Survivor Edge of Extinction Finale Predictions

Time to predict an outcome without even knowing who all the people competing to do it will be. It’s a good thing the edit has helped us out, huh?

Note: Predictors will get credit for getting the position of the EoE returnee correct, even if they get the wrong returnee.

Staff Predictions


I’ll say that the Edge of Extinction returnee will be David, because the people need, nay DEMAND more Rick and David content. I hope Rick gets a confessional about how he hopes to see David back in the game and then one about David coming back.

The new final six will result in Rick and the EoE returnee (I say David, but it applies to anyone but Aurora) teaming with Julie against Victoria, Lauren, and Gavin. Could we see a rock draw? Nah. We had video evidence that neither Lauren nor Victoria are about that rock draw to save someone else life. Meanwhile, Rick and EoE returnee have to go for it, and I’ll say Julie will out of frustration and rage. Buh bye Gavin. (Let’s say Rick won immunity here too, fer laughs).

At final five, Rick still has his immunity idol (according to my prediction). Lauren might too if she knows to bail on Gavin early enough. Since everyone knows Rick has an idol (unless they think it fake), he’s not even going to need to play it (but he will), and instead go after the EoE returnee. Rick no longer needs this person for numbers either, so even he’ll join in (in fact, he or Julie would need to, as Victoria and Lauren’s reign of “running the game” will equal “settled on secondary targets for three rounds”). Interestingly, Lauren’s idol will probably be known fact too, thanks to Kelley informing everyone upon her EoE arrival. She probably won’t need to play it as a result.

At final four, Rick wins immunity and brings Julie to the finals. Lauren wins fire making and Victoria goes home. I am sad that I never had the opportunity to end an episode with a clip from “Victoria” by The Kinks. Part of me wants winning fire making to be part of Rick’s run to the title, because I want to know if I can hear people’s heads explode all the way in my time zone.

Julie gets zero votes (not even Ron’s) and finishes third.

Lauren has a shot at Victoria’s and Kelley’s votes, either one will be enough for second.

Rick wins with the most jury votes in the history of Survivor and the internet goes “ohhhh, so THAT’s why he was the focus of the endgame of the season”. (Look, I had to be laughably wrong about at least one prediction).


EoE returnee: Aurora
Sixth place: Gavin
Fifth place: Victoria
Fourth place: Aurora
Third place: Julie
Second place: Lauren
Winner: Rick Devens


This has been a tough season to predict, especially for me, who has only done better than Andy (who always sucks at this). The rest of the season seems pretty predictable, but maybe that’s just what they want you to think! So I figure I’ll use some strategy here and take a swing by picking the dark horse. After all, Adam won instead of David. Michele won instead of Aubry. Shit happens, and I’m going to lose anyway, let’s have some fun.

Chris will return from EoE because that seems like a total crapshoot, he read his letter on a big fancy rock, and I want him to. Not only will he return, but he’ll win immunity, meaning Rick plays an idol, so Lauren plays hers as well. Turns out Victoria and Gavin realized they should have turned on Lauren last tribal, and they voted for her this one instead, so no votes count. The others use this as an opportunity to remove an immunity threat. Sixth place: Gavin

Fifth place: Chris wins immunity again and Rick finds the final idol of the season, infuriating the internet that idols continue to be rehidden at the final five, which has been the case for many seasons. Lauren is able to get Julie and the edge-men to target Victoria, and she goes home and we are sad about it.

Fourth place: The prophecy has been foretold. Lauren mentioned fire once or twice, and even though I think that’s usually shown people losing at fire (at least with Devon, tragically), this time it’s a sign of victory, because Survivor editing is nothing if not completely consistent with things like that. Naturally, Chris won immunity again (it was a “who’s the most handsome” contest, what can you do?) and he takes Julie with him to the final three, allowing Lauren to finally get rid of Rick because she makes a fire faster than he does.

Third: Julie gets third place, because she is a middle-aged mother and those are the rules.

Second: His underdog story and immunity run nets Chris a few votes, but there are so many to go around, so it’s not enough to clinch the title, and he will settle for his imperfect runner-up game.

Winner: Lauren, and the casuals are furious.


As I mentioned on the podcast, the key to figuring this whole game out is to use the most important Survivor metric there is: confessional counts. If a person talks into the camera the most times, that tells you all you need to know about who will win the season. Last season’s winner Angelina had the most confessionals, as you would expect. The season before that, Domenick had over 25 more confessionals than anyone else on his march to victory. And in Kaoh Rong, Tai narrowly edged out Aubry for the most confessionals as the producers rammed those two awful players down our throats. So let’s check that confessional scoreboard and find out who wins this season.

With 30 confessionals, your EOE returnee is Kween Kelley, who made her name as the scrappy underdog that finds idols. She must come back into the game and align with Rick and Julie, because the infallible confessional count data tells us that Victoria is going home in 6th place (her 20 confessionals weren’t enough to save her). Perhaps Kelley gets a challenge win or finds an idol to advance- that would be exciting! Anyway, televised void Gavin goes home in 5th place with 22 confessionals. And then, also with 22 confessionals but with a crucial subtitled use of the word “fire” this season, Lauren finishes in 4th place (you see, she must’ve said “fire” earlier because she loses a fire challenge- it’s the only explanation).

Thus, the final three:
3rd place: Julie (25 confessionals)
2nd place: Kelley (30)
Winner: Rick (51)


For the EoE returnee, I’m going to change what I said last week and pick someone who didn’t get a letter confessional. Which leaves us with… Aurora?

Unfortunately, since Rick still has his idol, the rest can’t vote him out, Lauren plays hers, and they repeat the Aurora vote. She’s gone.

Next is Gavin, who is somehow seen as a threat and not a giant pineapple to eat.

Lauren still wants to work with Julie (aka beat her in the finals), so with Gavin and Aurora gone, she barely beats Rick for the final immunity challenge, takes Julie to the end, and Rick and Victoria play for fire. He wins, Vic loses.

Final three… Julie gets the Monica treatment at FTC and comes in third. (Editor’s note: Monica came in second). Lauren gets some credit for immunity, idols, and surviving from Manu. She gets a solid chunk of the votes for second place and from late game players.

But, whether you like it or not, Rick wins based on the support from his old EoE pals and everyone who was hollering during the Julia vote (Editor’s note: that was only five people. It’s possible he means the Ron vote). It’s enough to win in a 25-person jury, and the Internet goes all (╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻


Prediction: so I haven’t watched the episode yet because I was away so I looked up what happened and I’m pretty sure I got this prediction spot on as always.

EoE return is gonna be David. I mean, we all want Reem, I know but let’s be real for a sec.

6th: won’t really matter who returns because I’m pretty sure they are going home immediately. So the EoE returnee is the first boot.

5th: with the EoE returnee out and Rick likely immune either through idol or challenge, Gavin is the biggest threat because he has spoken a few words and that just cannot be allowed.

4th: Lauren goes home in fourth. No one is voting out Julie at this point, so it’s really just Victoria or Lauren and I think Victoria is better at just latching onto where the vote is going. (Editor’s note: Matt must be too jetlagged to remember that there is no vote at final four).

3rd: Julie finishes third. I really can’t see anyone voting for her. Ron is one possibility I guess but honestly, I fully expect him to vote Rick.

2nd: Victoria gets like two votes probably from the 4th and 5th place finishers.

1st: Probst doesn’t have to read all 13 jury votes thank god as Rick wins in a landslide. Least likely contestant to pull a Mike Holloway style victory ever. Also, I’m sure when I was away everyone came around on rick and his victory will he received super well by the internet


Andy Brad Emma John
Mark Matt
2nd Boot Wendy Keith Wendy Wendy Keith Wendy Wendy
3rd Boot Wendy Wendy Wendy Wendy Wendy Wendy Wendy
4th Boot Wendy Aubry Kelley Aurora Wendy Aurora Wendy
5th or 6th Boot Wendy Aubry Wendy Aubry Wendy Wendy Wendy
7th Boot Wendy Julia Dan Joe Dan Dan Dan
EoE returnee Wendy Chris Rick Rick Chris Rick Rick
8th boot Ron Wardrobe Ron David Ron Ron Ron
9th boot Ron Gavin Ron David David David Julia
10th boot Gavin Aurora Rick David Gavin Julie Aurora
11th boot Julie Gavin Gavin Gavin Dan Gavin Wardog
12th boot Aurora Wardog Gavin Rick Ron Wardog Wardog
13th boot Rick Rick Rick Rick Ron Ron Ron
14th boot Rick Rick Rick Gavin Gavin Rick Rick
EoE returnee David Aurora Chris Kelley Aurora David
6th Place Gavin Gavin Gavin Victoria Aurora David
5th Place David Victoria Victoria Gavin Gavin Gavin
4th Place Victoria Aurora Rick Lauren Victoria Lauren
3rd Place Julie Julie Julie Julie Julie Julie
2nd Place Lauren Lauren Chris Kelley Lauren Victoria
Winner Rick Rick Lauren Rick Rick Rick

Your Turn

Who will return from the Edge of Extinction?

  • Aurora (17% Votes)
  • Chris (16% Votes)
  • Joe (16% Votes)
  • Aubry (15% Votes)
  • David (10% Votes)
  • Kelley (10% Votes)
  • Reem (7% Votes)
  • Wardog (3% Votes)
  • Eric (2% Votes)
  • Julia (1% Votes)
  • Ron Clark (1% Votes)

Total Voters: 96

Loading ... Loading ...

Who will be the sixth place finisher of Survivor: Edge of Extinction?

  • Gavin (52% Votes)
  • EoE Returnee (26% Votes)
  • Victoria (12% Votes)
  • Julie (4% Votes)
  • Rick (4% Votes)
  • Lauren (2% Votes)

Total Voters: 84

Loading ... Loading ...

Who will be the fifth place finisher of Survivor: Edge of Extinction?

  • EoE Returnee (46% Votes)
  • Gavin (19% Votes)
  • Rick (15% Votes)
  • Victoria (10% Votes)
  • Lauren (7% Votes)
  • Julie (4% Votes)

Total Voters: 81

Loading ... Loading ...

Who will be the fourth place finisher of Survivor: Edge of Extinction?

  • Victoria (34% Votes)
  • Rick (27% Votes)
  • Lauren (15% Votes)
  • EoE Returnee (10% Votes)
  • Gavin (7% Votes)
  • Julie (7% Votes)

Total Voters: 82

Loading ... Loading ...

Who will be the third place finisher of Survivor: Edge of Extinction?

  • Julie (79% Votes)
  • Victoria (5% Votes)
  • Lauren (4% Votes)
  • EoE Returnee (4% Votes)
  • No one (tie for second place) (4% Votes)
  • Gavin (3% Votes)
  • Rick (3% Votes)

Total Voters: 80

Loading ... Loading ...

Who will be the second place finisher of Survivor: Edge of Extinction?

  • Lauren (41% Votes)
  • Victoria (27% Votes)
  • Gavin (14% Votes)
  • EoE Returnee (10% Votes)
  • Julie (5% Votes)
  • Rick (4% Votes)

Total Voters: 79

Loading ... Loading ...

Who will win Survivor: Edge of Extinction?

  • Rick (51% Votes)
  • Lauren (30% Votes)
  • EoE Returnee (11% Votes)
  • Victoria (6% Votes)
  • Gavin (2% Votes)
  • Julie (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 89

Loading ... Loading ...