Survivor Kaoh Rong Week 2 Predictions and Poll

Now that we’ve gotten 90 minutes under our belt, I’m sure we all feel more comfortable to make our predictions on what will happen in the second episode of Survivor: Kaoh Rong. In addition, it now up to you to decide who had the better answer to the question of who will get medevaced and how from the podcast. Heady stuff.

pr_predictionsbnr_s32

Andy: I think it’s possible that Jason just thinks that voting out Alecia would be too boring. How can he make a Russell-like splash by doing the expected? Gotta swing for the fences instead and take out Cydney. For the Brains, best to not overthink it and go with Debbie. For Beauty, I don’t want to predict Tai, but it’s hard to see the target moving off of him to Nick or Caleb this soon. Luckily, I don’t think they go to Tribal Council.

John: This week, Alecia burns down the shelter, accidentally stabs Jennifer with a fishing spear, and scores points for another team in a challenge. To punish Alecia, the tribe votes out Cydney. For Beauty, it’s whoever the three women decide. And I’m really just hoping it’s not Tai. So, Caleb. As for Brains, Debbie is Debbie. Though I will throw out this alternate theory: If Aubry ends up siding with the olds, it’s Liz. And if Joe, Debbie, and Aubry are a united front, either Peter or Neal will break ranks to avoid a rock draw. But until I’m shown otherwise, I’ll assume the Brains will do the logical thing and take out Debbie.

Emma: Debbie is a weird older woman. Occam’s razor. Probably wishful thinking, but maybe Caleb reacts to the Tai incident in the previews in a way that turns the girls against him. Cydney because the world is cruel and will not rid me of Alecia.

Mark: I’m sticking with my three this time. Alecia was proven to be a liability, and even if Scot wants to keep her around, I can’t see them booting Cydney over her. At a certain point you have to put challenge strength over personal issues.  Debbie is cuckoo for cocoa puffs, and even a misleading promo can’t hide that. She’s the obvious odd woman out. On the plus side, “Survivor Bootee” can be added to her mile-long resume! On Beauty, the three girls are super tight, and I can still see them working with Tai. At the very least, they’ll flush out an idol and get rid of the one negative Nicky that brings down morale and has been shown in a bad light. (Yes, there is such a thing, pretty boy.)

Matt: Debbie seems obviously first in line at this tribe. But I don’t think they go to tribal and she is saved. I am tempted to pick Cydney as a sort of non-obvious pick, but I’ll go for the easy one this week after nailing the unlikely one last week. Two losses in a row would see the Brawn tribe realize they need to fix it ASAP, and Alecia is the most likely cause of another loss. Because I do not have it in my heart to say Tai, and because I think Caleb is going to be sticking around, I think it is Nick.

Andy John Emma Mark Matt Readers
First
Elimination
Alecia Alecia
Alecia Alecia Darnell  Alecia
Second
Elimination:
Brawn
Cydney Cydney
Cydney Alecia Alecia question-mark
Second
Elimination:
Brains
Debbie
Debbie Debbie Debbie Debbie question-mark
Second
Elimination:
Beauty
Tai  Caleb  Caleb  Nick Nick
 question-mark
Score 0-red 0-red 0-red 0-red 1-green 0-red
Preseason
Winner
Pick
Peter Michele
Jennifer
Michele
Peter Jennifer

So there you have it. Make your picks below and don’t be afraid to give your explanation in the comments. We can be wrong together!

If Brawn goes to Tribal Council next, who will be eliminated?

  • Alecia (77% Votes)
  • Cydney (16% Votes)
  • Jennifer (4% Votes)
  • Jason (1% Votes)
  • Scot (1% Votes)

Total Voters: 73

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If Brains goes to Tribal Council next, who will be eliminated?

  • Debbie (70% Votes)
  • Joe (9% Votes)
  • Liz (9% Votes)
  • Peter (7% Votes)
  • Aubry (3% Votes)
  • Neal (3% Votes)

Total Voters: 70

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If Beauty goes to Tribal Council next, who will be eliminated?

  • Tai (48% Votes)
  • Nick (45% Votes)
  • Caleb (7% Votes)
  • Anna (0% Votes)
  • Julia (0% Votes)
  • Michele (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 69

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Through week 1 poll: Who will win Survivor: Kaoh Rong?

  • Michele (24% Votes)
  • Anna (23% Votes)
  • Neal (13% Votes)
  • Liz (8% Votes)
  • Peter (7% Votes)
  • Julia (6% Votes)
  • Jason (6% Votes)
  • Jennifer (4% Votes)
  • Nick (3% Votes)
  • Aubry (3% Votes)
  • Scot (1% Votes)
  • Caleb (1% Votes)
  • Tai (1% Votes)
  • Joe (0% Votes)
  • Debbie (0% Votes)
  • Cydney (0% Votes)
  • Alecia (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 71

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Medevac Prediction Game

death count survivor kaoh rong

Now on to the important stuff. Every week on the podcast (until it stops being fun), John and I will attempt to figure out how Survivor: Kaoh Rong will live up to its hype as the “Most Brutal Season Ever” by posting scenarios on who could get medevaced and how. It’s up to you to decide who had the better answer.

(If you haven’t listened to the podcast yet, you can correct that injustice by going here).

Who had the better week 1 medevac scenario?

  • Andy: The Happening gets Tai (51% Votes)
  • John: Alecia is rocked out of the game by Jason (49% Votes)

Total Voters: 55

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Andy
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Andy

Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cook Islands, Palau, The Amazon, Cagayan
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Cirie Fields, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino
Andy
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  • Purplerockmatt

    So much red up there, it’s like no one but me knows anything. well i’ll just enjoy my comfortable perch at the top all alone

    • Saturday Night Palsy

      I’m not sure that I’d call Peter and Anna a comfortable perch. Bipartisan maybe, but not comfortable.

    • Kemper Boyd

      Could you win the whole thing with one correct prediction? Possibly.

  • Diego Armando

    I thought up my own medivac idea. The preview shows Debbie juggling, so my theory is that she tries juggling with sea shells. One of those shells contains a crab, which pinches her hand. She screams, loses her balance and falls on her arm, breaking it and forcing her out of the game.

    • Roswulf

      My fantasy medevac involves Debbie drinking unboiled water, on the theory of it probably not being dangerous, and then becoming violently ill.

      Less farce, more irony.

      • Purplerockmatt

        i think debbie will cause a medevac but it won’t be her to go. instead she’ll hurt someone else by accident

      • This is amazing, and I’m disappointed I didn’t think of it first.

      • Saturday Night Palsy

        Didn’t Rudy drink unboiled water his second time around?

        • andythesaint

          I think both times. Sue did in All-Stars as well.

          There’s actually some debate among Survivor veterans about how important it is to boil water in the modern era. Because they don’t actually use actual wells (or animal toilets like they did in Africa). Production creates wells and dumps water into them. So that is already potable water. Now, it’s possible that it degrades once it’s in there, but maybe it’s okay?

          • Roswulf

            Hmm, sounds like something you’d want to test…nah, why bother.

            Probably doesn’t contain cyanide anyways.

          • Assistant Dragon Slayer

            Either way you want to filter the water through three T-shirts.

    • andythesaint

      I like that you went one step past “crab attacks juggler”.

    • We can all that the “Red Lobster’s Revenge”*
      *Yes, I know it wasn’t a lobster. but just go with me here.

    • If they managed to catch all that on camera, it would be amazing.

    • Mike Hirsch

      I like to imagine Neal idly wandering the woods with a walking stick, humming Holiday In Cambodia to himself, and getting really animated as he gets to the “Pol Pot” section, whereupon he swings the walking stick into a hive of bees. The bees attack him as he tries to run away, and he manages to blunder into view of Aubry, who exclaims “Oh my God, it’s My Girl all over again!” before he collapses in a heap and Jeff Probst emerges, dramatically backlit, in a beekeeper outfit, to shoo the bees away and rescue him.

      • sharculese

        John and Andy might have to pick a new game, because I’m pretty sure Mike just won this one.

        • Mike Hirsch

          Full disclosure: midway through writing this, I googled “Are there bees in Cambodia,” just to make sure it was a realistic scenario.

          • itsafuckingSTICK

            All good writers do their research.

  • Diego Armando

    I also realized that Jasle singling out Alecia as Blondie at Tribal Council reminded me of Tyson reciting the names of the people he likes.

    • Not nearly as funny, though. Certainly similar in how dismissive it was of one particular player, though.

      • Diego Armando

        Also Tyson went home in that tribal.

  • EmAndScoutInBK

    I just really enjoy that anyone ever found a reason to reference The Happening.

  • Mike Hirsch

    If Brawn loses…I mean come on. Alecia, right? I know anything can happen, but I can’t see her having much value as a goat at this stage of the game that would make anyone consider dragging her along.
    Brains, I gotta go with Debbie, because she’s the easy choice.
    Beauty, I feel like Tai could find and play his idol all in one episode and send someone, likely Nick, packing.

    • andythesaint

      Your Brawn argument is flawless. Except that it applied equally to the last vote as well.

    • Roswulf

      On Brawn, I think it comes down to whether Jennifer-Cydney is a thing or not- at the moment we just don’t know. I’m pretty sure Scott and Jason are a tight pair and think they own Alecia’s vote. it’s reasonable for them not to not risk a 2/2 showdown with another bonded pair.

      Still, I do think that if Brawn loses again immediately, they’ll go for challenge strength and bounce Alecia. But if Brawn wins a challenge or two to restore their ego, I could totally see the assholes-in-power keeping Alecia as a pawn if they lose in episode 3 or 4.

      • Mike Hirsch

        Yeah, I’d agree with this. The longer Brawn goes without going to tribal again, the more the focus will probably shift to Cydney.

      • Kemper Boyd

        Alecia should be going against Scot and Jason with the women, trying to convince them that Jason already has too much power. I just don’t have faith in her.

        • andythesaint

          The issue: the women hate her more than the guys who won’t call her by name.

          • Kemper Boyd

            Yeah and I’m sure that is her own fault. As I say I have no belief in her ability to make something like that happen.

  • corndogshuffle

    If Alecia’s ineptitude wasn’t enough for Brawn to get rid of her before… yikes. She could be around a while if they don’t go to both (or even one) of the next two tribal councils. Although if Alecia ended up being the subject of the bullying Jeff has referenced (is there another obvious choice for that yet?), a John Cochran in South Pacific style flip would be fun to watch.

    • Diego Armando

      This season has bullying? This season has it all (and by all, I mean all of the stuff that ruins a season).

      • corndogshuffle

        Unfortunately yes. Jeff said something in an interview about how parts of this season deal with bullying. Not excited to see that, but if whoever the victim is gets a little revenge at least that will win a few of the lost points back.

        I still feel like this season has potential to be solid and in the mid tier (not expecting a top ten season based on what I’ve heard), but it will go downhill quickly if the bullying or death/despair isn’t counteracted by an otherwise fun cast or good game play.

    • bder19

      I would think that Aubry could be a target for bullying after a tribe swap, or possibly Tai due to the high bro concentration in this cast. However, I’d think Tai would shrug that off, and the only other candidate left is Debbie, who should be gone in short order

  • Saturday Night Palsy

    I predict that this next episode will be eggceptional!

    • Purplerockmatt

      eggscellent

    • Hornacek

      Eggs have gotten a bad rap lately.

  • Kemper Boyd

    Wait: Are we now calling Emma by her IRL name? I don’t like this very small change.

    • I think it’s just that Andy does a copy/paste from our staff chat.

      • Kemper Boyd

        Ok, I feel mollified. I was really scared for a moment.

  • Kemper Boyd

    If Brawn get rid of Cydney would it be the beginning of an intentional Matsing? The intentional Matsing is a fascinating strategy, the concept that if you can be forged in the fire of early tribal council appearances you are better suited to lasting into the game. So far Denise, Malcolm, Kass, Tasha and Spencer seem to show it can work. Opinions?

    • itsafuckingSTICK

      I’m pretty sure that approximately zero of the castaways you mentioned intentionally went to as many Tribals as they did. I do agree that they were probably better fortified because of it, but not that it was on purpose.

      • Kemper Boyd

        No I know they didn’t do it intentionally but they go to those tribals and they all survived deep into the game, which is why the concept of doing it intentionally is so interesting.

        • Yeah, and it’s something Fishbach has brought up as a potential strategy. Partly because it denies other groups the opportunity to get rid of people that they’d really like to vote out, so by the time you merge with them they’re itching to dump someone. It’s still risky as hell, though.

          • Kemper Boyd

            Josh Wiggler talks about it too in the Evolution of Strategy.

          • It’s an interesting theory, at least. I’d love to see someone try it out. But if they try and it fails, the show would definitely show them failing. If they succeeded, the show would likely edit out any reference to them intentionally throwing early challenges.

          • Assistant Dragon Slayer

            If Intentional Matsings actually become a regular thing, it has the potential to ruin the three-tribe game similar to the way Day One five-person alliances ruined the two-tribe game. I doubt it it will happen, since its such a risky strategy, but if I were production, and I suspected an Intentional Matsing, I’d let the tribe go the full Ulong.

          • andythesaint

            I think that’s exactly what production would do if the players made it seem intentional. Which you’d have to assume a newbie alliance would do in order to get credit for it (returnees might be a little cagier knowing the power wielded by production).

          • Assistant Dragon Slayer

            Actually, now that I think about it, the easiest way to head off the Intentional Matsing as an option would be to stop automatically reshuffling at 14. Once in a while they should reshuffle into three tribes at 15, or wait until 12, or just go straight to the merge.

          • Kemper Boyd

            I suppose it’s something you consider at the point where you’d tried and lost the first 2 immunities and then if you are in a strong 2/3 you say “fuck it, let’s just do it this way. In reality I doubt anyone will do it because the best way to stay safe is to win immunities, so why risk it?

    • andythesaint

      I do think that it’s probably for the best for a tribe to at least clear out some dead wood before they need to fend off attackers.

      But on the other hand, Brawn didn’t go to TC in Cagayan and the final two was Tony and Woo. So I’m not sure if the Kass/Tasha/Spencer data is as strong as is being posited.

      • Kemper Boyd

        To be fair I don’t think there is nearly enough data to really suggest an Intentional Matsing is a good idea but it’s just such a compelling idea from a viewing perspective.
        It does seem that often tribes who don’t ever get the opportunity to cut dead weight pre-merge and then collapse under the conflicting ideas of personalities within the “alliance”.

        • andythesaint

          I think the answer is that you don’t need to implode, but you should maybe think about losing a challenge, unless you can build a really solid six. It’s like with Bayon 2.0 last season, they didn’t exactly throw the challenge to get rid of Monica, but they weren’t exactly unhappy to be given the opportunity either.

          • Kemper Boyd

            They managed to lose a few Bayon’s early after the merge that was helpful to the Bayon alliance that made the end too.