Survivor Kaoh Rong Week 10 Predictions and Poll

This should be a fun week for predictions, as the game seems to be in a potential fustercluck (heh, Mark the Chicken joke). Of course, we all know who the winner will be. That’s obvious.

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Medevac Scenario Game

death count survivor kaoh rong

This is it. The final week of our little game to ensure we don’t end in a tie. And also, because we’re running out of ideas. You decide the winner of the week, thus the winner of the season.

Who had the better week 9 evac scenario?

  • Andy: Joe's mind is literally blown by strategy discussions (75% Votes)
  • John: Julia's face is attacked by a duck while duckfacing (25% Votes)

Total Voters: 57

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Current score: Andy 3 John 3

Predictions

Andy: Now that the coast is clear to do so without the fear of facing a majority, Julia is ready to flip. After all, why challenge the guys and their idols when sticking with them gets you in the final five against two of the most beatable players anyway? So she brings in her friend what’s her name, and she even gets to pick her target: the woman who tried to vote her out pre-merge: Aubry.

John: Aubry, Cydney, Joe, and the rest of their alliance have to hope that they can get numbers on their side. So next week they get Julia and Tai on their side and split the vote between Scot and Jason. But Joe remembers Aubry’s plan to vote Julia last time and thinks that’s the plan this time. Jason plays his idol, and Scot/Jason/Joe vote Julia out of the game. (None of this will happen).

Emma: I really have no idea where the vote is going next week. This season has been interesting, but a total strategic clusterfuck. Seems unlikely that any of the guys will go home because they either share a super idol or are a total non factor (Joe). So I guess I’ll pick Cydney because the guys targeted her last time. I hope I’m wrong.

Mark: Prepping for another blindside this week. (Oh, and continuing my unlikely trend of backing the right horses on this site). I think Cydney‘s number is up. Remember the backfire comment? If Julia flips, Obvious Winner Michelle needs an obvious ally and has the potential to be swayed with the Super Idol out there. If Julia goes with the girls, they will likely get screwed in some fashion by an idol. And who will the guys keep targeting? Their old Brawn friend. The girls plus Joe would still have a 4-3 advantage, so flushing Idols now will be key.

Matt: So this seems like it could go two ways. The first way is that the girls could bite the bullet, vote against the guys, the superidol is played and the guys pick their target. In this case I’d say that Cydney is their target based upon last week’s vote. The other way it could go is that the girls don’t want to do this, because Cydney (and Aubry) don’t want to expose themselves to the possibility of being idoled out for the greater good (which is totally understandable). So instead they pick their target they want out from their own alliance. In this case, I think there are two choices. Either it is Julia who they were worried last week was a weak ally. But voting for Julia might land them in a 4-4 tie and that is non-ideal. The other choice is Joe. The reasoning behind Joe is this: Julia stays with you as it keeps advancing her position, and it doesn’t expose the people who are actually worried about being idoled out to a vote. The problem with voting out Joe is that it doesn’t solve the damn super idol problem! There is a third option: Tai is lured away from the guys and they just vote out Scot or Jason, but I don’t think that is happening now. And I don’t think the girls are willing to bite the bullet yet, so basically I am saying it will either be Joe or Julia and I’ll say… Julia.

Andy John Emma Mark Matt Readers
First
Elimination
Alecia Alecia
Alecia Alecia Darnell  Alecia
Second
Elimination
Cydney Cydney
Cydney Alecia Alecia Alecia
Third
Elimination
Debbie
Joe Joe Liz
Joe Joe
Fourth
Elimination
Caleb
Caleb Neal
Caleb Caleb
Caleb 
Sixth
Elimination
Neal
Joe Nick
Nick Neal
Nick
Seventh
Elimination
Peter
Joe Julia
Peter Peter
Peter
Eighth
Elimination
Aubry
Nick Nick
Joe Joe
Joe
Ninth
Elimination
Cydney
Cydney Nick
Debbie
Michele
Nick
Tenth
Elimination
Julia
Michele
Scot
Tai
Michele
Scot
Eleventh
Elimination
Aubry
Julia
Cydney
Cydney
Julia
question-mark
Score
Preseason
Winner
Pick
Peter Michele
Jennifer
Michele
Peter Jennifer
Midseason
Winner
Pick
Tai Michele
Aubry
Michele
Tai Michele

Who will be the next person eliminated from Survivor: Kaoh Rong?

  • Cydney (48% Votes)
  • Aubry (15% Votes)
  • Scot (13% Votes)
  • Julia (11% Votes)
  • Jason (5% Votes)
  • Tai (5% Votes)
  • Joe (2% Votes)
  • Michele (2% Votes)

Total Voters: 62

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Winner Prediction

We’ll keep this pointless exercise going for reasons.

Through week 9, who do you think will win Survivor: Kaoh Rong?

  • Michele (42% Votes)
  • Aubry (17% Votes)
  • Tai (15% Votes)
  • Cydney (12% Votes)
  • Julia (6% Votes)
  • Joe (3% Votes)
  • Scot (3% Votes)
  • Jason (2% Votes)

Total Voters: 65

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Who was the Week 9 MVP?

As suggested by commenter Roswulf, this might be the far more interesting discussion than trying to read tea leaves on the winner. So have it, who had the best week? Use whatever definition you want to make your vote. And comment below if you’d like to further the discussion.

Who was the Week 9 MVP?

  • Mark the Chicken (31% Votes)
  • Julia (30% Votes)
  • Cydney (11% Votes)
  • Tai (11% Votes)
  • Aubry (6% Votes)
  • Jason (3% Votes)
  • Joe (3% Votes)
  • Michele (3% Votes)
  • Scot (2% Votes)

Total Voters: 64

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Andy
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Andy

Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
Andy
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  • andythesaint

    I finally caved everyone. I voted Michele as the winner of the season.

    Hooray.

    • gouis

      OWM strikes again.

      • andythesaint

        I’ve mapped out her path to victory. It resembles this:

        • Other Scott

          Well, that’s pretty much her only path to victory at this point. It’s amazing that style of victory doesn’t happen more often. The only ones I can think of off the top of my head is Bob, Vecepia, and PI Sandra.

          • andythesaint

            It might be because people have largely stopped being as objectionable as Jason and Scot. So floaters get to the end against an aggressive player, only to realize that juries respect that when the person isn’t completely awful.

          • Assistant Dragon Slayer

            Chris and Aras too. Not in the sense that their opponents were too awful to win, but in the sense that they mostly stayed out of the way as everybody else wiped out.

          • Other Scott

            Aras’s win took maybe the least amount of skill of any Survivor player, so I understand where you are coming from on that one, though he was as large a presence as anyone in the game so it didn’t quite have that come out of nowhere aspect to it.

          • Max_Jets

            Agree on Sandra, but disagree on which season. Fabio and Amber would probably fit here too.

          • Other Scott

            Heroes vs Villains is a season Sandra went out and won, by forming bonds with all the heroes to the point she was going to win any final 3 with any combination of villains, she just needed someone to take her. Fabio won 3 straight immunities that if he had lost any of them he would have been voted out, but was likable enough to win almost any final 3 scenario, so that’s more of a Mike vs Axis of Evil World’s Apart case. Amber was part of a twosome that ran the game, so that’s a little different too.

          • Max_Jets

            We haven’t seen the endgame yet, but I could see your description of HvV Sandra not being far off of Michele. Sandra at F7 of PI was making bigger moves than most of the other players we’ve talked about, while she wasn’t as in control of her fate in HvV.

            EDIT: Amber I do think was an example of everyone else ruining their games, and her playing fine. I see your point on Fabio though.

          • Alycia Swift

            I’d add Natalie White.

          • Max_Jets

            I would exclude Nat for having been responsible for Erik’s boot at the merge and for wanting to go to the end sitting next to Russell.

          • sharculese

            Arguably Danni and Chris.

          • Other Scott

            Danni is a good argument, though Danni is more the equivalent of someone providing a push on those speed skaters to make them fall. Chris, I don’t see it. That was more the formation of a new alliance that Chris was a major part of, not really people self-destructing.

          • sharculese

            Huh, I would argue it actually goes the other way. There was at least some connective tissue among that tribe on Guatemala, whereas by the time we get to the Julie vote-off in Vanuatu, that alliance was a disaster waiting to happen. Twila and Scout didn’t like Ami and Julie, Ami and Julie didn’t care for Twila and Scout, and noooobody liked Eliza.

          • Other Scott

            I think there’s a difference between an alliance self-destructing and people destroying their own games.

          • Alycia Swift

            You said what I meant to – people destroying their own games.

          • Alycia Swift

            Not so much people self-destructing as pent up tension and some of the women’s either arrogance (Ami, Leanne) or hatred for each other finally (Twila, Scout v. Liza) finally bursting.

        • Violina23

          You earned an actual LOL for that one. Nicely played 🙂

    • Other Scott

      I feel like I switch my vote every week, but it will never land on Michele.

      Never. Even if the last week is a final 4 with her, Joe, Scot and Jason.

    • Violina23

      I did, but mostly (75%) to troll you.

      • andythesaint

        Won’t work anymore. I think it’s gonna happen.

        • Kemper Boyd

          It’s starting to make even more obvious sense with the (gasp) edit. Julia and Joe definitely not winning, I don’t think Scot can at all or Cydney, That leaves Tai, Kyle, Aubry and OWM. I think it’s between Kyle and OWM now.

  • gouis

    I think a Jason vs. Scot final 2 is heavily in play.

    • Purplerockmatt

      i’ve been warning people about this for weeks

      • Violina23

        I think we’re in denial that this might actually happen. I know I am.

        • DrVanNostrand

          Me too.

      • Diego Armando

        So have I.

    • Roswulf

      The only bright side to that is that I have to believe it would effectively kill the Yul/Tyler Perry/Super Idol for another ten seasons or so. This is the nightmare scenario- when the looming threat of an inescapable idoling effectively forecloses any sort of justice arc.

    • Kemper Boyd

      The easiest way for a woman to win is to sit with other women at the end. It seems obvious that the disliked men would realise the best way to be disliked and win is to sit next to someone equally disliked at the end.

    • Hornacek

      While this would be terrible, might it result in a great final tribal council, where most of the jury don’t ask questions and just go on and on telling the final two that they are awful, awful people? Or maybe someone telling Jeff “I have nothing to say or ask to either of them”.

  • Roswulf

    I’m not proud about how much time I spent agonizing over whether to give my MVP vote to Mark or Joe. Ultimately I just couldn’t go with Mark, given the secret scenes revealing that he’s becoming a target as Tai becomes less lovable to his tribemates. But man was it close.

    • andythesaint

      He’s only a target because they know what a threat he is.

  • Other Scott

    I couldn’t vote for Mark the Chicken on the off chance he was cannibalizing by eating the wrong parts of the Chinese takeout. I suspect he probably wasn’t, but I couldn’t take that risk in my MVP vote.

    • sharculese

      Plus you had to give it to Woo, right?

  • I voted for Mark. #Noregrets

    • Violina23

      He has the winner edit, how could I not?

      • Sylvisual

        OWM really stands for Obvious Winner Mark.

    • Hornacek

      I hope Mark comes to tribal this week.

  • Max_Jets

    Cydney for winner prediction and for elimination prediction, hoping for the former.

    • Kemper Boyd

      I respect this way of dealing with the voting.

  • Mike Hirsch

    I didn’t even notice Mark. I went for Julia for MVP. And, dammit, I’m sticking with Scot as my vote out candidate. I expect all kinds of continued craziness at tribal.

    • Side Character

      As the resident Julia fan here, I too had to pick her, but damn, Mark was really tempting me.
      I also hope for more tribal craziness.

  • DrVanNostrand

    I voted Michele across the board. She is the biggest target because she is the obvious winner. And she is the MVP because she said “I can’t believe this is finally happening!”, or “It’s about time!”, or something like that. It was very memorable and important.

  • Saturday Night Palsy

    I wonder which episode will show them finally eating Mark. I do think he’s got the best odds of any previous chicken to make it through alive.

    • sharculese

      Uh… Henrietta from Micronesia? They let her loose and then she just hung around camp anyway.

      • Saturday Night Palsy

        Haven’t seen that one yet. Was she more of a pet than Mark? He isn’t even on a leash anymore!

        • sharculese

          She was a pet to Chet who was long gone at that point. But towards the end of the season the Widows just decide to let the last of their chickens go free, and at that point she’s so used to being around people that she just sticks around.

          They may have eaten her at some point and it just didn’t get shown.

      • andythesaint

        Gloria. We’ve been researching.

        • sharculese

          I swear there’s a Henrietta at some point? Is it one of the chickens they do kill?

        • sharculese

          Figured it out, it’s one of the chickens from Australia.

      • DrVanNostrand

        Also, Juicy Jay from Second Chances. Although, depending on how you define “previous”, it may not count.

    • Hornacek

      If Tai gets voted out, expect Mark to be eaten the next episode.
      If Mark is eaten before Tai is voted out, expect Tai to seek revenge.

      • Saturday Night Palsy

        So maybe after they eat Mark, Tai rages against them. The next day he apologizes for his actions and cooks them dinner to show them that he still loves them. The gang says “no hard feelings” and tucks into the feast. “This is pretty good,” says Julia “What do you think Michelle? Michelle…?” The group looks around–no Michelle. “Oh my god, Tai! What are we eating?!?”

        BOOM! Third “medivac”.

        • Hornacek

          With Joe for dessert.

  • Ethan Kyle

    I want Michelle or Aubry … totally not because i’m bitter about pick 4 last week *Shifty eyes*

  • Diego Armando

    Are episode descriptions fair game for discussion? Because the one Comcast gave me does give me an idea for how the episode will go.

    • andythesaint

      Fair game, but it’s polite to start with a warning.

  • Ms. Sweaterfan

    I have a thought about the super idol, but it may be more of an idea for an interesting story (or wishful thinking?) than for actual strategy, so take it with a grain of salt. I think it’s possible that the super idol could be the downfall of the bully alliance. I just can’t see Jason actually using his idol on Tai when push comes to shove, and I’m also kind of doubtful that Jason and Tai would necessarily save Scot with the super idol were he to be the target. So, the only scenario in my mind where the super idol would actually be used would be if Jason were the target and he pressured Tai to contribute his half of the super idol (and even in that case, how does that benefit Tai at all?).
    From a viewer perspective, the women’s alliance (+Joe) should really go all in on Tai at the next TC with the hopes that he will save his personal immunity idol to be used as part of the super idol, rather than playing it before the votes are read, and that Jason will ultimately refuse to give up his own idol to save Tai after the vote. At that point they haven’t flushed Jason’s idol, but Tai may very well leave with his own idol in his pocket.
    I see this from two angles – first of all, Jason and Scot have been portrayed as bullies and villains all season, so it would be a very bizarre turn of events for them to end up saving a beloved alliance partner (Tai) with a selfless move. Also, blowing two idols on a single tribal council and then not even ending up with the majority for the following vote seems frivolous (of course this assumes that Julia is not a permanent member of the bully alliance).
    So anyway I guess my point here is that I see an angle where the bully alliance could put the preservation of the super idol ahead of actually using it to save their own alliance members, thus ultimately getting picked off one-by-one until the final 5. This is probably mostly fan fiction, because I just really can’t stand Jason and Scot.

    • andythesaint

      If the non-idol holders have their backs against the wall, this is what they’ll have to do. Take their shot and see if the other side actually plays their idols.

      The flaw in your theory is that Jason already did give his idol to Tai once. I don’t know how willing you’d be to suggest that he wouldn’t do it again. At a certain point in the game he might not (as it gets closer to the end and keeping Tai as a number is less necessary), but now? He needs to take control more than he needs to survive a theoretical vote.

      However, if the non-idol holders can work their social games enough, they might be able to convince one of them that playing an idol for one of the other two is no longer in their best interest.

      • Ms. Sweaterfan

        That’s a fair point about Jason handing his idol over to Tai. I sort of figured that Jason/Scot assumed that they were going to be the targets that night, so physically handing the idol to Tai was a bit of showmanship, but it still does show that they had trust in Tai that he would play the super idol if needed.

  • Diego Armando

    Potential spoilers from the episode description.

    According to the Comcast description. The contestants will choose to compete for love or the Advantage this week. The advantage (provided it works like Dan’s or Stephen’s) would likely eliminate the potential tie and give Julia absolutely no hesitation to flip when the men win it.