Survivor Kaoh Rong Week 5 Predictions and Poll

Alright, no medevac this episode (probably). Instead, we have to somehow make guesses based on new tribal alignments that we have no way of knowing how they will go. Despite this, we try to apply logic to predictions. Which might not be the best strategy.

pr_predictionsbnr_s32

Medevac Scenario Game

death count survivor kaoh rong

 

No medevac scenarios this week. We’re respectful like that.

Current score: John 2 Andy 1

Predictions

So it looks like all of us but Emma watched last week’s preview well enough to predict the exit of Caleb, but not enough to predict two eliminations. So we’ll have a gap in our chart that doesn’t really mean much since I’m sure we all would’ve predicted Alecia as the next Brawn to go. In other news, I ended my scoreless drought stretching back to predicting Mike would win Worlds Apart. So I’m good for the obvious stuff. Let’s see who we predict this week:

Andy: If pressed, I could have predicted a lot of possible outcomes for Neal. None of them included “invisible”. So why so invisible? Sure, one answer could be “because Brawn was a tire fire sucking away all storytelling that wasn’t otherwise reserved for the Caleb origin story”. But another could be “is unceremoniously voted from the game upon falling victim to the swap”.

John: Joe. Because he’s old.

Emma: Predictions before a swap are always a crap shoot, as seeing how the tribes are set up makes a big difference. But considering how my predictions and fantasy leagues have gone this season, I suppose I shouldn’t be too worried about being off base. Let’s go with Nick. He’s on the outs with his tribe now, so even if he somehow ends up on a tribe with a Beauty majority, they may be willing to sacrifice him in order to shore up new allies.

Mark: It’s time for the biennial screwing of the players! With a lopsided swap coming, there’s some kind of twist (player as Reward Challenge prize? 7-to-6?). Since we have no way of knowing who is where, I’m gonna trust screen time and say Anna, Nick, and Debbie are likely targets. Since I have to pick just one, I’d say Anna gets the Alexis edit as being too smart for her own good, but thanks to Tai’s idol, ​Nick goes.

Matt: Okay this is a tough prediction but I’m really between two people Joe or Neal.  But it will definitely be a former brain, I don’t think they are a cohesive tribe, and I think Peter will gladly stab someone in the back.  I don’t think it will be Debbie because she is getting a larger edit, so I think she will be around, but Joe and Neal have both been a bit invisible.  I think I will go with Neal, because he obviously has something to say, and the show isn’t showing him saying it, meaning he doesn’t have a lot of relevance to the big story of the season.  Plus he and Peter really got into it during that tribal, so Peter might be happiest to stab him in the back.

Andy John Emma Mark Matt Readers
First
Elimination
Alecia Alecia
Alecia Alecia Darnell  Alecia
Second
Elimination
Cydney Cydney
Cydney Alecia Alecia Alecia
Third
Elimination
Debbie
Joe Joe Liz
Joe Joe
Fourth
Elimination
Caleb
Caleb Neal
Caleb Caleb
Caleb 
Sixth
Elimination
Neal
Joe Nick
Nick Neal
question-mark
Score 0-red
Preseason
Winner
Pick
Peter Michele
Jennifer
Michele
Peter Jennifer

So there you have it. Make your picks below and don’t be afraid to give your explanation in the comments.

Who will be eliminated in the fifth episode of Survivor Kaoh Rong?

  • Nick (27% Votes)
  • Neal (21% Votes)
  • Anna (10% Votes)
  • Scot (10% Votes)
  • Peter (10% Votes)
  • Joe (8% Votes)
  • Jason (6% Votes)
  • Aubry (4% Votes)
  • Julia (2% Votes)
  • Debbie (2% Votes)
  • Tai (2% Votes)
  • Michele (0% Votes)
  • Cydney (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 52

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Through week 4 poll: who will win Survivor Kaoh Rong?

  • Anna (27% Votes)
  • Michele (27% Votes)
  • Cydney (12% Votes)
  • Neal (8% Votes)
  • Debbie (7% Votes)
  • Peter (5% Votes)
  • Jason (5% Votes)
  • Julia (3% Votes)
  • Aubry (3% Votes)
  • Tai (2% Votes)
  • Joe (0% Votes)
  • Nick (0% Votes)
  • Scot (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 59

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Andy
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Andy

Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
Andy
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  • Mike Hirsch

    I’m guessing we’ll see the temporary return of Exile Island after the swap, just it will be one person left at whichever beach is abandoned. So, Exile Abandoned Beach, I guess. Then they’ll join whichever tribe loses, after tribal.

    Also I voted for Neal.

    Edited to add: No I didn’t. I voted for Nick.

  • Diego Armando

    How is Michele still winning the winner poll? She has been completely invisible since the first episode.

    • Max_Jets

      Beauty hasn’t gone to tribal council so it’s hard to know, but she had a really good premiere and a confessional in either episode 2 or 3 when she wasn’t even relevant to the action. Most people were invisible last episode, so I wouldn’t hold that against her. I’m voting for her now because I was before, but I might have to switch it up depending on the next episode.

    • Roswulf

      Well, the most positively depicted group in the season is the Beauty majority, so that’s the obvious place to look for a winner. Julia is 19, Anna is a rightwing nut (which doesn’t stop you from winning Survivor, but loses you votes in purplerockpodcast polls), and Tai is a weirdo…a lovable weirdo, but still a weirdo.

      Michele gets winner prediction votes by being the member of group good guy with the fewest negatives

      • Alkanarra

        Yours (and Max_Jets) are good arguments, but I just find it odd that she’s so significantly outweighing Julia, who has been given a similar edit. You’re right about her age, though, and I’ll add that Michelle is a significantly higher Pick-4 selection than Julia, so it could just be people voting with their team, but I’m with Diego that it’s a *little* odd to see.

      • Kemper Boyd

        This alliance has featured in every previously on even when they don’t feature in the episode at all. And I agree with you on the rest of your reasoning.

      • I picked her preseason, and I’m losing a little confidence because of the lack of screen time. But only a little, because in the secret scene last week of the Beauty tribe discussing their alliance Michele was the one that got the confessional. It’s slightly disappointing that it didn’t make the episode, but it also had music over it and everything, so my guess is that it almost made air.

        • andythesaint

          All “Secret Scenes” have music and everything. It’s the other videos that don’t.

    • Kemper Boyd

      I don’t think we’ve seen enough yet to get out of our preseason predictions. I agree with Roswulf too, Michele also has the fact that her alliance has been shown in every “previously” even if they haven’t featured in the episode.

    • Mike Hirsch

      I’m pulling for Cydney after the last episode. She’s seen a steady development over the last few episodes.

      • Violina23

        I like Cydney a lot, but I don’t get a winner vibe from her story so far.

    • Other Scott

      I don’t think any winner has ever received this low of an edit through four episodes. Even Natalie White had her famous “lay out exactly what I’m going to do to win this game” in episode 4

      • Assistant Dragon Slayer

        I’m really starting to think that this season is going to be Samoa II, and that the main plot line is “how Jason lost Survivor”. I’ve argued before that too many people think Natalie White just won on accident (as you note, she clearly spelled out what her strategy was, and it worked!), but be that as it may, Russell was clearly edited to be the anti-hero protagonist of Samoa. If I’m right about Jason being the season’s anti-hero, then between the tire fire that was the Brawn tribe and the medical emergencies, it could be that the editors don’t see the need to start the winner’s narrative until after the swap.

        I’m old enough (just barely) to have seen Star Wars in its first theatrical release. Even as a little kid, it bugged me that Luke doesn’t even show up until half an hour in. But of course it turns out that it was Darth Vader’s story all along.

        Edit: On the other hand, Liz and Jenny were my winner picks, so maybe I should just stop predicting things.

      • Violina23

        Did Natalie Anderson?

        • Roswulf

          Yes. She got some play early on relating to Nadiya’s boot, had her explosion at Rocker, and in Episode Four was depicted as one of the players behind the hilarious fall of Drew Christie.

          A light edit to be sure, but Natalie both had her storyline (out for vengeance against the idiots her booted her chums) and personality (likable hothead, but also surprisingly smart) in place.

        • Other Scott

          Not even close. To use edgic visibility (1 is low, 5 is high), Michele so far has been 2, 2, 1, 1. Natalie Anderson was 2, 3, 4, 4.

          (Remember the Drew boot episode? Natalie was basically seen getting that whole thing organized for the girls)

        • Other Scott

          Better comparison is Sophie, who was similarly quiet (though not quite AS bad) for the first four episodes, and many, many episodes afterwards.

    • sweaterfan

      I, for one, bailed on Michele in last week’s predictions poll. Of course, my fantasy league ranking is in the high 3 digits, so I’m not necessarily what you would call an authority on predictions.

  • Disgruntled Goat

    Wow, none of you considered that Brawn has been decimated and will be sitting ducks for an easy vote, no matter which tribe they land on.

    I suppose someone at the bottom of Brains or Beauty may want to try and pull in a desperate Brawn to try and pull off a blindside, but who in their right mind would want to ally with Jason or Scot? I think it would be far safer to dump both of them before a merge, when they both become tantalizing Final Tribal losers to drag to the end.

    • Kemper Boyd

      The feeling I have is the Brawn could become a 3 to pick up if the Brains and Beauty go head to head.

      • Violina23

        … which is kind of the inverse of what I just wrote before I read your comment 😉

    • andythesaint

      You raise a good point.

    • Violina23

      It’s possible, of course, but I think it’s more likely that whoever is the bottom of the brains/beauty respective alliances will sweep up Scot/Kyle for vote counts.

  • I think this swap has us more befuddled than most other swaps because of the fact that for the majority of them, we have only seen truly three episodes worth of footage on them. Besides the Brawn 3, we weren’t with the other tribes besides Debbie, Tai, and Peter. That leads me to think that one of those three may be going home since Survivor editors tend to give us a little something in the episode before swap to make us realize why they are so dangerous in the actual swap.

  • Ethan Kyle

    Nick is probably fucked because A the beauty girls can’t stand him and I don’t think he has any idea and B because my fantasy team is doing well right now and something always goes wrong

  • turgid_legume

    I’m going to out myself as a complete nerd here, but the mathematics of the swap intrigued me so I wrote a program to calculate the odds of various possibilities.summary of 1716 possible (5, 5, 3) -> (6, 7) swap outcomes:
    beauty plurality and brain plurality 34.97% ( 600 ways)
    none 17.48% ( 300 ways)
    beauty majority and brain majority 11.42% ( 196 ways)
    beauty plurality and brain majority 8.74% ( 150 ways)
    beauty majority and brain plurality 8.74% ( 150 ways)
    brawn plurality 5.83% ( 100 ways)
    brain majority 3.50% ( 60 ways)
    beauty majority 3.50% ( 60 ways)
    brain majority and brawn plurality 2.91% ( 50 ways)
    beauty majority and brawn plurality 2.91% ( 50 ways)
    The ones with “and” indicate an outcome for one of each of the two merged tribes, whereas the others indicate an outcome for any tribe. I’m not sure why I included plurality in addition to majority, but I was writing the code so I figured why not. Here’s what it looks like with just majority:
    summary of 1716 possible (5, 5, 3) -> (6, 7) swap outcomes:
    none 58.28% (1000 ways)
    brain majority 15.15% ( 260 ways)
    beauty majority 15.15% ( 260 ways)
    beauty majority and brain majority 11.42% ( 196 ways)
    So there’s roughly a 42% chance that there will be a majority of some kind on at least one tribe.

    And this assumes that it will be a (6, 7) split, and not some weird exile island thing.

    • Violina23

      Wow, I’m impressed. And for what it’s worth, I was a comp-sci major with a math minor, so you are hitting my nerd sweet spots here 😉

      • turgid_legume

        Here’s the code, if it’s of any interest.

        • Violina23

          Nice! I haven’t done much in python. Until I stopped working to keep tiny humans alive, I worked on speech software, so most of my work was in Voice XML (VXML) and Java/JSP/Javascript.

          Thanks for letting me temporarily use my brain again 😉

  • Violina23

    I went for Neal because of the invisi-edit. Of course, he is on my fantasy team….

  • turgid_legume

    Also, here’s the tally of the total number of confessionals each player has gotten:Tai 18
    Jason 17
    Debbie 13
    Scot 10
    Peter 9
    Cydney 9
    Neal 7
    Anna 7
    Nick 4
    Michele 4
    Joe 4
    Aubry 4
    Julia 2As bus driver for the Neal bandwagon I have to admit that he’s been a bit sparse recently, but he’s had the same number of confessionals as Anna, and more than Michele. The number of confessionals is a bad metric, but it’s at least something.

    • sweaterfan

      That’s fascinating! Thanks for doing that research! My instinct just upon looking at the tally is that it seems really unlikely that the winner will come from the bottom section (Nick and below), however I see my winner pick in there. The top 3-4 seem like the entertainment factor for the season, so the middle section (say Anna through Peter) are probably the ones to watch in terms of winner potential. Then again, we’re only 4 episodes in and anything could happen…

    • Roswulf

      This is a really compelling way to communicate how little we know right now. There is no winner’s edit in play, to say the least. Here’s what I think we can extrapolate from this.

      1. Brawn has gone to tribal a lot.
      2. The editors think Tai, Jason and Debbie are entertaining (they are one third correct).
      3. Beauty has never gone to tribal.
      4. Julia is probably not going to win the season.