Survivor Millennials vs Gen X Week 1 Predictions and Poll

Alright, time to make with the predicting again. Because last season of you all telling us the obvious winner and us making fun of you for it and you being right was SO MUCH FUN, we decided to keep doing it! This is your first chance to tell us who that Obvious Winner is.

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Andy: You know of all the bullshit I spit on our preview podcast, I really think I nailed the first boot prediction. NAILED. IT. No need for more explanation.

John: If the Millennials lose that first challenge, Michelle ends up taking the fall because it’s easy to talk about voting her out while she’s off trying to do empirical research on the existence of dragons. If Gen X somehow falls to The Youths, CeCe goes home first- probably because of some incredibly minor mistake in the challenge.

Matt: Everyone expects the Millennials to win challenges because they are young, but what they forget (or dont realize) is that old people are still fine at first, but the day after the physical challenge is when they’ll feel the pain and be sore. They’ll be holding their back, whining about their knees and wondering “when did playing paintball become so painful? Am I really that old? I need to work out more!” So yeah, the Gen-Xers should be okay at first before they start losing a lot. So for the Millennials, I’ll say Michelle is going home for two reasons: 1) she is completely and totally batshit crazy and that is something you cannot hide, and 2) I think the Millennials will be conscious enough of the racial bias to try and be different, but still want to target a “weak” woman. So bye bye crazy person.

But if Gen-X loses I’ll say Cece is going home. Survivor does have a bad history of African-American women being the first boot. So playing the cynical bad odds here. If not her, it’ll probably be Jessica, but I’ll buck the trend and go Cece.

Mark: Alright, a new season, another chance to beat you guys at predictions. I think it’s safe to say the Millennials are the favorites for immunity, so when Gen X loses, I can see an older woman taking the fall. If I had to choose between a CeCe and Jessica for the first boot, I’d probably go with the latter. (Mostly because it would suck to have a minority as the first boot yet again). If for some reason the Millennial tribe gets lost on the way back to camp after the challenge and finds themselves at the Tribal Council set, they might boot Figgy? Who knows.

Emma: I’ll admit a lot of this is wishful thinking, but I also can legitimately see Michelle being the first boot. Michaela may be religious, but Michelle and Will seem to be the only ones who might be evangelical about it, and Michelle’s supposed Communism will turn off Reagonomics-loving Will. If she tries too hard to flirt, like she seems to plan, Jay will be turned off by her religious convictions, and Adam wouldn’t fall for it. Taylor might, but that’ll just make everyone want to get rid of her more, so he can be their dumb pet, not hers. Plus she just seems super weird, and not in a Hannah and Zeke way. I think I’ve named everyone on this tribe except Mari.

This is a tough one, because I see several viable options. Paul is old and might be a lot to deal with, Sunday is the classic “older woman” who could be a target. But ultimately, I think it will be Rachel. She seems like she will annoy people, and not unlike Michelle, like she’ll try to flirt too much and rub people the wrong way (phrasing). Also, as unfortunate as it is, she is a minority woman, so the odds are not in her favor here, based on past precedent.

 
Andy John Matt
Mark Emma
Readers
Millennials
First Out

Hannah Michelle
Michelle Figgy
Michelle question-mark
Gen X
First Out
Jessica
CeCe CeCe Jessica Rachel
question-mark

Andy: The last time they did youngs vs olds, a simple-minded, careful, handsome young bro improbably won the whole thing. That’s the sort of success rate I can’t ignore. Taylor it is!

John: As I said in the cast preview podcast, Adam is the winner of this season. Here’s a fun fact: Stanford graduates have won every time they’ve played Survivor*.
*I just made that up. But Yul won, and he was a Stanford grad.

Mark: As far as a winner, this is a really hard season to predict. Everyone has their flaws, but I’m down to two. Despite his excruciating endorsement of the Urban Dictionary and Woo-like levels of chill, I can see Taylor winning just enough challenges and getting along with people to go far. That said, I also really like Michaela’s attitude and she seems to have a good head on her shoulders. Possible winner or Cydney 2.0? After a coin flip, I’m going with Taylor. A fittingly disappointing winner for an underwhelming cast.

Matt: I think the winner will be someone near the dividing line and Ken is the youngest Gen-Xer. He will come under fire at some point as an obvious threat, but I think he will befriend people and is charming. I think people will think him a lunkhead, which will take some pressure off him by the more strategically-minded in the game.

Emma: I truly have no strong feelings towards anyone in this cast, in terms of a winner. There are people who seem interesting to watch, there are people who seem bad, and there are a lot of people who seem very middle of the road. But apparently picking a winner is “mandatory” and “one of the few things you have to do here, come on, Emma” so I guess I’ll go with… I don’t know man, let’s go with Zeke. He’ll get people to like him enough to last through the beginning, and he’s not athletic enough to be a threat at the merge. Maybe his personality will distract from his supposed strategic acumen.

Andy John Matt
Mark Emma
Readers
Preseason
Winner
Pick
Taylor Adam
Ken
Taylor
Zeke question-mark

So there you have it. Make your picks below and don’t be afraid to give your explanation in the comments. We can be wrong together! (Note: we’re only doing preseason winner picks. It won’t be a weekly thing).

If Millennials go to Tribal Council, who will get voted out?

  • Hannah (22% Votes)
  • Michelle (22% Votes)
  • Michaela (13% Votes)
  • Figgy (12% Votes)
  • Will (10% Votes)
  • Jay (8% Votes)
  • Adam (5% Votes)
  • Taylor (3% Votes)
  • Zeke (3% Votes)
  • Mari (2% Votes)

Total Voters: 60

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If Gen X goes to Tribal Council, who will get voted out?

  • Sunday (22% Votes)
  • CeCe (17% Votes)
  • Jessica (17% Votes)
  • Rachel (15% Votes)
  • Paul (13% Votes)
  • Lucy (11% Votes)
  • David (4% Votes)
  • Ken (0% Votes)
  • Chris (0% Votes)
  • Bret (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 61

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Preseason poll: Who will win Survivor: Millennials vs Gen X?

  • Mari (25% Votes)
  • Adam (16% Votes)
  • Michaela (10% Votes)
  • Michelle (7% Votes)
  • Chris (5% Votes)
  • Taylor (4% Votes)
  • Zeke (4% Votes)
  • Jay (4% Votes)
  • Lucy (3% Votes)
  • Ken (3% Votes)
  • Will (3% Votes)
  • Figgy (3% Votes)
  • David (3% Votes)
  • Bret (3% Votes)
  • Sunday (3% Votes)
  • Rachel (1% Votes)
  • Paul (1% Votes)
  • Hannah (1% Votes)
  • Jessica (1% Votes)
  • CeCe (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 73

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Andy
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Andy

Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
Andy
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  • Other Scott

    Going home because of a minor mistake in the challenge is known as the “Jessica DeBen”. Or really it’s the “Fiji” in general.

    It’s also the worst reason for someone to go home, both dramatically and strategically.

    • Kemper Boyd

      Darnell definitely DeBen’d Khao Rong

    • Roswulf

      I think the DeBen has a certain appeal dramatically in the right circumstances to mark a tribe as utter doofuses.

      The example that springs to mind is the partial-DeBen of Jolanda in Palau, a solid intro to the long running “Ulong are hopeless and awful” plot.

      • Other Scott

        Yeah, that was only a partial DeBen though, because it was mostly because Stephenie wanted to be the boss.

  • turgid_legume

    CBS has posted their usual preview of the first eight minutes of the premiere on their Youtube channel. Even in that brief glimpse, there are already signs of Michaela bringing the sass and giving GIF-worthy reaction-face to stupid shit. I hope she does well, but I’m not even going to bother trying to try to pick a winner. (Oh and if you thought Will was going to do anything to hide his age, big nopers on that.)

    Also, your regular verification of the utter incompetence of the CBS social media team: the copy-and-paste boilerplate used in the Youtube video description is the text from S31.

    • HBO CEO of Tits

      Ugh, I don’t know if I can do this. They are gonna make me hate all of these people if they continue to make them talk about this generational nonsense.

      • prettyboyprobst

        Haven’t seen it yet but I feel your pain. Remember, it is bound to become less and less about that stuff, and the first minutes of the premier episode were always sure to be awful like that.

    • corndogshuffle

      I thought Michaela had potential based off of her preview video. Now I *know* she will be awesome.

  • gouis

    At first I thought I was crazy for taking Taylor in a draft #2 overall given all the reactions to him on podcasts. Now I’m concerned precisely because two of you have him winning.

    Also, no women?

    • gouis

      Also Paul is so over the top I kind of think it might be him first.

      • Saturday Night Palsy

        Paul is gonna be the king of the Gen X-ers! He can play the drum solo to “Pour Some Sugar on Me” with one arm tied behind his back!

        • andythesaint

          No one could possibly play the drums to Pour Some Sugar on Me with one arm.

    • andythesaint

      Easy, gouis. They let a woman win last season.

      • Other Scott

        They let Sophie, Kim and Denise win back to back to back! (Then proceeded to have only one woman win the next 6 seasons, so they clearly thought that was overboard.)

        • Kemper Boyd

          You joke but I really think after 3 women in a row there was a production meeting where someone said “so, how do we cast this so we don’t have a fourth chick win?”

          • DrVanNostrand

            Spoiler alert: That person was Probst.

    • Kemper Boyd

      I took Michelle just cos I really didn’t want a second Gen Xer.

  • Mike Hirsch

    I went with Michelle and Sunday as my first boot picks. Michelle because I really can’t get past that whole dragons thing. Sunday because she’s a bit older and a potentially annoying voice.
    For my winner pick, I went with Michelle as well, because I will invariably be wrong about my first boot pick, and likely so wrong that I would pick the winner as my first boot.
    Also because OWM.

  • Black Dynamite

    I think Michelle will be the first boot for the Millennials tribe. I think the tribe will shrug their shoulders and vote her out for being the most annoying.

    I feel that CeCe is the most probable answer for first boot on Gen X but I don’t want to see that happen. It would be nice to see a black woman last beyond the first vote. So I went with Sunday. Sunday will be seen as the challenge liability and booted.

    My winner pick is Chris. He seems smart and knowledgeable of the game. I think people would want to align with him though he could be a huge target post merge. Plus I don’t want to give the give the kiss of death to my top Stamp of Approval players.

    I would be most surprised if Adam or Chris is the first boot.

    • Roswulf

      I think the least likely first boots are going to be “Physically impressive guys on Gen X.” That tribe is going to be aware of the physical mismatch, and unless a strong guy is SUPER aggravating, they aren’t going to be the first boot target.

      So Ken and Chris, I guess.

  • tocantins

    For me, if the young go to tribal, Hannah is voted out. I feel that a “nerdy woman” archetype needs a lot of support to be viable, and I don’t see how she can find that in this cast. At most Zeke could stand by her, but even that is questionable. She will be bad at the challenge, no one will connect to her, and she will be an easy vote out. Michelle I think is being grossly underrated. She is pretty. And, at least in the beginning, if you have the choice between living with eye candy or not, you always choose eye candy. (Especially if the tribe is all less than 30 years old.)

    If the old people go to tribal (which is less likely), I think that Sunday is going home. Old people are just more traditional and challenge-focused, they will want to keep the tribe strong.

    Finally, for winner, I pick Mari. She is athletic, non-threatening, and seems to have awesome social skills (her channel does have 7 million subscribers in YouTube, including, I was surprised to find out, me).

    • Sylvisual

      I don’t doubt Hannah is on the outs, but if for some reason Millennials go first (a big if), I think someone who is bossy and annoying will stand out more than one who is quirky and annoying. But yeah, Hannah is no Aubry or Shirin.

      • EmAndScoutInBK

        See, I disagree – I think Hannah’s going to be more like-able than it seems. Being funny to a screen and being funny with people are two totally different things. It’s boring AF out there, so if she’s nice enough and actually does make people laugh, she has a chance to stick around. If she gets to the merge, she’s golden. I also think the millennials are more likely to dominate the challenges, so their likely first boots are probably safe for a while.

      • prettyboyprobst

        Why not? Haven’t read too much about her and I expect her to have a difficult standing on her tribe, but I could also see Hannah surpassing an Aubry or Shirin in terms of gameplay, if (and by) she survives the early episodes (to beat Aubrey in terms of placement will be tough).

    • prettyboyprobst

      At first I liked so much about Mari, but she is the oldest on her tribe and pretty well-off already, I assume. This being such a young cast, I can see some people recognizing her and I’m not sure where that would lead, but it’s certainly a risk involved. Still kinda hope she Spradlins it, though.

      Agree with your points about Hannah (not sure why she would be especially bad in challenges, though) and the pretty girl, as well as Sunday being in danger. Other candidates are Figgy on the young tribe and Rachel for the older tribe.

      For a winner pick, I landed somewhere between Bret, Taylor and Zeke. If I had to decide right now (which I guess I do), I’d say Zeke.

      Although, in my estimation, I’ll end up rooting the most for the African-American ladies.

  • EmAndScoutInBK

    I genuinely have no idea who is going to win this season. I’m actually stumped and have no basis for any prediction. Usually, I’m able to settle on somebody, but man, I got nothing this year.

  • BobbyKe

    I think Michelle out early makes no sense. She’s a pretty, likable & athletic girl (2 Time State Champ In Track In High School)
    I think she’s certain to be part of the majority alliance. The religion will go over well with this tribe. I think there’s a lot in her favor in this group

    To me she’s weird but genuinely weird & not putting it on which is much easier to handle compared to someone like Hannah who is playing up her personality & so badly wants to be the weird girl of the season it’s annoying. Michelle to me is charming & amusing. Hannah & Will both come across as more likely early boots

    • andythesaint

      I like the way you think, BobbyKe.

      I do think people are applying their own standards or even standards that have applied in the past rather than trying to anticipate what THIS tribe of ten people will think. I’m not sure that being young, vapid, and religious will play poorly with that group.

      • Roswulf

        So your saying you are willing to join me on the Will-train to the Ronald Reagan Memorial Library?

        • DrVanNostrand

          A Will-Michelle alliance? The communist and the Reagan conservative, brought together by their love of Jesus, and casual disregard for science? I smell a sitcom.

        • andythesaint

          Too far, Roswulf.

          • Roswulf

            You just don’t understand us millennials old man! We’re bringing trickle-down economics and vapidity to Survivor!

          • DrVanNostrand

            Trickle-down economics AND vapidity? Apparently you’re also bringing redundancy.

      • Mike Hirsch

        I bet Anna would have done much better with this group.

        • Roswulf

          To be fair, Anna did just fine in her original group, and then get torched by a REALLY unfavorable tribe swap twist (“Whoever you vote out, will be replaced with Anna’s closest ally!”)

          • Other Scott

            I can’t see “best player on the season” Michelle getting out of that either if her tribe had lost.

          • Hornacek

            Would that have been before or after Michele single-handedly lost the reward challenge for her tribe, she moped about it back at camp, Debbie joked that she might kill herself over it, and the rest of the tribe laughed?

          • Other Scott

            Before, actually!

            But Aubry still should have accounted for immunity beast Michele charging her way to the end!

          • Roswulf

            Yes, this is not a problem solved by the dark arts of “being generically meh” and “delivering confessionals wherein you describe major game events in a completely uninteresting way.”

      • DrVanNostrand

        You may be right, and if so, my fantasy strategy is gold!