Since we never seem to properly track these things, and we have a website, I’ve decided to make a weekly post tracking our predictions and who’s ahead in the score: me or John. More interestingly, we’re giving you all a chance to play along. Each week, we’ll post a poll to see who our listeners is going home in that week’s episode (no spoilers!). At the end of the season, we’ll see who was best at this.
John tied you all up in his saddest prediction to date. There’s a good chance that I’ll never catch up now, bu hey, at least I got one right! I’m not sure even Dan’s been wrong more often than I have this season. Womp, womp.
The big prediction I’ve made is that Mike is going to win the season. On the podcast, I posited a way he could use Dan’s extra vote advantage and Sierra this week to force someone in the main 4 to flip to avoid a tie. It’s since been pointed out to me that this probably wouldn’t work, since a 4-4 tie would result in a revote where Dan’s extra vote is probably no longer valid (and would definitely not be valid were Dan to be one of the people involved in the tie). So I’ve decided to put together a few other scenarios for Mike:
Mike wins immunity or plays his idol and hopes the cards fall right for him in the next vote.
Pro for Mike: An entire episode of the Axis of Evil turning on themselves, knowing that Mike’s not going anywhere. He’d do well to remind them that either they decide who’s going home next or he will. Even better is if he wins immunity, because then he can remind them that they’re going to have to get rid of two of them before he’s going anywhere.
Con for Mike: He’s still against the entire majority and could be out an idol. Carolyn’s idol is still lurking. Dan would be the most likely target of the other side, and his elimination doesn’t help Mike at all (other than it’s not him).
Rodney’s goal in forming the core four alliance was to 1) snatch control of the alliance from Mike and 2) vote Mike out. Remarkably, he’s already manage to do #1 with Dan and Sierra included. Since he can’t do #2 (ha!) right now with Mike’s immunity idol in the way, why sacrifice Dan or Sierra to keep Tyler and Carolyn? He no longer needs them and they’re a bigger threat than Dan and Sierra. So, the Blue Collars reunite to eliminate Tyler, with Rodney pretending with Tyler and Carolyn that the target is Dan. Tyler is eliminated 4-3.
Pro for Mike: Might not even need to win immunity/play his idol. Gets rid of immunity challenge competition. Dan’s second vote is still alive to possibly help Mike next time.
Con for Mike: Mike’s still Rodney’s main target and he hasn’t won back Dan or Sierra. May need to play his idol anyway just to be safe. Carolyn’s idol is still lurking and she now knows she needs to play it.
Possible, but Complicated
The other side wants to A) eliminate Dan and B) ensure Mike plays his idol (or eliminate him if he doesn’t). So they set up a vote split with 3 votes going on Mike and 2 votes on Dan. The complicated part is that Tyler and Carolyn know that Dan has an extra vote, and if he plays it, then they lose the split. So, they need to convince Dan that the split is actually between Mike and Sierra and get Dan to vote for Mike while telling Dan that they’re telling Sierra that the split is between Mike and Rodney, but Sierra is voting Mike. Eventually, this whole thing falls apart, and Mike plays his idol to protect himself and Mike and both of Dan’s votes take out Tyler.
Pro for Mike: Tyler’s gone, Dan’s an ally.
Con for Mike: He now needs to win out without the benefit of the hidden idol or Dan’s extra vote. Carolyn’s idol is still lurking.
Mike wins immunity. He’s been slowly winning Dan over throughout the episode, with Dan’s place as seventh looking more and more likely. In an attempt to take control of the game and possibly set himself up for the next two votes rather than just one at a time, Mike plays his other idol for Dan at Tribal Council, cancelling out the other five votes. In a panic, Carolyn plays her idol for Tyler, cancelling out Mike and Dan’s votes (Dan does not play his extra vote since 5-3 is no better than 5-2. Mike has to explain this to him very slowly). No votes count! We don’t know what happens in such a scenario, but lets imagine there’s a revote where Mike, Dan, and Tyler are all immune (but can still vote, since this isn’t a tiebreaker). Now Sierra and Rodney flip to save themselves, and Carolyn goes home after using her idol to protect Tyler.
Pro for Mike: Has now bought Dan’s loyalty (and preserved his extra vote) and should be able to keep Sierra now that a majority is possible at six (their three votes plus Dan’s extra vote). Tyler/Rodney/Will are completely fractured. Carolyn’s idol is gone as is a challenge threat. Mike now has an alliance that could protect him even if he loses an immunity challenge next week.
Con for Mike: No more hidden idol (unless he finds the re-hidden idol). Dan’t loyalty may be temporary.
What do you think? Any more scenarios that Mike could play out besides “be immune”?
Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.
Favourite seasons: Heroes vs Villains, Cagayan, Cook Islands, Palau, Winners at War
Favourite players: Boston Rob, Kim Spradlin, Tony Vlachos, Sandra Diaz-Twine, Yul Kwon, Rob Cesternino