The Winner:
Jenn: I’ve been saying it for a few weeks now, but I think Jenn is winning. Did you hear her turtle quote? Come on, that is a total winner’s quote. And no collar has the tightest alliance in the game right now. Also, Jenn has received pretty consistent attention from the edit, even in this past episode when only a few people on her tribe got confessionals. I think she is winning, so prepare yourself for Queen Jenn.
The Threats:
Joe: Joe dodged a bullet, and now that the merge is coming he should be fine, right? Well, maybe not. Joe’s biggest problem right now is that people know how dangerous Joe is, and with a three-tribe season none of the original tribes have the numbers. He might be tight with the other three no collars, and they might seize control, but at some point I think attention turns to Joe. If it doesn’t though, I think Joe beats anyone in front of a jury.
Tyler: Tyler has still received enough of an edit to date for me to not rule him out, but here is my question: if Tyler was winning, why was he so invisible this past episode, when one of his key allies was voted out? Shouldn’t we have seen Tyler doing something to try and help himself? Or did the show not feature Tyler because he lost an ally and this way it doesn’t reflect on him? Either way, I think if a Wet Blanket wins it’s Tyler, not Carolyn, but he just got burned.
Hali: Hali is my pick for dark horse winner. She hasn’t done a lot to this point, but I think she is well-liked, at the center of her alliance, but less of a target than Joe or Jenn. If this season gets really chaotic and turns into a leader whack-a-mole, I could see Hali emerging on top as everything crumbles around her.
Hang in There, Baby:
Shirin:
I’m with John on Shirin’s chances. (Editor’s note: Call off hitman.) Do you really give someone that much air time on an episode where the tribe doesn’t go to tribal? I think the only person on that tribe that got a confessional that wasn’t Shirin was Queen Jenn. And think about what the confessionals Shirin got were about. She had one that asked you to sympathize with her for a tough childhood being bullied. She talked about how she had to adapt and fit in and start forging bonds. And then we saw her forging those very bonds at the reward. In other words, they may not have liked Shirin at first, but I think that is changing, and I think Shirin is starting to win over some of the people who didn’t know her as well. Will she win? Well, I think Jenn is winning, but I do think she has a chance.
Wait Until Next Week:
Carolyn: I’m really, really close to adding Carolyn. John and Andy have already pulled the trigger and their reasoning is why I am so close. She is just joyless, and I don’t think the show portrays the winner acting so miserably. But I want to wait one more week and see what she does in the merge. If she isn’t featured, or if she comes off as miserably as she usually does, she gets added.
Zero Percent Club
Geez who haven’t I put in here? Well, no one new this week since half the remaining cast is in here:
Nina: GONE!
Lindsey: GONE!
Joaquin: GONE!
Kelly: I just don’t think she gets the airtime a winner gets. Survivor does underserve female winners, so I will admit I was hasty with her. But I still just don’t see it.
Will: Will didn’t do anything this episode, so I have nothing new to say about him.
Mike: Mike is my one regret. I put too much stock into episodes 2 and 3 and didn’t give him the credit from the first episode. Mike is savvy and in control. However, this is the time of game when the Mikes of the game get targeted. If Blue Collar loses the initial power struggle at the merge, Mike could be an obvious choice to send home. If he doesn’t get distracted,
he might be able to see that danger and avoid it. Honestly, I think he might be gone this episode.
Dan: Dan is still the worst, and somehow he keeps getting worse. Dan could be the biggest goat ever, only I don’t think people can put up with him for 39 days. And yet this episode showed that he is more tolerable than…
Rodney: God Rodney sucks, but damn was it beautiful to watch him lose his ally.
Sierra: Sierra got her way, but even getting her way she lost someone she seemed to get along with. I know secret scenes show why she opted for Joaquin over Rodney or Joe, but the fact that it was in a secret scene says a lot. Sierra is a pawn.
Matt is the founder and president of the Andrew Savage fan club, and remains amazed that Savage was never invited back on the show (Editor’s note: Yet! See a future post/podcast for more details.). You can’t follow Matt on Twitter, because he doesn’t want you to.
Matt is convinced that all Survivor contestants named Michel(l)e are bad tv and you cannot prove he ever said otherwise. Also if he ever takes a strong stance about why everyone else is wrong, it is he that is inevitably wrong.
Favorite seasons: Micronesia, Heroes vs. Villains, Palau, Philippines, Pearl Islands, Cagayan