Survivor Kaoh Rong Week 8 Predictions and Poll

I’m still a little disappointed that I missed last week’s prediction by a scratch. This week, we’re adding a new poll for weekly analysis. Enjoy!

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Medevac Scenario Game

death count survivor kaoh rong

 

As is now tradition, we don’t play on weeks of actual evacs. I’m one up heading into the week.

Current score: Andy 3 John 2

Predictions

Ha ha! Your zapruder-like analysis of the previews failed you! Old Joe stays for now. Forever! Winner’s edit?

Andy: You know who’s secretly awesome? Cydney. Why is this a secret? Because she’s not long for the game? Now that Brains have been taken down a notch, losing their most obvious target and possessor of an idol, the motivation to team with Brawn to take them out is lessened. Meanwhile, Brawn has their own dangerous player in Cydney. The Brains will be happy to work with whoever makes the best offer. My guess is that team is Beauty this week. So long Cydney; we hardly knew ye.

John: If the women can actually form a women’s alliance, Cydney should be perfectly safe. But I’m going to bank on Survivor’s record of proposed women’s alliances vs women’s alliances that actually materialize. As for how Cydney ends up going home,  I’ll just imagine a scenario where Cydney tries to take out Jason, but his idol ends up taking her out. I have no idea.

Emma: I’ve already talked about how poorly I’ve done this season. You know it, I know it. What’s worse than picking someone who doesn’t go home is picking someone every week, and then not picking them the week they go home. So Nick it is, and Nick it shall stay. (Editor’s note: it’s not to late to make Nick your winner pick, folks).

Mark: Now that the guys and girls are even, the women’s alliance idea comes to fruition. Cydney, Aubrey, Michelle, Julia, and Debbie team up to vote for Scot and the guys aim for Debbie. Before it goes to rocks and Scot can give his pro athlete “Thanks Obama” speech sequel, Jason and Tai team up to play the super idol and knock out Debbie.

Matt: Now that Neal is gone the Brains are no longer the focus.  Instead it becomes the Brawn vs the Beauty, only the Beauty are fractured and that fracture opens the door for new ideas.  A women’s alliance gets loudly floated, and blamed on Michele (in actuality Debbie is the main instigator).  But not all women are willing to do this, and when faced with being on the losing side, a bunch of people defect and Michele is left holding the bag and goes home.  This also explains her increased presence the last few weeks because they are setting her up as a reasonable boot pick in a big tribal. (Editor’s note: troll so hard).

Andy John Emma Mark Matt Readers
First
Elimination
Alecia Alecia
Alecia Alecia Darnell  Alecia
Second
Elimination
Cydney Cydney
Cydney Alecia Alecia Alecia
Third
Elimination
Debbie
Joe Joe Liz
Joe Joe
Fourth
Elimination
Caleb
Caleb Neal
Caleb Caleb
Caleb 
Sixth
Elimination
Neal
Joe Nick
Nick Neal
Nick
Seventh
Elimination
Peter
Joe Julia
Peter Peter
Peter
Eighth
Elimination
Aubry
Nick Nick
Joe Joe
Joe
Ninth
Elimination
Cydney
Cydney Nick
Debbie
Michele
question-mark
Score 0-red
Preseason
Winner
Pick
Peter Michele
Jennifer
Michele
Peter Jennifer

Who will be the next eliminated player on Survivor Kaoh Rong?

  • Nick (31% Votes)
  • Scot (16% Votes)
  • Debbie (13% Votes)
  • Cydney (11% Votes)
  • Michele (7% Votes)
  • Aubry (5% Votes)
  • Tai (5% Votes)
  • Joe (5% Votes)
  • Julia (4% Votes)
  • Jason (3% Votes)

Total Voters: 75

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Winner Prediction

Yeah, even after my big rant against talking about winner’s edits, we’re going to keep doing this. Wouldn’t want to deny you all the opportunity to say “I told you so”. Plus, the staff needed to update for the midway point:

Andy: As best I can tell, these are the arguments for why Tai can’t win:

  1. If he were the winner, this season would be more celebrated. Response: meh. We sometimes get too clever trying to read the intentions of the people who make this show. Maybe they just weren’t excited about this season because it was a production nightmare? Or that it wasn’t Second Chance. There are simple answers here.
  2. No one this beloved ever wins. Because we can’t have nice things. Response: no one as active as Tony ever won until he did. I think we might be forgetting how close Yau-Man, Cirie, and Keith came to winning. They were one immunity win away. I’ve seen no evidence to suggest that Tai couldn’t win that immunity. There’s a chance.
  3. They’d be stupid to let him get to the end. Response: why are we eliminating the possibility that these people might be stupid? Boston Rob got to the end. Jeremy got to the end. Kim got to the end. JT got to the end. Sometimes obvious winners get to the end. How would Tai? Let’s say he gets to the final six through a combo of good alliance building and bigger threats being targeted. This isn’t unlikely: Nick, Scot, Jason, Cydney, and Aubry are all out there. People WANT Tai in their alliance. They might not be motivated to move on him too soon due to a combo of not being afraid of him, his usefulness around camp, and just plain liking him. So, we get to the final six and he’s close with two other people against three other people. His side can’t turn on him because they need him to advance themselves. If they win, he’s (possibly) two votes away (give or take final three or final two). He plays an idol at five. Now he needs to win that final challenge. Who knows? Also keep in mind, there’s one more vote he gets to skip due to medevac (provided it’s not him). Also, are we sure this will be the last idol he finds?

This could happen. Open your heart and let yourself hope again. Isn’t that better than picking your favourite cipher? Plus, if I’m wrong and it’s not Tai, none of you will dare taunt me for it. You wouldn’t want to be happy about being right.

John: Michele is still my winner pick. Remember how she united the Beauty women from day one? Remember how she drank all of Caleb’s water before that challenge to make sure the women would have a numbers advantage? Remember when she chose to be on the other side so that Anna’s overt scheming could be taken out, allowing Michele to fly under the radar? Remember when she had Peter screw up the block-stacking challenge, then rubbed bacteria into Neal’s open wounds so she could continue to avoid tribal council for a little longer? This is a woman that came to play and came to win. I knew it as soon as I saw her, and I’m glad so many of you continue to completely rationally vote for her as a winner based on the dominance we’ve witnessed thus far.

Emma: Well, someone has to win. I think it’s time to accept that the winner will be flawed. I’m just not ready to concede that those flaws will be of the moral kind. Perhaps something game-related that can be overcome…such as changing your mind in the voting booth. I don’t have particularly strong feelings either way on this one, but I can at least see where the editors can craft a narrative for an Aubry win, and I don’t quite see that with anyone else yet.

Mark: I’m sticking with Michelle as the winner, even after this scenario. It shouldn’t set her back, since the four remaining girls still secretly have Nick on their side, who wants to work with both her and Aubrey. From there, it’s a pretty easy path forward. Tai would get on the girl’s bad sides after the idol play, so he’ll be a target. Nick becomes the crazy Amazon Matt to Michelle’s Jenna, without the whole peanut butter reward thing. I think Aubry and Cydney are too well liked to get to the end, barring an immunity run by the latter. There are very few plausible winners with the themes of the season. And at the very least, Beauty will have the most jury votes.

Matt: Tai is gonna win people, open your eyes! Okay, I’m not at all certain of anything this season, but this is exactly how Tai would win: he would pair with someone too wealthy/famous to win on their own (Scot) and someone too blinded by themselves to realize that people liking you is important (Jason), as the season goes these two assume a power based on the fact that people want to be at the end with them, but Tai is always in their inner circle due to his bond with Scot. Near the end, the fact that Tai is dangerous becomes more obvious, but Scot likes him and doesn’t care, and Tai also wins a timely immunity or two. In the end, Tai lives on not only in our hearts but also in the winner’s pantheon.

Midseason
Winner
Pick
Tai Michele
Aubry
Michele
Tai question-mark

Through week 7 poll: who will win Survivor Kaoh Rong?

  • Michele (36% Votes)
  • Aubry (27% Votes)
  • Tai (16% Votes)
  • Cydney (6% Votes)
  • Nick (4% Votes)
  • Julia (4% Votes)
  • Jason (3% Votes)
  • Scot (3% Votes)
  • Joe (0% Votes)
  • Debbie (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 67

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Who was the Week 7 MVP?

As suggested by commenter Roswulf, this might be the far more interesting discussion than trying to read tea leaves on the winner. So have it, who had the best week? Use whatever definition you want to make your vote. And comment below if you’d like to further the discussion.

Who was the episode 7 MVP?

  • Nick (56% Votes)
  • Michele (14% Votes)
  • Aubry (12% Votes)
  • Tai (8% Votes)
  • Cydney (3% Votes)
  • Scot (3% Votes)
  • Julia (3% Votes)
  • Joe (0% Votes)
  • Jason (0% Votes)
  • Debbie (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 59

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Andy
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Andy

Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
Andy
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  • I voted for Nick as last week’s MVP. Not only did he win immunity, but he found himself in a good spot with all of the information about the current idols. Yes, he may be a douchebag, but even douchebags can have good weeks.

    • Purplerockmatt

      i did too. Nick had a good week!

    • Kemper Boyd

      So far we’ve all voted for Nick, he had a good week. Keep in up Nicky! I’d like those sweet fantasy points to continue.

      • Sylvisual

        Broke your streak. I’d say avoiding getting voted out because of an evac is a really good week!

        • Kemper Boyd

          You are wrong but like that’s your prerogative.

      • Do you have him in the Outcasts League? Because if you do, I hope that you lose him soon.

        • Kemper Boyd

          I do, Nick and Debbie.

          • Tonight could be really interesting for you, since those two are the ones that are on the hot seat. However, will their vote-out be a truly shocking blindside? I don’t know about that.

          • Kemper Boyd

            Yes, I am now just down to Debbie. My reign at the top is over. I doubt I will regain it but I will hopefully still finish top half.

        • Saturday Night Palsy

          I have him in Champions League so it looks like Kemper is safe.

    • Diego Armando

      I voted for Aubry just because I refuse to vote for Nick, even though he had the best week.

    • andythesaint

      Agreed. I see the argument for Aubry since she got a lot of focus, but since she was almost voted out, I’d say that’s a negative.

      • sharculese

        “Would have been voted out at the merge if her closest ally hadn’t been medevaced, but rallied to win” is exactly the kind of narrative Survivor would construct for a character like Aubry.

        • andythesaint

          I meant the argument for her being the week’s MVP. Her winner’s argument is as fine as anyone else’s.

          • sharculese

            Oh, yeah, I agree with that. She had a terrible week.

          • It may be debatable but she has had a rough couple of weeks with the whole voting out Peter debacle for her.

          • Alycia Swift

            Now there’s how her story is similar to Mike’s – a rough couple of weeks.

          • Callbacks!

          • Saturday Night Palsy

            And she’s clearly playing the best right now.

      • Yeah, Abi-Maria got a lot of focus in the pre-merge of Cambodia, but I would never say that she was the MVP at all (except for maybe the Shirin vote…maybe).

        • sharculese

          I would say Varner was the MVP there. He saw a weakness in the majority alliance and exploited it perfectly.

          • Yeah, I was debating between him and Abi-Maria. Here is who I would give the MVPs to in the pre-merge of Cambodia
            Episode 1: Shirin
            Episode 2: Varner
            Episode 3: Tasha
            Episode 4: Tasha/Woo (based solely on his Tribal Council Performance)
            Episode 5: Jeremy/Kimmi/Stephen (this is a toss-up)
            Episode 6: Ciera (because of the edit; I have heard that this was really Abi-Maria’s call to go after Woo)/Kass

          • Alycia Swift

            And where was the crab that bit Varner’s ass? 😛

          • My bad. He’s tied with Shirin for episode 1.

          • Other Scott

            Mine:

            Episode 1: Woo, because of blindside face
            Episode 2: Woo, because of turning down Spencer and Shirin
            Episode 3: Woo, for being the only sane Ta Keo on the Angkor tribe
            Episode 4: Woo, for tribal council performance
            Episode 5: Woo, for finally winning a challenge
            Episode 6: Woo, because of blindside face

            Cambodia went downhill post-merge

          • I know this may come out of nowhere, but I think you may like Woo.

    • Roswulf

      Yeah, I went with Nick as well. He cultivated relationships as ably as anyone with the disadvantage of being Nick could, retained apparent control over Michele without setting off obvious alarm bells in anyone’s head, and ultimately (well, almost ultimately) sided with the group that offered him the clearest path to victory- “Members of the jury, maybe I make your skin crawl. But am I Jason? I am not Jason.”

      Though I considered Tai, for his ability to heal major open wounds without contracting a potentially deadly infection.

      • Good call about Tai. He also almost beat Nick in immunity and wasn’t considered a target for being voted out.

    • Mike Hirsch

      Yeah, Nick had a solid week, no real argument there. That said, my vote for him as MVP was pretty much a “ugh, fine” vote.

  • Kemper Boyd

    Note I am now mainly voting for Michele as the winner pick to annoy you guys.

    • Purplerockmatt

      I think I speak for all Purplerock staff when I say: we expect nothing less

      • Kemper Boyd

        You are welcome!

    • andythesaint

      Honestly, I’m not even mad at it anymore. As long as people don’t claim she’s playing the best, I don’t care if they think she’s going to win. Maybe she will.

      • Kemper Boyd

        I think she could well win this thing, I don’t think she’s shown us any reason why yet. But I only have Scot as not winning so far so it’s not high praise.

        • Side Character

          I kinda said this elsewhere, but the eventual winner, whoever that may be, could go all Natalie Anderson on everyone, with the editors waiting to show them until something happens to them, which has them playing a lot harder nearer to the end. This could possibly happen for Michele if one of her former Beauty tribemates gets voted off (I’d love to see her do this if Julia gets voted off, because then people would be like, “Wait, who are you avenging?”). As of right now, though, I couldn’t tell you who I think will win, ’cause I don’t know.

        • andythesaint

          It’s actually fun that the field is wide open. I mean, other than the fact that it’s clearly Michele.

          • Kemper Boyd

            So fun. Look at the voting for next voted off, it’s so balanced, that is exciting to watch.

      • Kemper Boyd

        And I’ve only got Scot as being unable to win…

  • Other Scott

    I’m annoyed enough at the edgic crew over “Obviously Michele’s winning” that I’m just going to pick someone who’s not on their radar each week.

    This week: Nick, next week: Scot, the week after: Joe.

    Etc.

    • Purplerockmatt

      see i’m just predicting that Michele will be the next boot until greater evidence rears its head

    • sharculese

      Guys, can you add a ‘Woo’ option to the poll for Scott’s benefit?

      • Other Scott

        Please?

        Actually, I was thinking I wanted a “not Michele” option.

  • Ms. Sweaterfan

    My prediction is that the alliances will completely reshuffle this week from what we were shown last week. I ended up voting for Cydney, but that was a wild stab in the dark. Basically whatever alliances were made last week, I’m expecting to see the opposite this week (crafty editors!)

  • Diego Armando

    My prediction is that everyone wants Nick gone, but he wins immunity, so they taking out Michele.

    • Saturday Night Palsy

      I don’t think that everyone wants Nick gone. A few do, but I think he’s in this for a couple more weeks at least.

      • Diego Armando

        Ha.

  • Mike Hirsch

    I’m sticking with Cydney as my winner pick, because why the hell not?

  • Side Character

    I would love to see Julia come out and win this thing. No one would expect that. Not even Julia. There is no indication that she even exists on this show–what if she became the Brett of this season?
    Some people may be calling her Purple Julia this season, but a Purple Julia already exists, from Caramoan. Cochran said that saying she has a vanilla personality would be a disservice to the flavour of vanilla, and no one wants anything Julia-flavoured. Caramoan Julia also got eliminated before the merge, so Kaoh Rong Julia is doing better than her already (plus, third in the last Immunity Challenge, that’s not too bad for a 19-year old who no one is noticing).

    • Alycia Swift

      Purple Julia the Second.

      • I wonder if her case is worse because Baby Julia made it to the merge, while Vanilla Julia didn’t.

        • Assistant Dragon Slayer

          It’s not like there are rules for Purple designation, but I think making the merge should be a prerequisite. You have to be in the game for a long time in order to conspicuously be invisible, if that makes any sense. I know it’s impolite to bring up anything about Nicaragua, but remember that the original Purple Kelly made it to Day 28, while the other Kelly was a pre-merge boot. Dateable = Purpleable.

          • I think that is absolutely fair. That is why the blonde Caramoan girl fans aren’t as bad as Purple Kelly-they just didn’t make it far.

          • sharculese

            The thing about Purple Kelly is that it looks like she really just didn’t say things. There’s that whole exchange between her and Chase on the volcano reward that goes-

            Chase: You don’t talk much, do you?

            Kelly: Yeah, it’s funny isn’t it.

            Chase: No, it’s weird.

    • My only concern with Julia is the fact that she has had so few confessionals. I believe her current count is at 6 which means that she is still lower than almost all of the pre-merge boots.

  • Sylvisual

    If a woman doesn’t win this season, I’ll eat my white male privilege.

    • Kemper Boyd

      I imagine this is hard to eat:

      • Mike Hirsch

        Burn it!

      • Ms. Sweaterfan

        Everyone stand back – this man has swallowed his neck beard!

  • turgid_legume

    I don’t have anything against Michele but I hope she’s voted out next so that we can end this nonsense for good. My heart’s just not in this season any more. You’ve almost convinced me that Tai has a chance, but I’m too far gone.

  • Violina23

    I voted for Aubrey to win even though it’s mostly wishful thinking (If the Harry Potter adorableness wasn’t enough, the Oregon Trail reference put me over the edge). Although, if she wins, there’s going to be a lot of people pointing to the fact that she lucked out with the medivac situation