Survivor Kaoh Rong Week 6 Predictions and Poll

Alright, no medevac this episode (probably). Instead, we have to somehow make guesses based on new tribal alignments that we have no way of knowing how they will go. Despite this, we try to apply logic to predictions. Which might not be the best strategy.

pr_predictionsbnr_s32

Medevac Scenario Game

death count survivor kaoh rong

We were back at it this week, with John deciding to show his cinema-nerd chops and Andy expanding the term “evacuation” past medical reasons. Which scenario do you think was better?

Who had the better week 5 evac scenario?

  • Andy: Peter is disqualified when his long-form birth certificate surfaces (72% Votes)
  • John: Joe is actually E.T., is evacuated due to "phone home" confusion (28% Votes)

Total Voters: 57

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Current score: John 2 Andy 1

Predictions

None of us foresaw the swap putting one of the leading vote getters for the winner in a near-impossible situation. We’re really bad at this, I guess. Let’s see who we predict this week:

Andy: For the Blue tribe, I think Jason and Cydney will recognize the need to bring the Brains down a member, and Neal is the more threatening of the two (while Debbie feels like someone who could defect even with Neal’s elimination). And he won’t see it coming, leaving with an idol in his pocket. For yellow, I think it’s finally time for Peter to flip. Now that Beauty can’t gain a numbers advantage, it’s time for him to strike against those who dared vote against him. Unfortunately, since no one likes him, they’ll just use his double-dealing as an excuse to get rid of him. Thanks, Peter.

John: Uh, I’ll say that Joe goes after Peter thinks he has control of a vote… but Joe gets evacuated before it can happen. Nick will be voted out because people will be glad to work with Debbie, who they see as a clown, and thus want to separate her from her new crush.

Emma: It’s not exciting, but getting rid of Julia is an easy thing to do right before the merge. The reasoning for the Brains tribe is obvious, and Scot probably doesn’t mind Tai having fewer options. For Blue, I don’t know, man. The 2-2-2 split means things could really go either way. I’ll just stick with Nick, I guess.

Mark: So close last week with my scenario. If Gondol loses again, Peter and Joe go at it, Aubry sides with her grandpa and the new Tai/Scot idol power duo and pulls the plug on the ER doctor. ​Peter goes.​ If Chan Loh loses, who knows what kind of crazy shenanigans go on at Tribal, but it might force Neal to use his idol as a 2-2-2 tie develops. Beauty loses as ​Nick is voted out​ for getting too close to Debbie.

Matt: The cracks between Peter and Joe grow until Peter approaches Tai and those guys about taking out Joe, but Tai doesnt trust Peter and enlists Scot and Julia to take out Peter. So Peter is the victim of a 3-2-1 and goes home by trying to flip. Or, there is another way i think this happens too, where Peter approaches them to take out Joe, but then goes back to the Brains and Tai just idols him out anyway. I’m predicting Michele. Jason doesn’t bond at all with the Beauties, so he ignores the numbers thing and takes out the girl because we know how much Jason loves women and Debbie and the rest target Michele because Debbie is thirsting for some Nick and the others realize she might have some game.

Andy John Emma Mark Matt Readers
First
Elimination
Alecia Alecia
Alecia Alecia Darnell  Alecia
Second
Elimination
Cydney Cydney
Cydney Alecia Alecia Alecia
Third
Elimination
Debbie
Joe Joe Liz
Joe Joe
Fourth
Elimination
Caleb
Caleb Neal
Caleb Caleb
Caleb 
Sixth
Elimination
Neal
Joe Nick
Nick Neal
Nick
Seventh
Elimination:
Chan Loh (Blue)
Neal
Nick Nick
Nick Michele
question-mark
Seventh
Elimination:
Gondol (Yellow)
Peter
Joe Julia
Peter Peter
question-mark
Score 0-red
Preseason
Winner
Pick
Peter Michele
Jennifer
Michele
Peter Jennifer

So there you have it. Make your picks below and don’t be afraid to give your explanation in the comments.

If someone from Chan Loh (Blue) leaves, who will it be?

  • Nick (46% Votes)
  • Neal (20% Votes)
  • Michele (19% Votes)
  • Debbie (8% Votes)
  • Jason (5% Votes)
  • Cydney (2% Votes)

Total Voters: 59

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If someone from Gondol (Yellow) leaves, who will it be?

  • Peter (45% Votes)
  • Julia (29% Votes)
  • Joe (21% Votes)
  • Aubry (3% Votes)
  • Scot (2% Votes)
  • Tai (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 58

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Through week 5, who do you think will win Survivor: Kaoh Rong?

  • Michele (27% Votes)
  • Cydney (25% Votes)
  • Debbie (12% Votes)
  • Aubry (10% Votes)
  • Neal (8% Votes)
  • Tai (8% Votes)
  • Jason (5% Votes)
  • Julia (2% Votes)
  • Peter (2% Votes)
  • Joe (0% Votes)
  • Nick (0% Votes)
  • Scot (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 59

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Note: It’s actually okay to use actual evidence presented this season to pick a winner, rather than just relying on a hunch you had from reading someone’s bio in the preseason. Just saying.

Andy
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Andy

Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
Andy
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  • Other Scott

    Peter getting disqualified due to birth certificate status was by far the best evacuation scenario that has come up so far. Congrats, Andy.

    • Hornacek

      As soon as Andy finished that scenario, you could hear in John’s voice that he knew he had lost.

      • Purple Rock Emma

        The reverse happened with John’s red herring last week.

  • Mike Hirsch

    This really feels like the most wide-open scenario for a boot that we’ve had in some time (at least until the show starts and something happens like Nick gets to talk a lot about how awesome he is and we all realize he’s going home by 8:15, or Neal starts talking about how he won’t ever have to use his idol, and, well, see Nick). It just seems like Brawn and Beauty could team up to get a Brain out, or Brawn could forget how to count, and side with Brains to take a Beauty out. I’m not sure why no one is thinking Brains and Beauty aren’t teaming up to knock out a Brawn, but, even that seems like a possibility. Who knows. Throw a dart, make a pick.

    • Kemper Boyd

      I’d like to see Beauty and Brains go “why are we letting Brawn decide when they are the majority?” and take out Kyle. Mainly because I don’t like Kyle.

      • Alycia Swift

        I agree.

      • Hornacek

        Never trust anyone whose last name is also a first name.

        • Other Scott

          Can we make an exception for places where first names were last names first and stolen? (eg Jackson, Parker, Cooper, etc)

          • Saturday Night Palsy

            No, those people are horribly duplicitous. They never get a break.

        • Assistant Dragon Slayer

          As someone whose last name is a first name AND whose first name is a last name, this aggression will not stand, man! And by the way screw my freshman-year PE teacher who called me by the nickname for my last name for an entire damn semester.

        • Ethan Kyle

          Well fuck you too

          • Hornacek

            Don’t blame me. Blame your parents.

      • Mike Hirsch

        I would be perfectly okay with this happening.

  • Roswulf

    It’s kind of amazing how wide open the winner discussion is this late in the game. The top picks are people whose greatest accomplishment are being inoffensive while not getting all that much screen time.

    And (shudder) the Water Felon.

    • Alycia Swift

      And that may be part of the reason why the switch in airing the seasons and why this one was not hyped much except as the season of medical issues.

    • It’s not really that late in the game, though. We’re not even at the merge. So the race still being wide-open is a good thing.

    • Hornacek

      I would guess that a lot of that is because most people’s winner picks are already out of the game.

  • Kemper Boyd

    “Note: It’s actually okay to use actual evidence presented this season to pick a winner, rather than just relying on a hunch you had from reading someone’s bio in the preseason. Just saying.”

    Pretty sarcy Andy! I feel like this season still hasn’t given enough evidence to bet on anyone yet. Hence people going with their preseason pick just because there has been no evidence against it. I voted Anna last week based on evidence and look where that got me!

    • Roswulf

      Yeah, I’m not sure there IS a contestant that CAN be supported with clear evidence of a developing winner edit. You’ve got people with strong edits but MASSIVE flaws (Debbie, Jason, Scott, Tai- obviously Tai’s flaws are very different from the other three), and then you’ve got people with limited flaws and bland or limited edits (Michele, Cydney, Neal, Aubrey).

      I think Andy’s jab would be valid if people were picking Peter (Andy’s own pre-season favorite). But sticking with Michelle instead of flipping to, say, Aubrey? Eh, why not?

      • Alkanarra

        Seems to me the story they’re telling is one where those massive flawed players get screen time *because of* their flaws. They will be felled one-by-one by their individual Achille’s heel, whereas the winner will be low-key and unassuming, thus seeming more worthy of a victory when compared to their rasher competition — a Danni Boatwright, if you will. Not sure how well this type of narrative will work to make that style of winner seem compelling, but it would explain a Michelle/Neal/Aubry style victory.

        Or Debbie wins and then F logic.

        • Roswulf

          Or Tai wins, and all is joy.

          • Alkanarra

            Amen to that.

          • If that happened, I think the promotion for this season would’ve been a little heavier.

          • Roswulf

            Maybe they’re trying to pull a reverse Worlds Apart? They saw what happened when they hyped a vicious and unpleasant season with a delightful winner!*

            *This is almost certainly not what is happening. All is not joy.

          • Assistant Dragon Slayer

            I wouldn’t call Mike Holloway a “delightful” winner, exactly, but be that as it may, “reverse Worlds Apart” is exactly where I think Kaoh Rong is headed (highly enjoyable season with an awful, goat-dragging winner, and therefore underhyped by CBS).

          • Alycia Swift

            So if its an awful goat-dragging winner, its Kyle.

            It could otherwise be a woman. How many seasons with female winners actually get the hype? Some of those seasons are enjoyable, some not.

          • Assistant Dragon Slayer

            I’m thinking more like Peter and Debbie power-couple to the end, and the jury is mad at Debbie for engineering Tai’s boot. Kyle’s edit has, thankfully, just been too negative for him to be the winner.

            A woman winning would be the other explanation for the lack of hype for a season that has been terrific (so far), as well as the lack of any discernible winner’s edit (because women almost never win Survivor, men lose Survivor).

            FWIW: Jenny and Liz were my pre-season winner picks, so why even listen to me?

            Edit: Might as well take care of this myself:

            “Peter and Debbie power-couple to the end”

            “Seriously, are we not doing phrasing anymore?”

          • Wampus

            Kyle is the goat.

          • Roswulf

            Your opinion of Mike Holloway confirms that you are not Jeff Probst.

          • Ms. Sweaterfan

            The trees will rejoice
            http://i.imgur.com/qTTPBw7.gif

      • andythesaint

        To your point, “she hasn’t given me a reason to switch my vote” might not be a worse reason than picking anyone else so far.

    • andythesaint

      To be fair, at this point the only good argument for Michele is “she hasn’t given me a reason to switch my vote”. Which isn’t to say that she couldn’t win, but through five episodes, there’s no evidence that she will. I also voted Anna last week, and I STILL feel better about that than a Michele vote.

      • Diego Armando

        She did get some screen time, but it could just be set up for a boot later. If she was going to win, why would they give all the early Beauty alliance confessionals to the sixth boot? She is one of 7~8 people I think can win though.

        • Jim

          I think they gave it to her to show that she would be outed as a strategic threat down the road, as well as she was the leader of the threesome at that point. Also, I think it’s come down to Cydney, Michele and Aubry for the win, with Tai and Debbie having outside shots. (In order from left to right)

          • Diego Armando

            I really have no idea who will win

    • Other Scott

      I like sarcy. Is it an actual term used for a cross between saucy and sarcastic?

  • turgid_legume

    I think we need to take the “next time on” clips with a huge grain of salt. I really don’t see Nick/Debbie being an actual thing that has an effect on the game in any significant way. Likewise, the Joe/Peter thing could just be one of those brief segments that we see from the tribe that isn’t going to tribal council. Or if they do, it’s something that they patch up quickly, because Peter can at least still work with the brains on some level, whereas he’s barely even met Julia.

    I say that Julia is gone if yellow loses, and Michele is gone if blue loses. They just seem like the most conventional outcomes if you take away the misleads.