Survivor Analyst Russian Roulette: Aubry Bracco

Time for the next edition Survivor Analyst Russian Roulette, where the authors of this site are randomly assigned contestants from the upcoming season of Survivor: Game Changers and must give an honest assessment of what to expect from them. Next up: Aubry Bracco.

Editor’s note: Since six entries didn’t feel like enough for this series, we invited some more regular contributors to the site and put them through the randomizer. Even though she’s insanely busy saving the world via the law, we asked EmAndScoutinBK if she had time to write something anyway.

Aubry, newest Survivor Queen! Puzzlemaster! Awkward Dancer Extraordinaire! Coleslaw Enthusiast! I was pretty excited when I drew Aubry in roulette, but then came the dawning realization that I was going to feel a lot of pressure while writing up an entry for the latest “robbed g.oddess.” Nonetheless, I’m beyond thrilled that I get to talk about fellow New England nerd, Aubry. She is probably the most popular player to come off of Kaoh Rong, except for OWM, whose win makes Matt’s blood pressure rise automatically.

Aubry surprised people last time she was out on the island. After having an anxiety attack early on- during which Water Felon Debbie soothed her (more on that later)- she bounced back and never really showed that aspect of herself again. She proved time and time again her value in team challenges. Her two biggest obstacles were at the swap and at the merge. At the swap, she struggled with indecision in the voting booth, crossing out Julia’s name and voting out her old tribemate Peter, which served only to anger everyone. At the merge, she was down in the numbers. Even worse, her number one ally (Neal) was medically evacuated because the beach was trying to kill them all, and he didn’t give her his idol.

But, her social game came out in a big way later on when she convinced Tai to flip on his bro alliance, shifting the landscape for the rest of the season. Tai’s loyalty to her was so deep that he forced a fire-making challenge at the final four, even though he thought it was to his disadvantage to keep her in the game. She won that fire-making challenge, which puts her in an elite group of fire-making challenge winners who couldn’t seal the deal in the finals with “Emotional Spitfire” Becky Lee, “Yeah, Baby!” Carolyn Rivera, and “Captain of Sports” Danielle DiLorenzo.

Throughout the post-merge of Kaoh Rong, Aubry persevered – she was on the right side of every vote, kept Joe’s loyalty, and made it all the way to the final three. But… we all know how that turned out. The jury didn’t love her the way the audience did. She only managed to gain two out of seven votes, though she suffered from Neal’s ejection from the jury.

Hey Aubry, what do think about the jury’s decision?

Here’s the thing about Aubry – she’s a great narrator. The audience loves her. She forges great relationships. She instilled a relationship with Joe so trusting that people considered him basically to be an extra appendage to her. The major issue? She suffers from the “Dawn effect”. Her relationships were solid – so solid that people felt betrayed when she voted them out, Former Model (and Current Hypocrite) Debbie in particular.

But for Game Changers, let’s start with the obvious – there are four people playing from Kaoh Rong. It is great for Aubry that Tai is playing. To say that it is not so great that Former Caretaker of Nuns Debbie is playing is a large understatement. Caleb’s relationship to Aubry appears to be a non-factor at first, but remember – Tai and Caleb were apparently super close on the Beauty tribe. If Aubry and Tai maintain their relationship, and Caleb and Tai do the same, she has a built-in third ally.

And that’s where Water Felon Debbie comes in – Debbie is a perfect example of what went wrong for Aubry last time. Aubry blindsided Debbie, and even though Debbie didn’t seem to have a close relationship with Michele, she appeared to vote against Aubry rather than for Michele at final tribal council. Debbie still appears to be holding on to those feelings about Aubry, if she’s being honest in interviews. Of course, having four people from Kaoh Rong, the largest from any prior season, playing together might put a target on her back anyway, but if Cambodia is any indication (and it probably isn’t), it doesn’t matter what your relationship to one another is – numbers are dominance.

Best Case Scenario

Aubry’s challenge prowess makes her an asset in the pre-merge worth keeping around, and she knows how to keep a low profile. She bonds with her tribemates over various side dishes on rewards, and this time, she learns how to prevent the backlash from voting out her allies. She takes credit for her moves and makes sure that the jury “sees her game” this time around.

It shouldn’t be too hard for us, the audience, to imagine her winning – she’s so damn likable. All she has to do is get the people on the island to see her the same way. Aubry makes sure that she sits next to two people who specifically don’t have her social game, and she coasts to the victory that most people wish she’d taken in the first place.

Worst Case Scenario

Two words: too soon. Losing in the finals isn’t easy to recover from, and let’s face it – her loss was probably particularly hard after the fact. She hasn’t had time to heal. On top of it, she came off of Kaoh Rong with the biggest target on her back out of the four– she was regarded as probably the most strategic, certainly out of those on that season, and many considered her deserving of a win.

The worst case scenario is something along the lines of the men teaming up to be meat shields for each other and pulling in Sandra because she’s already targeting Aubry. Throw in a little mix of her tribe deciding to play the post-merge game in the pre-merge, and Aubry could be the first to leave the game.

Most likely scenario

There are bigger threats out there than Aubry, and those will likely be the people that are taken out first. Aubry, with her puzzle-knowledge and active listening, is likable AND an asset in the pre-merge. Assuming her tribe doesn’t lose every challenge, she’s probably safe until the merge, at which point someone will eventually realize how dangerous she is. She’ll probably get booted, heartbreakingly for us all, a few episodes after the merge.

Read the rest!

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