Hey Purple Rock Fanatics, before I begin the third post about the Zero Percent Club I wanted to talk a little bit about how I read the edit. I do not believe that every episode is equal in terms of telling the story of who wins the show. There have been winners who have had invisible episodes, and even winners who have had really bad episodes.
But there are certain episodes that tend to matter more than others. The first episode usually makes sure to have some confessionals from the winner. The merge episode is another big one. If someone is invisible in these episodes, I tend to weigh this very heavily against them, much more so than if they were invisible in episode 3.
Last week I took the time to talk about everyone, but from week to week I will be focusing on those who have had their positions altered or were the focus of the episode in some way. And so, without further ado…
The No Way in Hell Group:
Max: So you know that intro? Yeah that applies to Max. Max was a featured player in the first and second episode, the fact that he barely appeared in the third episode- when his tribe didn’t even go to tribal- doesn’t bother me. Max is fine.
Joe: Joe still seems like he is very very safe. But that is just for now. I feel that we are seeing a story of how Joe isn’t the leader that he thinks he is. That could be setting it up for Joe’s inevitable failure. I think it’s coming, but in the meantime he is still getting a very good edit. Well, except that he might think he is smarter than he is.
Jenn: I think this was a very strong episode for Jenn. Some people are thinking that Jenn is coming off as a little cruel, but I don’t really see it. What I see instead is the person who I believe is the most important person on this tribe, and I think she is a real threat to win the game. Everything that happens in this tribe revolves around Jenn.
Hali: Her role has been growing week after week and she is in a great position in her alliance. She was just present enough in the first episode to not be entirely invisible. Not all winners are big players in the first episode, but they can’t be invisible. And I think Hali met that criteria. Besides, we now know her third-favorite thing is surfing. She can’t go anywhere before we learn 1 and 2!
They Seem Ok Now, But Could Fall Quick
Shirin: Ok, before John kills me-
Dammit John, let me finish! I think that Shirin’s chances in the game are dependent on what you think about Tyler and Carolyn or, as John knows them, The Wet Blanket Alliance.
If you think that Tyler is being set up as a winner, then the fact that Shirin doesn’t get along with him is a terrible sign. However, if you think Tyler is being set up for a fall, then the fact that Shirin rubs him the wrong way means good things for Shirin.
The Wet Blankets: Carolyn and Tyler have a growing narrative that I believe is setting up their eventual fall. While this episode showed that they have bonded, I think the fact that the show hasn’t shown lighter moments from them is a bad sign. The show wants you to generally like the winner as a person as well as a player. And as mentioned before, these two are the ultimate wet blankets.
Zero Percent Club
Some new people! But first, let’s sum up the people I have already put in the club:
Kelly: I have considered that I was hasty in writing Kelly completely off after one episode. Survivor has a history of under-serving female winners. We also have seen the least of blue collar out of the three tribes. But when we are at blue collar Kelly isn’t the focus, and remember what I said about being invisible during the first episode? No one was more invisible during the first episode than Kelly was. I think that Kelly may actually be a decent player, but I don’t see her winning.
Joaquin: Joaquin has bonded with Tyler recently, but I think it is clear that he has no understanding of the game or even how to react to people. He is also someone who is a target at the merge for physical reasons, and he doesn’t have the social game or strategic game to overcome that.
Will: Andy and John both locked up Will this week, and I have to agree with them. Whereas the younger crowd on no collar are still looking pretty good, the flop sweat on Will has been showing. There are certain things you can’t avoid showing, but what we are seeing from Will doesn’t lead me to believe anything good about his game.
The Entire Blue Collar Tribe: Ok, so I’ll take this one at a time, and frankly this is highly presumptuous of me, but screw it, I am very confident that the winner isn’t coming from Blue Collar. This tribe is a hot mess of people who are all coming off badly. In truth there is one person on Blue collar I think still can win, but I couldn’t resist locking up the entire tribe all at once. This may be my Andy-zero-percenting-Tony-after-episode-one moment, but if I’m not bold what is the fun in this post?
Dan: I actually think that Dan is going to stick around for a really long time, but I just don’t see how he can win. This was his best episode, and he still spent half the time pissing people off. I just don’t see the qualities here that would support someone getting jury votes at the end when all we see is him pissing people off.
Mike: Mike is somehow coming off even worse than Dan! It takes some seriously poor social skills to get Dan off the bottom of this tribe, but Mike managed it easily. Well done, Mike! Anything you have to say?
Rodney: Rodney revealed the inner angry, thin-skinned person that we all knew he was. You can’t win Survivor throwing temper tantrums and yelling at people, even if you are right. Plus, as John and Andy pointed out, he will be perceived as a physical threat. Good luck Rodney, you have no shot. I imagine this is how your time on Survivor will end:
Sierra: Sierra barely appeared in the first episode, and since then has only appeared less and less. Maybe it’s a good thing to be invisible on a tribe that I think is a trainwreck, but when she did appear it was to complain about someone else. We have heard basically nothing positive from any of these people. That is really why I think none of them have a shot.
Lindsey: This is the one person on Blue Collar I can see winning. So why did I zero-percent her? Because I wanted to throw in the whole tribe. I thought it would be cool. That said, what have we seen from her? We saw her shouting at other members of her tribe and in past weeks complaining about how they are untrustworthy. I think she fits into the entire story about how Blue Collar doesn’t get along with each other and will fracture when swapped. This is probably premature, but I’ll stand by it.
Summary: (people in bold have been eliminated)
Me: Will, Rodney, Nina, Dan, Mike, Sierra, Kelly, Lindsey, Joaquin
Andy: Will, Rodney, Nina, Dan
John: Will, Rodney, Nina, Dan, Alec
Matt is the founder and president of the Andrew Savage fan club, and remains amazed that Savage was never invited back on the show. You can’t follow Matt on Twitter, because he doesn’t want you to.