Survivor Cambodia Week 8 Predictions and Poll

After a cluster-expletive merge, we dust ourselves off and try to make sense of what’s happening in Survivor: Cambodia.

Emma: Alright, so it was a crazy merge episode, but do we think it’s going to just be the easy vote of Ciera next week?

John: Nnnnnnooooope.

Mark: Too many people looking to make a move at the moment.

John: Yes and the reason is what they gave us in the preview: Stephen.

Matt: Yeah I think 6 days as a merged tribe mean some people have now sized up where people stand.

Mark: That may include her, but there are other targets to earn Savage’s ire, because he is the new majority ringleader.

John: No. Savage is the front man. Jeremy is the ringleader.

Matt: Correct, John.

Mark: Granted he’s also like Speaker of the Bayon House trying to wrangle factions.

Emma: They do think Ciera is dangerous though, it’s not just the last member of a dead alliance thing

Andy: And her performance at TC didn’t make her look LESS dangerous.

John: Let’s consider who Ciera can pull.

John: Spencer, Kelley, Abi-Maria, Stephen. Any more?

Andy: Could we see a…. dramatic cue… WOMEN’S ALLIANCE!?!

Emma: We don’t know what her relationship was with Kimmi. She said the reason she voted Savage was she could see Tasha working with her in the future. But can Tasha see that?

Andy: Kelley and Ciera specifically didn’t vote Tasha.

John: Nah. There isn’t enough girl power in this crew to do it. They don’t have the ladyballs.

Emma: They’re called ovaries, John.

John: Ladyballs.

Matt: Where did Ciera say this Emma?

Emma: Twitter

Andy: Anyway, I don’t think there will be a Women’s Alliance. But it’d be funny if it happened with these women after Shirin and Monica tried and failed to get one going.

John: So let’s say Ciera approaches Stephen, and Stephen is willing to make a move here. The only way it would work is if Stephen convinces the large group to split votes again on Abi-Maria and Ciera.

Andy: It’ll be funny if the Know It All proponent of split votes uses one to sabotage it.

John: Yes!

Emma: Rob would have a field day.

Andy: But I don’t see Stephen willing to betray that many jury members.

John: Almost like he was just waiting for his second chance to try that. Second chance. Second chance.

Andy: Under reported: Stephen is a little weak-willed with the treachery stuff.

John: Stephen seems very convinced that he needs to build a resume this time, though.

Andy: You guys: I’m this close to putting Stephen at zero percent chance of winning.

Emma: You just want to troll the world, Andy.

John: So if he’s doing this, it would be in a way that would have his group with numbers all the way to the end. So he needs 6.

Andy: I think Stephen’s best opportunity went away when he voted out Kass.

Mark: I think Stephen is going to freak people out with his scheming though. You wondered how Ciera gets the target off of her.

Matt: Okay so according to John, Stephen needs 6. Can he get there?

Andy: Alright, you’ve all convinced me: Stephen Fishbach is going home next week.

Matt: Dammit, that was my prediction!

Andy: Because, no, he can’t get there.

Emma: Perhaps that means it’s time for everyone to lay out their predictions.

Andy: No one even thought for a minute that Stephen was flippable. He was securely on the bro-out side this week. Which means that no one has a good enough relationship with him for him to work.

Matt: Yeah if Stephen is suddenly up for grabs that will terrify his partners too.

Andy: It’ll confirm everything that has already been laid out in the edit.

Matt: And need I remind you what the Survivor Wiki said about Stephen?

John: Right. I don’t think Stephen can get there.

Andy: He needed to do it this week.

John: We’ve seen that he can’t move Joe. Or Jeremy. Or Tasha.

Andy: He needed to have conversations with old Bayon members Kass and Ciera. But Stephen forgot what it was like at the bottom of the Bayon brotherhood, he big-timed them. This hasn’t been the story of Stephen Fishbach beating Andrew Savage. This has been the story of why he fails. (Which is probably why it’s been loaded to the gills with fail).

Yes, that was a fish pun.

Emma: Booooooooo

Andy: Anyone want to argue against this?

Emma: In principle, but I really don’t have anything to back it up.

Matt: This is the argument that it isn’t Stephen: It’s Savage.

Matt: Because the show used this entire episode to set up one character, and that was Savage.

Emma: That has been the trend of episodes in the past.

Matt: And why is it doing that if we don’t think Savage is going to win? Because he is going home.

Mark: Well that was my prediction, but if Joe loses immunity everything holds off a week. And we all know how quickly things can change.

John: Stephen’s arc isn’t one of growth. Spencer’s is. So if a nerd is rising to defeat the alphas, it’s Spencer.

Mark: Spencer + Kelley is a dangerous duo.

Andy: Is it though? Or do we just want it to be?

Matt: Is Spencer’s arc one of growth?

Andy: Yes.

John: YES.

Emma: I can definitely see Kelley being forgotten as they get rid of Ta Keo people. And then she slips her way through.

Also: seriously, Matt?

Mark: They got a full minute of hanging out and talking, and both went with the wind, laying the groundwork for some stealth move.

Emma: Yeah, the fact that Kelley got the information that it was Kass is pretty important, I think.

Matt: I mean sure Spencer has upgraded his operating system. He’s running at least Windows 7 right now, but I’m not sure he is getting to Windows 10.

John: They could subtitle this season “The coming of age of Spencer Bledsoe”. That’s how on the nose it’s been with that shit.

Mark: Still don’t think he’s winning.

Emma: Okay Matt, explain it again but try to be a bigger nerd about it.

Matt: I don’t think my analogy is accurate enough to be nerdier about it!

Mark: Spencer is clearly on Linux. But he’s finding his way over to OSX.

Andy: I like Kelley Wentworth as much as the next guy, and was pushing her since before SJDS. But let’s list her Survivor successes thus far:
1. Found an idol
2. ???

John: I think Kelley’s success has been integrating herself into alliances as necessary.

Matt: I think Kelley’s story is so idol centric that I think her only role on this season is to play the idol in a big move and then go home.

Mark: Kelley has a tight bond with Joe and Keith and Spencer and has never been discussed as a threat. That gets you far.

John: She’s been going where the votes go, and she’s not being targeted for doing so.

Emma:
2. Got in with an alliance when she was on the bottom
3. Joe and Keith may not have been on her sort of side, but they do seem to care for her as an ally.

Andy: So tight that she got to sit there with Kass, Ciera, and Abi while everyone else talked strategy.

Mark: Yeah, but when she gets inevitably targeted she has the upper hand.

Emma: Joe fricken put his game on the line to keep her from being voted out before an immunity challenge happened.

Okay, maybe not on the line. But he definitely put himself out there.

John: I think Joe and Keith were willing to be on her side, but bailed when the numbers went too far the other way. They weren’t risking themselves to save Kass.

Andy: Again, I like her. Still think she’s a potential winner. But let’s cool it with “Kelley Wentworth is dangerous”.

Emma: Subtly dangerous. Ciera is dangerous for stirring shit up, Kelley is dangerous for sneak attack reasons.

Mark: I still don’t see her as the winner. But she is dangerous.

Andy: And Spencer has yet to influence a critical vote in Survivor.

Mark: Who led the Vytas charge? Shirin?

Andy: Yes.

Andy: Spencer was an important swing vote for all of an afternoon, until Keith took that from him too.

Mark: Could Spencer be HvV Parvati? Very influential but not enough to get a win?

John: In that he gets to the end by being a flirty sexy flirting sexpot?

Emma: Yes.

John: YES.

Emma: Obviously.

Mark: All computer programs can malfunction and overcompensate.

I LOVE YOU. AND YOU. AND YOU.

John: NOT YOU, WIGLES.

Andy: I’m willing to say that they COULD be dangerous. Not willing to say that they ARE.

Emma: I think I’m actually in this line.

Andy: So where are we at? Me and Matt say Fishbach, Mark says Savage?

John: I’m going to join the Fishbach majority. I see where the votes are going here.

Matt: Dammit John, stop being such a Keith.

Emma: I’m going with Ciera because SCREW YOU GUYS, STEPHEN’S THE BEST. [sobs]

Andy: Here’s another part of my Fishbach prediction: Ciera throws him under the bus to save herself.

Matt: Ciera would never do that!

John: I’m fine with that. Though I don’t know if it’s necessary. Like Savage won’t take much convincing.

Andy: Ciera THREW HER MOM UNDER THE BUS!!! Did you guys know that?

Matt: Ciera voted out her mom? This is the first time I heard about it

Andy: She should’ve voted “Savage (Mom)”

John: Seriously. So disappointed she didn’t.

Andy: John might’ve even become a fan if she did.

John: You know what? I’m actually more on board this season anyway.

Andy: Emma: why Ciera? Because it’s painfully obvious? And maybe we shouldn’t overthink these things?

Emma: I thought I made my reasoning clear: Because screw you guys.

Andy: Getting back to my point of people being willing to punt decision-making: I think a lot of people are thrown by this whole “merge at 13” thing. So they were all like “Kass isn’t me. Not me = good. Let’s do it”.

Emma: No but yeah, we were bound to get an obvious boot eventually. Even Stephen might realize that it’s safer to cull the herd a bit before making a Big Move.

Andy: Like, does targeting Kass and Ciera signal super active game play? Maybe it does? Maybe it’s the recognition that the old “target big threats” dynamic has really served non-threats in the past. Which isn’t so hot if you happen to be a threat.

Matt: Kass is a fucking threat people!

Andy: Well, there’s that.

Emma: I believe Andy is referring to physical threats.

Matt: Andy spends too much time thinking about physical threats.

Andy: More “stereotypical threat”

Emma: That works too.

Matt: Yeah they aren’t stereotypical threats, but they are threats.

Andy: Because, yes. Ciera and Kass actually are threats.

Matt: If anything I think it speaks well of the game that it has evolved to where we can recognize non-stereotypical threats as threats

Emma: Similarly, a person can be a threat to you rather than a threat to win.

Andy: Mark: why do you think Savage, who just got 9 other people to vote with him, is suddenly going home next week? Where are these votes coming from?

Mark: Wait when did I say Savage?

Andy: Didn’t you?

Mark: No? My original prediction was Stephen

Matt: I said it might be Savage, but only as a counter to why it might not be Stephen. Because both times I got it right I judged off a preview. So I kinda want to stick to that. But also, Ciera is tempting.

John: So Emma is the only dissenting opinion?

Emma: And only out of pure stubbornness!

John: We’re the 4 out of 5 dentists recommending Crest, and you’re the holdout. RECOMMEND CREST, EMMA!

Emma: COLGATE FOREVERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.

Mark: I just don’t think this is going to be a boring group who just picks off the next in line. Ciera is not long for this world, but I think Stephen’s plan backfires.

Matt: It is weird we are all thinking Stephen right? Like that doesn’t seem the most logical pick.

John: I like Stephen. And I’ve thoroughly enjoyed him on this season. But he’s in a bad spot here.

Andy: No, I legit think that he blew his chance this week. I didn’t come in thinking it was going to cost him this early, but I’ve come around to that.

Mark: Just think, if I’m wrong and Emma’s right, she ties it up. If I’m right, I still win so far.

John: It’s a marathon, not a sprint.

Matt: Ugh Mark is playing this stupid game where he’s nursing his one point lead.

Predictions

	Andy	John	Emma	Mark	Matt	Readers
First Out	Abi-Maria	Kelly	Abi-Maria	Spencer	Spencer	Vytas
Second Out	Abi-Maria	Abi-Maria	Terry	Abi-Maria	Peih-Gee	N/A
Third Out	Abi-Maria	Kimmi	Joe	Jeremy	Monica	Savage
Fourth Out	Tasha	Varner	Abi-Maria	Abi-Maria	Abi-Maria	Abi-Maria
Fifth Out	Kimmi	Kimmi	Monica	Monica	Spencer	Monica
Eighth Out	Tasha	Savage	Savage	Kass	Savage	Savage
Ninth Out	Fishbach	Fishbach	Ciera	Fishbach	Fishbach	Fishbach
Score
Preseason Winner Pick	Monica	Varner	Kelley	Monica	Varner	Kelley
Quarter- Season Winner Pick	Kelley	Tasha	Kelley	Jeremy	Jeremy	Kelley