Survivor Kaoh Rong Week 4 Predictions and Poll

As mentioned on the podcast, most predictions this week both from us and those voting in the poll will be derived from information released by CBS that some may deem “spoilery” (or at the very least, “making the episode less fun to experience”). So if you want to avoid that sort of thing, maybe skip the post this week.

pr_predictionsbnr_s32

Medevac Scenario Game

death count survivor kaoh rong

Bumping this to the top to give you more time to avoid spoilers. Every week on the podcast (until it stops being fun), John and I will attempt to figure out how Survivor: Kaoh Rong will live up to its hype as the “Most Brutal Season Ever” by posting scenarios on who could get medevaced and how. It’s up to you to decide who had the better answer. (Here’s hoping neither of us is right this week!)

(If you haven’t listened to the podcast yet, you can correct that injustice by going here).

Who had the better week 3 medevac scenario?

  • John: Debbie is the victim of a red herring (59% Votes)
  • Andy: Unvaccinated Anna catches Japanese Encephalitis (41% Votes)

Total Voters: 54

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Current score: Andy 1 John 1

Predictions

No prediction explanations this week, since some of them boil down to “my frame by frame analysis suggests this is the most likely candidate”, and that’s no fun. Plus, we gotta bigger and better things to prepare for this week (stay tuned).

Andy John Emma Mark Matt Readers
First
Elimination
Alecia Alecia
Alecia Alecia Darnell  Alecia
Second
Elimination
Cydney Cydney
Cydney Alecia Alecia Alecia
Third
Elimination:
Brains
Debbie
Joe Joe Liz
Joe Joe
Fourth
Elimination:
Medevac

Caleb
Caleb Neal
Caleb Caleb
 question-mark
Score 0-red 0-red 0-red 1-green 1-green 0-red
Preseason
Winner
Pick
Peter Michele
Jennifer
Michele
Peter Jennifer

So there you have it. Make your picks below and don’t be afraid to give your explanation in the comments. Unless you’re actually spoiled, rather than just possibly-preview spoiled. Then just don’t.

Who will be the next eliminated player on Survivor Kaoh Rong?

  • Caleb (52% Votes)
  • Nick (17% Votes)
  • Joe (13% Votes)
  • Neal (6% Votes)
  • Peter (4% Votes)
  • Alecia (4% Votes)
  • Jason (2% Votes)
  • Julia (2% Votes)
  • Debbie (0% Votes)
  • Michele (0% Votes)
  • Cydney (0% Votes)
  • Aubry (0% Votes)
  • Anna (0% Votes)
  • Scot (0% Votes)
  • Tai (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 48

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Through week 3 poll: Who will win Survivor: Kaoh Rong?

  • Michele (37% Votes)
  • Anna (25% Votes)
  • Neal (12% Votes)
  • Tai (10% Votes)
  • Aubry (4% Votes)
  • Scot (2% Votes)
  • Peter (2% Votes)
  • Julia (2% Votes)
  • Alecia (2% Votes)
  • Jason (2% Votes)
  • Cydney (2% Votes)
  • Debbie (0% Votes)
  • Nick (0% Votes)
  • Caleb (0% Votes)
  • Joe (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 51

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Andy
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Andy

Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
Andy
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  • Violina23

    The gender seemed pretty obvious from the person’s bathing suit… and some of the concern faces ruled out others.

    This one looked pretty bad, though…. I’m going to go through the entire episode filled with dread. Which,PRODUCERS, is not how I like my Survivor 🙁 🙁

    • sharculese

      One of my fears for this season is that we’re getting a replay of Africa, where, even as interesting stuff happens, it’s hamstrung by how much of the show is people with no energy sitting around being miserable.

      • Violina23

        Africa falls in the pocket of seasons I didn’t see, but it looked brutal 🙁

        • corndogshuffle

          I liked that cast so much, but they really did go overboard on the “survival” aspect of the show. They were literally forced to drink out of an elephant toilet.

          • sharculese

            The poop water thing is bad, and it sounds like probably affected the outcome of the show, but on the show it never comes off as the worst part. The scene late in the season where they go down to the poop water to take a bath is one of the most joyous things that happens, and I think part of it is that they got to leave the boma.

            The stuff where they’re trapped in the boma with no shade and nothing to do are way worse. I remember watching the scene where Lex makes the ‘uber-spoon’ and thinking “oh no, these people are going straight up insane.”

          • andythesaint

            Expecting dehydrated strangers to build a lion-proof shelter was also a dick move.

          • sharculese

            Also it sounds like they didn’t think to explain to them how serious the lion problem was, and then got mad at them for not figuring it out on their own.

          • andythesaint

            And most of their anger was because the contestants were putting production staff’s lives in danger.

          • Hornacek

            So you’re saying those players weren’t … wondering where the lions are?

            I’ll show myself out.

    • In defense of the producers, they kind of have to show what went down. It’s going to be relevant to the story.

      • Violina23

        Yes, but the repeated emphasis in every commercial or promo still gives the impression that they think the audience loves this kind of drama. Nothing about the general American tv audience suprises me these days, but watching people almost die on an unscripted tv game show doesn’t “get me off” 🙁

        • sharculese

          They’re maybe overdoing it, bu I would still rather have them do this than build us up to a barn-burner of a tribal council and then yank the rug out like they did with the Julie McGee quit.

          At least we know what we’re getting.

        • andythesaint

          The fear is that they’re doing this because it’s all they’ve got.

    • sweaterfan

      This whole medevac thing has been causing me such anxiety that I was seriously close to just looking up spoilers so I can calm down (but I resisted).

  • Kemper Boyd

    I voted Caleb and I’m pretty sure it’s him based on colour, size, lack of tattoos, the moles on the downed Survivor’s chest and the fact it looks like every other Beauty is standing around the down Survivor when Jeff calls for the evac helicopter.

    • Violina23

      My guess was Caleb or Nick, and I went with Nick for no particular reason

      • Purplerockmatt

        i think you can see nick in the background of one of the shots

        • Ethan Kyle

          You can, overhead shot in the preview you can see his shorts

  • EmAndScoutInBK

    I think it’s going to be Caleb based on what everyone’s saying (I have nothing original to add), but I’m incredibly concerned about how this is going to screw up the season. I’ve actually been enjoying this season so far (and, surprisingly, Caleb as well), and I’m worried that medevacs are going to set us down a bad path.

  • andythesaint

    I chose Caleb for edit reasons: it would explain why his has been completely absent of any negatives.

    • Mike Hirsch

      ^ This.

    • sharculese

      I think it’s Caleb based on all the analysis of the preview but I’ll also say this: Jeff was bullish on Caleb pre-season, and there’s not a lot about this season he’s been bullish about. I think it’s possible that being out there somehow brought out the best in him, and he managed to stay on good behavior.

    • corndogshuffle

      Between Caleb’s edit and his absence from the preview while every other Beauty was shown, I think he has to be the front runner for this medevac.

    • sweaterfan

      Did you see the secret scene where he was crying about missing his family and then talked about his experience serving overseas? Once I saw that, I figured he’s pretty much a lock to get eaten by a shark or whatever next episode.

      • andythesaint

        I did. One reaction: while the military stuff is on point, another reason he’s been away from his family a lot is his decision to do two tours of duty on reality TV. That could have been avoided.

    • tocantins

      I feel Neal would also be a good pick for edit reasons, no? He was arguably a major actor in last week’s episode, but he only appeared the bare minimum necessary to tell the story. That could be consistent with him being evacuated the next episode.

      • andythesaint

        Neal was my second choice. For that reason.

    • Hornacek

      It would be something if we find out in the rest of the exit interviews for the Beauty tribe we find out that Caleb was stalking the women just like he did on Big Brother, but the show chose to portray him as saintly because they almost killed him.

  • Mike Hirsch

    Maybe the medevac will turn out to be a camera person. SHOCKING TWIST.

    • Hornacek

      Asked on RHAP last week: what if Jeff Probst gets medevac’d?

  • itsafuckingSTICK

    I commented this elsewhere, but I think it may have been on a dead thread:

    For fun, my medical predictions:

    Joseph will get evac-ed. He’ll push himself too hard during a pre-merge challenge.
    Caleb will get an IV. It’ll be in his right arm, but he’ll be okay.
    Aubry will get medical attention. It’ll be like her episode 1 meltdown, and she’ll choose to quit.
    Neal will get a gnarly infection on his leg despite his ice cream pants.

  • Alkanarra

    For a moment I too was worried that it would be Caleb, but now that the community has overwhelmingly selected him I have almost complete assurance of his immunity. When 143 of us are below the Random Luck team, it says something about our collective precognition.

    • Roswulf

      On the other hand, there is ALSO some evidence for the collective community being cheating scum.

      Ultimately, I’m really sure that either Caleb DEFINITELY goes home or is DEFINITELY safe.

      • andythesaint

        Rock-solid logic.

        • Ethan Kyle

          Caleb stays in, but he also get med evaced

          • Assistant Dragon Slayer

            He lies, but he tells the truth too.

  • I’ll throw out a crazy idea: We might actually get more than one evacuation. I’d say it’s a longshot, but medical is definitely coming out multiple times. So it’s possible they evacuate two people.

    • tocantins

      Yeah, I got the same impression watching the CBS Preview. Jeff says something to the effect that it was the first time ever that 3 people crashed during a challenge (IIRC), so it is not outside of the realm of possibility that two of them need to be evacuated. And this wouldn’t bode well for the rest of the season (I still work with the assumption that it is going to be a bad season), since we would need at least one more episode without any elimination then. (Is that correct?)

      • Alkanarra

        My only consolation is that if it is a double evac then — to me — this is probably the best time for it to happen. Tribe swaps are likely soon so technically everyone is in a precarious position depending on how those go. It would also be way better now than a double evac after merge which totally messes with a stability that the whole season has been building towards. It still sucks, but I feel it’s not as bad now as it would be later in the season.

        • sharculese

          My consolation is that, if it’s a double medevac, I don’t see Alecia being the one to push herself too hard and flame out, so I get incrementally closer to my Outcasts team not being an utter disaster.

          • Alkanarra

            That’s a man with his priorities in the right place.

          • sharculese

            I also don’t believe it’s a double medevac.

      • andythesaint

        They’ve done episodes with an evac and a tribal council before. It depends on when in the schedule the evac occurs (like do they have enough time to still do it, do they still have the right balance between remaining players and episodes, etc).

        • sweaterfan

          I’ve been thinking a swap is imminent the next time they get to even numbers, so that may factor in as well. If it’s a single medevac, then voting someone out on top of that would mess up their numbers and postpone the swap. That’s all based on total speculation though.

    • sharculese

      I can’t remember, are DVR episode descriptions considered spoilers here? Because I have an argument on that point based on this one.

      • I think we generally go with the premise that anything that CBS themselves put out as promotion for the show isn’t a spoiler.

        • sharculese

          Okay cool. My argument is that the description for the episode says a medical evacuation, and this is a a thing they tend to not be subtle with. If it was two medical evacuations, they would say two.

          • I wasn’t going to bet money on it. I just figured it was possible, based on the promotion for the episode suggesting it was one of the most brutal they’ve ever had.

      • andythesaint

        I’d say with things that CBS puts out there, it’s fair game to discuss, but it’s polite to warn against.

        • sharculese

          Editing my post to comply with that.

  • Purple Rock Emma

    After my fantasy league blew up, I’m going for big swings the rest of the way through.

  • Ethan Kyle

    I’m still going with the Caleb is med-evaced theory