Survivor Kaoh Rong Week 3 Predictions and Poll

Now that we’re two episodes into Survivor: Kaôh Rōng, I’m sure we’ve got all this stuff figured out. The predictions are a mere formality at this point.

pr_predictionsbnr_s32

Andy: While I do think there’s heat between Joe and some of the youngs, it’s hard to shake the idea that the tribe is just humouring Debbie until the first opportunity to get rid of her. Since I went with the easy pick with Brains, for Brawn I’ll stick with the odder choice of Cydney. If you’ve gone this far goat farming Alecia, why give up now? For Beauty, we haven’t really had any hints of any dissent or strategy, so we’re basically just going off the fact that Nick has been pretty invisible. Which might be enough.

John: If the Brains can avoid tribal council for one more round I think the dynamic will shift, but right now it’s early enough in the game that if they have to lose a member they might send Joe packing. If he’s butting heads with Neal and Liz, that might be all it takes. We haven’t seen much of Nick, but I think if it’s his time to go this week they could quickly build him an exit story, just like they did with Jenny last week. They have to stumble upon the right choice by accident at least once, right? And Alecia is the right choice to vote out. Not as right as it would have been on day 3 or day 6, but still the right choice.

Emma: For Brawn, Alecia. I mean, it has to happen eventually right? For Brains, I know a lot of people are out on Liz, but I think at the very least Neal and Peter will stick with her. Would Aubry really risk going to rocks for Joe and Debbie? I doubt it. And Debbie is already being eyed as a goat. So Joe. For Beauty, now that Caleb and Tai are BFFs, it looks like Nick is the odd one out.

Mark: For Brains, Debbie is the easy answer at this point, but she’s basically turning into the child of Coach and Abi, so I don’t see her going just yet. Instead, I think last week was the first inkling of a Liz downfall. ​Until we see Beauty actually have conflict, I’m going to say Nick. Caleb won’t let his work wife be axed so soon (unless he falls off another tree). ​For Brawn, I think it’s ​finally Alecia, but only because when they hunt for the idol, they’ll run into her, injure her, and make her more useless than she already is.

Matt: People are annoyed by Debbie, but annoyance is easy to overlook if you outright dislike someone, and I think cranky Joe is building up a group of people that will be happy to boot him because they actively dislike him, whereas Debbie just annoys them. For Brawn, WHO KNOWS. This tribe will not do the obvious thing so I can’t say Alecia, and Cydney seems too obvious as the alternative. Scot won’t turn on Jason, but maybe Jason will turn on Scot? I have no idea, so i’ll just throw up my hands and say Alecia. Maybe by doing the obvious when we don’t expect it they will continue their reign of unpredictability. For Beauty, it’s Nick. Because it ain’t a girl, and Tai and Caleb seem tight, that leaves pretty boy Nick on the outside. That said I can see a scenario where the group targets Tai or Caleb because they seem tight, to break up the couple. But I’ll stick to the idea of greater tribe unity and say Nick.

Andy John Emma Mark Matt Readers
First
Elimination
Alecia Alecia
Alecia Alecia Darnell  Alecia
Second
Elimination
Cydney Cydney
Cydney Alecia Alecia Alecia
Third
Elimination:
Brawn
Cydney
Alecia Alecia Alecia Alecia question-mark
Third
Elimination:
Brains
Debbie
Joe Joe Liz
Joe question-mark
Third
Elimination:
Beauty
Nick Nick Nick Nick Nick
 question-mark
Score 0-red 0-red 0-red 0-red 1-green 0-red
Preseason
Winner
Pick
Peter Michele
Jennifer
Michele
Peter Jennifer

So there you have it. Make your picks below and don’t be afraid to give your explanation in the comments. We can be wrong together!

If Brawn goes to Tribal Council next, who will be eliminated?

  • Alecia (57% Votes)
  • Cydney (24% Votes)
  • Jason (14% Votes)
  • Scot (6% Votes)

Total Voters: 72

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If Brains goes to Tribal Council next, who will be eliminated?

  • Joe (42% Votes)
  • Debbie (26% Votes)
  • Liz (21% Votes)
  • Neal (4% Votes)
  • Peter (4% Votes)
  • Aubry (3% Votes)

Total Voters: 72

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If Beauty goes to Tribal Council next, who will be eliminated?

  • Nick (66% Votes)
  • Tai (27% Votes)
  • Anna (3% Votes)
  • Caleb (1% Votes)
  • Julia (1% Votes)
  • Michele (1% Votes)

Total Voters: 71

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Through week 2 poll: Who will win Survivor: Kaoh Rong?

  • Michele (38% Votes)
  • Anna (14% Votes)
  • Liz (12% Votes)
  • Peter (9% Votes)
  • Neal (7% Votes)
  • Alecia (5% Votes)
  • Caleb (4% Votes)
  • Julia (3% Votes)
  • Jason (3% Votes)
  • Joe (1% Votes)
  • Nick (1% Votes)
  • Aubry (1% Votes)
  • Tai (1% Votes)
  • Debbie (0% Votes)
  • Cydney (0% Votes)
  • Scot (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 74

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Medevac Prediction Game

death count survivor kaoh rong

Now on to the important stuff. Every week on the podcast (until it stops being fun), John and I will attempt to figure out how Survivor: Kaoh Rong will live up to its hype as the “Most Brutal Season Ever” by posting scenarios on who could get medevaced and how. It’s up to you to decide who had the better answer.

(If you haven’t listened to the podcast yet, you can correct that injustice by going here).

Who had the better week 2 medevac scenario?

  • John: Caleb concussed after turning gay. (59% Votes)
  • Andy: Nick is henpecked out of the game. (41% Votes)

Total Voters: 56

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Current score: Andy 1 John 0

Andy
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Andy

Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
Andy
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  • Other Scott

    I can’t explain it, but I have a bad feeling about Neal this episode. Maybe it’s been because the last two seasons every boot has been way out of centre field.

    • Kemper Boyd

      Me too.

    • Kemper Boyd

      I will expound on the very short comment I made late last night. I am starting to feel that Peter sees the value in keeping a mad woman like Debbie who shouldn’t have the opportunity or skill to flip vs the sensible, analytical Liz or Neal. So Peter could go with the olds and Aubry if that is an option. I think Peter and Neal both think of themselves as alphas and could struggle to work together long term.

      • Other Scott

        That sounds perfectly plausible. I’m sure the show will give us a better reason just as a “story” and have Neal collapsing in some way though.

  • corndogshuffle

    Beauty tribe is too perfect… I think they won’t lose someone in a challenge, but will be the first to get hit by the medevac.

    I know real life isn’t interested in stories and will take out whoever it wants whenever it wants to, but in a season of apparent death and despair, this feels like something that would happen.

  • Mike Hirsch

    I’m picking Alecia, again, because unless she wins, then dammit, one of these times I will be right.
    Joe for Brains, because the show spent enough time last week pointing out all the things Joe screwed up around camp to make his exit a logical one, and seeing as how the Brains are all about logic…and I’m probably giving the editors too much credit on that one.
    Nick for Beauty, because everyone else was picking him and I want to be popular.

    • Kemper Boyd

      I’d suggest to you it’s far far more likely she comes 2nd or 3rd and you are never right.

      • Mike Hirsch

        Son of a….

        • Kemper Boyd

          didn’t think of the epic goat scenario did ya?

          • Mike Hirsch

            I never think of the epic goat scenario!

  • Alycia Swift

    I’m not in your fantasy league but I’m going to pick anyway.

    For Brawn, Cydney even though so far I actually like her sort of. I am actually rooting for Alecia now — not because I have a different spelling of the same name — but because she has been so devalued by Jason and to some extent Scot. I would just like her to outlast him and Scot. The idol search seems mad and it would be just desserts if Alecia found the idol despite what looked like Jason knocking into her (purposefully?). After that, she’s protected if they lose so I don’t see the two men breaking up unless Jason gets it in his head that Scot already has money and decides to stick with Cydney.

    For Brawn, Joe because I think Debbie’s nuttiness will cause him issues. She’ll get protected somehow. Although, I don’t think it will be a medivac. If there’s a medivac, Liz. Its time for a female to get taken out that way. The only reason I say that is if I recall he previews one of the voices of someone who got hurt was a woman. (I think only one woman was taken out by medical (Kourtney Moon for breaking her wrist the first day)) and one quit (Dana for a stomach illness). I can’t recall any other women leaving for medical reasons. The rest of the quits for medical reasons or taken out by medical people leaving the game have been guys.

    For Beauty, on the small chance that tribe goes, Nick. Just because.

  • tocantins

    I’ve picked Jason for the Brawn because he sort of screwed Scot, which was his only true ally, and Cydney and Alecia already showed themselves willing to take him out. (But I don’t think that Brawn will lose again.)

    For Brains I go for Joe, I think they were setting him up to fall since Episode 1, with the old/young divide (and there are only 2 older players). For Beauty, I say Tai. Although he seems close to Caleb, this is a game, and affinities mean little when the person is on the bottom; Caleb is not going to risk his neck for Tai, neither is anyone else in that tribe.

    • Kemper Boyd

      I love the Brains old/young divide because Liz who is the youngest Brain is the 4th oldest woman on the cast. In fact Neal and Peter are the 4th and 5th oldest men in the cast.

  • Saturday Night Palsy

    I think that you’re both wrong on the medivac call. It’s going to be Joe after he gets mauled by a jungle cat. It very well could’ve turned fatal, but thanks to Debbie’s previous experience working as a lion tamer she’ll be able to soothe the savage beast before things go too far.

    • Kemper Boyd

      I imagine Liz will knock together a chair using her kindergarten crafting skills to help Debbie with the Lion.

    • Roswulf

      Some people are just naturally tastier to jungle cats than others, how was Debbie to know that after she threw a bunch of rocks at the Jungle Cat it would try to eat Joe? She could tell just be looking at it that it was tame.

    • Mike Hirsch

      After a tribe swap, Jason asks Liz to define love, and she cannot compute and shuts down. The medical team accidentally medivacs Alecia because she is sitting next to Liz at the time with her usual vacant look and they think she’s the broken one.

      • Damn. I legitimately had a Liz robot scenario all ready to go for this week’s podcast. Oh well. I’ll try to think of something different.

        • Mike Hirsch

          Go for it, I won’t say anything.

  • Roswulf

    I’m very amused by the strong reader consensus behind Michele, who has gotten so little narrative attention. I’m not arguing against it- Michele totally COULD win- but it shows how much the first two episodes focused on trainwrecks rather than setting up heroes. A blank slate is looking pretty good right now.

    Along those lines, a brief tier listing of the players, considering ONLY their chance of winning, and divining mostly from edit. I’m going to try try to do this every week, as an experiment in seeing when the season-long narratives start to crystallize.

    Tier, Eh Why Not?
    1. Anna: First for no particular reason- I wouldn’t argue against putting any of the top seven here
    2. Neal: Seems to be more of a narrator than Peter.
    3. Peter: Very well positioned in Brains, possible target if ever down in numbers.
    4. Caleb: Downgraded for being an apparent threat, despite having a very positive edit.
    5. Michele: The most invisible of the top tier
    6. Liz: The easiest of the top tier to see as a third boot- though her time this episode could also easily be read as the beginning of a winner’s edit.

    Tier Obvious Obstacles to Overcome
    7. Aubrey: Hints of annoying, hints of physical weakness
    8. Tai: Lovable, but doesn’t seem to really grasp Survivor. To make a racist comparison to older Asian men past, I think he’s more Cao Boi plus charisma than he is Yau Man.
    9. Julia: So very young

    Tier Brawn
    10. Alecia: Well, she’s getting an arc. She went from social trainwreck and useless outcast to Firestarter who handled tribal very well. And maybe the arc continues, and continues, and continues…on the other hand, she’s the likely next boot on a trainwreck tribe.
    11. Scott: People seem to like him, and he’s been central to the season. He’s also an obvious target likely to be down in the numbers at some point, and a jerk.

    Tier Invisible in a Bad Way:
    12. Cydney: I actually think she’s in a good position game wise- but we’ve seen lots of Brawn, and no attempt at all to make it her story. Even Natalie got more in the opening episodes.
    13. Nick: Invisible in a tribe with well-defined social bonds among the other five players. Obvious boot candidate
    for next week

    Tier Nope
    14. Kyle: Historically bad social game. Major character who may go far…but winning is unlikely
    15. Joe: Confirmed as cantankerous old crank, and not in a lovable Rudy way.
    16. Debbie: A spectacularly annoying woman edited to appear spectacularly annoying. One point of caution- they are choosing not to shame her for the water testing fraud, even when she set them up so beautifully to mock her. I think this is the positive, but kooky version of the Debbie edit. But a positive, but kooky edit is not the same thing as a winner edit.