Survivor Island of the Idols Week 5 Predictions

Time to continue our hot streak of knowing things. Since it’s been too easy so far, it’s time for an extra challenge of not knowing who will be voting for who.

Staff Predictions


For analysis reasons, there seemed to be a lot of discomfort caused last week by Missy’s insistence to make a Big Move and to trash Karishma at tribal. And Elaine talked about possible swap-related consequence of those actions. This spells bad things for Missy… if I had any ability to predict future outcomes or this season were predictable. But since it isn’t, and swaps often aren’t, I’ll just predict Janet and hope to keep my perfect record going.


Since we’re picking one person this week, let’s go with Dan. He’s not well connected, he gives some people a bad vibe, and I think some people on Vokai have been putting up with him as opposed to wanting to keep him around long time. Especially if there’s a chance he’s swapped to the minority where old Lairo members have a heightened incentive to vote him out, Dan is at more risk this week than he has been before.


As I sit at the airport, wondering how to predict a swap boot when I don’t know the tribe configurations, all I can think of to say is Missy. She’s damaged the relationships of about everyone in her original tribe besides Aaron, and it’s not unreasonable that Vokai people would see her as a threat.


Admittedly, I’ve never received personal coaching on how to play Survivor from two people that had giant wooden busts made in honor of their Survivor greatness. And yet I feel fairly confident in saying that if you want someone to be a loyal vote in your pocket, it probably isn’t the greatest idea to publicly shit all over that person in the middle of a tribal council. With no idea how the tribes break down this coming week, I’m going to guess that Karishma and Missy end up together, and Missy will regret trying to keep Karishma around after Karishma flips on her. 


Missy’s increased visibility last week means one of two things: she’s a badass winner option or she’s gone soon. Considering how poorly Elaine will react after this vote, and the shaky trust three of her old tribe mates has, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Lairo’s corral a revenge vote with their new purple pals post swap. See ya Missy. Play stronger later next time.


Okay, in most swaps you might as well just throw a dart for the amount you can predict what will happen. That seems even more the case this season where both tribes seem to be thriving on unpredictable boots. And yet I am going to try and apply logic and analysis. More fool am I. Anyway my prediction relies on one a few pieces of data. 1) former Lairo is down numbers, 2) it will be a three tribe swap because I predicted this weeks ago on the pod, and 3) I think the events of the last episode will matter.

So based on the above if you split 7 three ways Lairo will likely only have one tribe where it has a majority and even there it might not. If they only have one tribe with a majority they might not be willing to throw a challenge because they have a small buffer, or because I think Lairo people might not want to throw it.

So because of all this I think friction on Lairo will matter for the post-swap and while everybody has friction with Karishma, I am not predicting Karishma. I’m predicting Missy. And the reason why is we were shown Elaine being suspicious of her last episode and I think Elaine is one of the voices of the season and I think that was setting up Elaine and Missy being at loggerheads and Missy being the loser. Of course now that I applied my impeccable logic I bet they just turn around and vote out Jack for some reason.

Andy Brad Emma John
Mark Matt
2nd Boot Noura Tommy Noura Dan Noura Kellee Noura
3rd Boot Karishma Karishma Aaron Aaron Aaron Aaron Aaron
4th Boot Karishma Karishma Karishma Tom Dean Karishma Karishma
5th Boot Janet Dan Missy Missy Missy Missy

Your Turn

Time to vote for the next person to go

Who won't survive the swap?

  • Missy (26% Votes)
  • Karishma (19% Votes)
  • Noura (13% Votes)
  • Tom (11% Votes)
  • Dean (6% Votes)
  • Jamal (6% Votes)
  • Dan (5% Votes)
  • Elizabeth (3% Votes)
  • Lauren (3% Votes)
  • Aaron (2% Votes)
  • Elaine (2% Votes)
  • Jack (2% Votes)
  • Janet (2% Votes)
  • Jason (0% Votes)
  • Kellee (0% Votes)
  • Tommy (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 62

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