Survivor Ghost Island Week Three Predictions

Alright, now we know who’s on what tribe for the next episode and even have some ongoing storylines, that should make this week’s predictions easy non?

Staff Predictions


Here’s the machinations I laid out on the podcast on why I think the target should and could be Angela on Naviti: the best way for the former Malolos to maintain control of this new tribe is to keep the tension between Dom and Chris Noble active. Which means keeping both of them in the game for at least one more vote (since right now, the tribe division is four original Naviti and four former Malolos, and Ghost Island will ensure the next vote will be 4-3 for one side or the other. It’s best, then, to keep it 4-2-2 for this vote, with the potential of being 4-2-1 next vote). If they still suspect Dom has an idol, this is absolutely not the time to go after him, since he should be ready to play it. Obviously, they COULD team with Angela and Chris Noble on some form of vote split (the numbers depending on who goes to GI), but I’m not sure I’d trust Chris Noble with any level of power. Instead, it’s time to thin out that side of the ledger, particularly if they have allies remaining on the other tribe. Plus, there’s a small chance an aggressive player like Dom would play an idol for Wendell, anticipating that they’re dodging his idol. There’s zero chance he’s playing it for the person he voted for last week. Also: getting rid of Angela gets rid of the person who was willing to go to rocks this early in the game (clearly Domenick and Wendell weren’t, and it’s not a tough guess to assume a guy like Chris Noble isn’t putting his neck on the line for someone else). Which could be important if the following vote ends up 3-3 (with one of the former Malolos on GI).

For Malolo, everything about Bradley‘s edit last week screamed “imminent comeuppance boot” to me. It wasn’t even a villainous edit that could build for weeks. Just a twerpy guy giving the editors all the rope they with which to hang him. That happens this week with some Ghost Island and idol help. Maybe Kellyn makes it obvious who the target is due to her discomfort with stringing people she likes along.


It’s too early to pick Chris Noble to go home. But this is episode four, and history suggests that every time there is a Drew Christy, he is sent home in episode four. I don’t make the rules. If I’m correct on this one, this episode better be nothing but Chris Noble content- him repeating every line producers say to him, him openly claiming leadership in front of the tribe that has no interest in following him, etc. I want a confessional where he says something about how he was born to play this game, and that everyone respects him and his abilities SMASH CUT to everyone back at camp clowning on him.

As for the other tribe, let’s go with Jenna as the target. I’ll say the majority tries to keep Brendan, Michael, and Stephanie because they’re more useful and Jenna is unlikely to have an idol played for her.


Naviti: The four Malolos could go a few different ways with this. Maybe it’s because I have a friend rediscovering Survivor by watching SJDS, but I’m choosing to believe upon his return from Ghost Island, Chris will be ridiculous enough that he will crash and burn, giving us the Drewchebag episode we want so badly.

Malolo: The former Navitis just feel too cocky, and Michael has an idol. While Desiree and Chelsea seem virtually and completely invisible, respectively, that still seems better for their chances than their only screen time being complaints about camp. I’m pretty sure Brendan Savage, cough I mean Shapiro, would rather get rid of Bradley, and I don’t see the other three fighting that point.

Oh look at that, I just predicted both members of my Outcast league team. Great sign.


Prediction: Angela going home. I happen to agree with Andy that if they were to go to tribal council again, they would pivot and vote her out. For one, even the slight doubt that Domenick doesn’t have an idol will be quickly dispelled by Domenick, and as always the best way to beat an idol is to vote for someone who they would never suspect. Domenick will probably waste his idol and then I bet he goes home at the next vote.

I think Bradley is going home on the other tribe. Notice how we didn’t see him at all during the first episode? And then last week he was all over our TV being a huge annoyance? Yeah this is classic rise to prominence just in time to hoisted on your own petard. How will they do it? Michael’s idol. Sometimes the simplest explanation does happen.


Naviti: I’m tempted to pick Chris again because he’s coming back to camp with fewer allies than when he left (Editor’s note: I suppose if you squint hard enough, you could consider Morgan an ally of Chris. Maybe), but instead I’m going to say James. No one is going to want to challenge a 4-4 split, and maybe Dom plays his idol as revenge for last week’s betrayal. (Editor’s note: a 4-4 tie is impossible unless Mark is predicting that the show is going to alter how Ghost Island is managed in the fourth episode of the show).

Malolo: Steph J finds an idol, threatens to use it, but then Bradley complains that his Tribal torch doesn’t have as much fire as everyone else’s, and Probst will snuff it out of spite. (Editor’s note: BOLD to predict the show will put TWO active idols on Malolo beach in back-to-back episodes. I wouldn’t have gone there myself).

Andy John Emma
Matt Mark
First Boot Stephanie Stephanie Stephanie Laurel James Stephanie
Third Boot Libby Desiree Jenna Angela Chris Angela
Malolo Fourth Out Bradley Jenna Bradley Bradley Bradley
Naviti Fourth Out Angela Chris Chris Angela James

Your Turn

Time for you to make your pick. There’s no way your reasoning could be worse than Mark’s.

Who will go home from Malolo in the fourth episode?

  • Bradley (68% Votes)
  • Chelsea (10% Votes)
  • Kellyn (7% Votes)
  • Brendan (5% Votes)
  • Desiree (4% Votes)
  • Jenna (4% Votes)
  • Sebastian (1% Votes)
  • Michael (0% Votes)
  • Stephanie (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 73

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Who will go home from Naviti in the fourth episode?

  • Angela (39% Votes)
  • Chris Noble (24% Votes)
  • James (11% Votes)
  • Domenick (7% Votes)
  • Laurel (6% Votes)
  • Libby (6% Votes)
  • Wendell (6% Votes)
  • Donathan (1% Votes)

Total Voters: 71

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Did Mark watch last week's episode of Survivor?

  • There's no fucking way (69% Votes)
  • I mean... probably? (31% Votes)

Total Voters: 68

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