We got through the swap with a fairly predictable (i.e., three of you got it right) boot. Now we get three shots at being right. Participation trophies for everyone!

Andy: I think there’s a good argument to be made that Taylor is getting a Drewchebag-esque downfall edit. But I’ve been picking Figgy to go since the second episode, so I’d feel stupid if I get that wrong now by moving off of her. Rather be wrong the other way.

If they don’t lose, I’d say Vanua is the next likely to do so, since they have David and the other tribes don’t. And while I think she’s got the potential to be an elite-level social player, I don’t think Michelle has any outs here. If given six days, maybe. But if it’s just these three, she’s the screwed-by-the-swap player of the season.

Finally, I don’t think Ikabula will finish third in a competition, particularly since they should be able to sit their two worst competitors for the immunity challenge. But if they do, Bret or Sunday are screwed. I think the Millennials take out a threat rather than trying to keep the tribe strong, because they’re strong enough as it is. So they go for Bret (who isn’t a threat, per se, but is more likely to aid someone who is, like Chris).

John: The green tribe won’t lose, because they are the Survivor equivalent of the NBA’s juggernaut Warriors. But if they do lose, the way the Warriors blew a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals, Hannah will go home. A loss by Glorious Man-Unicorn Ken’s tribe would give Adam, Ken, and Jessica their choice of Taylor or Figgy to eliminate. Figgy is the easy choice, but I’ll roll the dice and say they boot Taylor. If David’s loser tribe loses again, David ends up playing his idol for himself needlessly and the vote goes 3-1 against Michelle. This ultra-specific prediction is almost guaranteed to be wrong.

Matt: John already heard my predictions so if he deviates you know it is because he is worried we have caught on to his plagiarism. If Vanua (orange) goes to tribal then I think Michelle will go home. I think she is the person left with the weakest allies on that tribe and the alternate target is David who has an idol and would play it. If Takali (purple) goes to tribal then it will be one of Taylor or Figgy, and while I think there is a legitimate chance it is Taylor, I will take the safer route and say it is Figgy. Finally I do not think Ikabula (green) will lose someone in a tribal council but I could see a medevac coming especially since we have a blindfold challenge. If that happens I think Hannah gets medevaced.

Mark: Takali: With the knowledge of the Legacy Advantage passed on, Ken has no reason to keep Jessica, but every reason to keep challenge strength on their side. Look for him to convince Adam that the weak link has to go so he can become the Gen X God we always knew he was.

Ikabula: Doubt the largest tribe is going anywhere, but I’ve been very, very wrong all season. Let’s say Hannah doesn’t die during her medical scare teased in the preview, but instead asks everyone to talk about it for the next 24 hours. The tribe gets fed up, Michaela’s eyes roll back 50 times, and Hannah is let go for sanity’s sake.

Vanua: Neither Chris nor David would willingly sacrifice their Gen X numbers, and Chris has strong ties to Zeke. I’m going to guess Michelle gets the Obvious Loser edit and drew the swap screwed spot this season. So much for being the power player.

Emma: Orange: It’s hard to see where Michelle doesn’t go home if this team loses again. Chris and Zeke having a partnership seems to make them safe, and Zeke doesn’t really care about Michelle. If they do target David, he has an idol. Sure, he could go home with it in his pocket, but that doesn’t seem like the story the show is telling. Maybe David decides to target Chris or something with the idol, but he did go along with the Cece vote, so I don’t know about that.

Green: The four millennials don’t have beef with each other, so probably Sunday or Brett. Most likely Sunday. I’m not too worried about this one though because I don’t think they’re going to tribal any time soon.

Purple: I keep going back and forth between Figgy and Taylor. It has to be one of them, right? (Please let it be one of them). Conventional Survivor wisdom says that Figgy, being both the girl and also the one with a touch more strategic acumen, should be the target. However, while in the past I’ve said that Taylor is so dumb that anyone could mold him into whatever they need for their alliance, now I wonder if he’s so into Figgy that he would go “free agent” a la Ozzy (temporarily) after losing his beloved. The question is whether Adam/Ken/Jessica see that as a possibility. I feel like Hannah now, I just can’t decide. Then again, Figgy is half-Puerto Rican and judging by how this season has been going… Figgy it is. I’m going to be so annoyed if I’m wrong.

	Andy	John	Matt	Mark	Emma	Readers
First Boot	Jessica	CeCe	CeCe	Jessica	Rachel	Sunday
Second Boot	Figgy	Figgy	Figgy	Figgy	Figgy	Figgy
Third Boot	Lucy	Paul	Paul	Bret	Paul	Paul
Fourth Boot	Lucy	Lucy	Lucy	Lucy	CeCe	Lucy
Fifth Boot	Figgy	CeCe	CeCe	Jessica	Taylor	CeCe
Ikabula Sixth Out	Bret	Hannah	Hannah	Hannah	Sunday
Takali Sixth Out	Figgy	Taylor	Figgy	Jessica	Figgy
Vanua Sixth Out	Michelle	Michelle	Michelle	Michelle	Michelle
Score
Preseason Winner Pick	Taylor	Adam	Ken	Taylor	Zeke	Mari

Make your picks below and don’t be afraid to give your explanation in the comments.