Survivor Kaoh Rong Week 7 Predictions and Poll

As fair warning, it sounds like there’s a potential spoiler out there in CBS’ latest commercial. If you’ve seen it, you’re still able to participate (since CBS-released quasi-spoilers are fair game), but if you want to avoid such things, you might want to avoid the results of our poll.


Medevac Scenario Game

death count survivor kaoh rong

It’s possible that we’ve exhausted the potential for this gimmick, or we just weren’t as enthusiastic this week. Either way, we’ll keep driving this into the ground if we have to.

Who had the better week 6 evac scenario?

  • Andy: Aubry is attacked by Dementors (53% Votes)
  • John: The love child of Brian Heidik takes Nick hostage (47% Votes)

Total Voters: 70

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Current score: John 2 Andy 2


This week’s predictions post kind of underlines how much of a disadvantage John and I are at by making our picks on Thursday night. I could lessen this by forcing others to make their predictions early, but then I’d have to work on this faster. Nah.

Andy: Brains and Beauty will team up to stuff the nerdy Brains in their lockers. Also, because the Brains (other than Debbie) are kind of awful and not so good at this people stuff. Aubry and Neal will be targeted as the big threats, with Aubry selected as the bigger of the two. She goes, while Neal wastes his idol (note, I’ve seen no spoilery previews).

John: Nick‘s devoted a lot of his time to forging deep social bonds with…uh…hang on, a name will come to me. Oh right, Debbie kinda likes him. She probably just doesn’t like him enough to actually do anything about it when his name comes up.

Emma: I haven’t watched the allegedly spoiler-filled preview, so my prediction can be pure and make me feel better as I continue to be the only one to be wrong every week. Look, it’s clear that this isn’t my season. You all saw what happened to my fantasy team. So for now, I will stick with Nick because it’s gotta happen eventually, right? (Watch as he makes the finale).

Mark: If this was a normal merge vote, I’d be worried for Nick (based on Michelle’s hatred of him) if the beauties are targeted, or Debbie because of her personality quirks. However, with all signs pointing to  a possible medevac, I’m going to go with Joe and his finger needing treatment and him being pulled.

Matt: The battle lines will be drawn and I think the Beauty and the Brains will be gunning for each other as they both make up 4 each, but Tai is more with the Brawn now anyway, and Nick I think is with Debbie and the Brains, leaving only a few beauty without any allegiance.  Plans will be drawn up where almost everyone is willing to vote Michele, but before they do medical shows up and Joe is evac-ed because of an infection in his finger. Michele is saved. (Note everything in this prediction except for the eventual boot is solely there to troll Mark).

Andy John Emma Mark Matt Readers
Alecia Alecia
Alecia Alecia Darnell  Alecia
Cydney Cydney
Cydney Alecia Alecia Alecia
Joe Joe Liz
Joe Joe
Caleb Neal
Caleb Caleb
Joe Nick
Nick Neal
Joe Julia
Peter Peter
Nick Nick
Joe Joe
Score 0-red
Peter Michele
Peter Jennifer

So there you have it. Make your picks below and don’t be afraid to give your explanation in the comments.

Who will be the next person eliminated from Survivor: Kaoh Rong?

  • Nick (27% Votes)
  • Joe (27% Votes)
  • Debbie (14% Votes)
  • Aubry (11% Votes)
  • Tai (8% Votes)
  • Neal (5% Votes)
  • Scot (5% Votes)
  • Jason (2% Votes)
  • Michele (2% Votes)
  • Cydney (2% Votes)
  • Julia (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 66

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Winner Prediction

We’ve been asking this question every week (probably unfairly early) so we could get a read of the room. And also so John could create a nerdy graph about it. BEHOLD!

Kaoh Rong winner picks- through merge
Click to see full-sized graphic.

Through week 6, who do you think will win Survivor: Kaoh Rong?

  • Michele (40% Votes)
  • Cydney (19% Votes)
  • Debbie (12% Votes)
  • Aubry (9% Votes)
  • Tai (6% Votes)
  • Neal (5% Votes)
  • Julia (5% Votes)
  • Jason (3% Votes)
  • Nick (1% Votes)
  • Joe (0% Votes)
  • Scot (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 78

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Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
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92 thoughts on “Survivor Kaoh Rong Week 7 Predictions and Poll

  1. Here’s the thing, I’m not sure it’s Brains v Beauties. I think it’s Brains v Brawn + Tai and I think here Julia is the swing vote. We know Michele seems to want to go with Debbie and Nick wants to go with Brawn. That’s 5-5, Julia can decide whether to stick with Scot and Tai or go back to what has to be her strongest relationship Michele and that means possibly go with the Brains.
    If you had to push me, I’d say that she goes Brawn and it’s Neal going with an idol.

    1. Yeah I was wrong in thinking it will be Brains v Beauties, but I do think there will be a move to turn on the hesitant swing votes

    2. Neal definitely has a “doesn’t play his idol” kind of feel. But not in a particularly entertaining way. More bland. Like vanilla…the name of the dessert escapes me.

      1. To paraphrase a great man: “People actively seek out vanilla flavored products. Nobody is clamoring for anything Neal-flavored.”

        1. This season could use some snarky confessionals as delivered by snarky professionals (as could any season, really).

  2. I’m starting to feel like everyone is voting for Michele as the winner just to spite the guys now.

          1. I think there are a lot of people who won’t believe Debbie can win until Jeff reads her name at the Live Reunion. I get it I do, she’s cray, but currently she’s the front runner.

        1. I voted for Debbie also. I am now going to vote for whomever is playing the best game. Michele is not likely to win. If the winner is an under the radar woman, it would be Cydney or Aubry. This is the equivalent of picking Sierra to win Worlds Apart.

          1. I’ll vote for whomever I think is playing the best game and is in the best position until I feel I can read the edit (which I am super bad at anyway).

    1. I predicted Michele as the winner preseason, and even I’m struggling to find much to support that claim beyond one silly confessional in the last episode.

      1. It’s been alluded to elsewhere in the comments, but I’m going to restate the case for Michele.

        1. Someone has to win the season.
        2. The world is not kind enough for it to be Tai.
        3. The world IS cruel enough for it to be Debbie/Scot/Jason, but some of us like to pretend it isn’t.
        4. Nick and Joe are hopeless. Aubrey is not entirely hopeless, but sucks at Survivor in a number of key ways.
        5. Of the more-or-less invisible folks (Cydney/Julia/Neal/Michele), Michelle is the one who has never been to tribal, and so the fact that she has barely been on TV is the most explicable.

        Hence, Michelle.

        1. I mainly enjoy that you alternate between Michele and Michelle through out this comment. But also I agree with you.

        2. Dom and Colin are all in on Michele. I only half-listened, but IIRC their thinking is a combination of what you said and this:

          1. Every minute of Survivor air-time is precious, they don’t waste it showing an ultimately unimportant character saying vanilla things.
          2. Michelle’s confessionals have been highly vanilla, therefore she must ultimately be an important character.
          3. She’s been completely irrelevant so far, so she must be extremely important the rest of the way.

          Hence, Michele.

          1. Yeah, their unflappable Michele-against-the-field stance from this week’s podcast left me pretty perplexed. They also mentioned they had her as an overwhelming favorite before the last episode (I thought I was listening then, too, but didn’t remember that), which is even more confusing to me.
            And as I mentioned in the liveblog comments just now, I came around on Michele as my favorite to win, but that certainty, that nobody else will pop up, I cannot share.

          2. I had Michele as my pre-season pick and 3 episodes in I felt like I had little reason to change. But right now Debbie is in the lead, in the game and in the edit but my gut tells me she isn’t a winner. And like Roswulf says it’s got to be someone and currently Michele seems as good a guess as most and a better guess than all the men but Kyle and Tai.

          3. Debbie and Tai seem to be good bets to be this season’s big players that get pulled from under us, to leave us wondering who could step up to win the whole thing. I think most people that have someone like Michele, Neal or Cydney as their winner pick at this point are acknowledging that Debbie and Tai are frontrunners from a visibility-and memorability-standpoint (maybe even for their position in the game), but see their eventual departure as inevitable, partly because of that (there is also that whole meta-reasoning of “Probst would love this season if so. like Debbie, Tai or Scot won, but he doesn’t”), and are just skipping that step.

            In the end, as you and Roswulf say, it’s got to be someone, but for me Michele is as good or a better guess than anybody and certainly more likely than any of the men (Tai I tackled above, Scot is/was a millionaire and Kyleson has a whole lot of negativity attached to him, which is usually enough to be excluded).

            However, I am not putting Kyleson and Debbie in the zero percent club because there’s no way to know when the showrunners decide to change up their typical way of editing a winner based on the specific personnel of a given season. Maybe they like Kyleson so much and feel a need to establish marquee villains for a new HvV, that hey decide their S32 winner can do with more negativity than what is custom.
            And if a quirky waterfelon named Debbie shows up and goes on to win the season, wouldn’t you have to throw the book on editing out the window to make the most of what casting got you?

          4. That’s the thing with Debbie, her edit feels unreadable because we’ve never seen a Debbie. We’ve had crazy ladies but not crazy ladies who are good at the game. It’s exciting that after years of Probst saying fucking stupid shit like “for some reason we just find it easier to cast interesting men” (paraphrased) they’ve hit casting gold on Debbie.

          5. She’s great and seemed to be doing really well until tonight’s episode.
            Unfortunately it seems unlikely that she gets the numbers back on her side, and she doesn’t come off as the type to blend into another alliance. Still a great find!

          6. Yeah I thought about this conversation when watching this morning. I think we’ve seen the beginning of either the Debbie is prime goat or Debbie is targeted because people don’t want to live with her (the Abi-Maria).

  3. Most of the rationale I’ve seen for the Michele winner pick (and I’ve spent a lot of time looking at edgic this season so I’ve seen a lot of rationale) mostly boils down to “It’s Michele because it’s not anyone else.” Which sounds worse than it is, because that’s basically the same logic people have every season and they are right a high percentage of the time.

    Also, I think all Michele winner picks are at this point are all about edit and not at all about game. Because her game has been non-existent and she just got snowed over by Debbie, so that wasn’t good.

    (Little reported fact in the “bro” confessional. Nick was actually right.)

    1. I think everyone agrees Nick was right in that exchange, it’s just that he wasn’t capable of saying it without sounding like he wanted to wear her skin as a suit.

      1. Yes. But my point was less about about Nick than it was about Michele. All we hear about that is “look how awesome Michele is!” She was also completely wrong with her read.

        1. That’s not what I’ve been hearing. To me it sounds more like “yes, Nick was right, but we’re being shown Michelle looking like a badass because this is her winner’s edit.” I don’t think that second part is necessarily right, but I think that’s what the consensus seems to be.

          I know you don’t listen to the Wiggle Room, but the special Stephen episode yesterday had a lot of stuff about how Nick’s argument wasn’t wrong, he was just bad at saying it.

          1. The amount people are invested in Michele and specifically Michele winning is really weird, considering how much of a non-entity and non-character she is.

          2. Dude, I’m the person whose gimmick is insisting there’s nobody on this season named Michele. You know I don’t disagree with you, I just think you’re a little off on what the argument that’s being made is.

          3. Like you said, it’s certainly not about her gameplay. I think many had her going in and are sticking with her, the rest is process of elimination/edit-based).

          4. I think you are right on the “yes, Nick was right, but we’re being shown Michelle looking like a badass because this is her winner’s edit.”. It’s not necessarily a winners edit but I really think it says something about how far she’ll go in the game.

      1. The problem with the edgic-ers is that they’re all convinced that any one of four or five people is going to win. And sure, some of them will be correct, because there are only so many people to choose from (and who’s gonna pick Joe or Nick?). But it still seems to be more down to blind luck and less to do with actual skill.

    2. yeah i’m going to have to refute the edgic is right stuff next week. i was looking into it and Edgic is full of tons of bias

      1. Looking forward. Also looking forward to finding out where the official Edgic’s for old seasons are, because google images give you like 9 and Survivor Sucks is impossible to manoevre.

          1. A lot of those charts are just individual people putting them together, which is a less valuable than when done as a group. (Obviously the value when it is done as a group is also debatable).

            I actually think this year is going to be a real referendum on edgic, just since Michele (or even Cydney, who I’m much more on the winner’s edit bandwagon for) is such an out there pick based on what we’ve seen, that if she ends up winning I think either edgic is better than we sometimes give it credit for, or people are more spoiled than we give them credit for.

            (Obviously it won’t be the be all and end all, but it would be a feather in its cap.)

          2. I don’t think there is a group or official one, a bunch of people use the same basic framework

          3. I don’t know if it would be that telling, for some reason (Probst?) Michele had a lot of people in her corner to begin with.

      2. Weren’t most of the winners from One World on pegged pretty early though? Cagayan was an outlier, but I was looking at the edgic discussion on Sucks and most people seemed to have SJDS figured out by F9 and that was probably the most difficult season to read of the bunch. By bias, do you mean because of spoilers?

        1. nah its not spoilers, i’ll go more into this in the post, but i’ve seen plenty of SJDS edgic that wasn’t even close on Natalie until final 6. they thought it was Jon after jeremy went out. bias is seeing what you want to see and reading it as impartial.

          but to give you a quick run down: edgic is good when shit is obvious, in other words, One World, Worlds Apart, Cambodia, Caramoan, Redemption Island, BvW. Edgic sucks in places like samoa, south pacific, nicaragua. in other words, in the seasons when it is really easy to pick out the winner, you don’t need edgic! because it is freaking obvious. in the ones where it isn’t obvious, edgic has a shitty track record. and yeah since one world it’s been pretty good, but that is a lot of seasons with very obvious winner edits, ones you dont need edgic to see

          1. look i’m not knocking it as a source of entertainment, but as a predictive tool it is not impartial. because there is a subjectivity that is read into the underlying assumptions (what is positive, what is negative) that is heavily biased by the reader.

          2. Your second paragraph just perfectly sums up the issues with that model, kudos. Recognizing that editing is absolutely important is obvious, thank you edgic. But edgic categories seem almost entirely based around seasons where people like Boston Rob and other obvious winners win. They fall apart when looking at seasons where people like Amber win. In some ways I see the failing being an over-reliance on what is seen as the CP edit.

            In particular, edgic fails in seasons where many strategic, socially aware women have won – players who only articulate or highlight their strategy a handful of times and so just would not tend to receive that CP rating. And yet this type of winner has won a good number of times – and they even have their own sort of winner’s edit. Just not one that is visible to edgic.

            And all that said, I enjoy reading edgics. Fascinating stuff. Redmond’s is my favorite by far.

          3. I’m surprised. I feel like the ones I saw had pointed towards Parvati, but it has been a while. Well, good job edgic on that.

          4. One of the things I want to know about Edgic is does it have a built in statistical model to deal with the difference in portrayals of male and female winners? Kim is the only female winner to have the most confessionals in her season. If you look at the edgic successes you’ve listed apart from Kim they are all male winners. I would love someone to do some unspoiled edgics of early seasons.

        2. A lot of people where down on Natalie as a winner possibility because she was invisible between the swap and Jeremy going home.

          1. She was pretty invisible from episode 3 until Jeremy went home. I thought the editors got a bit of a hard on for Josh and Jeremy which seems crazy considering they are boot 1 and 2 post merge.

          2. She’s featured as being a lynchpin in the Drewchebagging and then has some scenes with Jeremy after the swap.

            I actually don’t have a problem with the Josh and Jeremy stuff because, even if it didn’t affect the outcome, it looks like that was what was really going on at that point in the game.

          3. I suppose I’d be ok with it if it weren’t for the fact it feels like that the editors only show “what was really going on at that point in the game” when it’s female winner and men in charge at that point. I will be happy to be proved wrong if Debbie gets shown as being in charge then gets knocked out and a man wins the whole thing.

          4. Interesting. I think the edit of San Juan Del Sur is the best thing about it. I would much rather have the male winners toned down than have a female winner get the Mike edit.

          5. Oh I’d love to see a more complex edit for more winners. I get the Mike edit, because fuck me after Jenn went it really was a fucking disaster zone of hideous characters and Shirin and Mike left. Mike had to be the hero or that season is even more of a dumpster fire than it was. I suppose my issue is the disparity in edits between (most) male winners and (most) female winners. it feels like more men get to be the authors of their own fates portrayed as central figures within their alliances, where as a lot of women are either the sidekick, the flirt or the quiet one who are around alliances without being the driving force. There are obviously exceptions to this but it’s rare.

          6. Agreed on the disparity. I think it varies on whether the trend hurts the overall season (Samoa, South Pacific) or helps it (SJDS, Philippines, possibly HvV), but it’s definitely a problem for the series as a whole.

            As for Worlds Apart, I would have loved for more of an edit for Sierra. Carolyn could have also used some screen time in a couple key episodes (apparently she put Will on a time out after she heard about his Shirin incident). I know Shirin’s story isn’t about them, but it’s so obvious that Mike will take the win when we don’t hear from anyone else about what happened.

          7. I felt Carolyn was incredibly underserved in the edit of that season. If I’m honest I do wonder how much there was to give us on Sierra but Carolyn was a great Survivor architype the tough old lady and I certainly wouldn’t have minded more of her.

          8. I would 100% prefer that male winner’s edits were toned down and we had a more well rounded story telling but I do think there are a few women who won who could have been given more centre in their own story (as Survivor really is the story of how the win won and to a lesser extent how the loser lost). As I said in another comment the only female winner to have the most confessions in their season was Kim. That’s 1/13 yet 10/18 male winners have dominated the confessionals (also only 9/31 seasons have had a female confessional leader, and 4 of them were Cirie and Stephanie LaGrossa).

      1. Debbie mentions in the extra-scenes she wasn’t really planning on working with Michele.

        1. Thanks. Well that’s a disappointment. But I wonder if the reason that scene isn’t included on the show is because ultimately she does work with Michelle.

          1. Could be what you said, or it’s to shield her from showing bad judgement, or it’s just omitted to make Nick look worse.

          2. More than just that, the scene confirms that Michele was the planned boot by everyone but Nick and Michele. Debbie just wanted her to have a nice last few days. Also, Debbie did not think highly of anything she had done in the game.

            As you say, it’s omission could be telling. Or it could just be that they never went to Tribal Council and thus no more needed to be said. Or it could be that it was too long to soundbite.

          3. I’ve been thinking and I wonder if the inclusion of those two scenes is to do with what happens down the road. Just because Michele was the planned boot there and Debbie didn’t want to work with her doesn’t mean they won’t work together post-merge. It seemed to me like ground-work for the later part of the game as they didn’t go to Tribal.

          4. I basically think deleted scenes are just extensions of the show. If they are really that counter to what the show wants you to think moving forward, they won’t have the scenes on the website either. They’re basically just stuff the show didn’t have time to show, not stuff they cut because it didn’t fit into the story they’re telling.

      2. Debbie had a secret scene where she basically admitted to playing Michele, which is basically what Nick said she was doing and what Michele was arguing against.

  4. That graph is a lot of fun. I especially like the rise of Cydney- when she was doing things and getting VIRTUALLY no airtime, she had very limited support. But now that she’s spent a couple weeks doing nothing and getting ABSOLUTELY no airtime?

    The Cydney train is rolling!

      1. It’s surely not true, but I like to imagine that there’s a solid 15% that’s gone Liz-Anna-Cydney.

  5. I love that graph. It’s all like, “Michele and Anna! Michelle and Anna! OH SHIT! Michelle and Cydney!” That would appear to be the zeitgeist of the Purple Rock community.

    1. I wanted to track the predictions this season just for that reason- to see where popular opinion goes from episode-to-episode. And how soon we all arrive at the correct conclusion (if we do at all).

  6. I just can’t shake this feeling that the post-merge portion of this season is going to go completely off the rails, narratively speaking. I haven’t been spoiled (that I know of) other than watching a certain CBS promo video that was mistakenly uploaded by the incompetent CBS social media interns, but which didn’t really reveal much of anything significant and certainly nothing like the identity of a boot/evac. But somehow I see this ending in pain and sadness, and that this season has peaked. I really hope I’m wrong, but manage your expectations.

      1. Yes, I’ve been wondering about that myself. While I personally think Alecia was bullied, I got the impression that was not what Jeff was talking about in interviews. So it makes me wonder what will happen and who will do it. I’m wondering if Jason’s lines about pushing nerds into lockers has anything to do with it.

  7. This is one time I’m glad Canada has simulcasting and we don’t get the American signals if a show airs at the same time on a Canadian channel. Canadian commercials sometimes have the same footage as the American commercials, but they don’t show TV show commercials as frequently – it’s mostly ads for Apple Auto Glass and Permacrete.

    I record all my shows on the PVR and watch them later so I always skip commercials, so I haven’t seen any commercials for this week’s episode. Plus I’ve found the PVR Survivor episode descriptions very spoilerish in the last few seasons (“Tonight an immunity idol is played at tribal disrupting everyone’s plans!” – thanks for letting me know, Bell!) so when I start to watch an episode I have to hold my hand up and peek between my fingers so I don’t see the description.

    Basically what I’m saying is it’s a miracle I get to watch the show at all.

    Only one day and 6.5 hours to go to avoid being spoiled! (fingers in ears) La-la-la-la-la …

    1. Last time I was in Canada was right before your last elections, so a solid 3rd of the commercials I saw had Justin Trudeau in them.

      1. That was a hellishly long campaign cycle too. Over two whole months we had to hear about elections.

        1. I’m sorry that being the first nation to go all in on democracy means we have some kinks in the system that are hard to fix.

      2. Hopefully you saw the pro-Justin commercials with his beautiful hair and not the attack ads with the office people sitting at a table going over his resume saying “He’s just not ready.” The opposition’s strategy was “Hey, Justin will be prime minister *someday*, just not this time.”

        1. It was Victoria, so the former. Lots of scenes of him sitting in peoples’ living rooms talking about what he can do for the average Canadian.

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