Survivor Island of the Idols Week 3 Predictions

Just like we all anticipated, Molly was voted out last week. Let’s see if the season continues to be predictable.

Staff Predictions


I’m still not sure that the Lairo women’s alliance is a long-term project or if it was a practical matter of not surrendering immediate control. I know we’re all invested in the former, but I’m going to base my prediction on the latter and say they vote out Karishma, perhaps in part because she seemed at least somewhat aligned with Ronnie/Aaron in the premiere. But good new, I’m awful at this so this should help the women’s alliance stay the course.

I’m going to stay bold and say Lauren, fresh off her recent big move, will leave herself open for another one. Either because she’ll start acting like the “cool kid”, angering the seemingly-easily annoyed Noura and allowing she and Jason to flip again to Jamal, Jack, and Tommy, or I dunno, maybe an idol or something.


Orange Tribe: I’m rolling over my prediction from last week and noting that I don’t think there’s enough evidence in the previews to draw new conclusions. Karishma.

Purple Tribe: Once again, I will note that in my prediction last week, I got everything right except for the name of the boot. I deserve like, a half point at least. Anyways, in the case that Purple is losing two challenges in a row, I think they will prioritize keeping challenge assets over quashing the “cool kids,” which means the votes will fall on Noura.


Lairo: The closer we get to a swap, the less reason there is to keep Aaron around. So far Vince and Tom still seem to be on good terms with the women, and Dean continues not to exist, so that’s really the only option is the women’s alliance we all hope for continues.

Vokai: Turns out not voting her off didn’t make Noura calm down, and this tribe feels a little more “challenge strength” focused than Lairo, so they decide to keep the peace and vote her out in case she betrays them at a swap.


No tribe would vote out a strong physical player this early, right? Well you know who once did that? A man named Boston Rob. And with Boston Rob as a mentor this season- even though 90% of the players don’t realize that he’s acting in that capacity- they’re going to be motivated to emulate their mentor. That’s why Aaron is going home this week.

The other tribe is going to emulate Sandra, and vote out anyone but themselves. Unless they are Noura. In which case that won’t be possible, because she can’t vote for herself. But everyone else can. And will.


Purple: Well that was fun. RIP my winner pick in a BIG MOVEZ era. The tribe dynamic is shuffled so making an educated guess is tough, so let’s say Jamal because he either a.) is less important to Tommy than Jack or b.) he oversleeps for Tribal and gets left on the boat.

Lairo: Aaron did himself no favors in his talk with Missy last week. If there’s not a swap, he’s the odd man out.


Lairo: On the podcast I predicted it would be Vince on the basis that I thought the women would stick together but would be hesitant to lose Aaron’s muscle. However, by the end of my prediction i was wavering and was on the fence and now I am fully off the fence. I think Aaron is gone. I think the reasons to keep Aaron are outweighed by the seeming certainty he will betray anyone left from Lairo. Also I think Tom, Vince and Dean are all working closely with the women on the tribe and kicking one of them off instead will cause a great deal of hesitation. So Aaron is the pick.

Vokai: This is gonna ping-pong back and hit Noura I’m predicting. Just don’t think they will keep the same two people on the outside, and I think Jamal has game. I think he is able to work his way back in and move a target onto Noura.

Andy Brad Emma John
Mark Matt
2nd Boot Noura Tommy Noura Dan Noura Kellee Noura
Lairo 3rd Boot Karishma Karishma Aaron Aaron Aaron Aaron
Vokai 3rd Boot Lauren Noura Noura Noura Jamal Noura

Your Turn

Time to vote for the next person to go

Who will be the next to go from Lairo?

  • Aaron (42% Votes)
  • Vince (34% Votes)
  • Karishma (13% Votes)
  • Tom (4% Votes)
  • Chelsea (3% Votes)
  • Dean (1% Votes)
  • Elaine (1% Votes)
  • Elizabeth (0% Votes)
  • Missy (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 67

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Who will be the next to go from Vokai?

  • Noura (58% Votes)
  • Jamal (27% Votes)
  • Dan (6% Votes)
  • Jack (3% Votes)
  • Lauren (3% Votes)
  • Jason (2% Votes)
  • Kellee (2% Votes)
  • Janet (0% Votes)
  • Tommy (0% Votes)

Total Voters: 66

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