Survivor Kaoh Rong Finale Predictions and Polls

Four contestants, a to-be-determined amount of tribal councils, one winner! It’s time to get down to brass tacks.

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Predictions

Andy: We all agree that Aubry and Cydney are the most dangerous players out there, and that Tai is the most beatable. But I’m not sure they agree on the island (a year ago. I don’t know what tense to use. So confuse). I think the women decide to have that all female final 3 they were jazzed about at different times this season. Plus, Tai has been the plan for awhile now. Why mess with the plan? He becomes the last person voted out.

That’s right, final three. I’m sticking to my guns. I feel like Cydney would be a lot of people’s second choice, but she isn’t that many people’s first choice against Aubry. She finished third. Michele has a couple of friendly faces on the jury to get her to second. Aubry wins comfortably. (Bonus jury prediction: Debbie for Cydney, Julia and Tai for Michele, everyone else for Aubry).

John: 4th: Cydney– I have accepted the fact that my preferred outcome will not come to fruition, and Cydney will not win this season. Surely that’s because she doesn’t make it to final tribal council, where they would reward her greatness.
3rd: Tai– I never imagined a scenario where people would be hoping to take Tai to the end, but here we are. He seems likely to struggle to win votes a final tribal council.
2nd: Michele– I assume someone will vote for her.
1st: Aubry– From the first days where it seemed like she couldn’t cut it, Aubry has emerged from repeated setbacks (admittedly, some of her own making) to become the worthy winner of Survivor’s self-described “most brutal season ever”.

Emma: 4th place: Aubry will work with Tai to turn on Cydney. Michele goes with it because that’s what she does.
3rd place: Aubry wins the challenge when it counts, and decides to stick with Tai until the end, casting the single vote for Michele.
2nd place: Tai pulls an Amanda Kimmel and spends FTC crying and apologizing. It doesn’t work, leaving the jury with no other choice than to vote for…
1st place: Aubry, who the jury already liked and respected anyway.

Mark: Remember Cydney saying she’s not going to a final three with no damn Tai? I’m predicting a pun and there’s a F4 fire making tie between her and Tai. (Michelle/Cydney vs Tai/Aubry.) Tai wins sending Cydney home. When the final two twist is revealed, the girls panic, since they were supposed to beat him at Final Tribal, and whichever of them wins immunity votes Tai out. It’s a Michelle/Aubry final 2 and the fan community goes to blows for 20 minutes until the reunion. Despite a season-long troll campaign, it’s become harder to ignore Michele‘s lack of claims to the title beyond playing the BFF card. Aubry has more paths to victory, and deserves it more, so I’m hoping she comes out on top.

Also, Mark the Chicken gets to cast the tiebreaking peck. (If he isn’t eaten on Day 39 after Tai goes).

Matt: 4th Cydney goes home, this is the one I feel most confident about and I am not at all confident about it. I think Aubry and Tai will be together (maybe Tai is immune) and will target Cydney, I think Cydney and Michele will target Aubry, but Michele flips at the end rather than force a tie and Cydney goes home.
3rd I believe there is a final 2 so sure you want me to say that Aubry goes home here and then Michele beats Tai at FTC, BUT I’M NOT DOING IT DAMMIT. Instead I will say this is where Michele goes! That is right, she doesn’t even make it to the end, but instead Tai and Aubry do
2nd and 1st: At FTC Tai tries playing the sympathy card, but is surprised when people start coming at him hard for his “flip-flopping” and “betrayals.” This causes him to melt-down a bit and kills the low chance he had to win. Aubry meanwhile receives some criticism, but it is clear that she is going to win and she does fairly handily with something like a 7-2 vote. I do think Tai will get a vote or two, but it won’t really be close.

Andy John Emma Mark Matt Readers
Eighteenth
Place
Alecia Alecia
Alecia Alecia Darnell  Alecia
Seventeenth
Place
Cydney Cydney
Cydney Alecia Alecia Alecia
Sixteenth
Place
Debbie
Joe Joe Liz
Joe Joe
Fifteenth
Place
Caleb
Caleb Neal
Caleb Caleb
Caleb 
Thirteenth
Place
Neal
Joe Nick
Nick Neal
Nick
Twelfth
Place
Peter
Joe Julia
Peter Peter
Peter
Eleventh
Place
Aubry
Nick Nick
Joe Joe
Joe
Tenth
Place
Cydney
Cydney Nick
Debbie
Michele
Nick
Ninth
Place
Julia
Michele
Scot
Tai
Michele
Scot
Eighth
Place
Aubry
Julia
Cydney
Cydney
Julia
Cydney
Seventh
Place
Julia
Julia
Julia
Julia
Julia
Julia
Sixth
Place
Joe
Jason
Tai
Tai
Cydney
Tai
Fifth
Place
Joe
Cydney
Joe
Joe
Michele
Joe
Fourth
Place
Tai
Cydney
Cydney
Cydney
Cydney
question-mark
Third
Place
Cydney
Tai
Michele
Tai
Michele
question-mark
Second
Place
Michele
Michele
Tai
Michele
Tai
question-mark
Winner Aubry
Aubry
Aubry
Aubry
Aubry
question-mark
Score
Preseason
Winner
Pick
Peter Michele
Jennifer
Michele
Peter Jennifer
Midseason
Winner
Pick
Tai Michele
Aubry
Michele
Tai Michele

Who will finish fourth on Survivor Kaoh Rong?

  • Cydney (55% Votes)
  • Tai (25% Votes)
  • Aubry (14% Votes)
  • Michele (7% Votes)

Total Voters: 73

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Who will finish third on Survivor Kaoh Rong?

  • Tai (48% Votes)
  • Michele (29% Votes)
  • Cydney (14% Votes)
  • Aubry (10% Votes)
  • No One (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 73

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Who will finish second on Survivor Kaoh Rong?

  • Michele (42% Votes)
  • Aubry (21% Votes)
  • Tai (19% Votes)
  • Cydney (18% Votes)

Total Voters: 72

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Who will win Survivor Kaoh Rong? [Final prediction]

  • Aubry (56% Votes)
  • Michele (35% Votes)
  • Cydney (6% Votes)
  • Tai (4% Votes)

Total Voters: 72

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Medevac Scenario Game

Final score: Andy 4 John 3

Andy
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Andy

Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
Andy
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  • Kemper Boyd

    Guys. I’ve really enjoyed this season. I think it’s been generally way above what I was expecting with the lack of hype. I think the reason I’ve enjoyed it so much is you guys. This website, the staff and the commenterhave made the whole season way fun.

    • You guys are always fun to talk Survivor with, which is the only reason I’d even consider giving up precious offseason time to watch Gabon and discuss it with you all.

      • Mike Hirsch

        …But I *like* Gabon.

        • Well you’re in for a treat! Or not, depending on our reaction to it.

          • Mike Hirsch

            I know, I’m staking what little reputation I have on this.

          • Unless you competed on that season, I’m not going to blame you for its quality.

          • Roswulf

            Hirsch….Herschel…

            It would be irresponsible NOT to assume that Mike Hirsch is secretly Charlie Herschel.

          • Sylvisual

            The guy who got killed in Walking Dead?

          • sharculese

            Even Kenny is kind of apologetic about Gabon.

          • prettyboyprobst

            nah, he’s just full of excuses

          • Mike Hirsch

            Is there a formal plan for watching it? I’m game to give it another go.

          • There is. The exact details are being finalized, but we’ll let you all know on the podcast this week (and on Twitter).

          • Sylvisual

            Worst case, we just call him a loser in the voting booth.

          • prettyboyprobst

            I’ve only binge-watched Gabon once and haven’t rewatched, but I imagine it’s a great season for a rewatch. So many great characters, great moments and that beautiful location. Who cares for strategy or suspense in a rewatch?
            Back to the personnel, we get Crystal, GC, Randy, Ace, Sugar, Kenny, sleeping Bob, sad Dan, that cute girl, that old lady, that old Mexican lady, we get to hate Corinne and, I just checked, there’s a Michelle, too! (although with two L’s. Can’t win with so many L’s)

            Count me in, I’m on board of the SS Rewatch!

    • Violina23

      Yes, thank you! It’s the only thing I’ve ever bothered to “live tweet” and then I spend even more time commenting in psuedo-real time. I’ve been enjoying it. I will consider re-watching Gabon, considering I remember next to nothing about it. (Was that the season with Sugar? I’m too lazy to look it up)

      P.S. I won’t be able to watch live as I have a rehearsal tomorrow night, so I’ll miss the fun with you all… live-tweeting the reunion would have been WAY too much fun.

      Make a joke about Mark the Chicken in my honor!

      • Kemper Boyd

        It’s 3 hours of Survivor that starts at 1am. Unless I nap from 8pm-1am and then watch (I am considering it) I will be watching at some time tomorrow.

        • prettyboyprobst

          May I ask how you would watch it? The site I was using got worse and worse, and I’m afraid two hours of reloading every 5-10 minutes won’t be too much fun. (don’t link, but maybe you could describe?)

          • Kemper Boyd

            I didn’t in the end and missed this comment SORRY, but when I do I use Stream2watch.co (I think it’s co at the moment).

          • prettyboyprobst

            Thanks and don’t worry, that’s my go-to as well, but it was borderline useless last night and I was recklessly checking for other solutions throughout the first hour of the finale, to no avail.
            Then it got a little bit better and I settled on that one. Anyway, I’m pretty sure you made the right call.
            Ratings must have been great if that experience was any indication.

          • Kemper Boyd

            I’ll let you know if I find another. I only really watch live in the glorious 2 week period when America goes to Summertime and Britain is still waiting to and it’s only a 4 hour gap so it starts at Midnight.

          • prettyboyprobst

            That would be great, but be careful out there!

            Considering you barely watch live, I may well find one before you, and I’ll gladly let you know then, too. But yesterday was really frustrating in that regard. I tried a lot but everything was either way too choppy or not working at all, and of course some were loaded with bad shit or so disreputable that FF wouldn’t let me open them at all. Stream2watch at least had steady sound and even became halfway decent, before deteriorating again during FTC and for the reunion.

            At some point early during this season (or was it last season) I saw someone linking to youtube streams, but despite looking at various live-threads if I have enough time before an episode starts ever since, I haven’t seen anyone do that for a long while now.

  • Roswulf

    I think the most interesting column in the chart is the Mid-Season winner’s pick. It seems fair to say that by mid-season, the edit (with an assist from Jason and Scot being Jason and Scot) had chopped the likely pool of winners to three, including three of the final four. But the show has done a great job of not narrowing that number to one. I mean, I agree with the concensus that Aubrey is the likeliest winner, but I also would not be shocked by her being bounced right before final tribal. Unlike a season like Worlds Apart, there’s a plausible, reasonable satisfying story to be told where Aubrey loses.

    Now watch Cydney win the season (which would be awesome).

    • I will happily accept being wrong if it involves Cydney winning. But even though I think the story has identified one clear leader for the win, it didn’t completely disqualify any of the other three. And you’re right, that does make for a fun and interesting final episode.

      • Assistant Dragon Slayer

        That right there, I think, is the explanation for Michele’s edit. How much less interesting would the finale be if she had gotten a Purple edit? Kaoh Rong finished filming at about the same time the World’s Apart finale aired. I think the editors may have realized that a more visible edit for Mama C would have improved that finale (there wasn’t much they could do with Will, and Mama C was allegedly better-liked and less of a wet blanket than how she was portrayed).

        • prettyboyprobst

          You could be onto something, but I tend to think they would have to change up, or we’d have three in-your-face winner edits in a row, and Survivor doesn’t want to become easily predictable.
          We’re still supposed to like Aubry the best and root for her, but maybe they want us also to cry with her when one more thing goes wrong for Aubry.

    • Sylvisual

      I said for the longest time that Tai was YauMan (4th, betrayed) and Aubry was Cirie (booted unfairly due to a F2 twist), but I can’t help but think she has this if Cydney is the F4 boot. That said, agreed that this is a strong final four with a lack of an “obvious” front runner. And the show is better for it.

  • gouis

    Living that All Michele Ticket life.

    • andythesaint

      I’m so sad I didn’t get a screenshot of her winning the final three spots.

  • Diego Armando

    My prediction for the advertised twist is that the season ends before day 39. My bonus guess is that the following happens: the final 4 vote out someone (I’ll use Tai for this example) and Jeff asks him to bring him his torch. “Tai the tribe has spoken…”, sniffs torch, “now take a seat with the Jury. Final tribal begins right now.”

    • Other Scott

      And they fill a 2 hour episode with a 1.5 hour FTC?

      • Roswulf

        You could maybe do it with Tai in the FTC. I can imagine Tai hopelessly floundering for forty minutes being reasonably dramatic, especially if Mark comes to FTC and we get chicken reaction shots throughout.

      • Hornacek

        Extra twist – the final episode is only an hour, the reunion is 2 hours. Forty-five minutes of the reunion is spent on Mark the chicken.

        • DrVanNostrand

          I want to see Tai at the finale with Mark perched on his shoulder like he’s a kindhearted pirate.

          • Hornacek

            Hey, we saw that in the first part of the finale!

    • Violina23

      I find the idea of an immediate final tribal without time to plan and muse over what to say to the jury…. intriguing

  • Diego Armando

    My conspiracy theory that could explain an Aubry victory, Michele’s prominence and Probst’s disappointment in the season is that Probst’s really wanted Michele to win. He was hoping to make her the next Parvati, but then she up and lost to some nerd girl.

    • That’s brilliant.

    • andythesaint

      My theory for those three things:
      Aubry victory: the jury thinks she played best
      Michele’s prominence: doesn’t actually exist
      Probst’s disappointment: is a myth

      • Even though Probst was still unenthusiastic sounding in his EW blog? I had this conversation on Reddit and some people did (rightfully, I believe) counter with the fact that he is not over the moon about the medevacs, so he is a little more down on the season. But, he could have say that he was excited for the final four or this season has been an unpredictable one strategically which would underplay the hardness of the season. But, that particular choice of words is fairly damning. In fact, it reminds me of how he wasn’t hot on Philippines but over the moon about Caramoan.

        • Purplerockmatt

          it was a tough production and on top of that there were three evacs. that is how probst evaluates seasons

          • I can absolutely see that but I also think he evaluates seasons on winners as well. He loved Cochran, so Caramoan was fantastic. He loved Mike, so Worlds Apart was great. He was meh on Natalie A., so SJDS was terrible. That statistic makes me think that he is not super high on the winner.

          • andythesaint

            Or we ascribe fan fiction to his supposed moods about things.

          • That as well…I guess I am just bracing myself for the Michele truthers to be really obnoxious on Twitter and keep in mind, I have Michele on my Pick 4 for the Probstian comparison to Parvati.

          • Purplerockmatt

            there is also the live viewing factor in his evaluation. Mike winning would be a lot more exciting on the island because he went on this nutso immunity streak.

          • To beat people that ranged from extremely boring to actively terrible.

        • Purple Rock Emma

          Philippines is so much better than Caramoan though.

        • Alycia Swift

          Perhaps because the final four is 3 females and a non-alpha male (even though the male is a “character’) is why Probst may be down on the season. This is the exact same as San Juan Del Sur – 3 females and a non-alpha male who was a “character.”

          • andythesaint

            Or perhaps because he almost watched a contestant die. That might be something.

          • prettyboyprobst

            Didn’t he always seemed to be pretty enthusiastic about Russel Swan almost dying?
            Actually dying would obviously be a disaster, but almost dying… ka-ching?

      • DrVanNostrand

        I largely agree. Except, I do think Michele got a crazy good edit for someone so massively boring. The reason though, is very simple. She made it all the way to the finale, maybe even FTC, so the editors did their best to make sure we were aware of her existence, in spite of how boring she was.

  • Other Scott

    I really think it’s an Aubry-Cydney final 2. They’ve been working together the whole time, they’ve each decided to support the other’s decisions when it may not have been in they’re own personal best interests, and I think they both think they can beat the other one.

    Also, I’m always wrong.

    • Ms. Sweaterfan

      I completely agree with this prediction, and anyone who questions my prediction skills can check out my fantasy team (and see proof that they are terrible).

    • You’re wrong, but this is my dream scenario. For a lot of reasons.

    • Kemper Boyd

      I think you are wrong but I would love to see it as well. I could see Aubry beating Cydney as the kind of win that Jeff may not enjoy (working under the conspiracy theory of Jeff being down on the season). Cydney would be a winner I think Jeff would get behind, a big strong woman (although her gameplay has been subtle outside her flip).

    • Hornacek

      I’d love that, and before last week’s episode I would say it’s possible, but after Aubry’s realization that she doesn’t want to go to no tribal council with no damn Cydney, I think she will do everything she can to make sure she gets voted out.

  • Purple Rock Emma

    To be honest, I’m actually really starting to think Michele might win. But a) Changing my pick ruins my chance for a tie breaker (which I guess is impossible anyway, given my point total) if Aubry wins and b) I’m pretty sure I would be excommunicated if I made that prediction official.

  • Mike Hirsch

    The last shocking twist of the season: Everyone gets medevac’d at the final immunity challenge, and nobody wins.

    • Hornacek

      Mark wins by default!

      • Sylvisual

        Do I get a giant Publisher’s Clearinghouse check delivered to my door?

        • Hornacek

          You do, but it is all a ruse! The man with the giant cheque removes his disguise to reveal he is Jason and takes you into custody for having skipped your bounty. He convinced your mother to give you up.

  • Assistant Dragon Slayer

    If Aubry makes it to the end I think she wins and it’s not close regardless of who she’s with. If Aubry doesn’t make it to the end, I think Cydney has three solid votes (Debbie, Joe, and Aubry) and Michele has three solid votes (Scot, Julia, and Jason). What’s preventing me from making a more confident prediction is 1) not knowing whether it’s an F2 or an F3, and 2) having no real idea how Neal or Nick would vote in an Aubry-less FTC.

    • Kemper Boyd

      I think there is a shout at a tie with Cydney v Michele.

      • Assistant Dragon Slayer

        Definitely possible. If I’m correct in my vote count, and the jurors are opening talking about their votes at Ponderosa, I think Neal and Nick would be more interested in forcing the first-ever FTC tie than in choosing or the other (or they could throw their votes on Tai for the lulz).

    • prettyboyprobst

      I’m surprised so many people here are absolutely sure that Aubry wins if she makes any kind of FTC. With all the truthers out there, doesn’t that at least make you want to think about scenarios of what could kaoh rong? (sorry, it’s been so long)

      I suggested something similiar for the podcasts, so it’s only fair to list some numbers I came up with (/invented/fantasized) myself. These indicate (what I think is) the likelihood of every juror’s vote going to a given finalist in the final 3 scenario that includes Aubry and probably would be the hardest to win for Michele: Aubry vs. Tai vs OneL – Aubry wouldn’t have to fear splitting the non-Michele vote as much, but there’s a risk of being seen as TeamTai or TeamWAMA(women’s alliance my…), so, come to think of it, maybe it’d be the easier scenario for OneL afterall.

      It goes Aubry, Tai, Michele:

      Neal: 98 – 1 – 1

      Nick: 35 – 10 – 55

      Debbie: 45 – 25 – 30

      Scot: 25 – 10 – 65

      Julia: 5 – 20 – 75

      Jason: 35 – 10 – 55

      Joe: 98 – 1 – 1

      Cydney: 47- 5 – 47

      So, while Aubrey would have two locks in Neal and Joe and is most likely to get Debb’s, I think Michele is the odds-on-favorite for 4 of the jurors here, with Cydney’s vote a toss-up. (If she gets voted out, it is by Aubry’s hand, if previews are any indication and logic applies. 1 percent is for Mark – there are some rumors about him making FTC, something unforeseen happening AND Cydney luuhves herself some chicken.)

      Then we’d either have Michele winning or your first-ever-tie at FTC. If then Tai were to break the tie, Aubry wins, no question.

      As you can see, an Aubry-Michele F2 would be likely to have the same outcome in my mind. But it gets really complicated if you throw Cydney in there.
      If you take Aubry out, I’d agree it’s probably a tie, too.

      • andythesaint

        I don’t think Michele has as good a shot at Jason and Scot’s vote as you. In fact, I don’t really see them voting for her at all (but I suppose it could happen). She basically wanted nothing to do with them post-sabotage.

        • Assistant Dragon Slayer

          I’m only predicting that Jason and Scot vote for Michele if the alternative is Tai and/or Cydney.

        • prettyboyprobst

          Yeah, my in-ears fell out in shock when I heard you counting Jason, Scot’s and especially Julia’s vote for Aubry on the podcast (pretty good one, otherwise. Made the best out of a shitty episode). We’ll see soon enough, but as I indicated above, I can see being aligned with Tai and bringing him to the finale as a serious malus for Aubry in their eyes.

          • Max_Jets

            Scot is tougher to read, but in Scot’s boot episode we heard Jason praising Aubry. They weren’t going to work together, but Jason has a ton of respect for her. Michele was also the most turned off by the sabotage, which Jason still prides himself in. I would be very surprised if he voted for Michele over Aubry, but anything is possible.

          • prettyboyprobst

            True, I forgot about that TC, so that should raise Aubry’s share a little bit. On the other hand, if it’s challenge strength that impresses Jason, Aubry better win one tonight, because she hasn’t so far.
            The sabotage turn off sounds like a good reason for Michele not to vote for Jason, not the other way around. But his comments on Aubry are enough for me to adjust it to 45(A) – 5(T) – 50(M), basically a toss up.

  • UseYourCommonSense

    Aubry has been edited as a crying, indecisive, mess. She is not winning. Also the Joe medivac screwed her over.

    I want Cydney to win but she has no chance.

    Michele 100% won Kaoh Rong.

    • andythesaint

      100%

      • UseYourCommonSense

        Fine, 99.999%.

        Because it hasn’t actually happened yet. 🙂

    • prettyboyprobst

      “Aubry has been edited as a crying, indecisive, mess. She is not winning.”

      That has been my impression of her edit for a little while, too. But then they turned her into the great white hope of Survivor, and I’m not sure anymore.

      I wish Cydney would win, but I don’t feel so great about her chances, either.

  • Kent McK

    So everyone is all in against the Michelle truthers. I admire the commitment, I hope that you are right, but I just don’t see it happening. I am rooting against Michelle til the bitter end, but I fully expect to see her stumble into a million dollars tonight.

    • Roswulf

      I actually don’t think any of the hosts are all in against Michele- I’d say Michele winning is considered reasonably likely by all involved.

      It’s the idea that Michele is the OBVIOUS WINNER that is being mocked. Because she isn’t. The season we’ve watched makes perfect sense if Aubrey wins, especially if Michele finishes second and/or makes a key move in the finale. It also makes perfect sense if Michele wins. And it KIND OF makes sense if Tai or Cyd win.

      There’s you know, actual tension heading into tonight, which is pretty cool.

      • Assistant Dragon Slayer

        And I’ll also note, while waiting for the finale to start on the west coast, that Dom and Colin (the leaders of the Michele Truthers as far as I can tell) said flat out in their last podcast that a) they DO NOT want Michele to win, and b) if someone else wins, they will own up to flat out reading the edit wrong without hand-waving about a decoy edit and whatnot.

  • DrVanNostrand

    1-Aubry
    2-Cydney
    3-Michele
    4-Tai

    I agree with Andy about what the remaining players think about Tai’s chances at the end. Michele truthers are crazy. Aubry and Cydney team up because they both think they can beat each other. Only Aubry is right.