash
      9. JP

      Ben actually rose a little in my rankings over the last couple of weeks. The drama surrounding him reminds somewhat of the doubts put into Adam’s edit (real AND exaggerated), but he’s still super present and strategic. Wouldn’t be shocked if he got cut soon though, but I think Ryan is the more likely early victim among the big edits (but I’m afraid that he’ll save himself this week with an idol).

      Lauren looks better and better, but I feel like there would be so much more of her if she won.

  6. I figure: Joe finds an idol. Ashley and Lauren team up with Joe and Mike to take out Ben. Ben decides not to split votes. Joe confidently plays his idol for himself, but 5 votes go to Mike.
    Second episode: Ben declares that they have to split votes. Devises intricate, surefire plan to send Joe packing. Voting ends up 2-1-1-1-1-1-1 somehow through utter confusion, with Ashley taking the hit.

  7. Sweet, a 2 hour episode. I thought it was just a standard 1 hour-2 boot episode.

    This makes me think Joe and Mike survive. I think if it was a pagonging, it would have only been a 1 hour episode.

  8. Here are my thoughts on the outcomes based on NTOS. Lauren is seen talking out a plan with Joe and Mike. I am assuming Ben (her closest ally) tells her about Ryan’s idol.

    Best case scenario: Lauren is on the 4 side of a 4-3 vote split and gets Mike and Joe to vote alongside her. She uses her double vote along with their’s to take out Ryan 4-3-3.

    Dumber scenario: Same thing, but she takes out Chrissy, Devon, Ashley or JP, leaving Ryan afraid and with an Idol.

    Even dumber scenario: She proposes this, but Joe and Mike turn on each other and the vote is 4-4-Lauren’s 2.

    Hilarious Dumb Scenario: Joe is all in on the plan, but Mike turns on Joe. However, Joe found an Idol and uses it on himself. The vote is 3 Mike-3 Lauren’s target and Mike goes home on the revote.

  9. Joe finds an idol. Lauren wins immunity. Ben insists on personally voting out Joe, so he assigns the men to vote Joe and the women to vote Mike, steamrolling the women, all of whom want to vote Joe also. Lauren uses her advantage to put a fourth vote on Mike for the lulz and so everybody can vote Joe on the revote. Joe plays his idol. Ryan panics and plays his idol on Mike. No votes count. Production realizes it hasn’t thought the advantage through completely, and can’t decide whether Lauren gets a second vote on a revote, or if she has to draw two rocks if it goes to rocks. They give up and everybody goes back to camp. This is why it’s a two-hour episode.

    1. But…but Lauren wears the necklace, she doesn’t have to draw any rocks, and since she faked a 2nd vote when she earned the advantage, she now gets one extra on the re-vote when she uses it. Easy.
      Pay me, Survivor production!

      1. D’oh! Well, I guess I’m wrong about what’s going to happen then! But you raise an interesting question–if Lauren had stuffed the second blank parchment into her bra rather than pushing it off the table, could she have reasonably insisted to production that she now had two extra votes? After all, she had to take some non-zero amount of risk two times rather than once, shouldn’t she get some kind of extra reward?

        1. Lauren actually wasn’t supposed to flick that 2nd vote off the table, she could (and should) have just put a blank parchment into the urne on the re-vote, but she probably didn’t read that far into the fine print (well, she did in front of a camera, that’s where I know the exact wording from) or forgot that part when it became relevant.
          So my stand-in answer for production is: No, she was just stupid to make her 2nd vote into a risky endeavour, when she didn’t have to (damn, that’s not jiving well with that other comment I just wrote in response to you)

  10. Part two and three of my trifecta prediction:
    -Joe ends up immune from the first vote (through individual immunity or an idol) and Ben is voted out.
    -In the second hour, Joe has nowhere to hide and is ultimately eliminated.

    (part 1 was that Cole was voted out in a boring pre-Thanksgiving pagonging episode)

  11. I wasn’t able to keep you guys updated on the last couple of rounds because life happened last week but the winner of the Canadian TV bracket challenge was Mr. Dress-up, who beat Kids in the Hall. Heritage Minutes beat out Degrassi in the 3rd place match-up. So there you have it, Mr. Dress-up is Canada’s most memorable TV thing (which makes total sense). @hornacek:disqus @fingstick:disqus @purplerockandy:disqus

    1. One of my regrets in life is that I missed going to see Mr. Dressup when, many years ago, he was doing a Canadian tour and he came to (I think it was) The Grawood (which is the tavern at one of our local universities). I guess they underestimated the turnout because there were huge crowds flooding out onto nearby streets – all these university students who were psyched to see Mr. Dressup

      1. I saw him in Truro when I was pretty young, something like 8. From what I remember it was pretty cool. I can really see that kind of turnout happening at Dal (or any university really) from a bunch of nostalgic students

      1. Mr. Dressup is a kids show. The final round was a total apples to oranges vote. You can’t really compare the shows against each other at all. Mr. Dressup is so iconic to generations of Canadians from their childhood, so nostalgia won out

          1. “That’s the second time this year that Canadian nostalgia has ruined made a poll even awesomer.”


          2. It’s really leaning into the Canadian stereotype to have misplaced longing for how things used to be result in Mr. Dressup, rather than Brexit or Trump.

      2. Mr. Dressup was a wholesome kids show about a single man living with a young boy who was not his son who liked to dress up in different outfits he pulled out of his “tickle trunk”.

        Nothing wrong with that.

  12. I chose Ryan and Mike. Ben decided to get rid off Ryan, and without telling Chrissy about that plan knowing about her relationship with him, and Ryan is blindsided with an idol in his pocket. Chrissy then decides to vote off Ben down the road, but unable to do it that round, they decide to vote off Mike as a bigger jury threat than Joe.

    Ashley Underwood, we’re forever grateful for what you’ve brought to the game. We are not worthy of the joy you bring us.

    1. Ryan won’t be voted out with the idol in his pocket. Its been made very clear to us where the idol will be if he’s voted out without playing it

  13. Continuing the theme of posting stuff today that has nothing to do with Survivor, the NY Giants have benched Eli Manning and I’m livid. Not the way I wanted the Eli era to end. I’ll always appreciate what he has done for the Giants. I hope he succeeds elsewhere. He was never the best or even top 5 in any season he played but he is way better than he gets credit for and he deserved to go out better than this. Makes it even easier to quit watching.

    1. It’s a bummer, but the move makes sense. He’s already 37 and hasn’t had a good year (I know he lost all of his WRs, but he isn’t winning). This gives them a chance to see what the rookie can do since they have 5 meaningless games left. The part I don’t understand is that they plan on starting Geno. He’s absolutely not better than Eli and he’s not their QB of the future, so why waste the playing time on him?

      1. I wouldn’t be as pissed if Geno wasn’t involved in this. I don’t think Eli is completely done as a QB and can go somewhere that is loaded in other positions and do pretty decent.

        1. Absolutely. There are always teams that could use a QB. Jacksonville is just a QB away from being a real contender. It’ll be interesting to see what happens with Eli this offseason.

  14. OK, I just rewatched the episode, doing my best to look at the game through Mike’s eyes. I think I figured out what he was doing. Long story short–what he’s doing is not great, but it’s not completely nonsensical.

    Right now, the Healers are just getting Pagonged one by one. Mike needs that to change before they come for him. In order for that to happen, a) the majority seven need to fracture, and b) one side or the other needs to take Mike on as a number. From Mike’s point of view, the seven look pretty impenetrable (remember, he doesn’t see that people are getting a little sick of Ben, for example, because he’s shut out of those conversations). He couldn’t find a crack to exploit this round, so his priorities this tribal were to a) simply survive the vote, and b) set himself up well for the next round.

    Playing the idol accomplishes both goals. It ensures that he gets to the next round no matter what, and it makes himself more attractive as a number because people now know for sure that he doesn’t have an idol. It was the equivalent of throwing the idol into the ocean in front of everybody. I don’t think he seriously entertained the idea of idoling somebody out, because although that would break up the seven, he would be dead meat next time.

    This also explains his behavior at tribal. He shut down Joe because he needs the seven to fracture, and right now they’re united by their hatred of Joe. Yes, Mike obnoxiously attacked the majority seven, but except for the “who do you mean by ‘we'” remark directed at Chrissy, he only attacked them as a collective and exhorted them to start playing the game, he didn’t single anybody out for criticism. I think he was doing all he could to get them to fracture, not that they would fall apart at this tribal, but so there are cracks to work over the next three days.

    He voted for Cole to show Ben that he can follow orders (Ben mentions that he told Mike to vote Cole when Chrissy was trying to put the vote on Joe) and would be a useful number if Ben is on the wrong side of the numbers after the seven break up.

    So if I’m right, I would expect that in the next episode Mike will continue to look for the cracks in the seven, and if there’s a 4-3 division, to offer himself and Joe up as numbers to the side with 3.

    1. The key to this would be whether people suspect that Mike has an idol. My guess is that no one does. Ben and Lauren might be able to figure out that if they don’t have the Yawa idol and Cole didn’t play it (when he was clearly and definitely in danger), then the last person who might still have it is Mike. But they can’t get a vote split right, so I’m not sure they can get to that conclusion.

      So then if no one suspects Mike of having an idol, it’s better to hold onto your secret idol and not raise your profile as an idol finder. I think playing the idol (and creating a fake idol) raises Mike’s threat level in the view of his opponents.

    2. That’s about where I’m at in regards to the last episode. Yes, it didn’t look great on television with what we were shown and the way the votes turned out, but I also didn’t find it that hard to think of reasons for Mike playing this round the way he did. Sure, in retrospect he could have held on to his idol and used it at a more opportune time, but he didn’t know for sure that he would survive that vote, so why not play it extra safe and reduce your target for the following votes in the process (I don’t see why his little tribal antics should poison the water for future collaboration with elements of the seven, it didn’t seem that big of a deal). And judging from this week’s exit press, there was more upside to his approach than met the/our eye(s).

      That he didn’t know if he could trust Ben to leak the real target to him, to me is also exemplary for why we haven’t seen great gameplay this season. It’s not because these players are incapable of basic Survivor math and strategy (for that matter: it only takes one to screw up a vote split, doesn’t mean that everybody involved is an idiot), but because they are capable enough to play a modicum of “defense” and not make it easy for any opposition to ruin their plans. It has to be really hard to play yourself out of the minority against a competent majority and I’m not ready to condemn Dr.Mike because he didn’t succeed immediately.

      It still has been a rather boring season, but I don’t think it’s fair to proclaim the whole cast to be Gabon-level bad at Survivor just now. That doesn’t mean there wasn’t plenty of bad gameplay on display, or that there won’t be even more head-scratchers coming up than in a usual season, but so far this doesn’t strike me as an outlier season in that regard.

  15. So I’m late to the game, just watched the episode last night, and rewatched the two previous episodes as well. By the time I got to the pasta reward/idol fight I realized it. Everybody was SAYING the things you feel like people are supposed to say: “I need to build trust with X,” “I am a student of this game,” “We need to split the vote because X might have an idol,” “X has good strategy,” etc. but nobody was DOING the right things. This season is Parody Survivor. It’s a bunch of people who think they know how to play the game out there making a mess of everything. It’s like a Saturday Night Live skit about Survivor, only it’s real. By the time I got to the end of episode 9 and saw Mike’s transparent effort to piss people off so that they would vote for him so he could play his idol so that COLE COULD JUST GET VOTED OUT ANYWAY I realized I was right. This season is a comedy guys. I think even the EDIT is a parody this season, with blatantly obvious attempts early on to make us think Ryan, Chrissy, and Ben were the people we should invest in and in the last couple of episodes suddenly swerving to make the three of them look pretty bad. I think the end of this season is going to be chaos, but not in a good way.

    That being said I’m going to say Ben goes next and Joe after that. Just because.

    1. Let’s just sit back and enjoy Survior: The Sitcom and laugh, and when it’s over we can put it in the bottom tier of seasons and hopefully forget it ever happened.

      1. The nice thing is that even though the players are stupid, they’re not particularly mean. So that at least gives this season an edge over Nicaragua or Gabon for me.

        1. My argument on Gabon has always been that even though the players were stupid and mean a few were at least memorable. I don’t know that this season even has that. Though I have been thoroughly enjoying some of Devon’s throwaway lines and Lauren’s crankiness.

          Not sure yet where I’d put this in relation to Gabon and I haven’t seen Nicaragua. Probably will end up ahead of both (and Thailand) for me if I had to guess.

          1. That’s a fair point about Gabon – there are players and story lines that I remember from that season, at least (even if they were unpleasant). I’m not sure what the legacy of HHH will be. In fact, I literally just forgot the name of this season for a second. Maybe the legacy will be the collective amnesia we will all get immediately after it’s over?

          2. The conclusion to this Saturday Night Live skit is JP wins and they forget to give him the million dollar check because nobody remembers him being there.

          3. Wait, was Gabon in the same tier as Nicaragua in terms of meanness? Because to me what clearly puts Gabon over Nicaragua is how funny it is, mostly unintentionally. Yes, Randy and Corinne are obviously exceptions, but a) I think Randy’s meanness and Corrine’s meanness are of completely different types, and b) the rest of the cast more than make up for it by being hilarious. I think @batleon:disqus is really onto something–where in Gabon the cast was totally inept at the game, they were also colorful and behaved in completely bizarre ways if you’re goal is to win Survivor, compared to HHH where the cast is almost as inept, but they’re bland and saying the right things to the camera.

          4. Yeah I am going back and forth right now about what is better – ineptitude and awfulness or ineptitude and blandness. Awfulness can be entertaining or cringeworthy, but so can ineptitude. The jury is out on this season about whether this is entertaining ineptitude or cringeworthy ineptitude.

    2. You said it exactly. I have not even gotten around to last week’s episode yet which is a first for me. For most, what it seems like is they are saying things that are unnatural and what the producers want (or nothing at all – JP) so that they get a return invite.

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