Worlds Apart Zero Percent Club- Episode 1

Hey Purple Rock followers, it’s your favorite guest podcaster Matt (and so help me, if you even thought for a second that I was gonna say Emma we are done). This is the first post of the (hopefully) weekly “Just how damn close to zero percent is that survivor contestant?”  (Note: name may change). The goal of this will be to both provide Andy and John a way to actually remember who they have inducted into the zero percent club, and to provide my own assessment of just how far away each contestant is from the zero percent club.  With no further ado:

The No Way in Hell Group:

1. Max: Look, I have been preconditioned (some would say tortured) to love Max by fiat of John since the end of San Juan Del Sur.
Artist's re-creation
Artist’s re-creation
Despite the Clockwork Orange-style conditioning, Max is very obviously in a very safe place which makes me happy. He hasn’t done anything to show that he cant win.  He hasn’t been portrayed in an overly negative light, and he has been present for confessionals. At the moment there are no warning signs for the HHS Max.
2. Shirin: For a moment there, John’s black heart was shriveling up in pain, thinking that his soulmate was going home.  She wasn’t, because the fact is social bonds matter more than physical prowess in this game (unless your name is Ozzy, and Ozzy will never win).  Shirin wasn’t even a target after last night.  Now if her challenge troubles continue, she may be in some danger…you know what?  Nah, she’s fine.  All Hail Shirin! (Please don’t kill me, John).
Editor's note: You've been warned.
Editor’s note: You’ve been warned.
3. Joe: A lot of people are comparing Joe to Malcolm.  He has the long hair, he gets along with people, he’s athletic.  And that’s all fine, but everybody knew Malcolm was playing the game.  I don’t think the people in the game look at Joe yet and think “Oh crap, this guy is thinking about the game.”  So I don’t think the Malcolm comp works.  Instead I think Joe is JT.  He’s hiding his brain behind his charm and people will be falling all over themselves to advance him.  Sure he will have obstacles, but it would take a lot to drop him to 0%. And even then there will always be that niggling concern of him winning challenges and charming people if he gets to the end.  Joe’s biggest concern right now is that the chances of him being victim to the first Survivor double homicide have skyrocketed.  Please don’t get OJed, Joe!
4. Jenn:  If Joe is JT, then is Jenn his Stephen?  Or is she his Taj?  Charming, outgoing, likeable, Jenn has set herself up as the center spoke of the No Collars.  So what could be Jenn’s downfall?  You know besides Vince stumbling upon her and Joe in the woods and then fleeing the scene in a white Bronco?  I don’t think Jenn has the filter to keep from going off on people she doesn’t like.  I think when we get a swap or merge Jenn is going to encounter the Rodneys of the game and just unleash herself.  It will be glorious, and it may be successful, but i don’t think it gets her jury votes.  But until I actually see that, Jenn is as safe as safe can be.
5. Mike: Continuing the Tocantins theme, I think Mike is Brendan.  He is going to open the door for whoever wins the game through his sheer stubborn good nature and it will slam in his face.  That said, Mike is stupidly likeable.  It’s like if you took Jon Misch, removed everything that sucked about him, and just left him with that golden retriever attitude.  Mike can definitely win, but i don’t think he will.  Until he is eliminated I think he is too likeable to ever reach 0%.

They Seem Ok Now, But Could Fall Quick

6. Carolyn: For now, Carolyn is fine. She is in the central alliance of her tribe, she has an idol, so why isn’t she in the above group?  Because I feel the fall could be quick if it comes for Carolyn. I always get suspicious when someone is singled out as an early target.  It usually bodes poorly for their long term potential.  She was targeted So quickly (see what i did there?) that I think she might rub people the wrong way further down the line.  But for now she is fine.
7. Tyler: You might notice there are a lot of White Collars thus far.  That’s a product of us knowing how their tribe works.  I think Tyler is pretty damn safe, but I don’t think he’s winning.  Still, he was present enough in this episode, and provided the crucial swing vote to keep himself in a good spot.  I actually think he has solidified his place in the core alliance pretty ably tonight, but we just got so little of his perspective that I can’t see him winning.  But it’s way too early to 0 percent a guy in a good position just because he didn’t get a ton of airtime.
8. Rodney:  Look, just because it seems obvious that Rodney practiced his dead sister speech in a Seinfeldian attempt to find the perfect sob story to lure women into his bed, that doesn’t mean he has no chance to win.  Rodney seems to have integrated nicely in his tribe and I think he’s calling the shot if they go to tribal. The thing with Rodney, and the reason John 0-percented him, is that we can all see him turning everyone against him in a second.  Until we are shown that he alienates most people though, I’m not putting him in just in case I pull an Andy and relegate the winner to the 0 percent club because he doesn’t fit my stereotype of what a winner looks like.
9. Hali: Maybe its because I think she is super cute, but i think Hali showed enough that she could be an under the radar winner last night.  Going back to my No Collar Tocantins theme, Hali is the Stephen here, which means people wont like her as much as Joe or Jenn, but she’ll be guiding them through the tougher strategy.  (Ok, this is probably all because I think she is super cute).
10. Sierra: Sierra seems to have contracted Jaclyn’s permanent sourpuss from the water.  (Editor’s note: Was “permanent sourpuss” the technical term for not having a uterus?) I hope that medical can help her with that.  But Sierra was savvy enough to make a completely wrong conclusion about somebody who was desperately trying to tell the truth.  That said, she might be driving this ship at the moment.  She got enough airtime for me to think there may be something there, but its most likely a spectacular comeuppance. I want to give it another week before I judge.

So You’re Telling Me There’s A Chance

11. Dan: I don’t think Dan should be 0-percented yet.  But what does Dan need?  He needs to get to the swap and he needs to start over.  Can he do that?  I actually think he can.  We saw him talking to Mike about the hole he had already dug himself.  He is aware he was fucking up, even if he has no idea how to correct it.  But what he could do, perhaps, is start over.  If he gets swapped away from Sierra and Rodney and Lindsay, i think he can start from ground zero and fit in.  Can he win?  That is a super duper long shot even then, but I’m not quite willing to write Dan off completely.
12. Vince: Vince has made allies, but he has also shown himself to be a ticking time bomb of jealousy and hippie rage.  So how can O.J. 2.0 win?  Well let me remind you, O.J. was found not guilty.  Vince needs the same jury.

Wait, Are These People Actually In This Season?

13. Will: Quick, tell me anything you learned about Will from this episode.  Uh-huh, that’s right.  He is convinced he can make sandwiches from the sea and that is all.   Will might last for some time.  But I’m not sure he is actually on this season.
14. Lindsey: Quick, tell me anything you learned about Lindsey from this episode. I’ll even help you out: The  short chesty girl in a bright blue crop top on Blue Collar tribe?  That’s Lindsey.  But can you tell me literally (Editor’s note: not literally) anything else about her?  No. Her only role tonight was: 1) to listen to Rodney’s robot-eyed tragic story and 2) to be eye candy.  If my eyes weren’t drawn to bright colors, I might have completely forgotten she was even on the TV.  I mean, this person has a face tattoo!  People with face tattoos should never be boring!  Still, she actually was on the show so I’m not 0-percenting her yet, unlike…

Zero Percent Club

15. Kelly: Quick, name the sixth member of Blue Collar!  There’s Mike and Dan, Rodney and Sierra, crop-top and… fuck, do they have a sixth member?  I actually had to look up her name, because the show sure as shit never mentioned it out loud.  Kelly is so backgrounded that she is liable to pull a Cowboy Rick on us, only without the hat she could make the final three before anyone noticed.
16. Joaquin: Why is Joaquin here?  Because unlike Dan he still doesn’t realize what he did wrong.  Seriously, he doesn’t.  He assumed you have to lie all the time (Uh, no buddy, you don’t) and I don’t think he realized that that lie is why his compatriot went down so hard.  And not only that, but we rarely see him last night even as his alliance is crashing and burning.  Joaquin is toast, it’s only a matter of seeing how quick he burns.
17. Nina:  I just don’t think Nina fits in.  And I don’t think its the hearing thing.  That tribe is pretty damn young and the ones who aren’t young are gregarious like Will.  Nina seems more serious, and she is older, and I think she is too much of a natural target for that group.  Its not her fault, but I think she is gone and soon.  Also, I believe the preview.  I’m a sucker for the preview apparently.
So, to sum up the 0-percent club:
Andy: No one!
John: Rodney!
Matt: Nina, Joaquin, Kelly.  That’s right I’m the brave one here.
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Matt

Matt has an irrational dislike for all contestants named Michel(l)e. Also if he ever takes a strong stance about why everyone else is wrong, it is he that is inevitably wrong.

Favorite seasons: Micronesia, Heroes vs. Villains, Palau, Philippines, Pearl Islands, Cagayan
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  • tocantins

    About Rodney, I feel that if he was the winner, The Producers would show him in a more favorable light when talking about his sister, put a memorial where he says how much he misses her and such, so that he becomes the likeable guy, instead of just putting immediately after it a shot of him saying how chicks dig his dead-sister-in-blood-pool story. They clearly made him be the jerk, and they don’t make winners be the jerks (even when they clearly are, the show tries to defend them).

    After hearing the criticisms, I would change my 0% club to Rodney, Nina, Joaquin. I still feel Kelly deserves less the 0% club than Sierra, both had almost no screen time (and all Sierra’s time was because of Dan), but Kelly seemed more likeable, while SIerra appeared to be posed as only an adversary to Mike and Dan, who are clearly being editted as the main characters in BC Tribe. But I guess 0% is 0%, and none of them are there yet. We just haven’t seem enough of BC Tribe to judge.

    • I want to be very careful to separate how I feel about Rodney from how the show feels about Rodney. I do not believe the show is necessarily protraying him as a jerk just because we are reading his sob story as false. Also as to the point of the show wouldnt let the winner be a jerk, i present to you the Tony Problem. Tony came off to a lot of people as a jerk and bully and very unlikable, so for them they could not imagine he was the winner. To those of us who liked Tony it was obvious. Because opinions about likability can divide so easily, I want to hold off on Rodney for now due to the fact that I didn’t like him before the season began and I don’t want to judge him too quickly based off of that.
      Sierra’s time may have been because of Dan, but it was time when she was proposing an agenda with regards to Dan and Mike. Kelly had no agenda and no presence. It’s as much the quality of your time, as the quantity. Basically if you are involved in the game you get to stick around. So I’m sorry I just don’t see their time as equal at all.

      • Just from an editing standpoint (no I can’t stop myself from trying to read the edit) I find it curious that it’s episode 1 and we’re already hearing Rod’s tragic backstory. That seems like the kind of thing to keep your powder dry on, and the two best explanations I can come up with are either that his game is so ‘dead sister’ based there’s no other way to explain him, or he just isn’t long for the game.

      • Sharculese, it is impossible to try and not read something into the edit, but let me give a third reason the dead sister is included: in the past some winners have been allowed to show some facet of themselves that exists outside the game. Whether it be a sad story, or a connection to a loved one or something. It used to be a classic episode 1 sign of a winner. So your third possibility on the dead sister story is that he is going far adn the show wants to get started right away on developing him as sympathetic and complex (even if we here dont find the story to be either)

  • Other Scott

    Kelly actually had reasonable screentime. She was the narrator for the whole “Dan loses it” incident, which one of the three main storylines on the blue collar tribe.

    She was completely unmemorable, but it’s not like the editors didn’t even try to get her into the episode like certain previous Kell(e)ys.

    I can’t put anyone in the zero percent club. We don’t know enough about Joaquin or Nina to say they have no chance, even though they’re clearly behind the eight-ball now. Rodney had a very good episode, so it would be unreasonable to put him in. The closest is probably Vince, but he still has the Fabio path to victory available to him of winning the last few immunities and getting the final vote because a bunch of his allies are on the jury.

  • Let’s talk about Zero Percent Club. Because Andy and John are terrible at predicting things, they have become risk-averse in adding people. Too risk-averse. There needs to be a way to reward people for identifying goats as early as possible.

    I propose we score Zero Percent Club.

    If you’re looking for a way to score the Zero Percent Club, here’s how you do it:

    * You can add people to your list, but only if they are still in the game.
    * You get a point every week for each person on your list, even if their torch has been snuffed.
    *If someone on your list wins, you go bust and we divide your points by 36. Basically, you’ll lose to anybody who didn’t pick the winner, but will still be competitive with the others who did.

    If somebody puts every cast member, including the eventual winner, on their list immediately they will finish with a score of about 7, roughly the same as someone who correctly identified a single goat halfway through the season.

    • Ok lets talk about it. The 0-Percent club to me, is less a game and more of a mental exercise. Think of like the preliminary step to forming a power ranking. This is why shortly after the merge the 0-percent club typically morphs into a power ranking. Andy and John though are rightfully a little hesitant after one week because we know so little. Really though after week 3 we should be able to narrow it down pretty damn well

      • Yeah, you’re right. You can chalk that up to my pathological need to quantify everything. Engineering school does that to a person. What I was trying to express with numbers is that in a post-Tony world, the 0% club is a tricky thing. I think the game is more random than we give it credit for. As long as (1)there are two people in the game who are less popular than you are, you have a shot at winning.

  • Fine, make me the baby. Whatever. I’m everyone’s real favorite guest. Right, guys? Right??

  • Rob

    A+ for the Seinfeld reference. It was a good one.

    I’m putting Dan, Joaquin, and Vince in the club. If Dan is this cranky and bad with people on day 1, he’s going nowhere. Joaquin really doesn’t seem to get the game, or realize the mistake he made. He’s got no allies now. Vince is overwhelmed by emotions. His creepy obsession with Jenn will probably end badly for him. He’ll probably get booted for being a creeper. If he doesn’t, he’ll get blindsided because he thinks you can make “deep connections” in this game.

    • This is why i’m especially hesitant about Dan. He got off to a horrific start, but he also realized how bad of a start he got off to. he was saying to Mike basically “wow i fucked up and now i’m in a can’t win situation with these people.” the first step to correcting a mistake is to recognize it. Joaquin for instance cannot recognize his mistakes (we agree on this), but Dan has already shown that he can. I’m not saying that Dan can fix this, but i found it telling that the show allowed him to diagnose his own failings. Suggested to me that we would see him trying to fix them. (if they just showed his failings without the diagnosis i would have 0-percented him though)

  • Rob

    Also, I think Kelly and Nina a very premature. It is very common for under the radar women to disappear in the edit for long periods of time, especially when their tribe doesn’t go to TC. The little that I saw of Kelly actually impressed me enough to put her on my Pick 4 team.

    • You have a good point about how women in particular can get very light edits. People have really pushed back on my Kelly pick, but just from my subjective experience I literally didn’t remember her moments after watching the episode until I went online and looked her up. And then when i looked her up, I couldn’t remember anything she actually said. She should probably have been in the Will group (and I actually originally had her there) but I just kept coming back to my point of view (and again this is subjective) that she was the most invisible person on the island.