Survivor Kaoh Rong Predictions Final Results

Final results of our season long game of predicting results. Ignore the last part.

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Predictions

Andy John Emma Mark Matt Readers
Eighteenth
Place
Alecia Alecia
Alecia Alecia Darnell  Alecia
Seventeenth
Place
Cydney Cydney
Cydney Alecia Alecia Alecia
Sixteenth
Place
Debbie
Joe Joe Liz
Joe Joe
Fifteenth
Place
Caleb
Caleb Neal
Caleb Caleb
Caleb 
Thirteenth
Place
Neal
Joe Nick
Nick Neal
Nick
Twelfth
Place
Peter
Joe Julia
Peter Peter
Peter
Eleventh
Place
Aubry
Nick Nick
Joe Joe
Joe
Tenth
Place
Cydney
Cydney Nick
Debbie
Michele
Nick
Ninth
Place
Julia
Michele
Scot
Tai
Michele
Scot
Eighth
Place
Aubry
Julia
Cydney
Cydney
Julia
Cydney
Seventh
Place
Julia
Julia
Julia
Julia
Julia
Julia
Sixth
Place
Joe
Jason
Tai
Tai
Cydney
Tai
Fifth
Place
Joe
Cydney
Joe
Joe
Michele
Joe
Fourth
Place
Tai
Cydney
Cydney
Cydney
Cydney
Cydney
Third
Place
Cydney
Tai
Michele
Tai
Michele
Tai
Second
Place
Michele
Michele
Tai
Michele
Tai
Michele
Winner Aubry
Aubry
Aubry
Aubry
Aubry
Aubry
Score 5-red 5-red
Preseason
Winner
Pick
Peter Michele
Jennifer
Michele
Peter Jennifer
Midseason
Winner
Pick
Tai Michele
Aubry
Michele
Tai Michele

Weekly Winner Pick

Here’s how our weekly winner’s predictions broke down for the whole season. It looks like the people who were on the Michele bandwagon early stayed on consistently, other than for the big week 10 Aubrious Winner’s Edit episode that shook their faith. We can argue about whether or not this silly exercise made us hyper-aware of all the Truthering out there, but it’s inarguable that it sure did let John build a fancy graph.

Kaoh Rong winner picks- final
Click image for full-sized view.

Medevac Scenario Game

Final score: Andy 4 John 3

Andy
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Andy

Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
Andy
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  • andythesaint

    I’ll say this for me: I sure can spot the easy ones. Sometimes.

    • Purplerockmatt

      I really let that awesome Darnell prediction go to my head and failed to follow it up at all

      • Other Scott

        Way late on this comment, but how I felt about you after the Darnell first boot is exactly the same as what I felt about the Michele truthers after she won.

        (That feeling was: How were they right? They made no sense in justifying their logic!)

        • Purplerockmatt

          again my logic was simple: african american cast members don’t tend to do well and I thought he seemed less of a fit than Cydney did

  • AubrysWinnersEdit

    Appreciate the shoutout

  • Mike Hirsch

    That really *is* a fancy graph.

    Did anyone happen to catch the Survivor Price Is Right thing? Spoiler alert: it was as terrible as you can imagine it being, but it did have the hilarious juxtaposition of having former Survivors who were CLEARLY going to be called down to Contestant’s Row (such as Boston Rob, Rupert, Cirie, Jeremy, Joe Anglim, Wentworth, Tina, Natalir Anderson, and…Woo) seated amongst a collection of THE MOST RANDOM SURVIVORS EVER (Mike from Samoa! Natalie T! …Wait, was that Tyler?). Truly a “wheat from the chaff” moment.

    • Alkanarra

      I didn’t watch it, but I can only hope Shane was there and didn’t get called down.

      • Mike Hirsch

        No Shane sightings here, but that would totally have been worth the whole show’s existence.

      • prettyboyprobst

        here’s a little “clip”, in case (you or) anyone is interested.

    • Other Scott

      There’s no need to …Woo, OK.

    • sharculese

      I thought it was good. It was a basic episode of Price but with people you like from Survivor standing there. My roommate who’s into Price (not the same one who got sucked into this season) enjoyed it a lot.

      • prettyboyprobst

        It’s “The Price is Right”, so it’s going to be terrible. That said, there were some truly hilarious and even exciting moments in there. Probst did pretty good, too.

        At one point I thought I saw Abi Maria’s Mom among the superfans (first or second row). Anyone able to confirm or deny?

        • I hope she was telling someone to “Focus” in Portuguese if she was there.

  • Other Scott

    I’m pretty sure I voted for Peter as my winner pick after Week 2.

    I think I lose all right to be taken seriously on this site.

    (But you aren’t taken seriously on this site, Scott)

    • Hornacek

      I gave up being taken seriously on this site long ago when I admitted my love for Samoa and Vanuatu.

      • Other Scott

        I don’t really understand why this site isn’t higher on Samoa. It’s a strategically fun season.

        • Hornacek

          To be fair, it is basically The Russel Hantz Show starring Russel Hantz and co-starting 17 other people. But what a ride.

        • Just to clarify: I actually like Samoa. It’s not my favorite season, but it’s definitely an interesting viewing experience- unlike, say, Redemption Island. It’s also a great season to remind viewers that just because someone makes interesting TV doesn’t mean that they’re well-liked by fellow players.

        • It’s not my favorite season but I definitely see the highlights as well as the lowlights.

  • Other Scott

    One other note: it’s kind of amazing that the only two players anyone thought had a legitimate chance of winning when they were voted out were Liz and Anna.

    • andythesaint

      It’s almost as if people took the (correct) idea to heart that if Probst isn’t excited about the season, it must mean that a woman won.

      • Other Scott

        On a related note, it was interesting to go on Reddit and see that most of the people who were the most aggressive Michele truthers were the ones who now have the little badge that indicates they picked her preseason.

        • Probably a coincidence.

          • I am just going to sit in my corner with my little 32 badge…

          • If I’d bothered to put in a winner pick, I would have had one of those badges as well. But I want my gold Shirin flair to stand alone.

          • You would have a gold Shirin flair.

          • They’ll have to pry it from my cold, dead hands. (Though I’ll be honest, I may be tempted by someone from the season 34 cast.)

          • I think I may know who based on the type that you like.

          • Feel free to guess. I’ll tell you if you’re correct. (Meaning you can try to guess the names I’d consider changing my Shirin gold flair for.)

          • Is it Hannah?

          • I said season 34!

          • Whoops…my bad! Is it John Cody?

          • Oh, that actually would be pretty cool. As long as they left off the last name. So yes, that I might do.

          • They probably would.

          • I could also see you going after a Penner/Varner/Cirie gold flair as well.

  • Ms. Sweaterfan

    I’ve been thinking a lot about this season since the finale (was it really only a week ago?!) and I have some reflections to share. (Disclaimer: I want to fully acknowledge that how we watch Survivor, as well as which seasons we like/dislike are totally personal and I’m not trying to badger anyone into my own views. Discussion and hearty disagreement is more than welcome!)

    First, I will note that even though Michele was my winner pick pre-season, I was never a Michele truther by any means. In fact, I read and generally agreed with the Edgic critique posted on this site. BUT, I really think that the anti-OWM sentiment here may have caused some viewers to go too far in the other direction, relishing in minimizing or dismissing anything that Michele did in the game, to the extent that when she won it came as both a shock and a huge disappointment, and ultimately tainted some fans’ opinion of the season as a whole. Again, see the disclaimer – liking/disliking a particular winner is also totally personal and people will feel how they’re going to feel. However, I would like to posit two items:

    1. Michele’s win did not come out of nowhere.

    I find it difficult to process the dueling statements of “Okay, the Edgic Michele Truthers had it right” and “The edit didn’t show us how Michele won.” I mean, what were Edgic-ers looking at besides the edit? Even setting aside some of the crazier bits of Edgic, Michele’s presence and generally positive edit season-long is certainly supportive of a Michele win. Further, I personally went into the finale rooting for Aubry and thinking she would probably win, but about halfway through I found myself thinking “wow, this is really the Michele show.” Going back to the penultimate episode (and possibly before?) her competitors were commenting that she was a jury threat since she hadn’t made anyone mad. If being called out as a jury threat, identified as the next target, and then winning your way to FTC isn’t winner edit material, I don’t know what is. Of course this isn’t to say that no one else had a plausible winner edit either. Aubry was definitely the other strong contender for the win, and if anything was missing from the season-long edit it was probably a bit more explanation of why the jury disliked her (or at the very least liked Michele more).

    2. Michele is a deserving winner.

    This is probably the part where people will really begin to disagree with me, but I don’t see anything wrong with Michele as a winner. I know that many superfans tend to root for the person with the strongest strategy, and often the person who dominated the game strategically, but a good social game IS strategy in many ways. The two obvious examples of this are All Stars and Samoa. Did B Rob and Russell run circles around the other players strategically in those seasons? Of course! But should they have expected the jury to happily award them a million dollars at the end when there was a more palatable player in the FTC to throw their vote at? In my opinion, no. We’ve also seen many winners use a good social game to bolster their great strategic game (off the top of my head: Cochran in Caramoan, Jeremy in Cambodia, Kim in One World, etc.). I can, of course, respect jurors who are willing to put their personal feelings aside and vote for the person they think was the strongest strategically, but I actually don’t always fault jurors for bitterness (although sometimes it’s clearly sour grapes, or just a performance for the cameras, in which case I’m not a fan). None of this is to say that Michele is the next Kim Spradlin, but if Aubry was alienating people and losing friends by making big moves while Michele was charming them and cementing friendships while making tiny game adjustments (and winning challenges) to stay in it, I don’t fault the jurors for voting for Michele. In terms of TV, an Aubry makes for a more entertaining show than a Michele, but I’m not mad at the overall story of this season.

    Anyway, those are my ruminations on the season. TL;DR I’m not an edgic-er, but I saw enough evidence to support the Michele win.

    • Black Dynamite

      I love reading your reflection of the season and found myself nodding along as I read. I absolutely agree that Michele is a deserving winner. I’m of the mindset that any winner is deserving of the title even if their game clashes with how I may view the attributes of a winning Survivor player. Total props to her for forming the relationships she did, winning important challenges late in the game and being apart of key decisions down the stretch. She should definitely wear the title proud.

      For me I was disappointed not in Michele winning, but the show’s way of presenting it (and my favorite, Cydney, not winning). I agree the win didn’t come out of nowhere. I was able to piece together how it happened and upon reflection key spots that clued me to a Michele victory. I just wished the show emphasized her areas of strength louder and more frequently. She felt like a background character in her own victorious journey. Natalie White had a stronger presence in Samoa and that season was Russell 24/7. Overall I enjoyed the season a lot. I have it just outside the top ten and Michele’s win doesn’t move it down at all.

      • prettyboyprobst

        upvoted for the first part and your undying love for Cydney, but I don’t necessarily think the show should have presented itself much differently. That may change over time or I could be convinced otherwise, but right now I think they did really good.

      • Even though I didn’t feel like we got a great narrative of how Michele won, I’m kind of glad they didn’t give her more screen time at the expense of more interesting stories/players. Can you imagine if they’d cut “Don’t check me, boo” so they could give us an underwhelming Michele confessional about how she talked to Cydney about voting out Nick? That would be a travesty.

    • Other Scott

      I don’t actually like the mindset of “the show has to justify the result, and by extension, the winner.” There’s nothing wrong from a storytelling perspective of the winner playing okay, but mostly being in the right place at the right time. That sometimes happens, and it doesn’t diminish my view at the season at all. It can be a little frustrating from a strategy focused view to say “sometimes strategy is a whole lot less important than luck” but that doesn’t keep that from being true as well. I understand people who prefer to be able to point to advantageous things the winner did that allowed them to win and will hold this season in lower regard because of that, but I’m not that person.

      I also don’t agree with, “It didn’t show why Aubry lost” as if the show was keeping something obvious from us. If there was easy rationale to why Michele got the votes at the end and Aubry didn’t, the show would make it clear. But there wasn’t an easy rationale. So instead of the show skewing our understanding and dishonestly portraying Michele as something she mostly wasn’t, and Aubry as something she mostly wasn’t, just give us what happened. We’re smart people, we’ll try to piece it together ourselves.

      • Ms. Sweaterfan

        You make a really good point that Aubry didn’t necessarily do anything that definitively lost her the game. Rather, Michele apparently just edged her out in the end (most likely by befriending the Julia-Scot-Jason jury bloc). This season may actually be the super close final that many of us have been wishing for (even though it wasn’t decided by a single vote). I can say I was genuinely shocked when Michele won. I haven’t felt that way in a finale for a long time, and I loved it.

        • I will say that even though the Truthers had been pushing it for so long, it still shocked me when Michele won. And the only reason I didn’t love it was because I’d been taunting the Truthers and knew I’d have to eat crow. (Well, that’s not the only reason. I legitimately wanted Aubry to win.)

    • Assistant Dragon Slayer

      Great stuff, Ms. Sweaterfan. There are a couple points I disagree about, but bear in mind that I almost completely agree with you.

      You said “I find it difficult to process the dueling statements of “Okay, the Edgic Michele Truthers had it right” and “The edit didn’t show us how Michele won.”” What tipped off the Truthers in the first place was that Michele was getting a lot of _superfluous_ airtime, so both of those statements can be true. I agree with your larger point, though–superfans will naturally focus on strategy and strategically minded players, and will therefore discount the social game and social-game-first players in relative terms.

      I think most would agree that whoever wins is by definition a “deserving” winner. The question is whether the winner is satisfying from a storytelling perspective, and I think that’s what a lot of people are unhappy about. Michele undoubtedly won mainly because of her social game, like Amber and Natalie White, but where the comparison doesn’t work is that Aubry was no All-Stars Boston Rob or Russell. It’s clear why they didn’t get the jury votes–they were total assholes to the jury! Aubry wasn’t.

      I think the problem was that Survivor, as a TV show, couldn’t present to the viewer the key reasons Michele won and Aubry lost. Without some kind of Big Brother-style 24/7 cameras, they couldn’t show Michele just talking to people, being level-headed and friendly, and putting them at ease amid the hardships and paranoia on the island. They also couldn’t show what was happening at Ponderosa, which in my opinion is where Aubry lost. If they could have shown Cydney’s Ponderosa video, for example, on TV it would have been clear that Aubry was in big trouble.

      I’ll add one other thing. I think it’s a little superficial to simply write off anti-Aubry jurors as “bitter”. Everybody is the hero of their own story. Take Scot, for example. In the tribal where he got voted out (the climax of the season as far as he’s concerned), Aubry should have gone home, either because of the super-idol, or because Tai took Julia’s bait and played his idol, which would have forced Scot to play his (Jason’s) idol. On top of that, Aubry was still in the game at that point only because of the Neal medevac. In addition, Scot was getting no new information about Aubry’s game from the jurors voted out after him (Julia and Jason were just as bitter and not allied with Aubry, Joe was next, and they froze out Cydney). Add it all up, and Scot is not completely unjustified in thinking that Aubry is in the finals because of pure dumb luck, just like Michele. None of which is to say that Scot voted “correctly” (he, Julia, and Jason should be ashamed of the way they treated Cydney), just that there’s more going on than bitterness.

      EDIT: And just as superfans favor strategy and therefore discount the social game, they also discount the role sheer dumb luck plays in determining who wins (unless it’s a winner they don’t like). Yes Michele was incredibly lucky (not going to tribal until day 20-something, etc.), but who had more luck than Tony?

      • Ms. Sweaterfan

        You make an excellent point about Ponderosa. I think that a big part of the story of the endgame took place there this season, and similarly people who went out early in the jury stage missed out on seeing a lot of Aubry’s dominance.

      • The Michele votes make more sense when you’ve seen the Ponderosa stuff, which of course they couldn’t show on the actual show. And your explanation for Scot in particular voting for Michele is an excellent one.

    • prettyboyprobst

      I’m still sifting my way through the liveblog and podcast threads (to get a better feeling which points have already been talked to death), so I don’t have much to add right now. Just wanted to quickly insert that I’m delighted that someone wrote this comment, as it sums up my feelings about some of the big talking-points of the season pretty good (ok, I wasn’t rooting for Aubry, but other than that I can agree with pretty much all of it and with many of the ensuing posts in reponse, too) and I couldn’t have said it better myself (or as good or as soon, for that matter) .

    • I love your comment, but I just want to clarify (as ADS and Other Scott already have to some degree) that our claim was never that Michele wasn’t featured in the edit. Our argument that her appearances didn’t seem to be part of a larger story. It’s sort of like if a sideline reporter won the NBA’s slam dunk contest; yes, she was there the whole time, but it didn’t seem like she was taking part in the action.

      • Ms. Sweaterfan

        Thanks! And I think that’s a fair rebuttal 🙂 The key element that many people were missing throughout the season was probably a clear explanation demonstrating exactly why Michele beat Aubry in the finals (whether presented as “why Michele won” or “why Aubry lost”). I personally felt like there was enough there in the finale for me to grab onto, but it was extremely low key and ultimately I can understand why it was unsatisfying to many. I also really enjoyed the surprise element of the final vote reveal, but I can understand why others didn’t.

        • But I was listening to another podcast’s recap this morning and I was reminded how bad Michele looked in the finale at camp. She could have prepped Cydney for fire but she told her to not worry about it. She was convinced that Aubry won the million after the fire-making challenge. There was another situation that I can’t remember, but I have never seen a winner look this “negative” in the season finale.

      • prettyboyprobst

        That’s a good point and possibly the one justifiable complaint about Michele’s edit not foreshadowing her win enough. If her exit interviews are to be believed, they could have shown her being tight with Cydney even pre-merge and plotting the Nick-boot long ahead, but they chose not to.
        That missed opportunity alone leads me to think they purposely made this season more about Aubry and to a lesser extent Tai, Cydney and Jason (and even Debbie) than its winner, and big-picture I applaud them for it, but it probably came at the cost of MIchele appearing not really connected to some of the events that build the story.