Survivor Edge of Extinction Week 4 Predictions

It’s swap time, AKA predict whatever you want to because it’s likely to be a random boot. OR WILL IT?!?

Staff Predictions


“Person who messes with the food gets the boot” seems as likely a rule to follow for predicting this week’s banishee. The swap obviously muddles that, but if I were someone new to the dynamics with Wendy, I probably wouldn’t need much more convincing than “she won’t let you eat meat in peace” as a reason to vote for her. (Unless of course, I think I can use that to get her to vote for someone else).


Wendy seems ambulatory, and as long as she isn’t complete dead weight in challenges, I think she’ll immediately flip to any combination of the Kama 6 and survive another tribal. What about the chickens? I hear you asking. Well, if you think ole Wendy won’t be able to wriggle out of this one, I just don’t know what to tell you.

So the other two people who we’ve seen as targets are Wentworth and Aubry. Running down the list of people I think would target Wentworth: David, Wendy, and the Kama 6 makes 8 people (Rick isn’t stupid enough to try this right after a swap unless it’s only him and Wentworth against three of the Kama 6) and btw, there’s only a 2% chance Rick gets in that situation.

People targeting Aubry: The Kama 6, the four Manu newbies, and maybe we’ll give half credit to David simply based on the way he’s targeting Wentworth. If Aubry has 10.5 enemies who she might end up with, the odds tilt towards her going home over Wentworth.

Two postscripts: (1) Between Aubry and the field, I take the field. But I guess that’s not how this works. (2) I don’t know why I said quick, this wasn’t quick at all.

Editor’s note: me, I would’ve factored Aubry’s idol into my math, but I’m not as big a math expert as Brad.


Wendy seems the obvious choice if she sets chickens free, but I think we’re going to see Manu regret not voting her out when they had the chance. There would be a kind of poetry to Wentworth getting swap screwed once again, so I guess I’ll go with that since predicting without even knowing who is one what tribe is essentially impossible.


Hey, do you guys remember Aurora? If the answer is no, good news! You won’t have to anymore, because Aurora was mentioned last week as someone that is loyal to both Joe and Aubry. And if Aurora ends up on a new tribe with a bunch of her old tribemates (but obviously not on Joe’s tribe, because they will not lose immunity and will thus not be attending tribal council), her lack of enthusiasm to toe the party line and get rid of these camera-hogging returnees will be her undoing.


With the lack of any tidbits about the tribe swap, I have to go off of the episode preview. The same preview where Wendy released the chickens after “borrowing” the flint to light her edit on fire. Sorry, Wendy. Maybe you can take a chicken with you to Extinction Island?


I’m going with Aurora this week. Obviously, I have no idea how the swaps shake out and there are now a lot of good candidates. I kinda doubt Wendy is going to suddenly not be a target, especially if she releases the chickens. Also, Aubry and Joe have big targets on their backs, but I doubt a tribe will want to lose joes obvious challenge strength. But Aurora was lumped in with those two last week after hearing very little about her the first two weeks. That suggests to me that may matter sooner rather than later. So I’m saying she gets voted out this week.

Andy Brad Emma John
Mark Matt
2nd Boot Wendy Keith Wendy Wendy Keith Wendy Wendy
3rd Boot Wendy Wendy Wendy Wendy Wendy Wendy Wendy
4th Boot Wendy Aubry Kelley Aurora Wendy Aurora

Your Turn

Time to vote for the next person to probably not leave the show.

Who will be the fourth person voted out of their tribe?

  • Wendy (31% Votes)
  • Aurora (18% Votes)
  • Kelley (12% Votes)
  • Victoria (9% Votes)
  • Julie (8% Votes)
  • David (5% Votes)
  • Julia (5% Votes)
  • Warthog (5% Votes)
  • Ron Clark (3% Votes)
  • Eric (2% Votes)
  • Joe (2% Votes)
  • Rick (2% Votes)
  • Aubry (0% Votes)
  • Gavin (0% Votes)
  • Lauren (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 65

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Who will leave The Edge of Extinction? (Check all that apply)

  • No one (82% Votes)
  • Keith (15% Votes)
  • Reem (3% Votes)
  • Chris (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 62

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