Survivor Kaoh Rong Week 12 Predictions and Poll

Yes, we already know who you’ll be voting for this week’s MVP. No, it doesn’t bother me.

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Medevac Scenario Game

Final score: Andy 4 John 3

Predictions

Andy: Everything points to Tai going home with an idol in his pocket. If he didn’t play it last week when he had all those worries, it’s hard to see what drives him to play it this week. So… let’s just say that Joe is medevaced instead.

John: Everyone votes for Tai (including Aubry, because she can’t make it look like she was in on the plan), and Aubry tells Tai in advance to play his idol. Then, for reasons that we definitely shouldn’t question, Tai takes out Jason with one vote.

Emma: As much as it saddens me to say, I think Tai will continue the trend of the extra vote being more trouble than it’s worth. He will play it, not realizing everyone has flipped on him already. Having hoped to save his idol for the last tribal council it can be used during, he’ll instead go home with an idol in his pocket.

Mark: Uh oh, Aubry is crying in the previews, so that means one of two things: It’s really hot and she wants to go home, or Mark the Chicken died. Nah, it probably just means she’s going to have to blindside Tai. You know he’s going to use his idol at final 5, so if you don’t take him out now, you’re crossing all your fingers and toes he doesn’t win another challenge. The only other blindside left is Cydney, but I think she’s solid enough to last through this vote. So yeah, Tai goes, and the F5 reward challenge gets a live chicken dinner with drinks courtesy of America’s tears.

Matt: Cydney goes home.  She tries to turn on Tai, Aubry resists, Cydney forces her to make a decision, and Aubry, Tai, Joe, and Michele vote out Cydney.  Basically Cydney overplays her hand with regards to Aubry and Aubry forced into a decision decides that Cydney is more of a threat than an ally (and she isn’t wrong about this!)

Andy John Emma Mark Matt Readers
First
Elimination
Alecia Alecia
Alecia Alecia Darnell  Alecia
Second
Elimination
Cydney Cydney
Cydney Alecia Alecia Alecia
Third
Elimination
Debbie
Joe Joe Liz
Joe Joe
Fourth
Elimination
Caleb
Caleb Neal
Caleb Caleb
Caleb 
Sixth
Elimination
Neal
Joe Nick
Nick Neal
Nick
Seventh
Elimination
Peter
Joe Julia
Peter Peter
Peter
Eighth
Elimination
Aubry
Nick Nick
Joe Joe
Joe
Ninth
Elimination
Cydney
Cydney Nick
Debbie
Michele
Nick
Tenth
Elimination
Julia
Michele
Scot
Tai
Michele
Scot
Eleventh
Elimination
Aubry
Julia
Cydney
Cydney
Julia
Cydney
Twelfth
Elimination
Julia
Julia
Julia
Julia
Julia
Julia
Thirteenth
Elimination
Joe
Jason
Tai
Tai
Cydney
question-mark
Score
Preseason
Winner
Pick
Peter Michele
Jennifer
Michele
Peter Jennifer
Midseason
Winner
Pick
Tai Michele
Aubry
Michele
Tai Michele

Who will be the next eliminated player on Survivor Kaoh Rong?

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Winner Prediction

That was fun one week blip. It will not save you.

Through week 11, who do you think will win Survivor: Kaoh Rong?

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Who was the Week 9 MVP?

Let’s get this over with.

Who was the episode 11 MVP?

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Andy
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Andy

Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
Andy
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  • I have no clue what is going to happen….and I love it, except for when it could hurt me in Pick 4.

    • Ethan Kyle

      I love it when i could hurt you in pick 4 as well (For the record I know i’m completely fucked at this point and am just sticking to character

      • I don’t know what my character is. Am I the Tai of the Pick 4 league where I just luck into things?

    • Violina23

      In the past seasons, the fantasy league has made the episode more exciting, but my team is doing SOOO bad, I can’t really care about it anymore. I’m having WAAY more fun over analyzing the edit with you all fine folks

  • Diego Armando

    I think that Aubry is crying about Joe. He is likely the only person who could get that level of reaction out of her.

    • I think we have been getting that since Day 1. Think back to the scene in the premiere where Joe is telling her that it gets better as it gets closer to the end. The editors have been setting us up a while for the fact that they will be the last 2 Brains, but we just didn’t think that the oldest guy out there and the girl who had a nervous breakdown on Day 2 would be the last two of their tribe.

      • Diego Armando

        They have also been together the entire game. I think the Joe evac will hit her hard.

        • Yeap! I know some people said that they would have mentioned the medevac, but I don’t know about that, especially if it is something who is a nonentity like Joe.

          • Mike Hirsch

            In fact, I’d go so far to say that if Joe was a medevac, the way they promo’d this episode would be exactly how they’d frame it.

            The only thing against it is, have you seen the preview for the immunity challenge? It doesn’t look super taxing, physically. But then again it could have nothing to do with the challenge.

          • I go back to Jeff’s opening narration which set up Caleb and Neal’s medevacs but also mentions how “just breathing would be a hard task”. I will try to look for the exact quote, but he could just pass out at camp.

          • Roswulf

            Based on last week, Joe lacks the energy to spin a wheel randomly and untie a key. I think the daily grind of heat, hunger, and dehydration will be anough to wear Joe down.

          • In Joe’s defense, I think that was more about not having the energy to swim back out and look at the numbers and pictures again. But yes, I imagine hydration and hunger probably wear down a 70+ year old faster than someone in his 20s or 30s.

          • Here’s the exact quote: “And if they last long enough, merely exerting energy will become their biggest obstacle”.

          • Mike Hirsch

            Yeah, so it’s probably nothing to do with a challenge, and more just, I suppose failure to thrive is one way to put it.

          • Mike Hirsch

            Well played. 🙂

          • Thanks. I always wanted to do that!

          • Mike Hirsch

            My wife, baby and I were at the beach in March, and some fortuitous photo snaps led me to make the following:
            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ac54bcb5868988dc6d061c5c4c23c134e749b0e9ebf2c24816cd387c94546d31.jpg

          • First of all, nicely done! Second of all, your baby is adorable.

          • Violina23

            DItto!

          • Mike Hirsch

            Thanks! (Also I was admittedly super-excited to have a legitimate opportunity to share both a picture of my kid and the CSI Miami meme here, so, I’m glad that dovetailed together so nicely.)

  • turgid_legume

    It’s gotta be the Joe medevac week, right? I certainly hope it is, because the later it happens the more of a disrupting killjoy it will be.

  • Hornacek

    No one predicted OWM is going home this week? I am shocked.

  • Hornacek

    Would it be too much to ask for you to add Mark to each of these polls?

    • Purple Rock Emma

      Yes. We are nothing if not lazy.

      • Hornacek

        Boo!!!!!

    • Violina23

      I admit…… I looked for it 😉

      • Hornacek

        Mark for the MVP!

  • Mike Hirsch

    I decided to look at what some of the edgic folk are talking about at this point. I am in no way an edgic person, but holy hell. You’ve got Michele supporters talking about her “fantastic” edit (I think they are using the wrong word, and should be using “existing,” but again, not an edgic person) and how it means she wins basically because she’s featured when she doesn’t need to be, and predicting that the reason Aubry would lose will be because the jury members who would give her their votes will all somehow be strategically removed from the final tribal.

    I mean, yes. If that were to happen, then Aubry would indeed have a hard time winning. Despite these Nostradamus-like prophecies laden with doom, I am sticking with Aubry as my winner, and am picking Michele to go home when Jason wins immunity and the rest of the gang looks at each other and is like, “Oh, Michele. Of course.”

    • Other Scott

      The edit is not good for Michele. If the edit was “good” we wouldn’t be wringing our hands over the potential of such an unimpressive winner.. The argument seems to be that the edit is the best possible one they can give her which I have my doubts about, but I’m willing to admit is a possibility.

      But anyone who calls Michele’s edit better than Aubry’s is being ridiculous. The difference is that for a lot of people, the visibility of Michele only makes sense if she wins whereas Aubry should be getting this edit regardless. Which, OK then.

      • Mike Hirsch

        I don’t really agree with those people. I think it would have been very easy to give Aubry a mostly Julia-like edit.

  • Other Scott

    Things I’m cheering for:

    1. Aubry to win.

    If that can’t happen, then:
    2. The doomsday scenario plays out exactly, except Jason gets votes from Scot, Nick, Neal, Tai, Julia and Joe to beat Michele in a final 2. The internet collectively explodes.

    • andythesaint

      And we realize that people were probably spoiled about Michele reaching the finals.

      • Roswulf

        And we realize that the source of those spoilers…was Mark.

        • Sylvisual

          I hope you’re talking about the chicken!

      • Other Scott

        It just scares me how likely the doomsday scenario is. Tai has been getting “This guy’s about to go home with an idol” quotes, and Joe seems like a walking med-evac at this point. That reduces Aubry’s numbers and allows for her to be overthrown by Cydney as the biggest threat, or to lose a final 3 challenge and not be taken. Voila, Jason Michele F2.

        • andythesaint

          You and me both buddy.

          • Other Scott

            Really, though, if Aubry turned against Tai and tried to vote him out tomorrow it would be the biggest mistake of the game. I feel like Aubry is too smart for this. And as long as Jason, Michele or Cydney go, Aubry’s chances of winning skyrocket.

      • Alkanarra

        I’m holding out that their hypothetical spoilers (which, seriously, why?) are clever midirection spoilers leaked by production to play mind games on the fanbase instead of, you know, the obsessive over-analysis of Twitter accounts and not-supposed-to-be-released photos. Basically I hope we’re all being trolled by Probst & co.

        • andythesaint

          I’m hoping that production did nothing, the editors did nothing, and all of this was a complete invention of overzealous fans. I still contend that she really hasn’t been as present as people suggest. I want Probst to give interviews at the end of the season where someone asks a bunch of questions about Michele because of Truthers and he’s all “why are you asking about her?”

          • DrVanNostrand

            No way! She’s been an inescapable (and inexplicable) presence! Her story has just been ‘subtle’. So ‘subtle’, that this would be the most ‘subtle’ winner edit of all time. So ‘subtle’, that if you weren’t aware of the internet Survivor community, the natural response to the claim that she’s the obvious winner would be, “Her?”

    • Diego Armando

      I am all aboard the Jason beats Michele in a final 2 scenario, if only because Jason actually did stuff and was an additive presence to the season.

      • Roswulf

        I’m very anti-Jason, even against Michele. I don’t think he was an additive presence to the season. Especially in the season’s first third he made the Season actively unpleasant for me to watch.

        If future contestants are encouraged to behave like Jason, I’m going to stop watching the show sooner rather than later. If future contestants are encouraged to act like Michele? Eh. Every season has a Michele.

    • DrVanNostrand

      I’ve got three words for you: Zero Percent Club

  • SpicyMayoJaySimpson

    Without getting into potential blindsides and such, wouldn’t it be better for Tai to play his idol at 6 and double vote at 5? The extra vote carries more weight when there’s fewer people, whereas the idol keeps the same effect

    • Other Scott

      No, the double vote basically has no effect at 5 unless it is used to form a 3-2-1. All it can do is take a vote from 3-2 to 3-3, which isn’t all that helpful.

      Even if it can be used on a revote, which I don’t think it can, all it’s doing is triggering a rocks scenario that most people try to avoid at 6 anyways.

      • Max_Jets

        It could be useful for a 2-2-2 where a majority of 3 split votes, but that probably doesn’t matter in this season.

  • Ms. Sweaterfan

    Two thoughts:
    1. Emma’s scenario is one I hadn’t thought of before, but it seems extremely plausible.
    2. I’m actually getting excited for an Aubry win (cue Aubry’s boot in 3…2….1…..)

  • Assistant Dragon Slayer

    I think all five of the PRP crew are partially correct: Everyone will attempt to blindside Tai (Emma’s scenario), but Aubry only reluctantly, and tearfully, agrees (Mark’s scenario) after some strong-arming by Cydney (Matt’s scenario). But then Aubry realizes that as long as Tai’s in the game, the target is off her, so she secretly tells Tai to use his idol (John’s scenario). But we never find out who Tai would have booted because Joe collapses at the voting podium and gets medevaced (Andy’s scenario).

  • prettyboyprobst

    Emma’s scenario is pretty much what I came up with for this episode (actually had to come up with, as I need Tai to go this week for another fantasy league): Everybody but Aubry turns on Tai, but she thinks she still has Joe at least. Tai tells her about the extra vote and they think they’re golden but instead he goes out 4:3 (a stolen vote would have won the vote, leading to the evolution of the advantage).
    Aside from that, I’m really worried about Cydney this week. That’s another reason why I needed to imagine something more elaborate.

    Bonus crazy medevac prediction: On the way back to camp Joe succumbs to Aubry’s death stare and collapses seemingly unprovoked.

    • DrVanNostrand

      “Everybody but Aubry turns on Tai”…. PHRASING!!

      • prettyboyprobst

        Oops, my bad.

        I felt pretty good about this scenario up until the IC or thereabout, though.