Survivor Millennials vs Gen X Week 9 Predictions and Polls

We’ve seen how the merge shaped up, with an overwhelming majority taking charge. So this should be easy to predict, right? Wait… we should never, EVER suggest ANYTHING is easy predict ever again.

pr_predictionsbnr_s33-2

Next Boot Predictions

Andy: Even though I’m having trouble figuring out how it could happen when this is so obviously a boot that should be split among Jay and Taylor to get rid of Jay’s suspected idol, I’m still fairly convinced that the edit is pointing toward an Adam boot. Maybe it really is something as simple as the uncomplicated Gen Xers fearing the unfair nature of his “advantage” teaming up with the now much-less scary Tri-Force (hey! There finally is only three of them) to get rid of it before it could hurt them. Especially since we’ve already seen that Jessica and Ken are weary of Adam as a player.

John: Taylor is my boot pick mostly because he’s an easy target. I don’t think it’s certain that he goes, but I also don’t know how valuable he would be as an addition to someone else’s voting bloc- particularly after he demonstrates his loose lips by telling everyone about Adam’s hidden (dis)advantage.

Matt: So this week I am torn between two options based on what the narrative of the season is. On the one hand is Taylor, the douche bro who seems so confident in his ability to ride out any storm, who has been betrayed by Adam twice now and whose days seem numbered. On the other hand is Adam, someone who the show pushed heavily this week as shifty and not trusted by any of his allies, let alone his enemies. Adam is painting a big target on his back and the only thing that seems likely to save him in the end is that he has an idol. Of course, an idol wouldn’t matter if he gets blindsided. I think that Adam is the target here, I think Jay and Taylor paint him as a rat and untrustworthy and they lure in some of the other floaters. But I also think Adam is alerted to this by his allies and he plays his idol. And I think Adam takes out Taylor with the idol because he finally realizes that relationship is irreparably burned.

Mark: I called it last week for once, so obviously everyone should listen to me. Even though Adam is going to catch more flack for being a bad and frantic player, I think the importance of taking out the Tri-bro-ce will overshadow it. The majority alliance has enough permutations to agree on this. Thus, if Taylor gets immunity and Jay uses an idol, that means that poor Will will get schooled. (Cheer up buddy, there’s milk in Ponderosa).

Emma: I’m going to keep saying Taylor until it comes true. Plus Jay has an idol, so there’s that. I see the arguments for Will and Adam as well, and I think they’re valid. I’m still going with Taylor though. But whatever, as long as it’s a man, I’ll be happy. Please be a man, omg.


Andy John Matt
Mark Emma
Readers
First Boot Jessica CeCe CeCe Jessica Rachel
Sunday
Second
Boot
Figgy Figgy
Figgy Figgy
Figgy Figgy
Third
Boot

Lucy Paul Paul Bret
Paul
Paul
Fourth
Boot

Lucy Lucy
Lucy
Lucy
CeCe Lucy
Fifth Boot
Figgy CeCe
CeCe
Jessica
Taylor CeCe
Sixth Boot
Figgy Taylor
Figgy
Jessica
Figgy Taylor
Seventh Boot
Bret Bret
Sunday
Bret
Bret Bret
Eighth
Boot

Chris
Taylor
Chris
Michelle
Jay
Taylor
Ninth
Out

Adam
Taylor
Taylor
will_wahl_tWill Taylor
question-mark
Score

Updated Winner Predictions

Andy: You might think that his recent string of quieter episodes has slowed down the Ken winner’s edit, but I actually think it might be a good thing. The only way a perfect man who looks like he’s chiseled from granite, is a tremendous athlete, and spends his spare time helping the homeless with the daughter he raises himself is getting anywhere NEAR the end is if he can lay low and let other targets jump ahead of him. WHICH IS SOMEHOW HAPPENING.

Meanwhile, beautiful Ken is hanging back, picking up more strays (as shown in this week’s Secret Scene), the type of alliance that would make it easier for him to make an immunity run down the stretch. Now, I understand the argument that the David actually seems to be the better player of the duo. I just don’t think it’ll matter for the jury. It’s not like we don’t have precedent of a duo where the handsome, charming half destroyed his strategic partner in the finals.

John:  Adam remains my winner pick mostly because no individual has jumped out as being a clear leader in the race right now. I may as well just stick to my original prediction in case he manages to course-correct and salvage his game, so I can claim that I was #TeamAdam all along- even though I’m clearly all aboard the Zeke train now that Michaela is gone.

Matt: I am torn here, especially because the merge is a lot more chaotic than we might realize. As Andy has pointed out (in staff Slack chats, not publicly), the remaining 12 break neatly into four groups of 3 (Jay, Taylor, Will; Ken, David, Jessica; Chris, Bret, Sunday; and Adam, Hannah, Zeke), which means I don’t think there is a strong majority group at the moment that actually trusts each other, and isn’t likely to be at any time soon. So, instead, I am left with reading the story that I think the show is trying to tell. And to me that is the story of David and Ken.

And here is my dilemma. I cannot tell if the story being told is how David grows from being the overactive buffoon into the cunning game player who schemes his way to the top and everyone respects the growth he has undergone, or if his story is of the game player who alienates everyone he votes out. Meanwhile, for Ken, I cannot tell if he is the pretty but little-liked finalist who will reach the end playing an old school game that garners no votes, or if he is the charismatic misfit leader who when he reaches the end is respected by those on both side of the generation gap and is going up against those who have made more enemies.

But this is what I believe will definitely happen: Ken and David and Jessica will be a core three that become kingmakers while the others fight among themselves. They will probably end up siding with the Zeke group and taking control of the game and voting out both sides. In the end, they will be the two primary contenders. And my prediction right now is that David wins. He has already displayed a remarkable ability to smooth over offense, and I think this is a legit skill and a necessary one to win. But more simply, I just think this is the season and story of David. And I think it is that because he is our winner. But god if Ken wins, I will forever kick myself for changing my preseason pick

Mark: Wow, was I wrong about Taylor. He’s not Fabio 2.0. He’s Drew Christy without the badassery. He or Jay may stick around due to having an idol or being goats, but neither will make it to the end. Nor will some of the quieter Gen-Xers like Chris, Bret, and Sunday.

The remainders are divided into smaller chunks. Adam/Hannah/Zeke, David/Ken/Jessica. I think that Jessica has a chance to actually win some immunities and make it to Day 36 (and use her advantage). Hannah’s goofball behavior with a hint of strategy screams Tai-like goat to me. Adam is playing with fire—his own.

People say that David is getting the growth arc. The Cochran South Pacific arc. But what if he’s getting the full Cochran arc—including Caramoan? This is a guy who is tight with multiple people (Zeke, Ken, Hannah), who was shown to get his way with the merge vote, and who’s just bad enough at challenges to not be an immunity threat. He still has an idol, and can take any mutation of those three to the end. And if Zeke burns any of his fellow Millennials along the way, well, look who has 4 Gen-X’ers on the jury. Boom, David wins a tight vote. Crazier things have happened at a voting booth in 2016…

Emma: I’m reluctant to change a winner pick that isn’t drawing dead, due to the prediction tiebreaker rule. So even though the prospect of him winning seems a little too good to be true, I’m going to stick with Zeke. I’d rather be wrong here, than change it and have him win.


Andy John Matt
Mark Emma
Readers
Preseason
Winner
Pick
Taylor Adam
Ken
Taylor
Zeke Mari
Mid-season
Winner
Pick
Ken Adam
David
David
Zeke question-mark

Make your picks below and don’t be afraid to give your explanation in the comments. 

Who will be the ninth boot of Survivor MvGX?

  • Taylor (51% Votes)
  • Adam (20% Votes)
  • Will (17% Votes)
  • Jessica (3% Votes)
  • David (3% Votes)
  • Hannah (2% Votes)
  • Sunday (2% Votes)
  • Bret (2% Votes)
  • Zeke (2% Votes)
  • Jay (0% Votes)
  • Ken (0% Votes)
  • Chris (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 65

Loading ... Loading ...

Who will win Survivor Millennials vs Gen X? (Midseason poll)

  • David (32% Votes)
  • Zeke (20% Votes)
  • Ken (20% Votes)
  • Jay (8% Votes)
  • Adam (6% Votes)
  • Hannah (5% Votes)
  • Chris (3% Votes)
  • Bret (3% Votes)
  • Sunday (2% Votes)
  • Will (2% Votes)
  • Jessica (2% Votes)
  • Taylor (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 66

Loading ... Loading ...
Andy
Follow me

Andy

Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
Andy
Follow me
  • Kemper Boyd

    I really wish “I don’t know” was an option for all votes. Iunno is how I feel about this season. The only thing I feel sure on is that a woman won’t win, so I really should have picked Jessica as my winner pick as I’m usually wrong.

    • andythesaint

      I think the women are doomed. The most any of them can hope for us three women on the jury (Michelle, plus the two that aren’t them). So after that, they’d be hoping that enough men from a season where the votes are generally decided by “which of these inferior women shall we vote out this week” would pick them to win? I don’t see it.

      • Kemper Boyd

        I agree although I think there are enough men who don’t hate women (yes even with the voting pattern) to vote for a woman who deserves to win, I don’t see Adam, Zeke, David, Ken, Bret or Chris voting for a nothing man over a deserving woman BUT the only woman in a position to make enough moves to be deserving is Jessica and I do see Chris still being bitter and not voting for her in particular and her path to be deserving is difficult and involves blind-siding a lot of those men. Hannah is drawing completely dead, she’s Aubry with an even weaker beginning and Sunday is Lisa Welchel without any strategy so far.

        • Sadie

          I tend it to agree. I think Jessica could make it to the end with one of David or Ken and I think she would get some votes and some respect. I don’t see her as a goat at all, but perhaps an even more competitive Carolyn?

          • Diego Armando

            In that 3 I think she might get 2nd. I think the jury might find Ken pretentious and reward the plucky David.

          • Alycia Swift

            I think it might be the opposite. To get there, David has to betray Chris and to some extent Bret … again. He has to betray Zeke. He so far does not have close connections with others. Ken would just have to betray Adam (and if he does not write his name down and fights for him, he’s not really doing that).

        • SpicyMayoJaySimpson

          I don’t know about Chris being bitter, I think it was just general frustration that the votes never worked out how he expected. He worked with David after all, and he got have just roped in Zeke and Michelle. Like it’s been said, if F3 is Jessica, Taylor, Will, Jessica wins (probably with Chris voting for her).

      • Alycia Swift

        I agree. Even if a woman was to get to the end, I don’t think most of these guys would actually vote for her over, say, Ken, Zeke or David. Maybe over Taylor or Will. But I don’t see those guys or Jay voting for one.

        EDIT: Thinking about it, I can see Ken, Zeke, David and Adam voting for any of the woman who can show they played well but not the rest.

      • Diego Armando

        Jessica is the one I grant the highest percentage too which is saying something. Sunday has been to invisible and I don’t think Hannah has the social and oratory ability to convince the jury that she deserves their votes.

      • Assistant Dragon Slayer

        Maybe, but I think that a woman is going to have to do something gangster simply to get to FTC, so once that’s on her resume she could win depending on who she’s sitting next to. I think Jessica is likely to be that person, partly on general savviness, partly because she still has that advantage in her pocket.

        Remember that at this point in SJDS, the women were outnumbered 4-7, and after Jeremy was voted out all four of them looked like they were drawing dead. Not only did Natalie make the gangster move, the men were completely shut out.

        • andythesaint

          So they’d need an all woman jury. Because if ANY man would’ve made that final 3 in SJDS, they would’ve won.

          Well, maybe not Reed.

          • Assistant Dragon Slayer

            Eh, counterfactuals. First of all, putting Missy and Jaclyn in the final 3 was one (or two) of Natalie’s big gangster moves. Second, yeah, Jon or even Keith might have beaten her, but not Reed, Wes, or Alec, and if Josh or Jeremy were in the final 3 then the endgame of that season is entirely different anyway.

          • andythesaint

            Sounds like the jury was openly cheering for the remaining men. To the befuddlement of Jeremy (who is the source of this info).

          • Kemper Boyd

            If we take the 3 last men then yes both Jon and Keith would have won but Alec wouldn’t have, I don’t think the jury even considered he could be there. If we replace Jacq with Alec he would have gotten votes from Wes and Keith but it doesn’t make any sense that even Jon would have voted for him. If you replace Missy with Alec then it’s the same but Jon votes for Jacq but Missy and Baylor vote for Natalie.

          • Kemper Boyd

            I think you are wrong on Reed.
            Reed: Josh, Alec, Wes, Keith
            Natalie: Jeremy

            And that is before we start looking at who the 3rd is and what that means for the loved one votes. If the 3rd is Jacq then Natalie gets Missy and Baylor but Jon votes Jacq and Reed wins 4-3-1. If it’s Missy then Natalie gets Jacq maybe and Missy gets Baylor and Jon and Reed wins 4-2-2 or even comes 3rd to Missy.

          • Assistant Dragon Slayer

            You certainly could be right, but there’s a correlation/causation problem here: A timeline in which Reed or Jon, for example, makes the F3 and beats Natalie is also a timeline in which Natalie doesn’t “deserve” to win because her big moves didn’t work out.

          • Kemper Boyd

            even if every big move worked out but for some reason Reed was Missy Reed still wins because men.

  • Diego Armando

    I think this is going to be a vote split with either Will or Taylor eating it. Why would the Gen Xers target Adam? He is useful to them.

    • Kemper Boyd

      I agree. They might as well try and keep Adam until they get Jay and Taylor our then each side can see how he could be useful to them, I think Taylor then Jay (immunities not withstanding) then they split: Zeke, Hannah, Adam and Will vs Chris, Bret, Sunday with Ken, David and Jessica being the swing alliance.

    • andythesaint

      Why would the Gen X women break up their alliance of six? Why would David play an idol to save Jessica, who wasn’t his ally? Why would David and Chris vote out a Gen Xer? Why would Jay vote out Michaela?

      • Diego Armando

        I think they have less reason to save the bros and vote out Adam. Zeke and Hannah are close and want Jay gone. David, Ken and Jessica are closer to the nerds and the original Gen Xers than the young bros (and Ken wants Taylor gone). Sunday and Bret have hitched up with Chris, who has no interaction with the bros, but has bonded with Zeke and David. I think the 3 are drawing dead and they showed the reward gambit because that is all the editors had to work with.

        • andythesaint

          I’m not saying your wrong. I just don’t like “why would people do something silly that’s against their best interests” as a reason to discount potential actions in Survivor.

          • Kemper Boyd

            I’m sure there will be some more wtf moves, I just think it might be a vote or two down the line when someone blows up their game.

          • andythesaint

            Might be. I’m not exactly dynamite with predictions.

          • Black Dynamite

            It’s okay, Andy. One day you’ll get to my level on predictions. Don’t give up.

          • Diego Armando

            There has been a lot of ballsy moves this season, but I don’t think Zeke and David are going to stake the target off of Jay to take out someone who is taking all the negative attention from the minority group (see Phillip). As long as they are targeting Adam, they aren’t targeting the other 8 players.

          • andythesaint

            They could be left out of the decision. All the Triforce need to make this happen is the olds: Chris, Bret, Sunday, Ken, Jessica.

      • sharculese

        Also, why doesn’t Chris, the biggest of the survivors, just eat the rest of them?

        Sorry, couldn’t resist.

        • andythesaint

          You were right to not resist.

          • sharculese

            I only thought afterwards to make sure it conformed to the original, and now it’s edited so it does.

        • Hornacek

          I read this too quickly and thought it said “Chris, the lamest survivor”.

    • Mike Hirsch

      Yeah, I went with Will chiefly because I think the majority alliance will want to hold onto Adam for one more vote. And then it’s a split between Taylor and Will. Oh, unless, maybe Adam tries again to make it up to Taylor for some strange reason, and plays his idol for Taylor, and Jay plays his for Will, and those three end up voting Adam out. That would be pretty awesome.

  • Black Dynamite

    Today’s rankings are the people who I think are currently in the best position to win Survivor.

    Power Rankings
    1. David
    2. Ken
    3. Zeke
    4. Jessica
    5. Jay
    6. Hannah
    7. Chris
    8. Adam
    9. Bret
    10. Taylor
    11. Sunday
    12. Will

    I think the David/Ken/Jessica group is in control. I haven’t given up on Jay though. I think he can still make connections with people once Taylor is out of the picture. The biggest dropper in the ranks is Adam. I really dislike the decisions he’s made the last couple of weeks. Finally, the rise of Hannah continues. Don’t count her out. We are all witnesses.

    • Kemper Boyd

      I think you are about right but I’d have Sunday and Will above Taylor because I think they can go further than him. Taylor’s shtick is going to stop being funny really soon for them living with him and he can win immunities (we assume), Sunday and Will are good boring goats to have with you and both are loyal to their people.

      • Black Dynamite

        I think all three of them are drawing dead when it comes to winning the game. I see what you’re saying about Sunday and Will going further. That’s likely, especially in Sunday’s case. I think she’s in for the long haul until people start talking about her being super nice and how a jury might vote for her. I guess I mostly just put Taylor ahead of them because if by some impossibility, he makes a final with them, I think he would win.

        • Kemper Boyd

          People said that about Lisa Welchel and she got a vote. I think Sunday is the same, someone smart will see passed the “she’s nice” to the “she’s been dragged”.

          • Black Dynamite

            If someone wants to point to Sunday as a threat to save themselves, the nice thing gets pointed out. The second Sunday makes a final jury, the conversation pivots to “what did she do.” History has shown that people really don’t factor in the “story” you come on the island with when it’s time to vote. It really bogs down to what happened in the 39 days of the game in juror’s minds. But a lot of seasons we hear the narrative that they can’t let player X get in front of the jury and tell their story. I think Sunday is that type this season. She’s the incredibly kind lady, that’s a mom and does good work in her community.

            This now has me thinking, what can Sunday do to win Survivor? Because if she continues down the nice path, either she gets clipped as a threat or she’s the goat in the finals. If she deviates at all from the role placed upon her, we get the narrative of ultimate betrayal.

            As for Lisa, I find her to be incredibly underrated as a player. She was very savvy in Philippines and made a huge impact on how that game played out. I think the players overlooked her game qualities for the mom role she had put on her.

          • Sunday has to stay mom and make it to the end while doing her best to save others she was aligned with. If she finds an idol and plays it for her ally, then wins the final immunity challenge to make it to the end against a competing alliance maybe she stands a chance.

            But being saddled with the mom label and associated pressures is a huge burden. (Though in this season it seems like less of a burden than, say, ovaries and melanin.)

          • Kemper Boyd

            She basically needs to sit between a combo of Taylor, Hannah and Will. But then Hannah would be in with a fighting chance because people like Zeke and Adam will have seen some of Hannah’s more strategic side.

          • Hannah has a strategic side?

          • Black Dynamite

            Of course she does!! You’ll see and you will be mystified. I’ll save a seat for you on the bandwagon. The rise of Hannah continues.

            But seriously, I think she does understand the mechanics of the game well.

          • Kemper Boyd

            maybe strategic is a bad word but she’s in tune enough to tell Adam to CALM THE FUCK DOWN. That side of her that gets the game I guess is what I mean.

          • Diego Armando

            Her fate is likely to be the Wigglesworth/Carter fate of “This person the camera has ignored because they were boring is actually well liked and needs to be voted out because they are a jury threat”.

          • Kemper Boyd

            Your feelings on Lisa are my feelings on Dawn but both cried to fucking often and weren’t taken seriously.

          • sharculese

            The problem with Lisa is that she doesn’t really do anything until her brother/son shows up and gives her a pep talk, and at that point it’s hard to earn credit because most of the jury is out of the game.

          • Alycia Swift

            Especially if Taylor and an 18 year old are the other options.

          • sharculese

            Except somebody smart didn’t say that about Lisa. RC said it, and it was mostly about validating RC’s vanity.

            Not saying the jury wasn’t wrong to not notice or reward the work Lisa put in because, when she decided to start playing she played hard, but let’s not go overboard and claim RC isn’t a complete piece of shit.

          • You know I’m on board this train.

          • Kemper Boyd

            You have misunderstood my point. It was brought up during the game I believe by others who were not RC that Lisa was likeable and might get votes but that wasn’t a good enough reason to not take her to the end.

          • sharculese

            I totally misunderstood your point and I still don’t regret taking the opportunity to bag on RC.

          • Kemper Boyd

            No, feel free. It’s a good point that people talked about Lisa being likable and she only got RC’s vote and RC’s vote was about RC and no one else.

          • I agree about that. RC voting for Lisa was her slapping herself on the back for pegging her as a threat…even though she wasn’t a threat at that point.

      • Alycia Swift

        I agree – I don’t think Taylor can win against Sunday and Will even. My guess is in that situation Sunday wins. No Genxer will give it to Taylor or an 18 year old.

    • Alycia Swift

      This is pretty close to my ranking. I’d move Chris to Hannah’s spot, bump Hannah up one and move Jay to 7.

      • Black Dynamite

        Jay is in a what seems to be a bad position now. He’s already been labeled as a threat and he’s in the minority alliance, anchored down by Taylor. But I constantly struck by how many people have remarked about how cool he is. People gravitate towards him and while that is threatening, it’s also something Jay can use to his advantage later in the game when the bigger group is looking to turn on each other. Plus Jay still has the idol.

        • Alycia Swift

          People also seem to gravitate a bit towards Chris and find Hannah endearing and not a challenge threat. While Chris and Jay have shown arrogance, Chris does not seem to have shown it to other players that much. Jay has. Jay also has not been as trustworthy. Chris so far has not really betrayed anyone. That’s why my change.

  • SpicyMayoJaySimpson

    I finally cracked and looked up the returnees for S34 and the tribe divisions. S34 SPOILER ALERT: I think Sandra and Michaela will band together, and hopefully they’ll bring in Ciera. I’d like to see Cirie, Tai, and Zeke in an alliance. Hopefully Cirie and Sandra don’t get Yau-Manned. Also, because Zeke is returning, I’m leaning more towards saying that Zeke wins this season, as that puts the tribes at two winners each. That said, I still voted David in this poll.

    • Kemper Boyd

      I got spoiled accidentally by Redmond who was sleep deprived and ended up posting a list with the 34 returnees on twitter.

      • SpicyMayoJaySimpson

        I pruned Survivor out of all my social media because I can’t watch live this season. It’s actually kinda nice bc my timeline isn’t as clogged up

        • Kemper Boyd

          I have an account for this and one in my realname. I just close Survivor one off my tweetdeck when I’ve not watched.

          • SpicyMayoJaySimpson

            I already have three separate accounts. So on the one hand, I don’t want to add another; on the other, what’s the difference?

          • Kemper Boyd

            I just have the two but one of my real life friends found it because I wasn’t keeping them separate enough.

    • jersey_luck

      Here the problem of going all in for S33 maleas the winner: .Natalie Anderson was on the cast and had to leave at the last minute. She was replaced with Sierra.

      • sharculese

        Jesus fuck really that’s the reason she’s there? Fuck the world, officially.

        • andythesaint

          My theory is that she was hanging around in the hotel bar.

          • turgid_legume

            It’s going to lead to a VERY awkward portion of the s34 cold open where Jeff explains the season concept in voiceover while clips play. Or maybe they just ignore her completely and hope nobody notices.

          • jersey_luck

            To be fair if I was guessing who would get a confessional in the cold open would be Tony, Michaela, Circe, Ozzy, Malcolm, Debbie, Sandra and Caleb.

          • You mean you don’t think they’ll feature scintillating personalities like Troy or Brad or Sarah?

          • jersey_luck

            Maybe if they get super deep in the game but I was just putting people who could give a great confessional for an opening and would also make someone in audience happy and excited. It is almost like a game that playing when no one else is playing.

            Also I was so close to saying Brad .

          • That was my point: the ones I mentioned aren’t very dynamic and don’t at all fit with the title of the season.

          • Assistant Dragon Slayer

            I guess I’m beating the “don’t be so sure about your predictions” drum today (can’t imagine why I feel that way recently), but remember how baffled/disappointed some people were when Wentworth got voted onto Cambodia? Whoever you guys are talking about (I’m not looking) might very well be a game changer.

            Specifically, Hali’s whack-a-doodle Youtube videos have me thinking she might bring a lot more to the table the second time around.

          • Yes, and to those people we said “You have only a few episodes to judge Kelley on, and she’s not competing against some spectacular field of candidates. She might actually be good.” Some people we’ve seen go well past the merge and stay mostly inanimate.

          • andythesaint

            They probably make her stand in the back anyway for height reasons.

          • jersey_luck

            Too be fair she was in town for Survivor Price is Right.

          • andythesaint

            To be unfair, she didn’t need to be.

          • sharculese

            Did you watch Survivor Price is Right? She and Ozzy were the models for the Showcase round, where she was mysteriously introduced as a fan favorite, which only makes sense in retrospect. They had to have already known they were casting her.

          • andythesaint

            I did. I don’t think it was a coincidence that they put her on camera.

          • sharculese

            I’m going back to spoiler tags because I think we’re getting too close to making it obvious who we’re talking about:

            I actually don’t have a problem with this casting choice. “Do nothing because you’re cruising to the end with a bunch of unlikeable douches who are bad in challenges” isn’t necessarily a bad strategy. If not for the presence of Mike, it’s seriously possible we’re talking about Survivor winner Sierra Dawn Thomas.

            But, as I said in my ‘most useless players’ list, choosing to be irrelevant to the game and having that fail made her irrelevant to the edit. That doesn’t mean there’s nothing there. I’m not going full Sierra truther because that would be insane, but I don’t necessarily think production is wrong to think there are things there we didn’t get to see, ala Parvati or Kelley.

          • The story I had heard was that she was still the alternate at that point. But it makes sense to remind people of who she is since there’s still at least a chance she’ll be playing. And let’s not forget that she’s traditionally attractive, so why not have her be the model?

            As for the fan favorite thing, what else are they going to call her? “Boring also-ran Sierra!” “Passive background player Sierra!”

            And now I’m just putting things behind spoiler tags because it’s fun or because it’s profanity like fuck.

          • sharculese

            Sierra because she really wanted to come back or Natalie because it was a bar?

          • Yes.

          • andythesaint

            The first one. Because she has nothing better than to hang around other Survivor people.

        • Hornacek

          “Availability” is the real game-changer.

  • turgid_legume

    Jeez, is it Tuesday already?

    For fantasy purposes I’d like to see a Jessica, David, Adam final three, but that seems incredibly remote at this point. I’d settle for a Jessica, David, Ken final three, which would at least jibe with what the edit has been giving us.

    My prediction for this week is that it’s ultra-boring: the group of nine that voted together last week remains together, and implements a vote split targeting Taylor because it’s easy common ground that everyone can get behind. No idol is played, Taylor goes home.

    • Roswulf

      What do you mean common ground? Adam’s all about protecting Taylor, they’re best buds!

      • turgid_legume

        I have to think that Adam wakes up after that last vote and realizes how badly he has misplayed the last few days and writes off Taylor as a lost cause.

        • Roswulf

          One would think, but one would think that he would have had the good sense to write-off Taylor long before this.

          I can’t help but think that Adam has found his goat, and no amount of reason will convince him otherwise.

          • turgid_legume

            Maybe. Even if he remains under that delusion, I don’t think one person out of nine can steer the ship away from an easy Taylor boot, especially when the one is playing from a position at the bottom of that group. Just like the last vote, he’ll suck it up and go along.

          • Roswulf

            Oh yes, I’m certainly not suggesting Adam has any power to control the vote (barring him using an idol to save Taylor…which he can’t possibly be that stupid…right? RIGHT?).

            I’m here to mock Adam’s delusions, not to argue against a Taylor boot.

          • andythesaint

            I am here for you being here to mock Adam delusions.

          • turgid_legume

            Oh god, I hadn’t even thought of that potential level of stupidity until now.

            Okay, now I want that to happen for the sheer lulz of it.

          • Mike Hirsch

            I’m completely on board with an “Adam sends himself home playing an idol for Taylor” scenario.

    • I’m still holding onto my stubborn belief that, despite recent evidence to the contrary, this season is going to wind up really boring, which means a couple really predictable boots. Plus, I don’t really see the mega-alliance crumbling just yet (the alliance of 9 managed to vote together at final 12 in Cambodia), so I think it’ll be a simple Taylor boot.

      I’m keeping Adam as my winner pick, because he was my preseason pick and he’s actually getting airtime. In other words, I have no idea who’s going to win.

      • Sylvisual

        There’s a commercial now that says otherwise re: Tribal excitement.

  • Assistant Dragon Slayer

    This season (and real life, goddammit) has completely undermined any confidence I have in making predictions. But we must carry on regardless. I agree with Andy and Matt about the existence and composition of the four blocs of three. From that assumption, I see two directions this could go.

    #1. They get rid of Jay, then Taylor, or vice versa, easy peasy. At that point, Zeke, the only person with BFFs in all three remaining blocs, pulls Chris, David, and Ken into his threesome for a 6-4 majority. However, the GenXers then realize they have a 6-4 majority if they band together. After Zeke gives some hilariously overconfident confessionals, the GenXers clip him and Pagong the rest of the Millennials.

    #2. The Millennials realize that after getting rid of three of their own in a row, they no longer have a numbers advantage, and that the GenXers aren’t the ones targeting each other. While I would be disappointed to see Taylor slip out of the noose, this would be the more interesting direction as it would mean that partway into tomorrow’s episode I would have absolutely no idea where things are headed.

  • Assistant Dragon Slayer

    Winner’s edit talk: @andythesaint:disqus Colin Stone said essentially the same thing this week, except he didn’t explain the rationale as well as you did. It’s clear that he meant what you said, but the words out of his mouth were infuriatingly close to something closed-loop like “Ken’s high visibility earlier must mean he’s winning; his low visibility now also must mean he’s winning.”

    • andythesaint

      “I said he was winning then, so I’m saying it now because I said it”.

      • That is literally my logic.

        • Kemper Boyd

          That was my Michele logic for 70% of last season then at the end I thought the edit was telling us it. But I only said I thought she was winning until final 5 because she was my pre-season pick.

          • I was really pushing back on the OWM narrative last season. In retrospect, Jeff comparing her to Parvati preseason should’ve removed any doubts.

          • Kemper Boyd

            Literally one of the two reasons she was my winner pick.

    • sharculese

      Really? I don’t even dislike Ken as much as everyone thinks I do, but now I super want him to lose just because of this.

      • Assistant Dragon Slayer

        To be fair to Colin, it’s clear that he meant something like what Andy said (that to get to the endgame at all, Ken needs the spotlight off him right now), he just put it badly, and it came across like “heads Ken wins, tails Ken wins”. And I believe him when he’s says he wants to be wrong.

        • sharculese

          I believe his constant insistence that he wants to be wrong, which is part of why I want him to be wrong. I want one big pratfall that convinces him to stop watching the show like he’s a conspiracy theorist looping red yarn on a pin board, so that his podcast becomes listenable again.

          • andythesaint

            God, I NEEDED THAT so much last season. I don’t even listen to their show, but I needed the entire edgic-industrial system to fail. But it didn’t.

            Although, it kind of did anyway. Because the revolt was real.

          • sharculese

            Yeah… I kind of don’t want internet Survivor fans to split into pro- and anti-edgic factions, though. Some of those dudes have good insights when they’re not talking about how many shots of scorpions there were in this episode.

            The problem comes when it’s episode 2 and they’re talking about the result as if it’s predetermined (I mean, I know it’s predetermined, but you get what I’m saying). I have no idea why it’s fun to talk about the show that way, and it feels like they’re trying to shut down discussion, and what’s the point of doing this if we’re not talking about how the game is going?

            Edgic-ers are the people who ruin movie night by spending the whole time trying to guess what the twist is when all you wanted to do was hang out with your friends and watch a fucking movie.

          • Assistant Dragon Slayer

            It’s a natural impulse to want to suss out where things are going (we’re commenting on a predictions post, after all). It’s just that there are always people who go way overboard.

            To me, editing a season of Survivor is like writing a whodunnit. The murderer can’t be the most obvious suspect, but also not some rando, and the red herrings need the be convincing. I think Survivor could do the most to maintain suspense not by doing more to conceal the winner, but rather by not allowing so many players to be taken out of contention just based on heir edit. Every second of running time is precious, but don’t let Bret go purple, give him say one 20-second confessional per episode. Give Sunday a majestic helicopter shot.

          • Kemper Boyd

            I agree with you wholeheartedly. What we need is a season or two that is edited in a way that you really are convinced it could be any of the final 3 so the ending is still satisfying but not obvious. The last three seasons have been pretty obvious by the end by editing and understanding basic social dynamics (and maths). Mike was obvious from the merge, the only options in Cambodia were Jeremy and Wentworth and last season was Obvious Winner Michele. We need an edit to throw us off but not in a way that is unsatisfying when the winner comes.

          • Sadie

            See, I totally thought Jeremy, Spencer of Kelley could win. I thought it would be a real fight between Spencer and Jeremy… So what do I know?

          • Kemper Boyd

            I couldn’t see Spencer’s edit as any more than giving the fans more Spencer (remember they had votes to tell them who the fans wanted on the show).

          • Sadie

            In retrospect, that makes sense. I don’t tend to think that broadly about what’s happening. I felt like they kept hitting his emotional growth so hard. In hindsight, maybe it was overkill. Perhaps I’m falling into the same trap with David but his “story” feels much less shoehorned

          • Kemper Boyd

            Emotional growth rarely works for a jury. Just ask Fishbach! David’s story is interesting because it’s growth but it’s also about power. Spencer never got a story about him being in power.

          • Assistant Dragon Slayer

            Much as it pains me to disagree with someone who’s trying to agree with me, remember that last season “Obvious Winner” was an ironic designation because to the edgic-skeptics it seemed obvious that Aubry was going to win.

            And if the winner does his or her job properly, the actual Final 2 or 3 should be completely without suspense. That can’t be helped. What they can do to keep the audience guessing is the make as many of the post-merge players look like contenders for as long as possible. There are structural reasons to write off Sunday and Will, but we should not be able to count Bret, Chris, and Jessica out simply based on screen time.

          • Mike Hirsch

            What I see with the edgic-ers a lot is them making a conclusion (usually super early because they want to be first to declare someone a winner or some such garbage), and then doing amazing feats of mental acrobatics to make what is being presented on the show fit their conclusion. I don’t mind it when people are just analyzing the show and their contenders vary throughout the season.

          • Crappy

            The entire edgic system did fail with Cagayan.. I mean Tony absolutely murdered any and every prediction/pick edgic-ers came out with that season. Even before heading to the finale, loads insisted that either Spencer or Woo will win and Tony had no chance (You would know since you put him in zero percent club first episode yourself IIRC :P)
            It’s just that they now consider that an outlier….. ignoring the fact that edgic failed badly till Jeremy’s boot in SJDS as well.

          • Andy did put Tony at zero percent after the first episode. But from shortly after the merge, we had figured out Tony was winning. And our read on that was based on the edit, while the edgic claim that Tony was going to lose was also based on the edit.

            It’s almost like “reading the edit” is an entirely subjective thing!

          • Crappy

            Yes I remember you guys being on Tony wagon when everyone else was sure he was not gonna win.

            Also reading the edit/story is only part of edgic. They are more concerned with edit manipulation. This is best explained by Aubry/Michele dichotomy from last season. Overall story of the season did support Aubry win till the end (hence why some edgic-ers like Redmond had her as a top contender) but the story manipulation supported Michele win who if not for her win, would have been a non-consequential character in that season.

            For me, the main issue with edgic sytem, is that they ignore that for Survivor, first and foremost it is entertainment that matters.

          • andythesaint

            You were still right to give me shit for the zero percent club. I must wear that forever.

          • Hornacek

            Hey, Rob C. and Aras are right there with you – they said the same thing about Tony after the first episode.

    • DrVanNostrand

      OWK

      • sharculese

        Spoiler tags. Some people don’t want to let the edgic obsessives ruin two season in a row.

  • Mike Hirsch

    For my winner pick, I went with David, but I have a fear that it’s going to be Taylor. The fear is one part assumption and one part from what we saw last week: the assumption is that Adam is trying to get in with Taylor because Taylor’s his perceived goat, but the show isn’t telling us that Adam thinks of Taylor as a goat, which would protect Taylor. That plus Ken’s “it has to be Taylor” remark makes me worried that Taylor is going to narrowly avoid getting booted and earn some admiration down the stretch.

    • Kemper Boyd

      NOOOO, I don’t want it to be Douche Fabio.

      • Mike Hirsch

        Me either, it’s my worst-case scenario.

    • Sadie

      I took Ken’s insistence it be Taylor as part of the Ken package. No way someone like Ken can tolerate the disgrace of someone pilfering food. As someone pointed out on the podcast, he is Savage in some ways

      • andythesaint

        Yep. Good and noble Ken will not let a brigand like Taylor get away with such acts. He plays with honor!

        • Sadie

          But Ken has a beautiful crooked smile and Savage has pursed-lips-lemon-face.

          • andythesaint

            Hard to argue with that analysis. Unassailable.

  • Ms. Sweaterfan

    I had no idea who to pick for the winner, and I was shocked to see David in the lead, but I wouldn’t be mad if he pulled it off 🙂
    Right now it feels like the narrative is setting up the main obstacles for the winner’s post-merge game, so it’s very possible that the winner is being obscured a bit in the edit. I was trying to think back to who was really prominent in the merge and the few eps leading up to it, and I’d have to say Jay, Taylor and Adam…and I really can’t see any of them pulling off the win at this point (but who knows – crazier things have happened).
    It’s almost a foregone conclusion at this point that a man will win, so I think the bigger question for me is whether it will be a “traditional” male winner (Jay, Chris, Ken) or a less traditional freaks and geeks winner like Zeke, David or even Adam I guess.
    Who I’m ready to rule out at this point:
    Hannah
    Sunday
    Will
    Taylor

  • Assistant Dragon Slayer

    We’ll find out in a few hours I guess, but I think you all are overlooking that all of the conflict and paranoia is on the Millennials side. And also that the GenXers are risk-averse, and for now are playing to not lose rather than playing to win. I really think we’re in for an easy boot of one of the DoucheForce tonight, then a straight Pagonging of the Mills, with maybe Hannah hanging on as the swing vote at final 7. Of course, this assumes that nobody plays an idol correctly.