Survivor David vs Goliath Week Four Predictions

We’re really gonna scrap the entire David vs Goliath premise before any challenge with a sling/slingshot/whatever? YOU MOTHERFUCKERS!!!

Staff Predictions


The correct answer to this question is “member of the minority on a swapped tribe least likely to play an idol”. But that isn’t how these predictions thing works. So instead, without knowing how the tribes break down (because I don’t watch in week previews), I’ll go with the person with the highest odds of landing in a bad situation: Gabby. Out of 17 people, she has 13 of them who would either REALLY like to vote her out or at least wouldn’t mind it. Carl, Davie, and Bi were out for blood last week. Nick wanted her out of the picture. The 9 remaining Goliaths would go along with those four, and might just target someone like her for causing them to lose the challenge that sends them to tribal council (even if it isn’t strictly true, it probably wouldn’t be UNtrue either – y’all gotta stop getting up in arms when people who are most likely are bad at physical challenges get called out as such even if the blame can be shared with someone else. Seriously, you were trying to defend Natalie’s challenge prowess last week. Stahp).

In my mind, Gabby needs two of her three allies (Christian, Lyrsa, Elizabeth) to wind up on her new tribe or she’s in real danger. Or, just be on a tribe that doesn’t finish last in the immunity challenge. That would do it too.


I’m only looking at Davids for this week’s boot since a Goliath minority is the least likely outcome for a generic tribe of 8. From those Davids, I’d narrow it down to three people: Bi, Davie, and Gabby. Bi could be gone for obvious reasons. But recent seasons tell us that the first boot after a swap usually isn’t the obvious one. It could be Davie because he might get spooked and try to get cute with his idol (or potential fake idols), which will bite him in the ass. Also, he’s sprinting through the jungle after/with Elizabeth in the preview, and what’s that about? It might also be Gabby because I can see Bi trying to sell her vote to the Goliaths to exact the revenge she’s seeking against Gabby.

If the latter scenario happens, I (as the Goliaths) would let Bi splinter from the Davids, then vote Bi out in a plurality vote. Best of both (throth? What’s the word for three things?) worlds in getting rid of the challenge liability while gaining a majority while avoiding an idol. But also, said it was Bi, so Bi it is.


Predicting swap boots is usually a crap shoot unless we know the tribes (and I do not). But the foreshadowing of Bi’s injury makes her an easy choice. See you all in a couple weeks!


Without having any idea of the tribal breakdown after the swap, my only guess based on the stories we’ve seen so far is that Bi‘s knee makes her expendable for one of the tribes. Alas, nothing quite as creative as last week’s Dan blindside scheme. But maybe this one at least has a shot at happening.


Since we mostly don’t know how the swap shakes things up, I’m going to repeat with Bi. Same reasons as last week—I don’t think she’s super aware of how she comes off—but also because of the knee injury.


I predicted Bi on the show because I think her knee will spell doom (DOOM!) for her tribe and then for her. She can shrug off a mcl injury all she wants, but she just won’t be able to keep up with the injury and will be sent home.

Editor’s note: remember when they took the time to point out Tyson’s shoulder injury and then he was voted out the following week?

Andy Brad Emma John
Mark Matt
2nd Boot Lyrsa Carl Nick Nick Nick Jessica Nick
3rd Boot Natalie Natalie Natalie Dan Natalie Kara Natalie
4th Boot Gabby Bi Bi Bi Bi Bi

Your Turn

Time to vote again.

Who wil be the 4th boot in the season baffling titled David vs Goliath?

  • Bi (47% Votes)
  • Natalia (20% Votes)
  • Gabby (8% Votes)
  • Lyrsa (6% Votes)
  • Alec (3% Votes)
  • Angela (3% Votes)
  • Carl (3% Votes)
  • Natalie (3% Votes)
  • Kara (3% Votes)
  • Alison (2% Votes)
  • Elizabeth (2% Votes)
  • Davie (2% Votes)
  • John (0% Votes)
  • Mike White (0% Votes)
  • Dan (0% Votes)
  • Christian (0% Votes)
  • Nick (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 66

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