Survivor David vs Goliath Week 11 Predictions

Welcome to your week 11 predictions, AKA let’s see who has the stones to predict Christian.

Staff Predictions


Because I don’t think this game is done flipping around, I’m gonna go with Kara this week. Either that, or she’s winning the whole thing. Not sure which.


So on the pod, I predicted Alison with not much of an explanation. I think I have one now. There are two conjectures that this prediction is based on: (1) Gabby is serious about gunning for Christian; (2) If Gabby is serious about gunning for Christian, then she is warning them about his idol. We know that Gabby and Alison are allied at this point, and Alison and Kara are allied as well. Kara can bring in Mike White, and Mike White may be able to bring in Angelina (who will not be excited to vote with Alison and Kara, but I think she’d be down to vote for Christian). This makes for five players targeting Christian, and with the potential opposition being three players, they won’t be able to vote-split.

They would be able to vote split if they brought in Nick or Davie, but that presumes that the other would be the secondary target, which the person brought in would not be okay with. Side-note: this could be solved if Nick/Davie was only told about the Christian vote and Gabby-Alison-Kara split off to vote for Nick/Davie in secret. But if Nick and Davie don’t Stick To The Plan, then the majority of votes are no longer on Christian; this leads me to think that they would just pile votes on Christian and try to blindside him as a means of keeping his idol unplayed.

However, sticking to the plan may be the thing that is least optimal for Nick’s game. He’ll have three options this Tribal (in this scenario): vote for Christian; vote with Christian, or vote for some third person who is neither Christian nor Christian’s target. If word gets to Nick about Christian’s idol, then he won’t vote for Christian. If he votes with Christian, he’ll have to negotiate the target with Christian, and the break between the M***n-D***n alliance seems inevitable if you look at the previous vote and the bonus content from yesterday. Plus, if Gabby is turning on Christian, I don’t feel that Nick is particularly more loyal to him than Gabby is. So we’ll rule out voting with Christian, which leaves the vote for a third person.

Who might this third person be? Maybe Alison, the (failed) target of the previous vote and the glue holding the current majority together. All Nick would need to do is vote with Davie for Alison. It’d be a 5-2-1 vote where either Alison or Christian goes home depending on idol plays, and hell, this math even checks out if Angelina votes with Nick and Davie instead of the other side. Is this complicated as hell? Sure, but more likely in the wake of a minority vote split. But is this even doper as heller? You better believe it. Please make it happen, Survivor Gods.


Christian has been shown as the target for several previews now, so I think he’ll last just a bit longer. However, another male David won’t be so lucky. While it was in a secret scene, only Christian and Gabby have been shown to see Nick for the potential threat he is, and Christian has clearly already chosen his ride or die, so might as well vote out Mason. Or Dixon. Whatever. I’m saying they’ll vote out Nick and he won’t play his idol and I’ll laugh and laugh.


We’re almost to the point where the women become the majority of the remaining players. But to get there, they’ll need to get rid of one more man. Lucky for them, the obvious targets are Christian, Davie, Nick, or Angelina. If you’re not a math major, that’s a group that’s 75% men. So when determining a target this week, odds are pretty good they can find a guy worth taking out. Christian seems like an obvious target, but he has an idol, and his “obvious target” status gives the women someone they can always get the group to vote for. So this week, the move is to take out Davie, thus giving the women the majority and taking someone out from the group that was on the wrong side of the vote at the last tribal.


With Gabby and the girls targeting Christian, and his immunity win the day before, I think Christian HAS to play his idol this week. So he’s safe. I also don’t think Christian goes after Gabby. Angelina is going to be Abi Maria her way to the finale and Mike is going to continue to flail forward. So if the Gab-liaths are targeting a guy, it makes sense to go after Davie because he’s a threat and made the showy idol play a few days ago.


I do not think the time has yet to come for Christian to go home, which is a problem because who goes home if not Christian? Well, there are two ways the target might move off Christian, the first is simply he plays an idol. If that happens then he probably targets Gabby or someone very closely aligned with Gabby (like Alison). But I don’t think that is what will happen. Instead, I think the target will move off of Christian because they will decide to wait another week, lie low and lull Christian into a false sense of security. So I’m saying that Davie will go home. The theory here is that Gabby, Alison and Kara will look to keep Christian around for one more vote, they will want someone out who is a threat and they will want to cut off someone that he could align with. Nick probably fits these criteria better, but Davie has made more noticeable plays and so I think he is the target. Davie goes home.


Andy Brad Emma John
Mark Matt
2nd Boot Lyrsa Carl Nick Nick Nick Jessica Nick
3rd Boot Natalie Natalie Natalie Dan Natalie Kara Natalie
4th Out Gabby Bi Bi Bi Bi Bi Bi
6th Boot Natalie Natalie Natalie Natalie Natalie Natalie
7th Boot Angelina Angelina Angelina Lyrsa Angelina Lyrsa Angelina
8th Boot Angelina Alec Angelina Alec Alec Carl Alec
9th Boot Angelina Dan Angelina Carl Carl Angelina Dan
10th Boot Dan Dan Dan Dan Mike Dan Dan
11th Boot Angelina Angelina Angelina Mike Kara Alison Angelina
12th Boot Alec Alison Alec Alec Carl Alec Carl
13th Out Kara Alison Nick Davie Davie Davie

Who's going home this week?

  • Davie (35% Votes)
  • Alison (21% Votes)
  • Gabby (16% Votes)
  • Angelina (8% Votes)
  • Christian (8% Votes)
  • Mike White (8% Votes)
  • Nick (3% Votes)
  • Kara (1% Votes)

Total Voters: 91

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