Survivor Island of the Idols Week 8 Predictions

It’s time for the merge, where we go from predicting one person within a group of seven to one (and this week two!) within a group of 13. It’s almost too easy.

Note: Because this week’s episode is two hours long, we’re assuming there will be two boots. Which we will predict in order. Almost too easy.

Staff Predictions


After a bunch of hyper active plans and frantic planning and alliances within alliance, the big mass of people will… pretty much unanimously decide to get rid of Dean. Dude has one ally, who is smart enough to not stick her neck out for him (again), and fits the profile enough of being a “threat” you target now.

That’ll give original Vokai a 7-5 advantage over original Lairo (8-4 if you count the almost certainly flipped Karishma), which should be enough of a buffer to get them to eat one of their own and go after Jamal, who might have fewer allies than Dean did.


First Boot: Old Vokai has the numbers, and the merge playbook after a swap is typically as follows: vote along original tribe lines to stabilize numbers (the real action begins the week after); blow smoke towards the biggest threat in the minority; actually cast votes on the second or third target to dodge an idol play. Because of this, I don’t think Aaron is being targeted first. Instead, Missy will go home.

Second Boot: Based on the ways that he has been featured, Dan is headed for a disastrous end. Dan could potentially be herded to FTC, wherein every single juror just REAMS him for being a gropey creep. More likely, Old Vokai realizes that they can spare a vote and boot Dan so that they don’t have to deal with him anymore.

Bonus Prediction: This week, we are assuming that there are two boots. Unless…We get 90 minutes of merge gameplay goodness, and a 30 minute Tribal where Survivor meets the #MeToo movement and Dan is the only boot this week. Extremely unlikely, but seriously, Dan is going to get what’s coming to him sooner or later.


For the first vote out, I fear that the time has come for our friend Elaine. Every time she’s with a new group, people are both charmed by her and terrified by that charm. Now that it’s the merge, she’s more of a danger than she’s ever been before and she recently “pulled off” a “big move.” (Scare quotes solely due to how difficult it would have been to fuck that advantage up.) Even the Lairo people she’s been with don’t seem inclined to stick with her, so I could see her being the consensus-style merge boot we tend to see with these larger merges.

As for the second vote, well it’s definitely not easy to predict the second boot after a merge, considering we have no idea what the dynamics will actually be. But I’ll say it won’t be a straight Pagonging and this time a former Vokai heads to Ponderosa. Let’s go with Jamal.


I got a little too close for comfort last week by suggesting that Jamal would be a safe pick to not go home. So I should probably just go back to failing accidentally rather than on purpose.

Aaron seems like exactly the person everyone thinks of as a merge boot (though as we’ve covered in the past, that’s not really a thing). But this crowd seems to overthink itself every week, so my theory is that they go so deep into crazy plans that they end up on the most basic plan of all: vote out Aaron.

After Aaron is gone, it’s time to get rid of Dan. Some handsy shit is gonna go down, and people are gonna finally put a stop to it- by sending him to a place where he can eat whatever he wants before he collects his prize money. Actions have consequences.


I know none of us have gotten this right yet, but I’m going to try. Usually, at the merge, there’s an endurance or balancing challenge, and women have better odds. So let’s say a woman (Missy?) wins and rallies the girls to get out a guy. With so many competing factions, why not get out the one they all think is annoying? Dan is an easy vote here. But then the Vokai faction reunites and want to take out a Lairo threat. Aaron will try and flip, but be seen as a snake, and the ghost of Jason will emerge victorious as Aaron is voted out. Thus, the dreams of a female-dominating season continue.


We are promised a chaotic merge so in an attempt to break the streak (ha!) I’m using my powers of deduction, those have never failed before. First boot post-merge will be Aaron, not only does he fit a traditional merge boot profile of young athletic male, but he has also alienated Lauren and Tommy with his ‘betrayal’ two votes ago. Then after Aaron is where I think it gets interesting. Maybe you think they’ll Pagong the tribe and vote out an Aaron ally? On this season? Nah. I’m predicting Jamal. Tribal last week brought up the possibility of a women’s alliance, and while there isn’t an explicit women’s alliance, Jamal’s fear of one, and his voicing that fear will be remembered, and I think some people on his side will look to take him out.

Andy Brad Emma John
Mark Matt
2nd Boot Noura Tommy Noura Dan Noura Kellee Noura
3rd Boot Karishma Karishma Aaron Aaron Aaron Aaron Aaron
4th Boot Karishma Karishma Karishma Tom Dean Karishma Karishma
5th Boot Janet Dan Missy Missy Missy Missy Missy
6th Boot  Missy Elaine Elaine Missy Dan Aaron Missy
7th Boot Noura Karishma Noura Jamal Noura Noura Noura
8th Boot Dean Missy Elaine Aaron Dan Aaron
9th Boot Jamal Dan Jamal Dan Aaron Jamal

Your Turn

Time to vote for the next person to go

Who will be the 8th boot?

  • Dan (22% Votes)
  • Aaron (21% Votes)
  • Elizabeth (14% Votes)
  • Dean (13% Votes)
  • Kellee (8% Votes)
  • Tommy (6% Votes)
  • Missy (5% Votes)
  • Elaine (4% Votes)
  • Jamal (4% Votes)
  • Noura (3% Votes)
  • Karishma (1% Votes)
  • Janet (0% Votes)
  • Lauren (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 78

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Who will be the 9th boot?

  • Dan (32% Votes)
  • Jamal (24% Votes)
  • Aaron (11% Votes)
  • Missy (9% Votes)
  • Tommy (8% Votes)
  • Dean (5% Votes)
  • Elaine (4% Votes)
  • Noura (4% Votes)
  • Elizabeth (1% Votes)
  • Karishma (1% Votes)
  • Lauren (1% Votes)
  • Janet (0% Votes)
  • Kellee (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 76

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