Survivor Millennials vs Gen X Week 8 Predictions and Polls

It’s merge time, following a swap where majority tribes voted against each other every time. So this should be easy to map out. Are you all ready to vote today?

pr_predictionsbnr_s33-2

Andy: It’s hard to say how these factions will come together. I think part of Jay’s calculus was thinking that Bret and Sunday will stay with him. I don’t think we’ve gotten the proper sense of how loyalties have shifted post-swap, even though all the voting results should have given us a clue. As a result of these divided loyalties, I don’t think the merge will show us two sides clashing, but a bunch of groups trying to set themselves up for future success. As a result, they’ll all punt on showing their cards this week, and instead go after the giant man who has been embarrassing them through a lot of the challenges (while it’s true that post-merge challenges aren’t necessarily tuned to a guy like Chris, that could be easy to forget coming this soon after the tribe portion of the game). Just as the first post-merge vote in Cambodia featured everyone coming together to vote out Kass, I think this time, they come together vote out Chris. Then the fight will begin next week.

John: Even though there’s a popular assumption that merge boot targets are often the most physically imposing players, they can just as often be people that are least likely to have an idol (or to be given an idol). Taylor seems like a safe target here, since they can be fairly certain he doesn’t have an idol, and at least a little confident that he won’t be given one. Jay, who we now know is a stone cold killer, is not going to use his idol to save Taylor.

Matt: I think there are more than two factions out there and that Chris will make an obvious target for them to band together against (also this will pay off the David betrays Chris one final time arc).

Mark: There are so many groups and subgroups in this merge that it makes predictions hard. I’m going to do it anyways. With Team Triforce, the remaining Gen-Xers, and Team NotJay up in the air, I’m going to say a duplicitous one like Michelle will take the blame, idol play or not. She’s on the outs with the nerds and the Vanua folks, and we’ve seen her tribe gang up on her for weeks. Plus, voting out an alpha male is obvious, and this season has been anything but obvious so far.

Emma: Survivor has never had a merge when there are three tribes, and with each tribe losing once and voting out someone from the majority, this is the most up-in-the-air the merge vote has been in a long, long time. Which is fun to watch, but exceedingly hard to predict. So while I don’t want this to be the case, I’m going to guess the tallest blade of grass will get cut down and go with Jay.


Andy John Matt
Mark Emma
Readers
First Boot Jessica CeCe CeCe Jessica Rachel
Sunday
Second
Boot
Figgy Figgy
Figgy Figgy
Figgy Figgy
Third
Boot

Lucy Paul Paul Bret
Paul
Paul
Fourth
Boot

Lucy Lucy
Lucy
Lucy
CeCe Lucy
Fifth Boot
Figgy CeCe
CeCe
Jessica
Taylor CeCe
Sixth Boot
Figgy Taylor
Figgy
Jessica
Figgy Taylor
Seventh Boot
Bret Bret
Sunday
Bret
Bret Bret
Eighth
Out

Chris
Taylor
Chris
Michelle
Jay
question-mark
Score
Preseason
Winner
Pick
Taylor Adam
Ken
Taylor
Zeke Mari

Make your picks below and don’t be afraid to give your explanation in the comments. 

Who will be the eighth boot of Survivor MvGX?

  • Taylor (27% Votes)
  • Jay (19% Votes)
  • Chris (15% Votes)
  • Michelle (11% Votes)
  • Bret (6% Votes)
  • Jessica (5% Votes)
  • Will (3% Votes)
  • Sunday (3% Votes)
  • Adam (3% Votes)
  • Ken (2% Votes)
  • Hannah (2% Votes)
  • David (2% Votes)
  • Zeke (2% Votes)

Total Voters: 65

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Andy
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Andy

Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
Andy
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  • Violina23

    I went with Bret. For reasons. Mostly the edit and his sudden presence.

    • Diego Armando

      He would be an easy target a threatening looking guy to flush out the idol vote.

  • Nick bommarito

    Which there merge I’m predicting two strong groups of 4. Group A consists of Ken, David, Jessica, and zeke; Group B consists of Jay Will Michael and Taylor. Adam and Hannah will go to one of these groups together, but it’s hard to say which one, but for this week it doesn’t matter where they go. That leaves Bret, Criss and Sundee as a group of 3 swing vote. If they go with group A (Ken’s group) they will vote out Jay or Taylor, if they go with group B ( Jay’s group) they will vote out Ken. I think Bret crisis and sundee will go with group A and vote out Taylor over Jay because Jay will win the immunity challenge. I could easily be wrong about how the alliance’s will be but that is by current prediction.

    • Kemper Boyd

      I don’t see how Ken Jessica and Zeke would be together and not take Adam with them as Adam was with Zeke and Ken.

    • Ms. Sweaterfan

      This was more or less my take on the situation, except I assumed that Adam would go wherever Zeke is regardless of what Hannah does (though Hannah may end up gravitating toward the Zeke-Adam duo anyway). I initially picked Jay over Taylor to go home, but I didn’t think about the fact that Jay will likely be immune, one way or another. Good call.

  • Saturday Night Palsy

    I wouldn’t be opposed to seeing Chris go home. Fantasy-wise it would be fantastic.

    • Kemper Boyd

      Not for me thanks?

      • Saturday Night Palsy

        Chris is holding you back! It’s Michelle that is your true points earner. Time to cut loose the dead weight, right?

        • Kemper Boyd

          or… I keep both…

          • Saturday Night Palsy

            Where’s the fun in that?

    • That’s fine I guess, since I won’t really need his points when Sunday wins this season.

      • Saturday Night Palsy

        See, Kemper Boyd showed more class in her response. Gloating is something I’ve always tried to stay away from. As the Wu Tang Clan like to say, “R-E-S-P-E-C”!

        • Also like the Wu Tang Clan, my fantasy team ain’t nothin’ to fuck wit. And they bomb atomically.

          • Saturday Night Palsy

            We’ll see how team ODJ does without the Chrizza. Begone, Ginger Giant!

  • Diego Armando

    I think this vote could go a few ways, but I think the two most likely outcomes are Jay and Bret. The Gen Xers could reform just due to wanting numbers and bring in Adam, Zeke and/or Hannah and go after Jay. I could also see AZH waiting a week to flip and getting rid of Bret, who has the fewest connections to them and David is more likely to want to be rid of.

    I think Chris, Taylor, Michelle, Ken and maybe Will could also be in danger.

    • HBO CEO of Tits

      Yeah, I voted Will for the lieutenant/safe target reasons.

  • Mike Hirsch

    I’m going with Jessica overplays her hand in trying to bring Taylor into the fold to vote out Adam, causing her alliance of David and Ken to rethink things and form a hastily thrown together alliance of David, Ken, Adam, Zeke, Hannah, Sunday, Bret and Chris to vote her out. Barring that happening, oh I don’t know, Michelle.

    • Saturday Night Palsy

      I think that she would discuss this with Ken first, and he would talk her out of it. Plus they voted out Taylor’s Girlfriend last tribal.

  • Black Dynamite

    Most likely merge boots.

    1. Chris
    2. Taylor
    3. Will
    4. Michelle
    5. Jay
    6. Bret
    7. Adam
    8. David
    9. Ken
    10. Hannah
    11. Jessica
    12. Zeke
    13. Sunday

    I predict that Jay, Will, Taylor and Michelle will both be solid and in the minority.

    Chris may be the bigger though with David and Zeke betraying him.

    • Man, you were spot on with your prediction, but not necessarily your list.

  • Crappy

    It’s gonna be Michelle IMO.

  • Max_Jets

    Chris needs to stick around for a few more episodes so that everyone can recognize that he’s great. My fingers are crossed for a Taylor boot.

  • Ms. Sweaterfan

    I wonder if there are enough people this season with basic knowledge of the game that they will consider the classic idol-evasive maneuver of voting for the least likely person? If they were to go that route, I would guess either Hannah or Sunday could be in trouble…

    • Diego Armando

      Adam, Bret, David, Hannah, Sunday, Will and Zeke are proclaimed fans of the show and I think at least 2 of them could figure that strategy out.

    • Sadie

      I think if they try to evade the idol it’s Sunday for one side, Michelle or maybe Will for the other.

    • Kemper Boyd

      If Jay, Will, Taylor and Michelle don’t bring anyone with them it’s a pretty easy split vote to negate the idol say Jessica, Ken, Sunday, Bret and Chris on Jay and Hannah, Adam, Zeke and David on Taylor then boom if Jay plays the idol Taylor is gone on revote. If Jay or Taylor win immunity sub in Will for the second person.

      • Sadie

        Basically it’s essential for Jay and Will to keep/bring in Sunday and Bret and hope they can get Chris. Taylor’s connection to Jess is extremely superficial and Michelle hasn’t built anything with anyone on Vanua.

    • Alycia Swift

      They used to do that all the time. That’s why Jeffra was voted out.

  • Alycia Swift

    I think it is either going to be Jay or Will if the others get together. My guess is Bret and Sunday return to GenX and Chris. Then, Hannah defects because she is tired of being left out of things (and she seems to get along well with Sunday and wants to go back to Zeke and Adam, her fellow outcasts). Hannah, Chris, Bret and Sunday join Zeke, Adam, Ken, Sunday and David and try and oust the next biggest challenge threat – either Michele or Jay but Hannah convinces them that Jay is more dangerous and gets Michele to flip as well so its Will or Jay and Jay uses his idol and its Will or is blindsided. I feel like I’m missing a name.

    • Kemper Boyd

      Taylor…

      • Alycia Swift

        Thinking about it, I think you are right. I actually hope that you are.

  • Assistant Dragon Slayer

    OT: FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCCCCCCCCCCCCCCKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    • indescribable hat

      Right?

    • I’m #blindsided.

    • Kemper Boyd

      I’m so sorry you guys got caught up in the utter shit show that is 2016. This is a disaster. I’m so so sorry.

      • corndogshuffle

        Thanks Kemper. It’s even more devastating now that we can see Clinton will carry the popular vote. Just one day ago I was bet my life certain that Clinton would win easily.

        • Kemper Boyd

          Her speech broke me man. She’s amazing, I love her.

          • Purple Rock Emma

            It came on the radio when I was driving to work and I started crying again.

        • Figaro

          It’s so bizarre to me as a non-US citizen that the popular vote (which is basically whoever gets the majority of votes, person for person, right?) doesn’t actually decide the outcome, and instead you have the weird, out-dated electoral college vote as the determiner even though it doesn’t seem to accurately reflect the preferences of the overall population.

          • We have a lot of weird quirks to our elections- things that made sense two centuries ago but never changed with the times. It’s partly because nobody wants to change them because change is such a terrifying prospect.

          • corndogshuffle

            I’ve read that part of the reason it exists is to help check the power of states like California/New York and prevent them from dictating to the rest of the US by themselves, but I definitely see how it looks weird. I’m still not sure how much I like it or hate it. I’ve seen a few other reasons but this kind of makes some sense to me.

            If they did it by “who won the most states” Trump would have won by an even wider margin. As someone who couldn’t be paid to vote for Trump I’m no longer completely convinced I’d change the electoral college.

    • Roswulf

      This season of Survivor has in its own way been weirdly prescient.

      Anyways, I’m now absolutely sure that Jay goes home. Because economics, or something.

    • Black Dynamite

      I’m extremely broken up by this. I trusted and believe that as a nation we would empathically reject fascism. I’m stunned, I’m angry but more than anything I’m so fucking scared. I’ve never been so afraid in my life. As I write this, I’m on break at work fighting a losing battle to hold back tears. My heart is shattered.

      • Alycia Swift

        I could not sleep last night. I did not leave work until 10:30 p.m. (partially because of what I was writing) but I kept checking the web. Then when I got home after midnight, I turned on the TV. I kept texting my husband because I just needed someone to talk to – and he was fast asleep so he awoke to a ton of texts. Watching the scenes from Javits was heartbreaking. I’m also extremely broken up by this. I finally crashed at about 2 a.m. because I have to get up at 6-6:30 and I kept getting physically ill and waking up. I’ve also been fighting a losing battle to hold back tears.

        I came here a couple of times to see if anyone had posted.

        • I think most of us are probably still in shock. Particularly since there was such confidence among statisticians and pundits that this was so highly unlikely.

          • indescribable hat

            Nate Silver had it around 30% that morning, which is not that unlikely. I think a lot of us wanted to take solace in what should have looked like a slim and unreliable lead.

          • Silver was being criticized for hedging so much, and it bothered him to the point that he went on some fantastic Twitter rants about it. Other prediction models had Hillary’s odds much higher.

          • And that is what some of my Trump supporting FB friends have been crowing about for the past two days because “liberal media” only saw what they wanted to see.

          • Silver had already gotten burned hard by that in the primaries, which is probably what caused him to hedge so much about the general. And even then, he didn’t hedge enough.

          • Yeap, but I think he even said that the election would be determined by the undecided voters…and he was sorta right.

          • indescribable hat

            Yeah but he’s the prediction model I have (unreasonably) absolute faith in.

      • In 2008 when the results were announced, I was completely stunned by what had just happened. I was texting friends, drinking, and staring at my TV in disbelief. I was genuinely surprised by my fellow Americans.

        The exact same applies to last night. For completely different reasons.

      • corndogshuffle

        I’m just numb right now. I don’t even know what to feel other than pure disbelief. I’m not sure I’ve fully processed this all yet. I’m sure it doesn’t help that I was so worried I couldn’t fall asleep until four and I woke up for work at 6:30.

        The only plus is that today I still got to get up and go to work with kids who I love teaching. So there’s that at least.

      • Purple Rock Emma

        I am so sorry, man. I’ve been crying too. I only hope we can galvanize the left and fight apathy, make people care again. I don’t have much money, but I’m going to donate what I can to important causes. As my newly-elected Senator, Kamala Harris said: We will fight.

        But on that note, I know it’s easier for some people to stand up than others. Please be safe. We’re here for you.

        • Black Dynamite

          I greatly appreciate the words. I actually got another stunner when the person I considered my best friend actually voted for Trump (Florida voter).It’s good to know I have a great place of support.

          • Purple Rock Emma

            Ugh, I’m so sorry. I’ve been feeling very grateful for the people in my life who are feeling this loss as strongly as I am. We definitely have your back here.

          • sharculese

            Cut that person out of your life. Completely. Trust me. It sucks, but it’s better in the long run. A couple of years ago I caught one of my best friends joking on Facebook with one of his Army buddies about a photo of SS troops having a snowball fight around a cattle car full of concentration camp victims, and I had to do it.

            Blowing all ties hurt a lot, but in the long run it’s a thing I’m glad I did. If people don’t have your back, don’t trust them to be your friends.

          • I don’t know that cutting all ties is a one-size-fits-all solution. It was clearly correct in your case, but I think there is a large gray area here.

            There is a difference between the obstinate and unreasonable voter the fully embraced the Trump rhetoric and the politically ignorant person who just read Hillary was corrupt on Facebook and thought Trump was good on The Apprentice. My main worry is that cutting ties with the latter type causes that person to retreat to an echo chamber that only further radicalizes him/her.

            Either way, I feel for you, Black Dynamite.

          • Violina23

            I agree with John. My anecdotal experience is that pretty much everyone I met who voted for Trump hated both candidates, but found Hillary’s misdeeds worse than Trump’s. As a political moderate (socially liberal, but with some fiscally conservative positions), I can see where they are coming from — I don’t even disagree with their criticisms of Hillary, but Trump was not an acceptable alternative.

            I don’t think [all of] these voters are all inherently hateful people. But I think they are completely missing the point as to why entire segments of the population are feeling scared and threatened by this result. I think we can do good things by keeping the conversation open. I think everyone can stand to learn something from each other.

            And in the meantime, I will continue to teach my children to be tolerant, kind, and to celebrate
            differences instead of fear them. I’m hoping to also teach them not to throw tantrums when things don’t go their way, but that’s a work in progress 😉

            *group PRP hug*

          • indescribable hat

            I am so sorry.

      • Hornacek

        I’m still in shock that a majority enough people to get 270 electoral colleges decided they didn’t care if the government got rid of:

        – Health care
        – a plan to fight climate change
        – any chance of background checks for gun owners
        – same sex marriages
        – homosexuals being allowed in the military
        – protection for Muslims
        – environment protection laws
        – protection for LGBTQ people
        – funding for Planned Parenthood
        – protection for any minority
        – a chance that the next 1-3 Supreme Court judges would uphold a woman’s right to choose
        – the general opinion that grabbing a woman by the pussy disqualifies you from holding public office

        Strap yourselves in, America. You asked for this. You’re gonna get it.

        • Black Dynamite

          That’s a scary long list.

          • Hornacek

            The supreme court picks is the scariest. There’s one vacancy now, and they say there might be 2 more in the next 4 years. One of his picks on his list from a few months ago is a judge who says “Roe v Wade is the worst legal decision in U.S. history”. These are the type of judges that Trump might get to put on the court, dooming an entire generation.

        • Sadly, your list also leaves out a whole host of economic stupidity. But I understand not caring about that as much.

          The one thing from that list that I hold out hope for is marriage. Even in his gloom and doom speech at the RNC, Trump mentioned wanting his party to accept that gay people have that right.

          It’ll be small comfort when he threatens to send tanks to the next BLM rally, though.

  • Something Quirky

    Can I ask an unrelated question, please?

    Will the players in next season have seen this season? They wouldn’t have, yeah?

    • Sadie

      Nope they would have filmed all of next season before this one aired

  • Sadie

    ugh

    • Yup.

      • Assistant Dragon Slayer

        @purplerockjohn:disqus, I guess you changed your mind, but actually maybe a separate post would be a good idea. I (we) desperately need tonight’s episode and the community here as an escape, and a separate post would hopefully wall off the election discussion from the Survivor talk.

        • I have a feeling that both this thread and the liveblog tonight will be filled with election discussion. I discussed doing a separate post with the staff, and we voted against.

          • corndogshuffle

            I think your polling data was off, votes are in and somehow you decided overwhelmingly to have a separate post.

            On a more serious note… fucking ugh.

          • andythesaint

            The basic thinking is twofold: one, a post with a specific title about the election could draw in other voices that we’re not looking for (since the intent of the post would be for the benefit of the community that is already here) and two, convos here go where they want to go. Trying to separate them out by telling people to stick to Survivor or whatever in one post would be pointless.

            I think we all know that this is a safe space. I hope we do.

        • indescribable hat

          I want Survivor for escapism, but it is not a good place to forget we live in an extremely racist country.

          Also I’m kind of mad at Mark Burnett.

  • Do you all want a page to discuss the election results? Or would you rather do it here?