Survivor Kaoh Rong Week 9 Predictions and Poll

Time to predict and vote and argue again. As we do.

pr_predictionsbnr_s32

Medevac Scenario Game

death count survivor kaoh rong

After our traditional Hiatus of Respect, we’re back at it with evac scenarios with John looking to tie things up.

Who had the better week 8 evac scenario?

  • John: Julia gets dysentery from bad ice cream (64% Votes)
  • Andy: Jason is attacked by the Death Bed: The Bed That Eats (36% Votes)

Total Voters: 66

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Current score: Andy 3 John 2

Predictions

Andy: Sometimes previews misdirect, sometimes they play it straight. If the preview were suggesting that Tai, or Debbie, or Jason, or Obvious Winner Michele™ were in trouble, I’d pay less head to it. Because it’s not so much that it hinted that Julia might be in trouble, it’s that it featured Julia at all. We’re at the point in the season where “this episode is about Julia” = “Julia is going home”.

John: Michele is going home. To us, she’s the secret, under-the-radar leader of the women’s alliance. (Cydney is just the figurehead, obviously.) But that’s just because the edit is hiding her glory from us. It’s impossible for a big personality playing such an active role to hide during the actual game, so everyone there knows she’s a huge threat. And they’ll neutralize that threat immediately.

Emma: Given his cocky edit, I think ​this​ week is finally the one where Nick will… Wait, what’s that? Nick got voted out last week? I was… I was right? Okay, hmmm. That changes everything. I shall use my newfound power to hope the women’s alliance holds strong. Everyone is against Jason and Scot at this point, so they split the vote. Super idol, shmuper idol. Tai voted for Jason last week, so Jason plays his idol before the vote and Scot goes home. Maybe someday someone under six feet tall will be on the jury.

Mark: This has to be the week where my amazing Pick-6 team hits the buzzsaw. Even if the girls are mad at Julia for cozying up to Scot (as hinted in previews), I’m not sure she votes with the guys in the end. (And even if she does, Joe counteracts that vote, as we saw last week.) So as revenge for their assholery, I can see the girls targeting Tai and Jason now that everyone knows about the super idol. That super idol could save either of them, but I don’t see Jason using it on anyone but himself. Exit the best player in the game in a 4-3-2: Mark the Chicken. Wait, sorry, Tai. America cries and viewership plummets 30%.

Matt: Okay this week it is everybody against Scot and Jason but some of the people in the middle are getting a little big for their britches. The brains want to take back control of the big alliance and need to eliminate someone on their side and don’t view Scot and Jason as threatening enough to target. Meanwhile the brains wanting to make an in alliance power play try to enlist Scot and Jason for one vote and they want Cydney gone for betraying them. And so Cydney goes home blindsided by an unlikely alliance. Either that or Michele goes home. Definitely Michele. My pick is Michele

Andy John Emma Mark Matt Readers
First
Elimination
Alecia Alecia
Alecia Alecia Darnell  Alecia
Second
Elimination
Cydney Cydney
Cydney Alecia Alecia Alecia
Third
Elimination
Debbie
Joe Joe Liz
Joe Joe
Fourth
Elimination
Caleb
Caleb Neal
Caleb Caleb
Caleb 
Sixth
Elimination
Neal
Joe Nick
Nick Neal
Nick
Seventh
Elimination
Peter
Joe Julia
Peter Peter
Peter
Eighth
Elimination
Aubry
Nick Nick
Joe Joe
Joe
Ninth
Elimination
Cydney
Cydney Nick
Debbie
Michele
Nick
Tenth
Elimination
Julia
Michele
Scot
Tai
Michele
question-mark
Score
Preseason
Winner
Pick
Peter Michele
Jennifer
Michele
Peter Jennifer
Midseason
Winner
Pick
Tai Michele
Aubry
Michele
Tai Michele

Who will be the next eliminated player on Survivor Kaoh Rong?

  • Scot (40% Votes)
  • Julia (15% Votes)
  • Cydney (11% Votes)
  • Jason (8% Votes)
  • Michele (8% Votes)
  • Debbie (7% Votes)
  • Tai (5% Votes)
  • Joe (4% Votes)
  • Aubry (1% Votes)

Total Voters: 73

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Winner Prediction

Look, we all know that the answer is Michele. No need to get all ranty about it.

Through week 8 poll: who will win Survivor Kaoh Rong?

  • Michele (29% Votes)
  • Aubry (27% Votes)
  • Cydney (16% Votes)
  • Tai (12% Votes)
  • Julia (6% Votes)
  • Debbie (4% Votes)
  • Scot (4% Votes)
  • Jason (1% Votes)
  • Joe (1% Votes)

Total Voters: 77

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Who was the Week 8 MVP?

As suggested by commenter Roswulf, this might be the far more interesting discussion than trying to read tea leaves on the winner. So have it, who had the best week? Use whatever definition you want to make your vote. And comment below if you’d like to further the discussion.

Who was the episode 8 MVP?

  • Cydney (84% Votes)
  • Aubry (5% Votes)
  • Debbie (5% Votes)
  • Julia (3% Votes)
  • Michele (1% Votes)
  • Tai (1% Votes)
  • Jason (0% Votes)
  • Joe (0% Votes)
  • Scot (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 73

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Andy
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Andy

Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
Andy
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  • gouis

    Anyone who doesn’t vote for Michele for the second two polls isn’t a real PRP fan.

    • Other Scott

      Why didn’t anyone tell me a requirement for being a PRP fan is being a shameless troll?

      • gouis

        Thought that was pretty self-evident.

        • Other Scott

          I’m just laying low for now, all my shameless trolling will come out when Jon Misch wins S34.

          • If that happens, you can be the guest host of the podcast for the finale recap. Mostly because I’ll have no interest in talking about it.

          • sharculese

            Serious question – do you really think Jon can win Survivor? I mean, he’s an okay player, but he had a ton of blindspots in SJDS that were mostly related to a tendency to see the best in people that is admirable, but maybe not something you expect in a winner.

          • gouis

            Is Jon the yin to Tyson’s yang?

          • SpicyMayoJaySimpson

            Is this a reference to the Steel Cage Showdown theme (or the mirror theme if that floats your boat)?

          • Roswulf

            I think the pool of people who “can” win Survivor is way larger than we like to think. There’s so much randomness to the game.

            I mean, Kass gets lucky on a crapshoot of a final three challenge, WOO wins Survivor. If Woo can do it, Jon Misch round 2 can do it. Unless by “it” we mean make me love him, in which case Woo stands alone…well, not alone, but a good ways away from Jon Misch.

          • Kemper Boyd

            I think you are right on the pool of players who can win being big but I think it’s very situational, do I think Jon Misch can win any other season of Survivor than SJDS? not so much, could he have won SJDS? hell yes.

          • Other Scott

            Jon wasn’t really far off winning San Juan Del Sur. You get a lesser player in the Natalie spot, and his 5 person fall-on-the-sword alliance is probably enough to give him the game. In general, if Fabio can win, who’s basically a less intelligent version of Jon, Jon can win.

            Do I think he can win in an All Star season? I don’t know. Someone who played like he did in SJDS can’t, but we’ve seen players come back and fix fairly major mistakes before. If he can be a little more suspicious and start seeing the game from the other player’s perspectives, he’s got the social game and the basic knowledge of strategy to do it.

          • Alycia Swift

            And Jaclyn, while not genius herself, hit me as the smarter player although she played emotionally at times (the guys were mean to me so let’s switch alliances).

          • sharculese

            “(the guys were mean to me so let’s switch alliances)”

            This really is a pretty sensible decision, though. They were at the merge with two groups of equal power, both with a scheming mastermind at their head. In that situation, why not group up with the side you think you’ll be better able to tolerate for the next 20 days?

          • Kemper Boyd

            I thought the group they got into was much better for Jaclyn as a player but not for Jon. If we treat them as separate players in a ride or die alliance then going with the women was a better decision.

          • sharculese

            Jon and Missy were probably the tightest non-loved one pair in the game though, so going with Jeremy did give him that.

          • Kemper Boyd

            I wasn’t neccesarily just meaning going with Jeremy, Jon could have been the one eyed man in the land of the blind with the guys but he was the one eyed guy where Natalie could see perfectly fucking fine.

          • Kemper Boyd

            No. He is not that smart, he’s an example of a player who was in their perfect situation to win but a better player got them. SJDS was the perfect opportunity for Jon Misch or Keith to win, both would struggle to get the votes at the end in a returnee season (Keith was fine in Cambodia, did essentially the same thing as SJDS but would have lost to Jeremy, Wentworth or Spencer had he got to final 3).

          • Other Scott

            I’m going to get made fun of for this, but in my mind Jon Misch is smarter than a lot of people here give him credit for. To compare him to Keith is just sort of insulting.

          • sharculese

            I wouldn’t say Jon is dumb, but in SJDS he came off as excessively naive, and I question if he can overcome that, especially in an all-star season.

          • Other Scott

            Yes, I agree and said as much in my response to your question of whether he can win.

          • His problem wasn’t that he was dumb. He was goofy, and he thought he was more of a mastermind than he was.

            My problem with him is more about him being bland as shit.

          • andythesaint

            Blandness activates ALL of John’s rage centers.

          • Prom King

            Well I will give him some credit: he is probably a bit smarter than Ketih.

          • Kemper Boyd

            He’s probably smart enough in real life. I don’t think he’s got massive game play intelligence. Keith obviously has zero. I’m just saying Keith’s best possible situation for winning a season of Survivor was SJDS with those guys on the jury.

          • gouis

            What’s the record for winners from a particular (all newbie) season? Whatever it is, I want SJDS to break it just for comedy sake.

          • sharculese

            There aren’t any all newbie seasons that have had more than one returnee win. It’s Amber, Parvati, Sandra, Cochran, Tyson, and Jeremy.

          • gouis

            God I want Jon to win SJDS just to see what happens. We all might have to group host the pod while the guys recover from their coma.

          • andythesaint

            Hey, I did once say that Jon Misch was going to win Survivor.

          • Purplerockmatt

            and Rob M. but your point still stands

          • Kemper Boyd

            Boston Rob does not count and I don’t think Tyson should either.

          • Other Scott

            Why not, they still originated in Marquesas and Tocantins respectively?

          • Kemper Boyd

            yeah but they failed time 2, so by the time they won they have asterixs.

          • Other Scott

            No season has more than two. (Australia, Marquesas, Cook Islands, South Pacific, Tocantins and San Juan Del Sur)

    • So you’re the bastard that’s going to deny Cydney her unanimous victory this week.

      • gouis

        Don’t forget that Aubry fan doing god’s work.

        • Kemper Boyd

          Someone voted for Tai. Yeah he won immunity but he voted for someone in his alliance who didn’t go home and he spilled the secret of the superidol without any need to. Who on earth thinks he was the MVP?

          • Mike Hirsch

            Maybe for entertainment purposes? (I voted for Cydney.)

          • As much as I love Tai, I cannot vote for him this week for MVP. I think I made myself pretty clear in the liveblog who I think was the MVP last week-Cydney.

      • Diego Armando

        I would honestly consider putting the votes out player on the episode MVP poll. They still were on the episode and could have gone out in a blaze of glory.

        • andythesaint

          I considered it. But then decided that it would make me too angry if we all got too cute and voted for someone who just lost and decided not to.

    • andythesaint

      All. Three.

      • Roswulf

        Damn it, the whole point of question three is to take about anything other than Michele’s inevitable win.

        • Kemper Boyd

          Question 3 was to allow arseholes like me and Gouis to vote for Michele to win and still have an actual real opinion who we think will win.

    • Kemper Boyd

      It’s basically a point of pride now.

    • Disgruntled Goat

      Wait, who is Michele again?

  • Purplerockmatt

    also sorry for the nonsensical ramblings in this week section, i was typing on my phone while distracted by a deposition

    • Purple Rock Emma

      “Ohhh I’m Matt and my job is actually important and effects people’s lives.”

      • *affects

        • Violina23

          *high five*

        • Purple Rock Emma

          Nothing to see here. Now you look crazy!

          • Hornacek

            *cray

      • Purplerockmatt

        i mean …. yea

  • sharculese

    COMPLETELY FAKE PREDICTION: Kyle is going home this week. Last week the editors shoehorned in him talking about his daughter because it was too good to leave on the floor and they had to get it in before he went. Now that it’s been aired, he’s fodder.

    I don’t really believe any of the above, I’m exhausted from the analysis of what that scene really meeeeaaans, man.

    • gouis

      I almost voted for him so it’s not far fetched.

      • sharculese

        I honestly think he could go home this week, just not for the reason I gave.

        • gouis

          But if he’s not a winner why show him in the edit at all? JASON/MICHELE TIED WINNERS CONFIRMED.

  • Mike Hirsch

    The OWM (Obvious Winner Michele) isn’t going anywhere, so that leaves 8 people, and of those 8, 5 seem to be aligned, and then Tai doing who knows what, so…barring Super Idols, I say the likeliest suspects to go home would be Scot, Jason, or Tai. I’d think Jason would be more likely to play his idol, so…flip a coin and say Scot.

    • Kemper Boyd

      Look why at this point are you targeting OWM, Julia or Joe? They are soft targets, you’ve got Tai who is good at challenges, Scot and Kyle who are troublemakers at camp and Aubry and Debbie who are seen are thinky.

      • Mike Hirsch

        I’m not targeting OWM, I would never do that, due to her OW-ing-ness. Mostly I’m looking at the three people who seem to be outside the alliance. Oh, and maybe Cydney. But I’ll still go with Scot. He’s a big tree and big trees break. Whereas Tai is a leaf on the wind. Watch how he soa…wait, no, scratch that analogy.

        • Kemper Boyd

          It was a general you, hypothesising you as the contestant. Basically Why would anyone be targeting OWM.

          • Mike Hirsch

            Ah, don’t mind me then. I get my general you and specific you confused all the time.

  • tocantins

    I think Cydney is going home this week. After destroying the Brawn alliance, Michelle doesn’t need Cydney anymore. So she will continue her Tony strategy by voting her out, as Cydney is a FTC threat.

    • Mike Hirsch

      I see this as entirely plausible, and at the same time am having a chuckle at Michele being compared to Tony.

  • Max_Jets

    I’ll dissent with the majority and choose Debbie for MVP. The 3 people this vote was obviously good for were the 3 brains. I don’t think Cydney would have been so willing to make this move had Debbie not bonded with her at the tribe swap. She also did a great job answering Jeff’s questions at tribal council too, especially when she jumped on Tai’s comments about the super idol. I’m worried this might be the beginning of the end for Cydney, but I really hope not.

    • Roswulf

      I think this raises a question of what MVP means. Certainly Cydney controlled the vote. Within this three day period, she did the most things that worked.

      But ultimately Cydney’s machinations didn’t increase her chance of victory (from an island, not an edit perspective) as much as Debbie (or hell, as Joe- JOE!) playing relatively passively for a round.

      I still give the title to Cydney. Her tactical maneuvering was sufficiently impressive that I’m willing to ignore that strategically she swum in a very pretty and elaborate circle and ended up where she started- as a key member of a majority alliance, lacking really close allies within that alliance and thus figuring as something of an intra-alliance swing vote.

      • Kemper Boyd

        I agree with you. I vote MVP based on best game play over the 3 days (not necessarily best move for themselves long term) and best character in the episode. Cydney was both. It’s a shame I don’t think the move will benefit her in the end. I think she’s our 5/6 boot as once the men are gone she’s obviously the biggest target.

  • Violina23

    I would have voted for Tai’s chicken if it was a choice…

    • Roswulf

      Eh, Tai’s Chicken Edgic is too heavy on OTTP- with none of the complicated nuance you see from a REAL Survivor superstar like Michele.

      BTW, does it make me a bad person that I am kind of looking forward to the scene after they Tai gets voted off when the assassins butcher and eat his chicken friend? I think it makes me a bad person.

      • I read so where in an Edgic/Edit reading Reddit thread, that Tai mentioned early on that he would leave after the chicken dies. So as soon as the chicken is dead, Tai is gone.

        • Violina23

          Does he he wake up with the chicken next to his head or something?

          • Roswulf

            You know, Kyle/Jason did bluster a lot about being more-Russell-than-Russell…

          • I would be shockingly down for a Survivor version of The Godfather.

          • Mike Hirsch

            If there was a Survivor contestant that sounded like Frank Pentangeli, he (or she) would be one of my all-time favorites.

          • Is Tony the closest to that?

          • Mike Hirsch

            I suppose so…but he’s really nowhere near raspy enough.

          • Maybe if Tony and Mike got into a blender together…

          • Assistant Dragon Slayer

            Dan “Alligator Shoes” Lembo. From Survivor Nicaragua, though, so there’s no shame in not remembering him (and it probably reflects badly on me that I do).

          • Assistant Dragon Slayer

            I would shockingly be down for a Survivor version of Vietnamese chicken.

          • It sounds insanely good, as I slowly realize that I have not anything all day.

          • No, I think Tai will finally end up fixing his famous Vietnamese chicken dish for everybody after he or someone has killed it.

  • Hornacek

    Am I missing something? Why is there no “Fifth Elimination” row in the chart?

    • sharculese

      Because everyone assumed the elimination in episode 4 would be the medevac, so they didn’t predict based on the possibility that two people would go home that episode.

      • Hornacek

        Ah, I forgot about that. Everyone assumed that episode would just have an evac and not a vote-off. Would have made more sense too.

    • andythesaint

      What Sharculese said. They did a double elimination with Alecia as the fifth elimination. We didn’t predict for that.

  • Ethan Kyle

    I had a dream last night Scot got eliminated so heres hoping, then again I want it to be Michelle so I can laugh at all the people who are like ZOMG WINNER EDIT GODESS