Survivor Analyst Russian Roulette: Sierra Dawn Thomas

We now conclude Survivor Analyst Russian Roulette, where the authors of this site were randomly assigned contestants from the upcoming season of Survivor: Game Changers and had to give an honest assessment of what to expect from them. We finish- as we must- with Game Changing Fan Favorite Sierra Dawn Thomas.

Wow, I cannot believe Survivor was lucky enough to get GCFFSDT back on the show. Remember when she voted out her mom?!? That was amazing! Who could believe that? Probst wouldn’t stop talking about it! Or how about when she arranged for that 3-2-1 vote? Unbelievably cunning! Or when SDT won? TWICE?!? What about Cops R Us? That was pretty cool. What about all the different chyrons the show used for her? Man I loved that joke!

Remember when she should have won Kaoh Rong? Or when she was beasting challenges in Millennials vs Gen X? Or when she sat on the idol to prevent Malcolm from getting it? Or when she was all excited about ‘Merica? What about when she had that showdown with David in Millennials vs Gen X?  Remember when she said, “Hold up, bro?” I loved that! Remember when she teamed up with Fishbach and bossed Tocantins? What about when her high-wire act led to one of the most exciting wins ever in Cagayan? Or when she told people to burn the idol clues? Pretty clever! Or her whirlwind of activity in the first four episodes of Cambodia? What about all those challenges she won in Cook Islands? Or how she almost died during a challenge? Or when Sia gave her money for saving a chicken? Or when she was present and ineffectual in the face of Kim’s overwhelming awesomeness?

Remember GCFFSDT? Of course you do! I am just glad Survivor remembered her to bring her back. Thank god she possessed that most necessary ingredient in returning contestants: availability.

Best-case scenario

Now that I got that out of me, let’s get serious for a second. Some people would have you believe that Sierra can win. She cannot. And here’s why: Because she could not win Worlds Apart.

I know what you’re thinking: “She totally could have won Worlds Apart if not for Mike!” Except that is not even remotely true. Remember, the first person her Blue Collar alliance turned on was her. Not Dan, not Rodney, not even Will or Carolyn (who weren’t originally in Blue Collar), but Sierra.

Sure, she might have been better at challenges than Dan, Will, and Rodney. Almost everyone was. But she didn’t demonstrate any appreciable difference in challenge skill between her and Carolyn. And more than that, do we really believe that even if she gets to the end (which, remember, would require an immunity run once all her allies turned on her because she was at the bottom), do we really know that she was actually liked and respected?

So what is her best case? Another invisible exit at 6. She isn’t good enough at challenges to go on a run, and she didn’t prove to have enough of a social game to get herself off the bottom of her own alliance of awful people.

Ron Howard narrator: “They were not”.

Worst-case scenario

She goes home first. She had no time to pre-game, she has no alliances, and she is the new face on the island. The same thing happened with Candice in Blood vs Water, a last-minute replacement on that season. It makes for an easy consensus first vote, and honestly I think it is rather likely once people realize that tall does not necessarily equal athletic.

Can’t teach height, though.

Most likely scenario

She lasts until she is no longer useful. If she winds up in a minority alliance early, I can see her going home super early (like I said, maybe first). But more likely, she is an anonymous pre-merge boot. She’ll get on the wrong side of numbers, but the majority alliance will be scared to go at their real target.

Literally changing the game.

Read the rest!

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