Hey remember how we do weekly predictions among the staff then invite our readers to do the same? I almost didn’t! But… here it is.
So this one is a little tough since I decided to take in ZERO preseason coverage. Even though this fits into our signature laziness (laziness that still somehow translated into me getting multiple posts up every week all off season), I swear that for me, this was motivated more by wanting to experiment with how this will affect my perception of the season rather than a desire not to do a podcast. Well… that and the fact that I HATE preseason coverage (for newbie seasons). The bios are almost without exception stupid. The videos not much better. And while this season offered some unparalleled longform opportunities to get to know these players in ways that the bios and videos don’t, I’m not particularly interested in who these people are BEFORE they play Survivor. Seriously, that’s what preseason coverage is: profiling and forming opinions on a bunch of people who have never played Survivor. No thanks.
But that does make picking a first boot from each of these three tribes more difficult. Now that I think about it, it should have no effect on my success rate, which I think is basically zero. I’m not sure I’ve ever predicted the first boot correctly, other than the time John and I both confidently said that Laura Boneham would be chosen to go to redemption island by her tribe and Rupert would make a big show of taking her place. Nailed that one. That was also the very first first “boot” prediction I ever publicly made. All downhill from there (and Rupert wasn’t technically the first boot).
So I guess what’s difficult is coming up with reasons for these pics. But since all I’ll be going from is their tiny head shots on the Wiki, you can probably figure out why I’m choosing who I’m choosing.
Chrissy- I don’t think this tribe will lose the first challenge anyway, but if they did I’m banking on Chrissy’s “I’m so sorry for playing Survivor” face in her cast photo makes her tribemates think she doesn’t want to be there.
Roark- The three guys align and add Desi, leaving only two potential targets. I flipped a coin and decided Roark is the one they target.
Simone- This looks like a tribe loaded with first boots. Ryan, Lauren, Patrick, and Simone all seem like they could go first. But I’ll guess it’s Simone, since at least some of the others seem like Survivor fans, and they might band together to keep each other around.
Heroes: Katrina is the wacky (relatively) older lady, especially since Chrissy intends to lie about her age. Sure, she can probably still swim well, but I don’t think this tribe is going to be worried about their physicality, since they have that in spades.
Healers: Originally I was going to say I thought they’d worry that Joe is going to be Tony. Plus he’s on John’s fantasy team. But Roark is the most popular on Pick-4, and that person has had a bad track record in recent years, so let’s go with that.
Hustlers: There are genuinely so many options, but I’m going to say Ryan because it would be cosmic justice for him to go before the WOC on the tribe. Might as well enjoy some optimism before the season starts.
Okay, picking Katrina. This is a tough pick based only on names, tribes and ages. But this tribe has two women in their mid-40s and Survivor tends to vote out older women in its first episode (unless it decides to vote out a minority woman). I think Chrissy looks more midwestern mom, so Katrina is the one that has to go.
For the aforementioned reason I want to pick Ali. Young black women seem to especially struggle on the show. Maybe they tend to cast them as foils to uptight white men who inevitably hold power over them at the beginning of the game. But instead I’m going to say Ryan who from his picture looks like a nerdy rat-fucker who people will vote out for overstrategizing on day 1.
Finally, I am going to say Mike. Looking through the headshots of this final tribe, it is like young and pretty, young, young and pretty (Cole here), sorta young and kinda muscular i guess, young and holy shit you are beautiful and Mike. One of these stands out like a sore thumb and it aint any of the young/pretty people, its the nerdy every man.
They say trust your instincts, so I put all of 30 seconds of thought into these. Fingers crossed.
Heroes: Katrina. She’s the oldest.
Healers: Joe. He’s the Tony-est.
Hustlers: Devon. He’s the douchiest.
|Heroes First Out
|Healers First Out
|Hustlers First Out
Continuing the theme of “doing something new by doing nothing”, we’re not doing winner predictions anymore. The past few seasons have proven that competing to be the earliest, most certain person of the end result of the season is hands down the least fun or interesting discussion in all of Survivor fandom. So, we’re not gonna do it anymore. Or, at least not officially. I’m sure in conversations we’ll continue to predict outcomes, because that’s pretty much how anyone discusses any ongoing story. But writing down our winner firsties for all the world to see? Miss me with that.
Time for you all to consensus pick who will be the first boot, depending on which tribe goes to tribal council.
- Katrina (59% Votes)
- Ashley (24% Votes)
- Chrissy (9% Votes)
- JP (4% Votes)
- Alan (2% Votes)
- Ben (2% Votes)
Total Voters: 54
- Mike (29% Votes)
- Joe (23% Votes)
- Roark (23% Votes)
- Desi (13% Votes)
- Jessica (10% Votes)
- Cole (2% Votes)
Total Voters: 52
- Simone (44% Votes)
- Lauren (31% Votes)
- Ryan (15% Votes)
- Patrick (6% Votes)
- Ali (2% Votes)
- Devon (2% Votes)
Total Voters: 52
Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.
Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cagayan, Cook Islands, Palau, Winners at War
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Sandra Diaz-Twine, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino